Tesla's Upcoming Model Y To Use Model 3 Platform

[William Maley]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a surprise announcement earlier this year with the upcoming Model Y crossover using a new platform and not the one used for the Model 3. Musk has changed his tune, however.

“Upon the council of my executive team . . . who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity—much appreciated—the Model Y will in fact be using substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster,” said Musk during the second quarter earnings call yesterday.

How much faster? Previously, Musk said the Model Y (if that is the final name) could arrive by 2019. But during this call, Musk did not give a date - possibly a wise idea.

Source: Autoblog, Car and Driver

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[surreal1272]

This should have been out before the 3. 

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

This should have been out before the 3. 

480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

[Robert Hall]

9 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

The crossover would probably have 800k reservations in today's market.

[surreal1272]

12 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

So in this world of yours, sedans are selling better than CUVs? 

 

Oh and they had 65,000 cancellations. 

6 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

The crossover would probably have 800k reservations in today's market.

Exactly my point. 

[David]

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

During the earnings call Musk answered the question about reservations and cancellations.

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/13163/63000-people-have-cancelled-their-tesla-model-3-reservations-so-far

They had 518,000 reservations at the start of the year and have now had 63,000 cancellations so far leaving them with 455,000 reservations. If this stays steady, then expect another 63,000 cancellations leaving them with 392,000.

Yes I am sure they might get a few more reservations but now that people see the production auto and see the limited options, I kinda doubt they will get much more and expect them to close out the year under 400K reservations.

Clearly the difference between 480,000 and 455,000 is a big one. Where did you get this number?

[balthazar]

Quote

480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

On 8/1/2017 at 1:53 PM, balthazar said:

I doubt half have been cancelled- I would believe 15% from the initial placement... but now that hard numbers are out there WRT $, I expect it to edge up from that some. I think it's realistic to guess 25%.

480,000 / 63000 = 13%

Let's see where it goes from here.

Edited August 3, 2017 by balthazar

[Robert Hall]

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

480,000 / 63000 = 13%

Let's see where it goes from here.

Probably will be over 500k by Labor Day..

[David]

23 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Probably will be over 500k by Labor Day..

Doubt it, but maybe, Musk says 1800 people a day are making reservations. that is only 32 days away or 57,600 and if the number is true then you have 455,000 + 57,600 = 512,600 but then minus those cancellations which is 63,000 from Jan 1st to July 31st. So take 63,000 divided by 212 days = 297.169 cancelations per day.

32 days times 297.169 = 9,509.4339 cancelations.

512,600 - 9,509 = 503,091 so you may be right, but also I really doubt Musk is getting 1,800 reservations a day. I still expect the reservations to be below 400,000 by the end of the year and only about 20 to 30,000 model 3's actually delivered.

29 minutes ago, balthazar said:

480,000 / 63000 = 13%

Let's see where it goes from here.

Would it not be 63,000 / 455,000 = 13.8%

[smk4565]

If they even sell 200,000 Model 3's next year that would be more than the 3-series ever sold in a year.  At 350,000 they are at Camry and Accord levels, which are the best selling sedans in the US.  If sedan sales look bad now, wait till next year when the Model 3 takes a huge chunk of them.

[surreal1272]

They will not, I repeat, will not sell 200K Model 3s in one year. 

[David]

11 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

They will not, I repeat, will not sell 200K Model 3s in one year. 

Agreed, since the Tesla S & X sold 46,000 last year, If they can double that number to 46,000 Tesla S & X and 46,000 Tesla 3 for 2018 they will be doing good I think.

Since they have clarified that they will be adding a Tesla Y CUV on the Tesla 3 platform, I think they really are pushing just how many auto's they can build.

[balthazar]

Anyone going to be surprised to see Model Y pre-ordering opened up in short order? Like before the end of 2017?

[daves87rs]

5 hours ago, smk4565 said:

If they even sell 200,000 Model 3's next year that would be more than the 3-series ever sold in a year.  At 350,000 they are at Camry and Accord levels, which are the best selling sedans in the US.  If sedan sales look bad now, wait till next year when the Model 3 takes a huge chunk of them.

Thinking people are going to get tired of waiting...and their money may go to someone else....

[Robert Hall]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

Anyone going to be surprised to see Model Y pre-ordering opened up in short order? Like before the end of 2017?

Wouldn't surprise me....Next Big Thing for Tesla...

[David]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

Anyone going to be surprised to see Model Y pre-ordering opened up in short order? Like before the end of 2017?

Yes, a way to keep money for those fleeing the extra long wait for a Tesla 3 and really wanting a CUV. With all the other OEM's bringing out CUV's over the next 12 months, I think Tesla's cake is going to be eaten!

9 hours ago, daves87rs said:

Thinking people are going to get tired of waiting...and their money may go to someone else....

Exactly, OEM's over the next 12 months will have various new CUV EV's. Tesla missed this boat big time as the Tesla 3 CUV should have been first not the car. Plus other options without long waits will have people going back to their favorite auto dealer.

