Five Reasons GM Won't Declare Bankruptcy

[BigPontiac]

Forbes Article

Direct URL: http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletter...artner=yahootix

[Croc]

Good article.

[AAS]

Good article.

[post="43469"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

I second that.

[I hope GMRULES again]

About time someone wrote a positive article. I don't think GM will declare bankruptcy voluntarily anytime soon just as a way to get rid of their legacy costs. They may be forced into it in the future if their new products flop or a strike at Delphi cripples them.

[razoredge]

19 billion, so that will last about 3 years......if the medical and drug unions allow them to keep it that long. Im sure they are already chomping at the bit to get their hands on every last penny. Just think of all the advertising and drug promotion they can do with all that money This is America on Drugs ! tic toc tic toc

[turbo200]

Kerkorian just purchased what 11% of the shares? I know he wouldn't allow this to happen, it would be a pretty significant loss for him.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Reason No. 3: GM as a business is a very valuable franchise. Before it goes into bankruptcy, it would likely reach a merger agreement with a foreign car manufacturer much as Chrysler did seven years ago when it “merged” with Daimler to form DaimlerChrysler

GREAT... The whoring out of yet another once proud and powerful american company.

[hyperv6]

Fianlly someone dealing with reality vs most other reports! They did fail to mention the economic impact on our economy and miltary contract impact if GM fails. The goverment would bail them out on either account.

[cavalier36]

GREAT... The whoring out of yet another once proud and powerful american company.

[post="43494"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

could you imagine if toyota and GM would merge?? talk about unstopable.. other possibilitys would be Honda, or maybe Volkswagen.. none of this will ever happen so we wont have to worry about it..

[SimonDavid]

Their points are valid, but it does not change the fact that the company is leaking cash at the rate of 2 billion a quarter - 19 billion will not last long. And you can't simply devide 19 by 2 to find the number of quarters - as a company goes downhill things snowball - consumers back off and banks and suppliers start tightening credit. You rapidly reach a tipping point. But I agree that this would not be a straight forward chapter 11 - the affect on consumer confidence - there's little long term risk when you buy a flight - GM does have valuable brands, wheas in the airline industry the brand is meaningless - airline travel is a classic commodity - the presence of Kerkorian as a shareholder - he's not in the habit of just watching a couple of billion evaporate - would another automaker be tempted to swoop in at the last minute?

[thegriffon]

If you're a frequent flyer with a lot of miles saved, or a business traveller, then bankruptcy could see you switch airlines for security. Similarly for a big holiday or an important trip. No-one likes to be stranded. With so many domestic airtlines in difficulty there may not be a lot of choices, but you can bet those which remain profitable benefit from travellers concerned about booking flights on those being re-organized.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

could you imagine if toyota and GM would merge?? talk about unstopable..  other possibilitys would be Honda, or maybe Volkswagen..  none of this will ever happen so we wont have to worry about it..

[post="43798"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

That's the problem.

1) there will be no "merger" just like Chrysler and Daimler wasn't a "merger" eventhough they convinced idiot america that it was.

Toyota will buy GM and as Shantanu likes to say; "Make GM it's b*tch" just like Daimler did with Chrysler

2) A Toyota-GM merger would probably violate every anti-trust law in this country.

[David]

<_< Yea and when was the last time America allowed a foreign company to own a military supplier. Nope will never happen, probably we will see a bail out of GM just like Chrysler in the 80's.

[evok]

My only conclusion after reading a bunch of these GM bankrupcy threads and other threads is that, the American education systems is in a lot worse shape then I first thought. It appears, a lot of Children have been left behind. Edited November 16, 2005 by evok

[thegriffon]

Even for commodities branding can be significant - sometimes the only significant factor determining price. Many basic food stuffs are heavily branded, and although there are minor variations in quality and flavor, it is usually branding that makes the biggest difference to consumers. Even if pricing power is low, a strong brand can have a high loyalty that is still valuable. People are basically conservative - they stick with something they know they like, whether it be Ballpark hot dogs or Toyotas. To compete on price you need to be accepted as equal in value to your competitor - either equally low like plain milk, or equally high like a premium french champagne. A $20 Spanish cava may be just as good or better then a $200 bottle of Moet & Chandon, but very few people will by the cava if they can afford the champagne, even they've tasted both and can't tell the difference. That's the power of brand, and that's why it was a stupid idea to sell a midsize CTS as a 3-series competitor and a large STS as a cheaper alternative to a 5-series. Get the product wrong (in quality or market position) and a cheaper price won't help, get it right and a cheaper price isn't necessary.

[bowtie_dude]

My only conclusion after reading a bunch of these GM bankrupcy threads and other threads is that, the American education systems is in a lot worse shape then I first thought.  It appears, a lot of Children have been left behind.

