Tesla stock price

[JulianWilliams]

Tesla's stock price is going through the floor. It has lost a significant percentage of its value since September. I suppose it's due to the lower price of oil, which makes switching to electric vehicles less attractive. Would you invest in Tesla stock at the moment? I wouldn't. I think they're seriously over valued due to all the Sillicon Valley fanbois.

[Drew Dowdell]

I do believe in Tesla as a car and as a company, but I do think the stock was seriously overvalued.

 

It may turn into a good stock buy in the next 6 months though if it continues on its current trend.... eventually it will be worth more than the stock price.

[David]

I believe the company is here for the long haul and has respectable products. Stock price is currently over valued in relation to product depth. Like Drew states, eventually it will get to the proper price to performance ratio.

[JulianWilliams]

I'm not sure what to make of them. They've spent a lot of cash and time to develop their cars but does that mean they're now technologically ahead of other manufacturers or does that mean that they had no clue what they were doing in the first place which meant it took them a lot of time to achieve what they've achieved. I mean if the car giants would really get into EVs they'd probably swipe the floor with Tesla. I'm not sure a small manufacturer like them really has much of a chance long term going head to head with the big boys.

[David]

Tesla night not be in the auto business long term if his battery plant takes off in building battery packs for other auto companies as here he is ahead of many companies. So it will be interesting to see what happens with Tesla.

 

Having a 400 mile range battery pack is far ahead of everyone else. So if he can produce this in quantity at a proper price point, then he will end up making money and he can stick to his 100K dollar auto's while everyone else builds variety of lower priced auto's that he supplies the battery packs for.

 

I doubt GM would want to buy battery packs from him since they have invested so much in the volt system but who knows, you get to a point where eventually you buy up your small competitor and I am sure Tesla would sell at a profit.

[balthazar]

Tesla does seem to be overvalued. They've lost money every year:

$56M in '09

$154M in '10

$254M in '11

$396M in '12

$74M in '13

and $187M thru Q3 in '14

 

Stock is down from it's high of 291/share to 205 today. Clearly, investors are extending great future confidence in the company, and that's not necc. misplaced IMO, but the future market share is unknown and the losses are piling up high. Stock IPO'd at $19, didn't hit $50 until April of '13, no doubt based primarily on greatly LESSER losses at that point (but still no profit).

 

IMO, the entire future of the company is riding on the upcoming Model X. The current business case is not sustainable long-term. This is a new niche WRT investor patience and they have a seemingly very nice product. Very high risk from the stock standpoint, IMO.

Edited January 26, 2015 by balthazar

[David]

Interesting, Their web site http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx used to have a ton of details about the Model X including pictures of the gull wing rear doors, you could build one with colors and interior, etc. but now the whole web site has been updated. You no longer have access to the roadster section and the only place you have details is on the Model S. Makes one wonder what is going on in the Tesla Camp when you can no longer get details about a specific model.

[Drew Dowdell]

I'm wondering if you misspoke Balth?  Did you mean the Model 3?  The Model 3 is the $35,000 base price sedan.  The Model X is the gull wing SUV... and that was predicted to be in the $50k - $60k range. 

[hyperv6]

Tesla  has been way over values for a long time.

 

The issues are many.

 

#1 they need to continue to expand production at a great rate and as of now things are slowing down with the X model late and the 3 model that is not going to be ready till 2017 if even then.

#2 to meet the numbers they want to build they will need more plant. The Fremont plant was free and the next plant they will have to pay for it. Lower stocks will hurt this plan.

 

#3 They need the cars to increase in production to help take the capacity of the Reno battery plant.

 

There are several other deltas that they will face and it get tougher from here on out. Even things like the S model will need refreshed as you can not leave it styling wise and interior wise rot like GM has so many models in the past. At its price point the added electric motors and AWD will fade fast as the car will still look the same.

 

Also you can tell when Elon has issues as he goes public and talks about tube transportation and other wacko ideas to distract his zealot followers and investors from disturbing news.

 

I hope Tesla makes it as if they do collapse they could do a lot of damage to the EV market if the other MFG's have not gotten their new product out that they are working on now. While this market is not going to replace gas it is needed to supplement the market so we can still have fun gas cars.

 

Elon is playing big odds here and if things do go bad it will go fast and in a chain reaction. He will walk away as he has his assets protected but many people could lose out and it will hurt future investment.

 

While he has things built on large and fast growth it makes me uncomfortable as this is a slow growth segment. Building the 3 model will be the greatest challenge he will ever face. Even more than trying to land rocket on a barge and that did not go well either. His wife left him the same week too. Not a good week.

 

The thing we all must do is watch the company and not Elon. He is the master of control with the web marketing and had done a damn good job. But at some point the talk stops and the show me comes do. His time is coming in the next couple years. If he can keep spinning this he may make it but if not the market will crush the company if they walk away fast. Then the Battery company may be at odds unless they can find a place for the batteries they do not use.

 

Then there is the matter with the dealers. That one will be a hot potato for a good while longer.

 

knowing now it is easy to sell a car at the higher price point it is easy but the 3 at the much lower price point will leave little wiggle room for anything to go wrong. If it were easy we would not have the Prius or Volt now.

[David]

Chevy Bolt could be the Little Engine that Could and end up hurting Tesla. My gut tells me Tesla will end up a supplier to the large auto companies and someone will buy up his portfolio to use it in new auto's where they can deliver a wide spread of product and recover the costs for a profit.

[balthazar]

I'm wondering if you misspoke Balth?  Did you mean the Model 3?  The Model 3 is the $35,000 base price sedan.  The Model X is the gull wing SUV... and that was predicted to be in the $50k - $60k range. 