19 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

Wouldn't surprise me....Next Big Thing for Tesla...

Only way to keep the cash flow going to prop up the company.

[smk4565]

When are all these electric CUVs arriving?  Audi and Mercedes are targeting 2019, they are 2 years away.   The Buick Bolt is probably a year or two away and if it is the size of a Bolt, will be a lot smaller than a Model Y.  It's not like Lexus has an electric RX for $40k coming in 6 months.  Even if the Model Y is 2019, they aren't really behind the curve and they do already sell an electric SUV.

 

[balthazar]

"No one buys" mercedes plug-ins - Bolt is moving SIX TIMES all MB EVs combined monthly.
That's likely to continue no matter how Daimler repackages it. Meanwhile MB is just conceding more & more ground to General Motors by refusing to get serious about the segment and fix the uncompetitive models they already have out.

[smk4565]

48 minutes ago, balthazar said:

"No one buys" mercedes plug-ins - Bolt is moving SIX TIMES all MB EVs combined monthly.
That's likely to continue no matter how Daimler repackages it. Meanwhile MB is just conceding more & more ground to General Motors by refusing to get serious about the segment and fix the uncompetitive models they already have out.

Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10.  Mercedes has also had a battery factory under construction, GM does not have a battery factory like Tesla and Mercedes do.

I think the electric Mercedes will sell, they don't even advertise any of their plug ins, plus a plug in is not an EV.   The real EVs are coming in 2019 and we'll see what they got.  Which to my original point, who has an electric SUV now besides Tesla and people are critizicng Tesla for lack of electric suvs.

[surreal1272]

6 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10.  Mercedes has also had a battery factory under construction, GM does not have a battery factory like Tesla and Mercedes do.

I think the electric Mercedes will sell, they don't even advertise any of their plug ins, plus a plug in is not an EV.   The real EVs are coming in 2019 and we'll see what they got.  Which to my original point, who has an electric SUV now besides Tesla and people are critizicng Tesla for lack of electric suvs.

Just stop. Tesla is just like every other make out there and every other make has prioritized CUVs over sedans because that is what's selling. To pretend otherwise is just an obvious case of bias to suit your argument of the day. 

 

"Cadillac needs seven CUVs to compete"

 

"Tesla doesn't need a CUV to compete"

 

That's how you're coming off right now. 

 

Finally, no one has an electric SUV including Tesla. They have an electric CUV and so does GM. 

[David]

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

When are all these electric CUVs arriving?  Audi and Mercedes are targeting 2019, they are 2 years away.   The Buick Bolt is probably a year or two away and if it is the size of a Bolt, will be a lot smaller than a Model Y.  It's not like Lexus has an electric RX for $40k coming in 6 months.  Even if the Model Y is 2019, they aren't really behind the curve and they do already sell an electric SUV.

Latest news that I have read is showing that the german brands and a few asian brands along with Volvo are planning to roll out production version during the 2017-2018 auto shows with production and on sale in late 2018 at 2019 models. Even MB your superior brand has updated their news that their first EV will launch at dealerships in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2018 which means we will see it announced at one of the major shows during the 2017-2018 show time frame.

End result is that Tesla is going to find it very hard very soon as other auto companies offer EV CUV's that people want and many will pass on waiting years to get a Tesla compared to buying MB, BMW, Audi, Volvo, Jaguar, GM, Ford, etc.

[FAPTurbo]

what's gm's electric cuv?

mustn't be good if no one's heard of it

[Intrepidation]

Didn't you hear? GM just released it never. But hey, it sells as many units as the entire Pontiac division does.

[FAPTurbo]

3 minutes ago, Intrepidation said:

Didn't you hear? GM just released it never. But hey, it sells as many units as the entire Pontiac division does.

[surreal1272]

30 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

what's gm's electric cuv?

mustn't be good if no one's heard of it

The Bolt is a small CUV that is called a hatchback (which all CUVs are). Thanks for playing though. 

[balthazar]

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10. 

Bolt is ALREADY taking ALL 4 of MB's plug-ins on, right now.

July '17~
Bolt : 1,971
Volt : 1,518
total ~ 3,833
ALL 4 MB plug-ins : 344

So if 4 MB plug-ins average 86 sales each/mnth, 10 would be 860/mnth.

I hope MB can take on all of the Bolt with their 10 vehicles.

[Intrepidation]

Hatchbacks are their own body style classification while CUV's were jacked up hatchbacks that want to look like they can maybe but not really go offroad.

For example:

 

Subaru Impreza is a hatchback

Subaru UX Crosstrek is a CUV



Hence why if you look up Chevy Bolt you get this:

 

Quote

The Chevrolet Bolt or Chevrolet Bolt EV is a front-engine, five-door all-electric subcompact hatchback marketed by Chevrolet.

 

[surreal1272]

17 minutes ago, Intrepidation said:

Hatchbacks are their own body style classification while CUV's were jacked up hatchbacks that want to look like they can maybe but not really go offroad.

