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Toyota News: Toyota's R&D Boss Believes Internal Combustion Engines For Cars To Be Gone By 2050

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Most vehicles sold feature an internal combustion engine running some type of fuel, but a Toyota executive believes this engine will be gone for vehicles by 2050.

“We expect that by 2050 we will have reduced CO2 emissions from vehicles by 90% compared to the figure in 2010. To achieve that from 2040 simple internal combustion engined cars will not be made, but they may be the basis of some hybrid or plug-in hybrid cars,” said Seigo Kuzumaki, Toyota’s head of advanced R&D and engineering.

Kuzumaki's reasoning for this comes down to governments tightening regulations on emissions. This, in turn, will cause automakers to accelerate development of alternative powertrains such as electrics.

Toyota's a latecomer to electric vehicles, instead choosing to focus on hydrogen. But the Japanese automaker is working on a new family of EVs that will launch in 2020. The models will use lithium-ion batteries and have a range of 300 miles. But Toyota hopes to launch solid state batteries only a few years later for their EVs. Solid state batteries use solid electrolytes instead of liquid to hold a charge. This will provide better performance and a smaller size than the lithium-ion battery packs.

Source: Autocar


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Of course there'll still be 150 million used IC vehicles running around. Unless the Gov't is going to confiscate & crush them.

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I think in the modern 1st world nations New ICE will be gone by 2030 to 2035 as a for sale option. It is possible they could be gone world wide for new Auto sales by 2050. Hybrids I think will still be around for 3rd world places that have lousy electrical grids.

I do agree with Toyota R&D, the best batteries I ever had in an auto were solid state. Sears for a while sold a platinum solid state battery, expensive and had a 7 year warranty. Loved them, but when I went to buy another, they had discontinued selling them due to poor sales. Was told they were more expensive than majority of people were willing to pay. 

I suspect technology will bring this cost down greatly over the next 5 years on top of breakthroughs like Toshiba has with their rapid charge batteries.

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Notice those two words... "...from VEHICLES".  There is still the problem of CO2 from ALL THOSE OTHER SOURCES THAT ARE NOT BEING REGULATED ONE BIT.

Sly insertion to show his displeasure.  And there are millions of people just like him.  This is being forced on people who do not want it, and it will not solve a problem because there is no problem to be solved.

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52 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Notice those two words... "...from VEHICLES".  There is still the problem of CO2 from ALL THOSE OTHER SOURCES THAT ARE NOT BEING REGULATED ONE BIT.

Sly insertion to show his displeasure.  And there are millions of people just like him.  This is being forced on people who do not want it, and it will not solve a problem because there is no problem to be solved.

Where is this fantasy planet that doesn’t have regulations?

 

And your last paragraph sound like the words of the horse and buggy business over a century ago. Say hello them. 

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Ok... not sure why... but "hello them".

Livestock CO2 emissions are not regulated.  People exhale CO2.  CO2 is generated all over the place and the car is the fall guy because of some misguided vendetta against fossil fuels.  Where are all these metals going to come from to manufacture all these batteries?  And how will they be transported to industrialized countries that will be making them?  By ship most likely and are there emissions standards for ships?

11 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

hello them

 

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6 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Ok... not sure why... but "hello them".

Livestock CO2 emissions are not regulated.  People exhale CO2.  CO2 is generated all over the place and the car is the fall guy because of some misguided vendetta against fossil fuels.  Where are all these metals going to come from to manufacture all these batteries?  And how will they be transported to industrialized countries that will be making them?  By ship most likely and are there emissions standards for ships?

 

Newsflash, you can’t control the CO2 emissions of living creatures. You can with everything else. 

 

What is amsuing is the “well there’s all the other sources of pollution so why bother with cars?” argument. It’s amusing and foolishly ignorant. 

 

And yes, say hello to the horse and buggy industry while you fight the obvious evolution of technology. 

Edited by surreal1272
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I would say it is much easier to crack down on CO2 pollution on power plants first, then go after cars.  One coal-fired plant will pollute more than thousands of cars at any one time.  2030 may well be the beginning of the end of the ICE in vehicles, but I would rather see no more power plant emissions first.  Afterwards, then the zero-emission vehicle mandates can start.

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:lol:

 

Not going to happen.....now can I see not so many- Yes. I think we will still have choices, though I think the popular one will be electric. Which is okay. There are still going to be cases that good ol' gas engines will need to be used....plus, I think people will still enjoy them....and not everyone is going to retrofit a classic car either....

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5 hours ago, ocnblu said:

 Where are all these metals going to come from to manufacture all these batteries?  And how will they be transported to industrialized countries that will be making them?  By ship most likely and are there emissions standards for ships?

First off China leads the world in recycling metal of all types, we ship it to them after we dump it on ships.

Second, Marine Ocean Going ships do have CO2 regulations, all new ships are EV Ships using LNG or super clean low sulfur bunker fuel to run generators thus reducing emissions and improving efficiencies. Cost of fuel is a bitch, EV ships are far more efficient and maneuverable.

