Chinese may not come to US afterall, well.... Not yet.

[Diehard GrandPrix Fan]

According to this new article(dated yesterday), Chery, the Chinese Automaker, seems to have shifted their goal from exporting their cars to the US to Southeast Asia instead. I guess they didn't want to improve their cars to meet US regulations and target the less important market first. That, and other Chery news can be found here:

http://www.chinacartimes.com/category/chery-automobile/

Sure, it's only talking about Cheris, but we may see other Chinese brand making it to the US. You never know.

[regfootball]

well, the toy debacle has spooked so many people here, 'baby just licked thomas the train and keeled over dead, why not go driving in a CHinese car and die too!'

[Robert Hall]

Perhaps whenever the Chinese makers do come here, it will involve Wal-Mart.... they will probably set up an arrangement to sell Chinese cars under one of their store brands (I can see it now--- Puritan subcompact sedans, Great Value SUVs, and Sam' Choice pickups). Or how about Costco Kirkland brand Chinese cars?

[Guest aatbloke]

It's really not a case of if, but when ... and we're likely to see a very fast learning curve indeed. Anyone who underestimates the Chinese does so at their peril.

[Robert Hall]

It's really not a case of if, but when ... and we're likely to see a very fast learning curve indeed. Anyone who underestimates the Chinese does so at their peril.

Agreed...it took the Koreans roughly 20 years to reach the Japanese standard in the US, China will probably be able to do it in 10 or less...

[Blake Noble]

Who is complaining? I know I'm not.

[Guest aatbloke]

Who is complaining? I know I'm not.

No complaints here ... I welcome them. More competition only ups the ante and provides better quality cars for everyone.

[pow]

Agreed...it took the Koreans roughly 20 years to reach the Japanese standard in the US, China will probably be able to do it in 10 or less...

... especially when there are so many foreign joint-venture factories already in China. When you consider how the Chinese have a 70% domestic parts content requirement to avoid tariffs on domestic-made vehicles, it's no surprise to see Accord (BYD F6) and Corolla (F3) clones popping up everywhere.

With the US auto market slowing down, and the Chinese market booming, they might as well concentrate at home...

http://www.chinacartimes.com/2008/03/27/saic-profit-up-242/

SAIC top brass are probably kicking themselves that they didnt stick a bid in for Landrover and Jaguar, after a record breaking 2007 they can easily afford it!

In 2007 SAIC sold 1.69 million vehicles, which translates into a 25.8% year on year increase on 2006. Profit in RMB was 4.63 billion RMB. Of the 1.69 million vehicles sold, 1.13 million were automobiles.

Sales with its joint venture partners worked out as follows: GM sold 508,380 vehicles, and VW 456,424. SAIC’s minivan and truck making ventures, SAIC-GM-Wuling and SAIC-Iveco Hongyan each sold 520,000 and 24,000 vehicles. Some more good news for SAIC bosses are that sales at its Korean owned manufacturer, Ssangyong, are up 13%. Ssangyong sold 136,000 vehicles in 07, a respectable figure for essentially a niche market player.

SAIC is planning to push the goal posts even further in 2008, with them planning to sell 1.9 million vehicles. Can they meet those targets? Possibly, the Chinese Car Industry shows no signs of slowing just yet.

[Intrepidation]

No complaints here ... I welcome them. More competition only ups the ante and provides better quality cars for everyone.

I think he meant "who's complaining that they are NOT coming?".

I'm not, competition is all well and good but 1.) There's plenty of it already 2.) We have to put up with enough cheap Chinese crap. 3.) You can bet the first round of Chinese vehicles that do eventually make it hear will be deathtraps with more quality problems than the worst 80's Domestic or the worst Jaguar.

Don't forget the lead in the paint.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Dodgefan

[SuperSport623]

Don't forget the lead in the paint.

stop licking your car and i think THAT problem will be solved :AH-HA_wink:

[Intrepidation]

stop licking your car and i think THAT problem will be solved :AH-HA_wink:

Hey at least I'm not trying to fondle the dash!

[balthazar]

I agree with Dodgefan: competition improves overall quality (in theory at least) when the new competition IS competitive... bringing a new LCD into the field will not improve anything above it. When a chinese circular saw guard falls off and the blade rips open the operator's leg, what, exactly is DeWalt or Mikita going to change on their saw, which does not have that problem and never did?

In this day & age, especially with the broad, reaching assumption the chinese are able to be competitive globally, there is no excuse for the blatant negligence & intentional subterfugue going on in today's chinese design & manufacturing. It's amazing what people are willing to consider: perhaps the idea of putting human sewage in cooking lard simply never occurred to anyone over there as a bad idea, you know, because they're 'still coming out of their 3rd World coccoon' (unless, of course, you know... it was intentional).

>>"Anyone who underestimates the Chinese does so at their peril."<<

What about those who judge chinese manufacturing from factual instances ??

The Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled 447 products sold in the U.S. in 2007, and 298 were from good ol' China. That's 67%. In 2006, china-made goods were recalled 221 times, or 47% of all recalls- so they're getting better at being the worst. Lead poisoning was targeted in the U.S. in the 1970s.... and here is china reintroducing lethal amounts in children's toys almost 40 years later. A simple 'teething mistake' (no pun intended)?

You can chose to believe that if you like, but it seems clear that simply encountering chinese goods is "done at one's peril".

>>"it took the Koreans roughly 20 years to reach the Japanese standard in the US, China will probably be able to do it in 10 or less..."<<

YOU go buy their stuff, you're welcome to it. I'm already done with everything from there.