[post="43858"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Hey, don't blame the system just because I didn't pay attention or take an economics class in college. :P

[razoredge]

My only conclusion after reading a bunch of these GM bankrupcy threads and other threads is that, the American education systems is in a lot worse shape then I first thought.  It appears, a lot of Children have been left behind.

[post="43858"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Yea, but even more scary is the mind set they've given degrees to and set loose on the world. Educated idiots are a dime a dozen not unlike those who are ignorant for other reasons, be it upbringing or distraction in HS or what not. Because someone has memorized phrases from a book and faked their way through a bunch of tests does not qualify them as great thinkers. Its does however seem to make them think they are quite special, so perhaps that is a form of greater thinking ?

BTW - So hows that retro Camaro coming ? You know, combination of 68 Camaro, Nomad concept. :unsure:

:lol:

[evok]

Yea, but even more scary is the mind set they've given degrees to and set loose on the world. Educated idiots are a dime a dozen not unlike those who are ignorant for other reasons, be it upbringing or distraction in HS or what not. Because someone has memorized phrases from a book and faked their way through a bunch of tests does not qualify them as great thinkers. Its does however seem to make them think they are quite special, so perhaps that is a form of greater thinking ?

BTW - So hows that retro Camaro coming ? You know, combination of 68 Camaro, Nomad concept.  :unsure:

:lol:

[post="43908"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

What's your excuse?

[razoredge]

What's your excuse?

[post="43910"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

What do I need an excuse for ?

[thegriffon]

Here's the key point in all this: "The main battle may well be within the United Auto Workers, pitting young workers against those who are either retired or about to retire." GM executives hint they have a plan to solve the financial problems. I think it will be a combination of concessions from the UAW to acceptable defined-contributions health and pension plans of the back of Delphi and a partial sale of GMAC to fund the current deficit. Of course it may all depend on whether they can get an acceptable price for GMAC. Long term I still think they need to spin of US manufacturing into a new semi-independent Fisher Body. The new company may be find things more difficult, but at least GM and it's shareholders and customers would be partially insulated.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

<_<  Yea and when was the last time America allowed a foreign company to own a military supplier.  Nope will never happen, probably we will see a bail out of GM just like Chrysler in the 80's.

[post="43839"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

IIRC, GM sold off it's military unit a couple of years ago.... So, aside from Camo-ed Silverados, GM ISN'T a military supplier.

I could be wrong though.

My only conclusion after reading a bunch of these GM bankrupcy threads and other threads is that, the American education systems is in a lot worse shape then I first thought. It appears, a lot of Children have been left behind.

Careful, a lot of what some of us post (me included) is sheer opinion and at no time is supposed to be confused with facts unless blatantly obvious or specified.

[David]

:P Too True Future of GM, so much self opinion that it can not be considered an evaluation of our educational system, but then if we just go on peoples writing and spelling, mine is bad I know it, then maybe we have left many behind. :lol:

[BigPontiac]

I still wonder about the Kerkorian angle in all of this. From another thread/article from the Detroit Free Press entitled "Lutz speaks on Kerkorian's side:"

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index...?showtopic=1741

Lutz, who at the time was president of Chrysler, Thursday said Kerkorian had intended it as a friendly offer and thought he had the support of chairman Bob Eaton for a management-led leveraged buyout (LBO).

As it turned out, after Eaton told Kerkorian he would take his offer to the board of directors for consideration, the board decided to actively fight the overture.

"The Chrysler takeover attempt, if you look at it, was based purely on a misunderstanding," Lutz said. "He thought he was doing a friendly LBO ... and it turned out to be hostile."

Maybe they're trying to do it again?

[Member55]

could you imagine if toyota and GM would merge?? talk about unstopable..  other possibilitys would be Honda, or maybe Volkswagen..  none of this will ever happen so we wont have to worry about it..

[post="43798"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

lol, Toyota and GM merging. Toyota is worth over 100 billion, GM is worth 13 billion. Toyota will make about 10 billion this year while GM will probably lose about 5 billion. Toyota can buy GM outright with their 05 profit alone. There is no way anything will happen in between those two but if did happen it sure wouldn't be "merging".

[91z4me]

lol, Toyota and GM merging. Toyota is worth over 100 billion, GM is worth 13 billion. Toyota will make about 10 billion this year while GM will probably lose about 5 billion. Toyota can buy GM outright with their 05 profit alone. There is no way anything will happen in between those two but if did happen it sure wouldn't be "merging".

[post="44077"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

How is GM worth only $13 Billion when they have that cash? Do we not forget all of GMs operations worldwide? GM is worth WAY more than $13 billion.

