Industry News: Britain To Ban Gas and Diesel Vehicle Sales By 2040

[William Maley]

Great Britain is planning to ban the sale of conventional gas and diesel vehicles from 2040 to help reduce air pollution. The government announced this in a paper published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

"There should be no new diesel or petrol vehicles by 2040," said environment minister Michael Gove to BBC Radio.

This is part of the government's £2.7bn blueprint for tackling air pollution. This includes investments going towards building out a charging infrastructure, more efficient public transport, and promoting walking and bicycling. It needs to be noted that the ban will not affect models with hybrid and plug-in hybrid drivetrains - early reports said all gas and diesel vehicles would be banned. 

This announcement comes a few weeks after France made a similar announcement to ban gas vehicles by 2040.

Source: Reuters

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[smk4565]

I imagine all of Europe will ban sale of fossil fuel burning cars by 2040.  Some countries are banning them in 2030.  I think post 2040 no car maker will use a gasoline engine, and if they do it will be as rare as today's diesels.

[David]

Agree with @smk4565 that Europe will end up killing off Diesel and Gas auto's in today's form. Hybrid and EV are the future. Once Germany is on board, the rest will then follow since Germany, France and UK will have them scheduled for end of life. 23 or 13 years either way, is plenty of time to move to new technology for personal transportation.

[balthazar]

The problem is the Germans OEMs shit in the diesel pool. Diesels are still expanding in the truck half of the market, but the Germans are pulling out (VW started up again) because they know they cheated the EPA testing and want to minimize any class-action suits. VW is paying lucratively to satisfy Gov't & car owners.

Pulling diesel cars is not indicative of consumer taste in this instance, but of minimizing legal payments. Consumers still like diesels & they have strong appeal- many people chose to keep their VWs rather than have them bought back. One friend of mine did.

Why not just pay the fine, fix the cars and keep moving forward instead of dumping the tech when caught red-handed?

[smk4565]

Gas and diesel pollutes, an electric car does not.  The regulations will force the change and I imagine emissions regulations will get so tough that it will cost too much to meet them.  You can argue the electric producing power plants will pollute but that won't be the auto makers fight. 

[balthazar]

Auto makers don't make the regulations, tho.

There needs to be an established viable mass-produced replacement before the current options are banned. At best it can only be an incremental creeping change, and that's if the consumers go along with it.

Look at cigarette taxing, numbers take a LONG time to change despite regulation/taxation changes/penalties. Decades and decades (cigarettes are still a work in progress, of course).

[David]

25 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Auto makers don't make the regulations, tho.

There needs to be an established viable mass-produced replacement before the current options are banned. At best it can only be an incremental creeping change, and that's if the consumers go along with it.

Look at cigarette taxing, numbers take a LONG time to change despite regulation/taxation changes/penalties. Decades and decades (cigarettes are still a work in progress, of course).

Cigs are now expected to die fast in states that have legalized Pot. Now you can sit around all day and be stoned and stupid rather than just offensive and stupid as a cig smoker.  

Course reality is that gov's will have to find a way to keep the jobs of workers in areas that are going to be killed off. So I guess incentives to build more battery factories, ev motor plants, etc. and move the workers over to that? 

[balthazar]

The Gov't is going to get into consumer manufacturing???

[riviera74]

So Britain and France are banning Gas and Diesel cars by 2040.  OK.  How are they going to generate enough electricity for the hybrids and EVs that they do want?  I know that France is still using nuclear energy; Britain I am not so sure. 

VW did ruin the diesel party by cheating; then again Piech created that problem in the first place by not accepting NO for an answer.  Europe does have an acid rain problem because of all of the pollution generated mostly by factories but also contributed by diesel emissions.  Sometimes it is simply better to just say, "here is what we want, you figure out how."

[Robert Hall]

Without efforts by CARB the last 50 or so years, cars would still be polluting horribly in the US.  Without regulatory pressure, car makers would have done nothing about pollution. Or safety for that matter..