For example:

 

Subaru Impreza is a hatchback

Subaru UX Crosstrek is a CUV



Hence why if you look up Chevy Bolt you get this:

 

 

I am speaking tongue in cheek. No need to get literal. Fact is though that all CUVs are just tall hatchbacks in my book. You also missed the initial point when SMK claimed that Tesla has an SUV when they do not. It is a CUV that they try to market as an SUV with the word "crossover" in front of it. Sorry but that's a CUV any way you slice it. 

[balthazar]

No doubt Subaru loves having the Crosstek called a 'CUV" but those 2 above are -for all practical purposes- the same physical vehicle.

[surreal1272]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

No doubt Subaru loves having the Crosstek called a 'CUV" but those 2 above are -for all practical purposes- the same physical vehicle.

Exactly. Much like Tesla calling the X a "crossover SUV", it is just not so clever marketing going on here. 

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

The Bolt is a small CUV that is called a hatchback (which all CUVs are). Thanks for playing though. 

The Bolt is not an SUV or CUV.  Where is the Electric SUV the size of an Equinox or Traverse?  Tesla already has the 3 row SUV.  I don't think doing a sedan instead of an SUV is a bad move, Tesla builds sporty cars and sedan makes sense for their brand.  And the smaller SUV is coming.

In a way the Model 3 as a sedan makes total sense, most companies are , giving up on sedans because they see easier profit on a truck, but there are still sedan fans as proven by the fact that 450,000 people are in line to get one, which is 450,000 more than any other car on the market has.

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Bolt is ALREADY taking ALL 4 of MB's plug-ins on, right now.

July '17~
Bolt : 1,971
Volt : 1,518
total ~ 3,833
ALL 4 MB plug-ins : 344

So if 4 MB plug-ins average 86 sales each/mnth, 10 would be 860/mnth.

I hope MB can take on all of the Bolt with their 10 vehicles.

Plugins are not EVs.  Mercedes is technically going to have a 100% hybrid line up by 2019, so then I guess you can compare their 2 million a year sales to the Bolt.  Which would be just as pointless as comparing Bolt EV sales to plug in s-Class sales.

[surreal1272]

9 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

The Bolt is not an SUV or CUV.  Where is the Electric SUV the size of an Equinox or Traverse?  Tesla already has the 3 row SUV.  I don't think doing a sedan instead of an SUV is a bad move, Tesla builds sporty cars and sedan makes sense for their brand.  And the smaller SUV is coming.

In a way the Model 3 as a sedan makes total sense, most companies are , giving up on sedans because they see easier profit on a truck, but there are still sedan fans as proven by the fact that 450,000 people are in line to get one, which is 450,000 more than any other car on the market has.

Plugins are not EVs.  Mercedes is technically going to have a 100% hybrid line up by 2019, so then I guess you can compare their 2 million a year sales to the Bolt.  Which would be just as pointless as comparing Bolt EV sales to plug in s-Class sales.

Read my last post before posting again. I specified what I meant by the Bolt being a CUV. 

 

And again, the X is a crossover which, by the very definition, is a CUV. 

[surreal1272]

42 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

The Bolt is not an SUV or CUV.  Where is the Electric SUV the size of an Equinox or Traverse?  Tesla already has the 3 row SUV.  I don't think doing a sedan instead of an SUV is a bad move, Tesla builds sporty cars and sedan makes sense for their brand.  And the smaller SUV is coming.

In a way the Model 3 as a sedan makes total sense, most companies are , giving up on sedans because they see easier profit on a truck, but there are still sedan fans as proven by the fact that 450,000 people are in line to get one, which is 450,000 more than any other car on the market has.

Plugins are not EVs.  Mercedes is technically going to have a 100% hybrid line up by 2019, so then I guess you can compare their 2 million a year sales to the Bolt.  Which would be just as pointless as comparing Bolt EV sales to plug in s-Class sales.

You do realize that you are only hurting your argument since right now Benz has only one EV and it is going bye bye due to $h! sales? 

 

Btw, he included the Volt since it is a plug in. 

 

As far as your Benz hybrid statement, are you telling us that they will have only hybrids and nothing else (i.e. Gas only models)?

[balthazar]

InsideEVs tabulates both pure EVs and hybrids, as both are 'plug-ins'.

But even against the Volt, MB plug-in sales are non-existent.

[Robert Hall]

Supposedly M-B is developing an electric CUV (production version of the Concept EQ?) but who knows when it will be out...and Smart is going all-electric for the US market, so that will be a few EV sales.

[balthazar]

smart ED sales in the last 4 months? 7 cars. for the year to date? 57.

"A few" indeed.

[smk4565]

All Mercedes gas engines will be paired with a 48 volt mild hybrid system, thus making everything they make by definition a hybrid, but Audi and Volvo are moving toward this too, they are all still burning gas.  

The Mercedes electric crossover is supposed to go on sale in 2019.

We know eventually everything will be electric, it is just a matter of how fas the market adapts to it.  If it swings fast to EV, at least Mercedes will be ready.  If it doesn't they'll have the inline 4 and six gas engines still.  They are covered.