This weekend I twisted three (chinese) 5/16th lag bolts in half screwing them into predrilled fast-growth pine. I am now forced to save all hardware older than roughly 20 yrs old, so I can have dependable supplies on hand, becasue most all of what's commonly available is now made in china.

But don't miss it --> This new competitor to the fastener market did NOT improve the quality of other manufacturers, it simply undercut their marketshare with slave-labor manufacturing costs and drove the quality makers out of general circulation (or business!) altogether.

In other words, chinese product LOWERED the segment's quality. Guess that pretty much f**ks the ol' textbook theory, don't it?

So yeah, let's bring the world's worst here so some more domestic manufacturers can shutter their factories... and we can have some more space for important things.... like more coffee houses & bookstores !!!!!!!!!

[thegriffon]

I agree with Dodgefan: competition improves overall quality (in theory at least) when the new competition IS competitive... bringing a new LCD into the field will not improve anything above it. When a chinese circular saw guard falls off and the blade rips open the operator's leg, what, exactly is DeWalt or Mikita going to change on their saw, which does not have that problem and never did?

In this day & age, especially with the broad, reaching assumption the chinese are able to be competitive globally, there is no excuse for the blatant negligence & intentional subterfugue going on in today's chinese design & manufacturing. It's amazing what people are willing to consider: perhaps the idea of putting human sewage in cooking lard simply never occurred to anyone over there as a bad idea, you know, because they're 'still coming out of their 3rd World coccoon' (unless, of course, you know... it was intentional).

>>"Anyone who underestimates the Chinese does so at their peril."<<

What about those who judge chinese manufacturing from factual instances ??

The Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled 447 products sold in the U.S. in 2007, and 298 were from good ol' China. That's 67%. In 2006, china-made goods were recalled 221 times, or 47% of all recalls- so they're getting better at being the worst. Lead poisoning was targeted in the U.S. in the 1970s.... and here is china reintroducing lethal amounts in children's toys almost 40 years later. A simple 'teething mistake' (no pun intended)?

You can chose to believe that if you like, but it seems clear that simply encountering chinese goods is "done at one's peril".

>>"it took the Koreans roughly 20 years to reach the Japanese standard in the US, China will probably be able to do it in 10 or less..."<<

YOU go buy their stuff, you're welcome to it. I'm already done with everything from there.

This weekend I twisted three (chinese) 5/16th lag bolts in half screwing them into predrilled fast-growth pine. I am now forced to save all hardware older than roughly 20 yrs old, so I can have dependable supplies on hand, because most all of what's commonly available (retail) is now made in china.

But don't miss it --> This new competitor to the fastener market did NOT improve the quality of other manufacturers, it simply undercut their marketshare with slave-labor manufacturing costs and drove the quality makers out of general circulation (or business!) altogether.

In other words, chinese product LOWERED the segment's quality. Guess that pretty much f**ks the ol' textbook theory, don't it?

So yeah, let's bring the world's worst here so some more domestic manufacturers can shutter their factories... and we can have some more space for important things.... like more coffee houses & bookstores !!!!!!!!!

The Chinese cost advantage, and their technical ability, is over-rated, but there is immense pressure on suppliers to come in with the lowest possible quote, so as you go further down the food chain, the pressure and temptation to cut corners creates situations like these. Many enterprises are on the brink of going completely pear-shaped, operating for years with unsustainable losses. In many cases Chinese companies may have missed their opportunity—the cost of shipping products long distances is about to skyrocket—if you haven't already eliminated local competition in export markets, you will no longer be able to compete with them.

[Robert Hall]

The Chinese cost advantage, and their technical ability, is over-rated, but there is immense pressure on suppliers to come in with the lowest possible quote, so as you go further down the food chain, the pressure and temptation to cut corners creates situations like these. Many enterprises are on the brink of going completely pear-shaped, operating for years with unsustainable losses. In many cases Chinese companies may have missed their opportunity—the cost of shipping products long distances is about to skyrocket—if you haven't already eliminated local competition in export markets, you will no longer be able to compete with them.

Unfortunately, what is the choice for the consumer? It seems everything (consumer products) sold at Wal-Mart, Ace, Home Depot, etc is made in China and manufacturing in the US is by and large dead or dying. I don't see any way of undoing the damage that has been done over the last 3 or so decades...

[CARBIZ]

Unfortunately, what is the choice for the consumer? It seems everything (consumer products) sold at Wal-Mart, Ace, Home Depot, etc is made in China and manufacturing in the US is by and large dead or dying. I don't see any way of undoing the damage that has been done over the last 3 or so decades...

Exactly. I see calls for a growing backlash against Chinese imported products, but the scary truth is that many products are simply not made here any more. I searched for over a month to replace my 30 year old Airtemp window a/c unit for a North American made one, and simply could not do it. I had a Chinese made blender stop working after 3 years (replaced my mother's 35 year old blender), an RCA Cd clock radio (made in China) break down after 2 years and the switch on my Chinese made electric frying pan broke after 6 months (it still works, so far.) I don't care if the products are half the price of the ones they replaced: they are no bargain if they have to be replaced every 3-5 years. These type of appliances should last decades.

But wait - there is hope. As of 2006, China surpassed the good ol' USA as the #1 emitter of carbon in the world. As of today, China emits 9% more carbon than the U.S. They have more coal-fired power plants than the U.S., UK and India combined. In fact, they have plans of building another 560 coal-fired plants by 2012. If only $45 a tonne of carbon dioxide (about the going rate in Europe right now) is levied against China, that would raise $55 billion from Chinese exports to the U.S. alone - equivalent to a 17% tarrif.