[David]

58 minutes ago, balthazar said:

The Gov't is going to get into consumer manufacturing???

In europe are they not already doing that with the heavy Unions and companies like Airbus?

[oldshurst442]

50 minutes ago, dfelt said:

In europe are they not already doing that with the heavy Unions and companies like Airbus?

Yup.

And Group Renault-Nissan when France owns 19%

And Group PSA Which is Peugeot and Citroen when France own 13%

And Daimler and BMW and VAG when Germany subsidizes many key endeavors.

Not too mention the Japanese, Korean and Chinese industries involving all industries not just the automotive.

Its difficult to comprehend as in America, any governmental help or intervention is evil and socialist and communist. But the entire planet works that way...

This ALWAYS puts Detroit behind the 8 ball.

But....let us not pretend that Detroit never got governmental help in over the course of its 100-125 years of automotive existence.

Nor let us not pretend that foreign automotive manufacturers when entering the American market did not get some  level of US Government monetary help to build factories on US soil...

So yeah...basically....European countries do run and actually own some of these industries.

 

PS. Airbus is owned by

France 11.1%

Germany 11.1%

Spain 4.2%

Edited July 27, 2017 by oldshurst442

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

In europe are they not already doing that with the heavy Unions and companies like Airbus?

Absolutely...and IIRC Airbus is starting to pull ahead of Boeing.

1 hour ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Without efforts by CARB the last 50 or so years, cars would still be polluting horribly in the US.  Without regulatory pressure, car makers would have done nothing about pollution. Or safety for that matter..

Actually at this point we are going to follow a the rest of the world will lead for the foreseeable future.

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

The problem is the Germans OEMs shit in the diesel pool. Diesels are still expanding in the truck half of the market, but the Germans are pulling out (VW started up again) because they know they cheated the EPA testing and want to minimize any class-action suits. VW is paying lucratively to satisfy Gov't & car owners.

Pulling diesel cars is not indicative of consumer taste in this instance, but of minimizing legal payments. Consumers still like diesels & they have strong appeal- many people chose to keep their VWs rather than have them bought back. One friend of mine did.

Why not just pay the fine, fix the cars and keep moving forward instead of dumping the tech when caught red-handed?

Because people don't act rationally.

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

Auto makers don't make the regulations, tho.

There needs to be an established viable mass-produced replacement before the current options are banned. At best it can only be an incremental creeping change, and that's if the consumers go along with it.

Look at cigarette taxing, numbers take a LONG time to change despite regulation/taxation changes/penalties. Decades and decades (cigarettes are still a work in progress, of course).

No such thing as a perfect law.  I like the idea of electric cars from a personal liberty standpoint.

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, riviera74 said:

So Britain and France are banning Gas and Diesel cars by 2040.  OK.  How are they going to generate enough electricity for the hybrids and EVs that they do want?  I know that France is still using nuclear energy; Britain I am not so sure. 

VW did ruin the diesel party by cheating; then again Piech created that problem in the first place by not accepting NO for an answer.  Europe does have an acid rain problem because of all of the pollution generated mostly by factories but also contributed by diesel emissions.  Sometimes it is simply better to just say, "here is what we want, you figure out how."

Nitrous oxide really is a nasty pollutant.

[oldshurst442]

47 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Absolutely...and IIRC Airbus is starting to pull ahead of Boeing.

Not starting too....

Pulled ahead of Boeing at least a decade ago...

About 15 or so years ago, Airbus caught up to Boeing and did not take long after that to surpass Boeing.

It has been a cat and mouse chase for airplane contracts admittedly as Boeing and Airbus compliment the industry with not offering the same product in almost perfect harmony.  Airbus has planes that fulfill one need while Boeing has planes that fulfill a different need and each other's products dont overlap each other.

Example...the future of commercial flight was divided into 2 thoughts of school.

Airbus went the A380 route while Boeing went the Dreamliner route.

Both had decent sales of their respective products....but then defects occurred on both aircraft forcing the airline industries to look for other solutions in the other's portfolio.