For your reading pleasure:

http://www.ics-shipping.org/docs/default-source/resources/environmental-protection/shipping-world-trade-and-the-reduction-of-co2-emissions.pdf?sfvrsn=6

This was a report put together and approved by the global marine industry to reduce polution and it is from 2006, you can find this going back to the 90's as they looked for ways to reduce CO2 output, reduce cost and clean up the ships used to move cargo around.

http://www.martrans.org/docs/publ/REFEREED JOURNALS/WMUJMA EMISSIONS 2009.pdf

Our own Government signed off on this and President Bush signed this into law with approval of our house and Senate in 2000 with reductions in CO2 and cleaning up the marine fuel industry and the ships.

https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/international-standards-reduce-emissions-marine-diesel

Sorry to bust your Amish thinking, but our own country and everyone else around the world has been focused on reducing the pollution and CO2 production from the Marine shipping fleets.

Need more reading, here is a Bing Search for you to have more documentation:

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Commercial+ship+emission+regulations&qs=n&form=CHRDEF&pc=U480&sp=-1&pq=undefined&sc=0-21&sk=&cvid=C14899805E194460B76A04978A519516

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4 hours ago, riviera74 said:

I would say it is much easier to crack down on CO2 pollution on power plants first, then go after cars.  One coal-fired plant will pollute more than thousands of cars at any one time.  2030 may well be the beginning of the end of the ICE in vehicles, but I would rather see no more power plant emissions first.  Afterwards, then the zero-emission vehicle mandates can start.

Actually @Drew Dowdell had posted some info that showed the huge reduction in Coal power Plants as they switch to much cleaner Natural Gas which North America sits on the world's largest reserves.

Here is a 3rd party story that shows the big change over:

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html

A research story by The Guardian that shows the dominate production of Electricity in the US will be by Natural Gas by 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/14/gas-surges-ahead-of-coal-in-us-power-generation

Here is our own government details showing that Natural Gas Production of Electricity surpassed Coal in 2016 4 years ahead of original expectations.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392

2/3rds of CO2 output by Dirty Coal has been removed since they started the switch to Natural Gas production in the 90's.

Now is the time to start the transition to EV Auto's.

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While all of that blather up there is good, there will NEV.ER. be an appropriate time to "start the transition to EV Auto's" (sic)

(You kill me with your funny non-grammatical apostrophes)  :lol:

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11 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

And your last paragraph sound like the words of the horse and buggy business over a century ago. Say hello them. 

We ahve a really cool house in Columbus built by people in that business....ten years after it was built, they went broke...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1330-Bryden-Rd-Columbus-OH-43205/33846110_zpid/

Image result for 1330 bryden road columbus ohio

It is slowly being rebuilt by a very determined individual...no one else has been in the house for something like 30 years...

Scientists warning to humanity about global climate change and other things that will happen if we keep using fossil fuels;

http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Ripple_et_al_11-3-17 Scientists main text.pdf

Who do i believe...13,000 plus scientists or an automotive body shop estimator from Lancaster PA with an admitted bias against electric cars?

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2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

While all of that blather up there is good, there will NEV.ER. be an appropriate time to "start the transition to EV Auto's" (sic)

(You kill me with your funny non-grammatical apostrophes)  :lol:

However, the amount of fossil fuel is indeed finite, there will be a very painful end to life as we know it if we do not transition to renewable energy.  I like to deal with unpleasant things before they bite me in the ass, not after. Just sayin.

6 hours ago, dfelt said:

Actually @Drew Dowdell had posted some info that showed the huge reduction in Coal power Plants as they switch to much cleaner Natural Gas which North America sits on the world's largest reserves.

Here is a 3rd party story that shows the big change over:

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html

A research story by The Guardian that shows the dominate production of Electricity in the US will be by Natural Gas by 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/14/gas-surges-ahead-of-coal-in-us-power-generation

Here is our own government details showing that Natural Gas Production of Electricity surpassed Coal in 2016 4 years ahead of original expectations.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392

2/3rds of CO2 output by Dirty Coal has been removed since they started the switch to Natural Gas production in the 90's.

Now is the time to start the transition to EV Auto's.

And to Solar and Wind and away from even natural gas as a fuel.

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Everyone armchairing the future has been talking about the banning of IC, but I can see plenty of room for co-existence way into the future. Once IC in new vehicles becomes a minor percentage (for conversation- let's say IC gets to 20%), there's no longer a reason to ban them; they'll become a statistical non-factor. Regardless, I still believe the following 2 general things; that new EV vehicles WILL become a majority of vehicles sold, and that this 'flip' will take 50 years minimum.

Again I remind; we've had a 'successful' PHEV from a major OEM for 15 years now, there are currently 3 dozen PHEVs/ EVs on the US market, and the marketshare is still only 1% at the end of this year.
Those saying 'most of the market will be EVs in 12 years' are being woefully ignorant of the trending.