Suddenly, I am seeing this whole carbon trading scheme in a new light. Could the greenies inadvertantly be scheming with the politicos to grab back our manufacturing plants? Think about it: coupled with triple digit oil prices (that greatly add to the cost of shipping across the Pacific) and suddenly cheap labour no longer is the over-riding factor in off-shoring factories. Carbon trading would be the over-riding factor. The Chinese have absolutely no interest in cutting emissions or worrying about such trivial things like fish hatcheries. They are decades behind us in those areas.

I am looking at KYOTO and other proposals in a new light. Maybe there is hope after all.

[enzl]

The Chinese are already here.

The 'nox & Torrent have had Chinese engines for years...what are the failure rates for those items? IIRC, they're fine.

All this fear mongering and anger over some products that weren't being supervised and tested by American Companies that should know better--

The Chinese are already part of your lives--just glance around your home--YOU let them in! Cars are just the next step. The good news is that this capitalist path they're taking will mean, eventually, 1 Billion more free peoples--so, all in all, it'll probably be just fine.

US will invent more stuff--or maybe get off of foreign energy, finally--and we'll all be fine.

[Guest aatbloke]

>>"Anyone who underestimates the Chinese does so at their peril."<<

What about those who judge chinese manufacturing from factual instances ??

The Consumer Product Safety Commission recalled 447 products sold in the U.S. in 2007, and 298 were from good ol' China. That's 67%. In 2006, china-made goods were recalled 221 times, or 47% of all recalls- so they're getting better at being the worst. Lead poisoning was targeted in the U.S. in the 1970s.... and here is china reintroducing lethal amounts in children's toys almost 40 years later. A simple 'teething mistake' (no pun intended)?

You can chose to believe that if you like, but it seems clear that simply encountering chinese goods is "done at one's peril".

You have your head in the sand, and I can understand why. The Japanese' learning curve took thirty years to incur some real damage to the US car industry. The Koreans took some twenty-five years to inflict further damage. The Chinese - with the sheer variety of car manufacturers and qickly improving products such as the latest Geely GT and Roewe 550 could see a similar learning curve of just a decade, and which has the ability to inflict terminal damage. You're scared to death.

When we look at facts, a booming economy, a massive new road infrastructure, and partnerships with numerous western companies will provide the Chinese with teething troubles the likes of which you've listed, but that's a drop in the ocean in the overall scheme of things ... ultimately they have a very strong foundation and the potential to change the entire face of the global automotive industry.

Edited March 28, 2008 by aatbloke

[Camino LS6]

The Chinese are already here.

The 'nox & Torrent have had Chinese engines for years...what are the failure rates for those items? IIRC, they're fine.

All this fear mongering and anger over some products that weren't being supervised and tested by American Companies that should know better--

The Chinese are already part of your lives--just glance around your home--YOU let them in! Cars are just the next step. The good news is that this capitalist path they're taking will mean, eventually, 1 Billion more free peoples--so, all in all, it'll probably be just fine.

US will invent more stuff--or maybe get off of foreign energy, finally--and we'll all be fine.

Wow!

Even when you are optimistic, we disagree.

Seriously though, I see Chinese cars as having a huge uphill battle to even gain a foothold here. China's rep is bad and getting worse all of the time for just about everything they make and ship here - they suffer from a (well-deserved) perception as purveyors of low-quality products to a degree equal to Japan's (less well-deserved) positive perception.

Also, the North American automobile market is already way too crowded as it is. The Chinese will have to wait for a better opportunity to enter it. The exception could be products with American, Japanese, or European names which are built under strict supervision by those foreign companies using cheap Chinese labor. The foreign companies know how to produce cars which can survive in the NA market, The Chinese do not.

[AxelTheRed]

Keep 'em out. The last thing this country needs are more producuts that increase our trade deficit to China.

Though, in honesty, I don't know a single person who would even want a Chinese car...at least right now. The same was said about the Japanese and Koreans.

[Robert Hall]

Keep 'em out. The last thing this country needs are more producuts that increase our trade deficit to China.

Though, in honesty, I don't know a single person who would even want a Chinese car...at least right now. The same was said about the Japanese and Koreans.

When they come, they probably will use the same angle that Hyundai did when they first came to the US...very cheap, basic cars for those that can't afford a new car. Indian cars are coming also (Mahindra trucks and SUVs first).

[Camino LS6]

When they come, they probably will use the same angle that Hyundai did when they first came to the US...very cheap, basic cars for those that can't afford a new car. Indian cars are coming also (Mahindra trucks and SUVs first).

And I believe they will succeed.

[Intrepidation]

I'd rather buy a used Domestic, Japanese, or European car than a new Chinese POS.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Dodgefan

[Robert Hall]

I'd rather buy a used Domestic, Japanese, or European car than a new Chinese POS.

Yes, but there are a lot of people out there that would rather have a new car with a warranty than a used car..

Edited March 28, 2008 by moltar

[LosAngeles]

When a chinese circular saw guard falls off and the blade rips open the operator's leg

OK, that made me feel good about life.

[Intrepidation]

It's very sad how little is Made in USA these days. One of the last product lines that still are made in America are Craftmans tools and products. It's long been their calling card. A few weeks ago however, I discovered that their less expensive toolboxes (which were still more expensive than say, Black ad Decker) are now made in Mexico. It's very sad.