Boeing did catch a slight break as its 747 still does the job fantastically as a jumbo jet plus Boeing made a newer one. A slightly bigger 747 using newer more efficient engines and newer Dreamliner composite materials. To boot, this new bigger 747 is not that far off in passenger count to the A380...

This is where Boeing just CAUGHT up to Airbus because Boeing's portfolio is a tad more flexible...(I think)

 

I know you know the airplane industry.

I had ins in the industry too. But its been awhile. Im going by an educated hunch on what I said.

Like I said...I know you know this industry.

Please respond to me and let me know If Im close to whatever I said or waaaaay off in left field.

Edited July 27, 2017 by oldshurst442

[A Horse With No Name]

10 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

Not starting too....

Pulled ahead of Boeing at least a decade ago...

About 15 or so years ago, Airbus caught up to Boeing and did not take long after that to surpass Boeing.

It has been a cat and mouse chase for airplane contracts admittedly as Boeing and Airbus compliment the industry with not offering the same product in almost perfect harmony.  Airbus has planes that fulfill one need while Boeing has planes that fulfill a different need and each other's products dont overlap each other.

Example...the future of commercial flight was divided into 2 thoughts of school.

Airbus went the A380 route while Boeing went the Dreamliner route.

Both had decent sales of their respective products....but then defects occurred on both aircraft forcing the airline industries to look for other solutions in the other's portfolio.

Boeing did catch a slight break as its 747 still does the job fantastically as a jumbo jet plus Boeing made a newer one. A slightly bigger 747 using newer more efficient engines and newer Dreamliner composite materials. To boot, this new bigger 747 is not that far off in passenger count to the A380...

This is where Boeing just CAUGHT up to Airbus because Boeing's portfolio is a tad more flexible...(I think)

 

I know you know the airplane industry.

I had ins in the industry too. But its been awhile. Im going by an educated hunch on what I said.

Like I said...I know you know this industry.

Please respond to me and let me know If Im close to whatever I said or waaaaay off in left field.

Sales wise they are close...Airbus was way behind on the introduction of the A350, the competitor to the wildly popular 777.

Even countries like Pakistan that pretty much hate the USA buy the777 because it is so wildly good at what it does.

In terms of A380 vs 787, Boeing will eventually make money on the 787, Airbus is pretty much out of orders and out of luck on the A380.

747 was a colossal waste of money as few airlines outside of Lufthansa bought it as a passenger plane, and they sell something like half a dozen or so freighter versions a year.

Will be interesting to see what the Chinese do, as they are wanting to compete with the A320 and the 737,  Hard to under estimate the Chinese, as they ahve been around for a few thousand years and they are a highly determined society with something to prove.

[riviera74]

From a US point of view, it does seem rather strange that Europe would actually OWN pieces of industries in their countries.  Then again, Europe is more socialist than the USA ever was.  At the same time, each can learn from the other on certain things if both are willing to learn.  I have never bought into the idea that governments should actually OWN parts of industries or companies for their own sake.  A lot of Europe could seriously privatize their stakes of multiple companies.  If you want to know how bad it can get, just look at most countries that own their oil industries and the problems with inflation and worse created by government ownership.  (Think Venezuela.)  OPEC is the biggest reason oil prices are where they are and where they have been.  Without OPEC, oil prices would have been consistently lower since 1973.  Ironically, the only reason fuel economy standards and pollution standards truly exist is because of the oil cartel propping up oil prices for so long.

I am all for EVs but who will buy them?  It is not as if Tesla is setting the world on fire.  The Nissan Leaf, two of which I saw yesterday, is not all that popular either.

[David]

56 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

I am all for EVs but who will buy them?  It is not as if Tesla is setting the world on fire.  The Nissan Leaf, two of which I saw yesterday, is not all that popular either.