I did; I meant the upcoming $35K car. I don't pay much attention to the company's news (tho I see a ton of Model S's around, nearly daily).

 

It's going to be called the 'Model 3'???? For Pete's sake. 

[Drew Dowdell]

I'm not 100% sure that's going to be the name... that is just how it is being referred to in the press currently.  There has been no display of such a car as of yet. 

[balthazar]

gotcha. Either way, an affordable model is critical for revenue. Hope there's a decent profit in the car @ $35K...

[Drew Dowdell]

Well there are a few hints as to where Tesla is going.   The front motor in the double motor Model S can be plucked out and used in the rear of a smaller/cheaper car.   I have a feeling that we could be seeing the preview of what is to come already. 

[David]

Missed this news from Nov 5th of last year. Their SUV was pushed back to 3rd quarter release at the earliest to allow for more quality testing.

 

http://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-delays-model-x-suv-to-spend-more-time-testing/#!

 

This does explain why their web site has changed so much. Wonder what has forced them to push back? Clearly something did not go right in crash testing, reliability or something. That is a negative in the short term.

 

I see in this same story CEO says they will ship 2000 fewer S models due to upgrades on the assembly line taking longer than expected during last summer. 

 

Seems plenty of excuses to explain delays and shortfalls.

 

Interesting story just released on why the Chevy Bolt will not beat the Tesla Model 3 but it is so vague that the only point I see is the gigafactory helping everyone including tesla.

 

http://www.bidnessetc.com/33325-heres-why-chevy-bolt-will-never-match-up-to-tesla-motors-inc-model-3/

 

Another story just released last week about the Model 3 and how they hope it is not pushed back multiple times like the Model X as that makes it's release some time in 2018 not 2017 like the Chevy Bolt. Here the wonder is if Tesla can stay up with the big boys once they start producing.

 

http://mashable.com/2015/01/14/tesla-model-3-price/

 

The next 3 years are going to be very interesting to see what really happens with the drop in oil and natural gas, both petrol and CNG auto's have gotten cheaper to drive so it could push off the EV race.

[JulianWilliams]

Tesla night not be in the auto business long term if his battery plant takes off in building battery packs for other auto companies as here he is ahead of many companies. So it will be interesting to see what happens with Tesla.

 

Having a 400 mile range battery pack is far ahead of everyone else. So if he can produce this in quantity at a proper price point, then he will end up making money and he can stick to his 100K dollar auto's while everyone else builds variety of lower priced auto's that he supplies the battery packs for.

 

I doubt GM would want to buy battery packs from him since they have invested so much in the volt system but who knows, you get to a point where eventually you buy up your small competitor and I am sure Tesla would sell at a profit.

 

Yeah, they're supposed to double the global lithium-ion battery production which should bring the cost of such batteries down, but if that would prove to be such a profitable venture there'd soon be a lot of competitors from China getting in as well. Batteries are more likely to be commodities rather than premium products IMO and the US can't really compete in such a market with producers from countries wil much lower workforce costs.

[JulianWilliams]

Have any of you tried shorting their stock? Is anyone lending stock or is the market pretty much in agreeent that the price will continue to go down? I think a realistic value of their stock should be somewhere around 30$ but the Silican Valley IT hippies have pored so much money into Tesla they've seriously denaturated its true value.

[David]

 

Tesla night not be in the auto business long term if his battery plant takes off in building battery packs for other auto companies as here he is ahead of many companies. So it will be interesting to see what happens with Tesla.

 

Having a 400 mile range battery pack is far ahead of everyone else. So if he can produce this in quantity at a proper price point, then he will end up making money and he can stick to his 100K dollar auto's while everyone else builds variety of lower priced auto's that he supplies the battery packs for.

 

I doubt GM would want to buy battery packs from him since they have invested so much in the volt system but who knows, you get to a point where eventually you buy up your small competitor and I am sure Tesla would sell at a profit.

 

Yeah, they're supposed to double the global lithium-ion battery production which should bring the cost of such batteries down, but if that would prove to be such a profitable venture there'd soon be a lot of competitors from China getting in as well. Batteries are more likely to be commodities rather than premium products IMO and the US can't really compete in such a market with producers from countries wil much lower workforce costs.

 

Except where you automate the assembly system so you do not need much labor. Ten you can easily compete and China is no longer the world low cost leader of labor. They have a growing middle class that is demanding pay and benefits and like India is no longer the cheapest place to assemble cheap products.

[Drew Dowdell]

The biggest cost in batteries is in the materials, which China at the moment has a head start on.

[David]

The biggest cost in batteries is in the materials, which China at the moment has a head start on.

Very True, China has been buying up and trying to lock in materials at a very low cost.

[balthazar]

Tesla lost a total of 308 million for 2014. They only managed to move 120 vehicles in China in January.

 

They need billions to continued to even tread water.

 

People are -inexplicably- going to just be SHOCKED when dire financial situations rear up (not excluding bankruptcy).
That happens and Tesla finds the mountain they're climbing just quadrupled in size. 

 

- - - - - 

Just learned Teslas are NOT sold in my state, yet I still see them just about daily. I don't have anything like a 'regular commute' (either time slots or routes), so I'm sure I'm seeing different cars. Saw a red S this morning.

[dariel2323]

I do not buy at the moment. There is not a clear trend, it's a rises and falls. Tesla Motors Inc is a good company that, over time, has been growing much. I have faith that the future will be one of the manufacturers stronger. To my particularly like electric cars, more technology, more clean, this is the future.

Edited February 20, 2015 by dariel2323