[Guest aatbloke]

It's very sad how little is Made in USA these days. One of the last product lines that still are made in America are Craftmans tools and products. It's long been their calling card. A few weeks ago however, I discovered that their less expensive toolboxes (which were still more expensive than say, Black ad Decker) are now made in Mexico. It's very sad.

You have to blame the consumer. If in America they could build a C-segment mass-market car and cover all the costs necessary to support that country's way of life, and have its consumers be prepared to pay $25K-$30K as a result for a bread-and-butter model, there wouldn't be a problem.

[Intrepidation]

You have to blame the consumer. If in America they could build a C-segment mass-market car and cover all the costs necessary to support that country's way of life, and have its consumers be prepared to pay $25K-$30K as a result for a bread-and-butter model, there wouldn't be a problem.

The problem is, as you and others have said, that we're just too cheap. We want the most for the least, so in order to cater to that things are outsourced and the quality goes down. I personally am willing to pay a little, or even a far chunk more, for something made in America, or wherever the quality is good, than paying less for something that will break in a few years. Most people just don't care though, we're a disposable society, we don't hang on to things, we always want a deal on the latest and greatest.

If there's one valid point the Think About It Hyundai adds made is "What happened to commitment?"

[Guest aatbloke]

The problem is, as you and others have said, that we're just too cheap. We want the most for the least, so in order to cater to that things are outsourced and the quality goes down. I personally am willing to pay a little, or even a far chunk more, for something made in America, or wherever the quality is good, than paying less for something that will break in a few years. Most people just don't care though, we're a disposable society, we don't hang on to things, we always want a deal on the latest and greatest.

If there's one valid point the Think About It Hyundai adds made is "What happened to commitment?"

I think most of us in the western world are cheap these days. We've become victims of our own success.

[PurdueGuy]

One of the last product lines that still are made in America are Craftmans tools and products. It's long been their calling card.

Look at some more of the Craftsman product. Most if not all the power tools are made in other countries, and many other items. Most of the hand tools are still made in the US, but the rest is hit & miss.

[Intrepidation]

[enzl]

Wow!

Even when you are optimistic, we disagree.

Seriously though, I see Chinese cars as having a huge uphill battle to even gain a foothold here. China's rep is bad and getting worse all of the time for just about everything they make and ship here - they suffer from a (well-deserved) perception as purveyors of low-quality products to a degree equal to Japan's (less well-deserved) positive perception.

Also, the North American automobile market is already way too crowded as it is. The Chinese will have to wait for a better opportunity to enter it. The exception could be products with American, Japanese, or European names which are built under strict supervision by those foreign companies using cheap Chinese labor. The foreign companies know how to produce cars which can survive in the NA market, The Chinese do not.

Maybe I'm just a little older than you, but I remember when Made in Japan or Korea meant 'cheap, disposable' products.

There's no reason to believe that 'Made in China' will be any different. I've driven a Chinese car---it's bad, but I could see 10 years of development closing most of the gap--I also believe that American ingenuity will trump all of the rest of the issues created.

Look at companies like Apple or Microsoft, not the Detroit 2.8 when considering our chances. That's why I'm constantly carping about RW---he's a GM lifer that hasn't done anything else. How does that prepare you for the New World of business? Answer: It doesn't & GM has shown how unprepared they are, repeatedly.

Edited March 28, 2008 by enzl

[thegriffon]

When they come, they probably will use the same angle that Hyundai did when they first came to the US...very cheap, basic cars for those that can't afford a new car. Indian cars are coming also (Mahindra trucks and SUVs first).

I wouldn't hold your breath. The company bringing them in isn't exactly a well-established vehicle distributor. Their "established network" is the one they organized to sell Chinese vehicles which didn't materialize.

[CARBIZ]

Maybe I'm just a little older than you, but I remember when Made in Japan or Korea meant 'cheap, disposable' products.

There's no reason to believe that 'Made in China' will be any different. I've driven a Chinese car---it's bad, but I could see 10 years of development closing most of the gap--I also believe that American ingenuity will trump all of the rest of the issues created.

Look at companies like Apple or Microsoft, not the Detroit 2.8 when considering our chances. That's why I'm constantly carping about RW---he's a GM lifer that hasn't done anything else. How does that prepare you for the New World of business? Answer: It doesn't & GM has shown how unprepared they are, repeatedly.

Japanese products were never as horrible as the Chinese products are. I will agree that Made in Japan would have evoked derision and laughter 40 years ago, but I don't remember Japanese products having the wholesale flimsiness and downright criminal cheapness of the Chinese made products washing up on these shores now. I have had countless kitchen and other products break or stop working after 2 or 3 years. I had a 'cheap' Japanese made cassette deck when I was a kid that I used and abused for years.

Besides, there was a time when you could CHOOSE between a cheap, Japanese made product or a better (more expensive) North American made one. I challenge people on this board to go shopping (and not just Wal-Mart), but Sears and other places - entire segments of consumer products are EXCLUSIVELY made in China now. I have done so. I looked for weeks for my portable a/c unit and for a replacement for my crappy blender - everything is made over there now. Where is the choice in that?

I would pay DOUBLE to buy a microwave or blender or whatever that was manufactured here. That is not an option. (I saw one Cuisinart food processor that was $230 and did a lot more than my lowly cooking required - it was made in the States. I said I would pay DOUBLE, not QUINTUPLE.)

[enzl]

Japanese products were never as horrible as the Chinese products are. I will agree that Made in Japan would have evoked derision and laughter 40 years ago, but I don't remember Japanese products having the wholesale flimsiness and downright criminal cheapness of the Chinese made products washing up on these shores now. I have had countless kitchen and other products break or stop working after 2 or 3 years. I had a 'cheap' Japanese made cassette deck when I was a kid that I used and abused for years.