It is a mind set that sadly needs to be pushed from gov down. The west coast where the Gov's have pushed this with the electric highway and rebates is far ahead of the rest of the US. You can easily make a road trip in an EV. Also both the Bolt and Leaf are everywhere. Yes you hear plenty of people that want bigger battery packs for longer driving, but that has not stopped even the i3 from BMW or Hyundai's Ioniq EV both with roughly 100 miles range from selling. Right now EV's are the ultimate commuter auto. Quiet, you can refill them at home with fresh electrons and the maintenance is very low compared to ICE.

Biggest issue with EV's is range and design / interior as many people want their existing auto's with a 300 mile range and they would flip without thinking about it to an EV. Yet with the BOLT, our plan to buy one went dead as the wife could not get over the white V in the dash, she hated the contrast and wanted a basic all black dash. Someone did not do their market research. Nissan at least got the dash right in terms of color.

[A Horse With No Name]

57 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

From a US point of view, it does seem rather strange that Europe would actually OWN pieces of industries in their countries.  Then again, Europe is more socialist than the USA ever was.  At the same time, each can learn from the other on certain things if both are willing to learn.  I have never bought into the idea that governments should actually OWN parts of industries or companies for their own sake.  A lot of Europe could seriously privatize their stakes of multiple companies.  If you want to know how bad it can get, just look at most countries that own their oil industries and the problems with inflation and worse created by government ownership.  (Think Venezuela.)  OPEC is the biggest reason oil prices are where they are and where they have been.  Without OPEC, oil prices would have been consistently lower since 1973.  Ironically, the only reason fuel economy standards and pollution standards truly exist is because of the oil cartel propping up oil prices for so long.

I am all for EVs but who will buy them?  It is not as if Tesla is setting the world on fire.  The Nissan Leaf, two of which I saw yesterday, is not all that popular either.

This is getting towards politics, not that I mind....but I think we may need to re open politics because one cannot talk about cars without talking about the world they live in from a political standpoint.

I would almost prefer a nationalized oil industry for various reasons.

1973 and OPEC was more about the Arab/Israeli conflict and Arab anger at America for helping Israel-again, highly political.

The government IMHO is better at some things (infrastructure, health care, national defense, regulation for pollution) and the private sector is better at some things (basically all of the innovation we enjoy every day-everything from Micro Brews and Taco trucks to Aircraft as we were discussing before.

I don't know that its wise to look at it as an either or thing either....the airline industry is heavily regulated but the safety and efficiency of the airline industry is astonishing.  In fact, 4 major air frame types have NEVER had a fatal accident despite billions of passenger seat miles flown-Boeing 717, Boeing 787, Airbus 340, Airbus 380.

THAT is government and industry working together.

Same thing with the national electrical code-I was an electrician for much of my adult career...insurance companies and home builders, as well as owners of commercial property have a vested interest in safe buildings that don't burn down or hurt people.

Just now, dfelt said:

It is a mind set that sadly needs to be pushed from gov down. The west coast where the Gov's have pushed this with the electric highway and rebates is far ahead of the rest of the US. You can easily make a road trip in an EV. Also both the Bolt and Leaf are everywhere. Yes you hear plenty of people that want bigger battery packs for longer driving, but that has not stopped even the i3 from BMW or Hyundai's Ioniq EV both with roughly 100 miles range from selling. Right now EV's are the ultimate commuter auto. Quiet, you can refill them at home with fresh electrons and the maintenance is very low compared to ICE.

Biggest issue with EV's is range and design / interior as many people want their existing auto's with a 300 mile range and they would flip without thinking about it to an EV. Yet with the BOLT, our plan to buy one went dead as the wife could not get over the white V in the dash, she hated the contrast and wanted a basic all black dash. Someone did not do their market research. Nissan at least got the dash right in terms of color.

...and this is where the USA disappointments me the most, actually.  we used to lead the world in moving ahead with things like this...seems we are now content to let the rest of the world lead.

[David]

16 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

...and this is where the USA disappointments me the most, actually.  we used to lead the world in moving ahead with things like this...seems we are now content to let the rest of the world lead.