[Member55]

How is GM worth only $13 Billion when they have that cash?  Do we not forget all of GMs operations worldwide?  GM is worth WAY more than $13 billion.

[post="44245"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Number of GM shares X $21=about 13 billion

[razoredge]

How is GM worth only $13 Billion when they have that cash?  Do we not forget all of GMs operations worldwide?  GM is worth WAY more than $13 billion.

[post="44245"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

debt

[Member55]

My bad. It's about 12 billion now.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?shownav=true&symb=GM Edited November 17, 2005 by Member55

[91z4me]

debt

[post="44257"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

There ain't that much debt. Guys GM may have some problems but it is worth FAR more than the stock price right now. If GM sold off all of GMAC tomorrow it would fetch a few billion alone. That doesn't include any factories or its investments in other areas such as minority intrest in Hughes, formerly GM Hughes that Direct TV company. If GM is only worth 13 billion then it is a freakin' steal and could be bought up broken apart and sold off in parcels for TONS of money.

[Member55]

There ain't that much debt.  Guys GM may have some problems but it is worth FAR more than the stock price right now.  If GM sold off all of GMAC tomorrow it would fetch a few billion alone.  That doesn't include any factories or its investments in other areas such as minority intrest in Hughes, formerly GM Hughes that Direct TV company.  If GM is only worth 13 billion then it is a freakin' steal and could be bought up broken apart and sold off in parcels for TONS of money.

[post="44263"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

All you have to do is buy 51% of the GM shares and you own all of the stuff you mentioned, including worldwide operations.

[SingleStylish]

All you have to do is buy 51% of the GM shares and you own all of the stuff you mentioned, including worldwide operations.

[post="44264"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

WRONG! You own a majority of controlling interest but, you DO NOT OWN THE ASSETS! Do not confuse ASSETS with stock... two completely different things...

GM in ASSETS is worth A HELLUVA LOT MORE than 12 billion. 12 billion would earn the right to sell or control those assets but nothing more. Period. GM would still benefit from the sale or your control. Not the owner of 51%, you would only get a dividend check assuming there would be some gain. Edited November 17, 2005 by SingleStylish

[Member55]

WRONG!  You own a majority of controlling interest but, you DO NOT OWN THE ASSETS!  Do not confuse ASSETS with stock... two completely different things...

GM in ASSETS is worth A HELLUVA LOT MORE than 12 billion.  12 billion would earn the right to sell or control those assets but nothing more. Period.  GM would still benefit from the sale or your control.  Not the owner of 51%, you would only get a dividend check assuming there would be some gain.

[post="44389"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

If 51% allows me to do whatever I want than I own it. Nobody could stop me from selling GMAC, European operations any US brand etc. After each sale I could give it back to the shareholders in the form of one time dividend, that would be 51% for me from each sale. Once you have controling interest there are so many ways to get the money out of the company.

[SingleStylish]

If 51% allows me to do whatever I want than I own it. Nobody could stop me from selling GMAC, European operations any US brand etc. After each sale I could give it back to the shareholders in the form of one time dividend, that would be 51% for me from each sale. Once you have controling interest there are so many ways to get the money out of the company.

[post="44582"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Still does not change the fact that owning stock does not mean you own the assets. Most SMART companies put the assets in a shell corporation or "holding" corporation that cannot be sued. The managing LLC of the assets usually has no assets at all and if sued gets a sheet of paper. In the event of a suit or takeover the company/partners/stakeholders don't lose the asset. Undoubtedly GM has an asset holding corporation and GM proper is just the managing corporation. In which case, the assets may or may not be sold with the controlling interest in the managing corporation.


In the end... GM is worth more than the $12 billion stock price. Period.

[Member55]

In the end... GM is worth more than the $12 billion stock price.  Period.

[post="44650"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

I know what you are saying, but give me 12 billion and I will prove that everything GM owns can be purchased for 12 billion.

[Spartacus]

IIRC, GM sold off it's military unit a couple of years ago.... So, aside from Camo-ed Silverados, GM ISN'T a military supplier.

I could be wrong though.
Careful, a lot of what some of us post (me included) is sheer opinion and at no time is supposed to be confused with facts unless blatantly obvious or specified.

[post="43947"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

But then again Chrysler IS now owned by a foreign company. :(

[thegriffon]

The stock price factors in expected liabilities as well as current liabilities. The total company value (enterprise value) is debt + market capitalisation. Since any company buying GM takes on the debt, it is a real cost of acquisition.

[RODIMUS FIRE CONVOY]

THAT ARTICLE HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD, GM ISN'T GOING THE BANKRUPTCY ROUTE ANY TIME SOON. I PITY THE FOOL THAT WANTS GM TO FAIL!!!