Besides, there was a time when you could CHOOSE between a cheap, Japanese made product or a better (more expensive) North American made one. I challenge people on this board to go shopping (and not just Wal-Mart), but Sears and other places - entire segments of consumer products are EXCLUSIVELY made in China now. I have done so. I looked for weeks for my portable a/c unit and for a replacement for my crappy blender - everything is made over there now. Where is the choice in that?

I would pay DOUBLE to buy a microwave or blender or whatever that was manufactured here. That is not an option. (I saw one Cuisinart food processor that was $230 and did a lot more than my lowly cooking required - it was made in the States. I said I would pay DOUBLE, not QUINTUPLE.)

Not all Chinese products are bad. IBM sold their laptop division to the Chinese--and the quality is fine. Some of the leading tech in batteries for computers and cell phones are from Chinese companies. Personally, my grandfather started factories in China that produce world class umbrellas---actually, they've been making them for 30+ years--for very high-line brands. So, I think it's unfair to paint all Chinese products with the same brush.

Additionally, if we're going to blame the Chinese for the consumer products you have discussed, you must first blame the Western Brands that have plastered their names all over the sh!t being offered today.

All of that being said, I think the fear of the Chinese is simply not grounded in reality. Should we sell our souls to them? of course not. But I would apply that maxim to any outside country.

The US public needs to reassess its priorities--but blaming the Chinese for that is simply wrong.

[CARBIZ]

I would paint all the Chinese companies with the same brush, but it broke (Made in PRC, of course.)

[Intrepidation]

My friend had a Dell Laptop...the screen stopped working on it. Just an ironic observation. I personally don't care for Dells in general, regardless of where they are made.

Edited March 28, 2008 by Dodgefan

[Robert Hall]

Japanese products were never as horrible as the Chinese products are. I will agree that Made in Japan would have evoked derision and laughter 40 years ago, but I don't remember Japanese products having the wholesale flimsiness and downright criminal cheapness of the Chinese made products washing up on these shores now. I have had countless kitchen and other products break or stop working after 2 or 3 years. I had a 'cheap' Japanese made cassette deck when I was a kid that I used and abused for years.

Besides, there was a time when you could CHOOSE between a cheap, Japanese made product or a better (more expensive) North American made one. I challenge people on this board to go shopping (and not just Wal-Mart), but Sears and other places - entire segments of consumer products are EXCLUSIVELY made in China now. I have done so. I looked for weeks for my portable a/c unit and for a replacement for my crappy blender - everything is made over there now. Where is the choice in that?

I would pay DOUBLE to buy a microwave or blender or whatever that was manufactured here. That is not an option. (I saw one Cuisinart food processor that was $230 and did a lot more than my lowly cooking required - it was made in the States. I said I would pay DOUBLE, not QUINTUPLE.)

I can definitely remember when Korean stuff was pretty bad--20 years ago, Hyundais were a poor choice relative to a 3 yr old used Honda, IMHO. I also remember when Korean VCRs and home electronics were a poor choice relative to Japanese (i.e. I remember comparing a Sony VCR to a Goldstar and getting the Sony....I have 10-15 yr old Sony and Yamaha home theatre components that are still in fine working order (receivers, VCR, DVD player, cassette deck, record player). (I have a buddy that has 40 yr old Marantz equipment that works great, but those were super high end back in the day). My 20 yr old Sony Walkman still probably works (haven't used it in years, though).

I'd love to find TVs, computers, etc made in the US, but I'm not holding my breath..I have no idea where my iPod, MacBook, Toshiba HDTV, etc were made, but I bet it's not in the US..

Or clothes...looking in my closet at shirt labels is like looking at a list of UN countries... my shoes are Danish and Italian brands mostly, but I have no idea if they were actually made in Europe.

Cars seem to be the last big category of consumer goods still designed and manufactured in the US..

Edited March 28, 2008 by moltar

[Camino LS6]

Maybe I'm just a little older than you, but I remember when Made in Japan or Korea meant 'cheap, disposable' products.

There's no reason to believe that 'Made in China' will be any different. I've driven a Chinese car---it's bad, but I could see 10 years of development closing most of the gap--I also believe that American ingenuity will trump all of the rest of the issues created.

Look at companies like Apple or Microsoft, not the Detroit 2.8 when considering our chances. That's why I'm constantly carping about RW---he's a GM lifer that hasn't done anything else. How does that prepare you for the New World of business? Answer: It doesn't & GM has shown how unprepared they are, repeatedly.

I doubt you have any age on me (I'm 44), and I also remember "made in Japan = junk".

I just think that the Chinese will have a more difficult time in our market for several reasons.

- They are used to making junk and getting away with it, even outright copies are viewed as legitimate products.

- They have shot themselves in the foot with the dangerous stuff they've been caught sending here.

- Their communist leadership is still a liability in many ways.

- Their tech is still way behind.

- The current flap over Tibet isn't doing them any favors.

As for us, we certainly have a good shot at capturing the market for many emerging technologies -if we get our act together. We need not only the innovations, but the will to hold those businesses once established. The balance needs to shift a bit more toward actual production and away from the paper gains of Wall st. I think we can do it - especially in the field of alternative fuels and propulsion tech.