Yes as long as idiots continue to elect Baby Boomers who should be off playing golf rather than trying to hold the US to their 1950-70's view of the world, we will not lead any longer. Hate to say it but their needs to be an age restriction for elected  officials. 65, you are no longer able to run for office. We need young energetic blood in office and term limits.

 So sad that we have given up leadership and ingenuity for the sake of status quo.

[Robert Hall]

Speaking of EVs and range vs ICE, it is hard to imagine how much longer my insane recent drive from Phoenix to Cleveland would have been in an EV....I refilled the Jeep every 300 miles or so, never let it get below half a tank as I was driving I-40 across the fecal void of AZ/NM/TX/OK...  and refilling took just a few minutes each time.. 2099 miles, 46 hrs of driving over about a 51 span...

Edited July 27, 2017 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[David]

2 hours ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Speaking of EVs and range vs ICE, it is hard to imagine how much longer my insane recent drive from Phoenix to Cleveland would have been in an EV....I refilled the Jeep every 300 miles or so, never let it get below half a tank as I was driving I-40 across the fecal void of AZ/NM/TX/OK...  and refilling took just a few minutes each time.. 2099 miles, 46 hrs of driving over about a 51 span...

Yea, pretty much figure it would have taken triple that time in an EV due to the lack of Infastructure for XFC systems. XFC = Xtreme Fast Chargers That is the new top end spec and is what will allow charging a car with a 300 mile range battery pack in less than 15 min.

[Robert Hall]

Just now, dfelt said:

Yea, pretty much figure it would have taken triple that time in an EV due to the lack of Infastructure for XFC systems. XFC = Xtreme Fast Chargers That is the new top end spec and is what will allow charging a car with a 300 mile range battery pack in less than 15 min.

It's hard to beat a comfortable ICE powered SUV for transcontinental drives...

[David]

3 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

It's hard to beat a comfortable ICE powered SUV for transcontinental drives...

So true as to why I have my Escalade. The best Road tripping ride around for Full size. The Jeeps are awesome as a mid size suv for road trips too. So many awesome options.

[A Horse With No Name]

20 minutes ago, dfelt said:

So true as to why I have my Escalade. The best Road tripping ride around for Full size. The Jeeps are awesome as a mid size suv for road trips too. So many awesome options.

In an ideal world, I would have a Jeep Grand Cherokee in the fleet.  two adult children living at home, a son in College, a daughter about to be in College....yeah....there is a reason i can't afford one.  Color me jealous!

[David]

4 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

In an ideal world, I would have a Jeep Grand Cherokee in the fleet.  two adult children living at home, a son in College, a daughter about to be in College....yeah....there is a reason i can't afford one.  Color me jealous!

My friend, you should look for a low milage 3-5 year old one that can be dealer certified and get the OEM extended warranty but save a bundle and buy one. I helped my sister with a 4 year old Escalade since her and her husband could not afford new. Been an outstanding auto for them and is an outstanding way to go for getting into a high end SUV for a low end price.

[Robert Hall]

That's what I did w my GC.  3 yr old CPO w 25k miles w extended warranty to 100k miles.  Happy w my purchase 4 months and 5k miles later.  

[smk4565]

12 hours ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Speaking of EVs and range vs ICE, it is hard to imagine how much longer my insane recent drive from Phoenix to Cleveland would have been in an EV....I refilled the Jeep every 300 miles or so, never let it get below half a tank as I was driving I-40 across the fecal void of AZ/NM/TX/OK...  and refilling took just a few minutes each time.. 2099 miles, 46 hrs of driving over about a 51 span...

Eventually there will be batteries that charge in minutes, plus autonomous cars that can drive you you sleep, so a 10 minute recharge would be no big deal anyway.  The tech isn't there yet but look at a cell phone battery in 1997 and look at today's.

[FAPTurbo]

i oppose this ban coming to america because the midwest still has coal-rollers that have yet to die of diesel fume-induced brain hemorrhaging.