[CARBIZ]

As a society, the Japanese also have more respect for the 'rule of law,' even if it is only their law. In China, laws (like traffic signs) are mere suggestions. Japan possesses a lot of intellectual property, so the Japanese government has done a reasonable job of protecting intellectual property on their soil. Not so the Chinese. The Chinese government is resisting using Microsoft because they will not be beholden to its rules and regulations. Western companies daring to do business with China are forced into 'partnerships' where an exchange of technology always takes place. Hollywood is tied up into fits of apoploxy with the amount of bootlegged Cds, video games, etc. coming out of China.

Perhaps it is paranoia on the part of the Communist government, or maybe there is a more insidious reason they insist western companies hand over their technology. China has targeted airline manufacturing and aerospace next. I am all for friendly cooperation, but I have yet to see any from China. I just can't see why we are all in such a hurry to jump into bed with them. We have a sorry history of entering marriages of convenience (the Shah of Iran, for example), only to have those marriages blow up in our faces after a couple decades.

[Guest aatbloke]

As a society, the Japanese also have more respect for the 'rule of law,' even if it is only their law. In China, laws (like traffic signs) are mere suggestions. Japan possesses a lot of intellectual property, so the Japanese government has done a reasonable job of protecting intellectual property on their soil. Not so the Chinese. The Chinese government is resisting using Microsoft because they will not be beholden to its rules and regulations. Western companies daring to do business with China are forced into 'partnerships' where an exchange of technology always takes place. Hollywood is tied up into fits of apoploxy with the amount of bootlegged Cds, video games, etc. coming out of China.

Perhaps it is paranoia on the part of the Communist government, or maybe there is a more insidious reason they insist western companies hand over their technology. China has targeted airline manufacturing and aerospace next. I am all for friendly cooperation, but I have yet to see any from China. I just can't see why we are all in such a hurry to jump into bed with them. We have a sorry history of entering marriages of convenience (the Shah of Iran, for example), only to have those marriages blow up in our faces after a couple decades.

I don't honestly see what on earth you're complaining about. There isn't a single Chinese mass-produced car currently on sale in the United States. On the other hand, American companies - both in the automotive industry as well as in others - are doing very nicely out of China.

[balthazar]

thegriffon :>>"The Chinese cost advantage... is over-rated..."<<

I apologize that I cannot recall the specifics of industry, but it was last year I read about a chinese manufacturing entity that was paying workers the equivalent of 22 cents/hr for 12 hr days, 6 days a week, plus not allowing the 'employees' to leave company housing. Can you tell me that cultural mindset is no more only months later ?

aatbloke :>>"You have your head in the sand, and I can understand why. The Japanese' learning curve took thirty years to incur some real damage to the US car industry. The Koreans took some twenty-five years to inflict further damage. The Chinese - with the sheer variety of car manufacturers and qickly improving products such as the latest Geely GT and Roewe 550 could see a similar learning curve of just a decade, and which has the ability to inflict terminal damage. You're scared to death."<<

You may be scared of this, but assume too much RE my motivation. The only thing that "scares" me here is the industrialization of china consuming increasing quantities of irreplacable vintage iron as scrap.

I do not buy new automotively, and those modern vehicles that do suit my needs, the japanese (& korean & chinese) do not build.

But by my calculator; japan (toyota) started importing in '57, and after years of not accomodating the U.S. market, 'fell into' the Energy Crisis of '73. Even by '80, that was only 23 years, tho in that no one knew of toyota until the latter half of the '60s; one could legitimately argue that it took toyota merely 15 years to make a major impact ('65-80).

hyundai first imported to the U.S. in '86, so they are right around the same timespan as the japanese WRT vehicles in the U.S. market; by '86 there was little 'anti-asian car' sentiment left- toyota 'paved the way' for hyundai here.

IF a chinese company 'makes it', based on the degree of manufacturing ineptitude they've displayed repeatedly in exponentially-simpler products, it's logical to project the same rise in ability in automobiles to take at least twice as long as the koreans & japanese. The only thing I see countering this is the industrial chinese willingness to committ brazen plagerism.

CARBIZ :>>"Japanese products were never as horrible as the Chinese products are. I will agree that Made in Japan would have evoked derision and laughter 40 years ago, but I don't remember Japanese products having the wholesale flimsiness and downright criminal cheapness of the Chinese made products washing up on these shores now."<<

You're spot-on; japanese consumer products decades ago were generally not as good as the same segment American products, but they weren't the slipshod knock-offs that break at frightening fractions of typical segment lifespans, ala a major portion of chinese goods.

Japan is not korea is not china; to assume china will eclipse the koreans & japanese in -say- automotive performance (because they are also asian??) is not based on example.

enzl :>>"Additionally, if we're going to blame the Chinese for the consumer products you have discussed, you must first blame the Western Brands that have plastered their names all over the sh!t being offered today."<<

So you believe that a 'western brand' TOLD the chinese factory to put formaldehyde compounds into toothpaste ???

Is there anything you can find fault in without connecting it to America first & foremost and the Detroit 3.2 ultimately ?

moltar :>>"I don't see any way of undoing the damage that has been done over the last 3 or so decades..."<<

The vast majority of automobiles in America used to be American built. No doubt there were those in the '30s, '40s and '50s who couldn't see that changing either. Many claim that deteriorating quality turned the American consumer away from the domestic automobile; is that not the same scenario we are seeing from China now (deteriorating-to-non-existant quality)? Throw in the continually shrinking dollar and the unwillingness to control the borders and you have compelling (if liberal) reasons for a manufacturing turnaround. Steel alone is poised for an upturn since global demand & pricing has rendered U.S. ouput insufficient for even our own demands & more competitive globally. Who foresaw that one?

[Guest aatbloke]

"IF a chinese company 'makes it', based on the degree of manufacturing ineptitude they've displayed repeatedly in exponentially-simpler products, it's logical to project the same rise in ability in automobiles to take at least twice as long as the koreans & japanese. The only thing I see countering this is the industrial chinese willingness to committ brazen plagerism."

Very interesting comment, and a sentiment which seems completely the opposite to everyone (both in my profession and also within the car industry) I've talked to about this same topic. What you have to factor in is the fact that the Chinese economy has been growing at a rate in excess of 8-10% every year for the past decade. The resources at hand in China just five years ago were a very different ball game to what you find today. Coupled with western partnerships, they're learning fast: CAR magazine recently tested a Chinese-manufactured BMW 5-series and found absolutely no difference in build quality to the European model. Granted, it was built under the auspices of BMW, but the car uses a good deal of local parts content, too. Several designs featuring at this year's Beijing show already appear to be answering universal criticisms from just last year.

I'll stand by my earlier comments: the Chinese are people to whom it would be unwise to underestimate. I have nothing to fear from them, in fact I welcome their products becoming better in the coming years. They'll learn from the increased competition just as we will.

[balthazar]

The 'car industry' is not neccessarily known for unilateral brilliance (just ask this board), but regardless; I'm OK with running counter to their general opinion.

>>"What you have to factor in is the fact that the Chinese economy has been growing at a rate in excess of 8-10% every year for the past decade."<<

In and of itself, this tells us nothing directly about future product. It certainly does not dispute the prevalent lack of quality seen in -say- Year 8 or 9 or 10 in that decade past, does it? Economic well-being does not guarantee anything, ie; the manufacturing mindset is the prime directive. Can you draw a parallel beween past U.S. economic charts and auto industry overall quality year-on-year? Why assume the same unsupported correlation for china? Don't forget; overall it's gotten worse, not better.

>>"The resources at hand in China just five years ago were a very different ball game to what you find today."<<

This sort of factoid is tossed about with abandon, implying beyond-expectation solutions to a laundry list of challenges. But if the people/companies are still in place that knowingly put unspecified/ illegal/ toxic elements in previously manufactured consumables & goods, what is our assurance anything will change? In other words; was intentionally injuring their consumers solely a byproduct of want... or... an industrial culture that finds such practices, in fact, acceptable?

>>"Granted, it was built under the auspices of BMW..."<<

This is just about impossible to overemphasize the significance of. When outside entities are in control, true competitiveness is obtainable. All bets are off outside of that, according to everything I've seen.

Look; it very well may turn out that many or most of chinese industries eventually work as well as or better than their japanese competition. But for now, based on numerous examples in many segments, this is just not supported by example to date.

[thegriffon]

thegriffon :>>"The Chinese cost advantage... is over-rated..."<<

I apologize that I cannot recall the specifics of industry, but it was last year I read about a chinese manufacturing entity that was paying workers the equivalent of 22 cents/hr for 12 hr days, 6 days a week, plus not allowing the 'employees' to leave company housing. Can you tell me that cultural mindset is no more only months later ?

Labor is an increasingly minor component of product cost. Chinese enterprises are notoriously inefficient (in general), logistics are poor, low quality leads to high levels of wastage etc. etc.

The Brilliance BS6, despite it's shortcomings and noticeably lower quality materials, actually landed in Germany at a price higher than the Korean-manufactured Chevrolet Epica and Kia Optima. Must be all the money they paid Porsche and other European engineering firms to design the thing (almost no cheap Chinese engineers involved, and that's typical). Chinese pickups may appear cheap, but they are 20+ year old designs with 20+ year-old engines. You're lucky if they have fuel injection. Now, given how cheap the Ranger is now, how cheap do you think it would be if was more than 20 years old? Yopu can save a lot of money if you don't spend anything on product development. BTW these companies don't actually build trucks, they assemble them from kits—an of-the-shelf chassis, is mated to an off-the-shelf body, with an of-the-shelf engine and powertrain (all from other companies supplying all the small local truck makers). "Product development" consists of slapping on a new grille design and a new badge. This makes them cheap, but then production capacities are low (typically 30,000 p.a. each, often about half or less of which is used), and the possibility of re-engineering the chassis and body to western safety standards is oh, close to zero. How many stars do you think a Chevy LUV would get in NCAP testing? Well, that's the era of truck being built in China right now. An S10 would be bleeding edge (actually a D22 Frontier with the engine from an '89 Quest is state-of-the-art for Chinese pickups, and Dongfeng Nissan keeps that to itself).

This isn't like Russia either, where Lada can pay Porsche to engineer a new sedan and build 200K per year for more than 10 years. Chinese companies are spending big on western engineering firms with western development costs, but most will be lucky to sell 30,000 a year, even medium-sized firms like Geely will still lose market share. China is cut throat. There are a lot of players, and almost all the companies with money to burn are busy building more and more foreign cars in joint ventures. Even Chery, which is a relatively big player (400,000+ pa from models in almost every segment except pickups ad SUVs) is struggling to amortize the vast amount of money spent on vehicle and powertrain development,and they know they are 5-10 years away from being ready for current western market regulations (Euro4 is within reach but EPA tier II remains a dream), and of course by then the goalposts will have moved on considerably (Euro5 and Euro6 emissions). They need to sell engines in vast quantities to other companies, but aside from an unfulfilled deal with Fiat (which may never eventuate with Fiat accelerating its own programs) have been unsuccessful, and are turning to joint ventures to help pay the bills. It could all go pear-shaped very easily.