[A Horse With No Name]

4 hours ago, FAPTurbo said:

i oppose this ban coming to america because the midwest still has coal-rollers that have yet to die of diesel fume-induced brain hemorrhaging.

The real banality of life in the Midwest is best expressed through sarcasm, but I have recently put sand in the private parts of another member here expressing the true nature of how these things work...so I will return later to post pictures of kittens instead.

[David]

10 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Eventually there will be batteries that charge in minutes, plus autonomous cars that can drive you you sleep, so a 10 minute recharge would be no big deal anyway.  The tech isn't there yet but look at a cell phone battery in 1997 and look at today's.

Tech is here, you look at the new round of wireless charging phones. Tech is here, just not polished yet or has it been tested on a large scale. Nissan as I posted a while back has a complete wireless charging system for their future leaf's. The end result is having pads in the ground, you park over it and it charges your auto, then you just get in and drive away. I suspect the next 5 years will be interesting as Euro, American and Asian auto companies bring out various options.

Biggest challenge is getting auto companies to think beyond a mere slow charge. GM with the Bolt should have taken a page from Tesla and put in the high speed charging, it would have really changed the game and forced others to step up faster if GM would have supported faster than an 80kWh charger. This allows a constant 50kWh charge into the battery pack and just shy of 90 min for full charge of the battery. 

We both know that the german brands are all looking at 3 times this kWh charging to reduce it down to 30 min full charge, 15 min 80% charged.  Here is to an Electron future.

[David]

4 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

The real banality of life in the Midwest is best expressed through sarcasm, but I have recently put sand in the private parts of another member here expressing the true nature of how these things work...so I will return later to post pictures of kittens instead.

I agree Sandy Privates are not fun!

Interesting is that there is updates in the UK and France to outright ban 10yr old diesels and not renew their yearly license. Pulling them off the road in 2018 if they get passed.

I will say that is a bit extreme, but then I also can understand as they do not test for pollution like in the states. Emissions should be kept in check.

[David]

@A Horse With No Name

Cats for you!

Ultimate Cat Addiction, Huffing Auto's!!!  

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

I agree Sandy Privates are not fun!

Interesting is that there is updates in the UK and France to outright ban 10yr old diesels and not renew their yearly license. Pulling them off the road in 2018 if they get passed.

I will say that is a bit extreme, but then I also can understand as they do not test for pollution like in the states. Emissions should be kept in check.

Our population density is a lot less here in the states. not even close. Paris has twice the population density of New York City, and Paris is not even the most densely populated city in Europe. There is a reason why the Fiesta is the most popular car in England...

54 minutes ago, dfelt said:

@A Horse With No Name

Cats for you!

Ultimate Cat Addiction, Huffing Auto's!!!  

You know that last cat must be named Bill Clinton...because he did not inhale...

Big orange cat looks like my cat Oliver...

Intermittent wipers...the other cat...

My daughter the other day was telling me the story of how they were developed...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kearns

Unique story!

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

Tech is here, you look at the new round of wireless charging phones. Tech is here, just not polished yet or has it been tested on a large scale. Nissan as I posted a while back has a complete wireless charging system for their future leaf's. The end result is having pads in the ground, you park over it and it charges your auto, then you just get in and drive away. I suspect the next 5 years will be interesting as Euro, American and Asian auto companies bring out various options.

Biggest challenge is getting auto companies to think beyond a mere slow charge. GM with the Bolt should have taken a page from Tesla and put in the high speed charging, it would have really changed the game and forced others to step up faster if GM would have supported faster than an 80kWh charger. This allows a constant 50kWh charge into the battery pack and just shy of 90 min for full charge of the battery. 

We both know that the german brands are all looking at 3 times this kWh charging to reduce it down to 30 min full charge, 15 min 80% charged.  Here is to an Electron future.

An electron future indeed!

[David]

@A Horse With No Name Very cool about the wipers, thank you  

[A Horse With No Name]

17 minutes ago, dfelt said:

@A Horse With No Name Very cool about the wipers, thank you  

I thought it was a cool story!