[Oracle of Delphi]

Product development" consists of slapping on a new grille design and a new badge.

Hmmm, sounds like another little car company I know in Australia! :AH-HA_wink:

[Guest aatbloke]

The 'car industry' is not neccessarily known for unilateral brilliance (just ask this board), but regardless; I'm OK with running counter to their general opinion.

>>"What you have to factor in is the fact that the Chinese economy has been growing at a rate in excess of 8-10% every year for the past decade."<<

In and of itself, this tells us nothing directly about future product. It certainly does not dispute the prevalent lack of quality seen in -say- Year 8 or 9 or 10 in that decade past, does it? Economic well-being does not guarantee anything, ie; the manufacturing mindset is the prime directive. Can you draw a parallel beween past U.S. economic charts and auto industry overall quality year-on-year? Why assume the same unsupported correlation for china? Don't forget; overall it's gotten worse, not better.

>>"The resources at hand in China just five years ago were a very different ball game to what you find today."<<

This sort of factoid is tossed about with abandon, implying beyond-expectation solutions to a laundry list of challenges. But if the people/companies are still in place that knowingly put unspecified/ illegal/ toxic elements in previously manufactured consumables & goods, what is our assurance anything will change? In other words; was intentionally injuring their consumers solely a byproduct of want... or... an industrial culture that finds such practices, in fact, acceptable?

>>"Granted, it was built under the auspices of BMW..."<<

This is just about impossible to overemphasize the significance of. When outside entities are in control, true competitiveness is obtainable. All bets are off outside of that, according to everything I've seen.

Look; it very well may turn out that many or most of chinese industries eventually work as well as or better than their japanese competition. But for now, based on numerous examples in many segments, this is just not supported by example to date.

I think you missed my point when I was referring to the sheer rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Coupled with this explosive growth has been a massive interest in car ownership. Back in 1988, during a BBC documentary made by Michael Palin as part of a travel series, he commented on what things would be like when the average Chinese "trade their bicycles in for Toyotas." By 1997 when he returned, that particular visionary quip had become reality; not only were Chinese cities booming, so was the general infrastructure and more and more foreign automakers were joining Volkswagen in setting up shop in China. In addition, countless new auto manufacturers were setting up shop.

Fast forward to 2008. The mass-market car industry - in credible substantial terms - remains less than a decade old, but the Chinese fascination with cars grow stronger than ever and with that infantile market comes the concept of competition. It's only a matter of time before the Chinese see the benefits of competition as being one of increasing quality. Indeed, the public will demand it, if nothing else but for its road network. In 1988 when China opened its first freeway, it comprised of an 18hm stretch near Shanghai. Fifteen years later, the freeway network stretched 19,000kms; by 2005, the freeway system had mushroomed to a staggering 41,000kms - just under half that of the United States and the second longest in the world. It is anticipated that by 2010, China's freeway system will be 65,000kms in length.

Combined with an average of almost 10% of year-on-year economic growth for the past twenty years, it's difficult for us in the west to imagine the rapid changes their car industry will be enduring. But change they will, and quickly.

[thegriffon]

Do many new Chinese models look well-engineered? Well so they should, since the development was done by the same European firms which subcontract for part or all of some western development programs. Chinese firms may have less money to spend, which shows in the results, but what can you do when you have no idea how to do it yourself? Of course Daewoo was also dependent on European engineering and design firms after GM pulled out (to a lesser extent than most Chinese companies though and at least had existing GM platforms to work from), but then you know what happened to them.

[regfootball]

It's very sad how little is Made in USA these days. One of the last product lines that still are made in America are Craftmans tools and products. It's long been their calling card. A few weeks ago however, I discovered that their less expensive toolboxes (which were still more expensive than say, Black ad Decker) are now made in Mexico. It's very sad.

the good beef jerky i get at the grocery store isn't even from the US....it's from brazil or God knows where.

[pow]

The US companies that demand low, low prices from their suppliers are every bit as responsible as US consumers who merely want to pay less. These companies go to China, seek lowest bidding wars, dictate pay, quantity, turnaround time, and other impossible conditions, and all that naturally perpetuates the poor quality or downright dangerous goods we read about. Meanwhile prices of goods certainly haven't fallen to match the lowered costs of production - how strange.

These circumstances are very much like what we see here in the Los Angeles garment industry. Blaming the small "factory" owner who struggles to make ends meet is foolish, when those higher up systematically demand sweatshop/slave conditions. Company housing, indentured servitude, and the conditions that go with it - unpaid wages, long hours, dangerous work environments, and cut corners - sadly aren't unique to China.

The reason most Chinese goods are cheap is because they are cheap. Make them properly and soon the cost benefits of "made in China" disappear. Chinese factories can and do assemble the iPhone, probably the nicest cellphone in the world, and it's not exactly inexpensive. My Treo and MacBook are both made in China, and they are perfectly fine; the Volt's battery cells, regardless of who develops - LG (Korea) or A123 (US) - or packs - CPI (US) or Continental (Germany) - them, they will likely be made in China, because that's where the manufacturing base for batteries has moved to.

Hopefully by demanding higher quality goods, companies will decide to move production back to the United States, where as thegriffon noted, we have an efficiency advantage... but I'm not holding my breath.

[pow]

the good beef jerky i get at the grocery store isn't even from the US....it's from brazil or God knows where.

Brazil certainly knows their meat...:-P Brazilian steakhouses are great for consuming vast quantities of beef.