A plethora of relevant examples exist; look at set belts- mandated for front passengers since January 1966, in everything built since (initially front outer passengers only), takes 2 secs to apply, has empirical evidence of effectiveness, most states (if not all) assign fines for non-use.... but only at (it's historical high) 90% useage in 2016. That's 50 years of trying to instill a habit that takes 2 seconds.

Edited by balthazar
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11 hours ago, riviera74 said:

I would say it is much easier to crack down on CO2 pollution on power plants first, then go after cars.  One coal-fired plant will pollute more than thousands of cars at any one time.  2030 may well be the beginning of the end of the ICE in vehicles, but I would rather see no more power plant emissions first.  Afterwards, then the zero-emission vehicle mandates can start.

And they have been cracking on power plants. That’s the point that Mr. Anti-EV does not get while talking about cows and other non-related crap. There have been efforts almost accross the board to reduce CO2, yet he says “why bother” just because of his half baked hang up of EVs. The horse and buggy industry would be proud of him. Oh wait. They don’t exist anymore.

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6 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

And they have been cracking on power plants. That’s the point that Mr. Anti-EV does not get while talking about cows and other non-related crap. There have been efforts almost accross the board to reduce CO2, yet he says “why bother” just because of his half baked hang up of EVs. The horse and buggy industry would be proud of him. Oh wait. They don’t exist anymore.

They do in Amish Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.  Thriving, actually.  But a tiny percentage of the actual transportation market.

Just like ICE in 2065.

30 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Everyone armchairing the future has been talking about the banning of IC, but I can see plenty of room for co-existence way into the future. Once IC in new vehicles becomes a minor percentage (for conversation- let's say IC gets to 20%), there's no longer a reason to ban them; they'll become a statistical non-factor. Regardless, I still believe the following 2 general things; that new EV vehicles WILL become a majority of vehicles sold, and that this 'flip' will take 50 years minimum.

Again I remind; we've had a 'successful' PHEV from a major OEM for 15 years now, there are currently 3 dozen PHEVs/ EVs on the US market, and the marketshare is still only 1% at the end of this year.
Those saying 'most of the market will be EVs in 12 years' are being woefully ignorant of the trending.

A plethora of relevant examples exist; look at set belts- mandated for front passengers since January 1966, in everything built since (initially front outer passengers only), takes 2 secs to apply, has empirical evidence of effectiveness, most states (if not all) assign fines for non-use.... but only at (it's historical high) 90% useage in 2016. That's 50 years of trying to instill a habit that takes 2 seconds.

Agreed...but we should be continuing the transition.  I want everyone to enjoy the same freedom that I do in owning a car.

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

 

Again I remind; we've had a 'successful' PHEV from a major OEM for 15 years now...

Yes, and the last time I was in NYC all of the dirty, polluting inefficient crown vics had largely been replaced with vehicles like the Prius....same thing in LA when my wife was there just recently, lots of hybrids on the road...

At some point when fuel prices spike cars like the Prius will become the norm.

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19 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Notice those two words... "...from VEHICLES".  There is still the problem of CO2 from ALL THOSE OTHER SOURCES THAT ARE NOT BEING REGULATED ONE BIT.

Sly insertion to show his displeasure.  And there are millions of people just like him.  This is being forced on people who do not want it, and it will not solve a problem because there is no problem to be solved.

Some/Many of the other man-made sources are targeted for regulation as well. 

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The only thing that I think Toyota has wrong here is the timeline.  First off, existing cars will not be gone. But new production cars will likely be down to EV only.

2050 is only 33 years away.

Today, the most technologically advanced cars on the road are PHEVs and EVs like the S-Class PHEV, CT6 PHEV, Chevy Bolt EV, and Tesla Model-S.  This is the powertrain diagram for the CT6 PHEV. Aside from the CT6's transmission which is the most advanced hybrid transmission available, the concepts and technologies of this car are the same as the Fusion Energi or Pruis Prime.... I only picked this picture to show the technology, I realize it is not an average person's car.

6a00d8341c4fbe53ef01bb08bc4f49970d-800wi.png

 

33 years ago the average midsize car was powered by a carbed V6 or V8.  The 1984 Thunderbird was one of the most advanced average person car. It had Central Fuel Injection... which was basically a glorified carb with a single fuel injector instead of vacuum operated jets. Numerous manufacturers were still running carbed engines for an additional 8 years.   In another thread here on C&G we are talking about the new Corvette V8 that has two different kinds of fuel delivery systems, and in that regard it is about 3 or 4 years late to the party. Think about the level of technological difference between a 1984 Thunderbird and a 2017 CT6 PHEV or Pruis Prime.

605878_1.jpg

33 years prior to that Thunderbird was 1951 and this was one of the most advanced average person's car on the road.  Think about the technology difference between a 1951 Olds with its "High Compression V8" and the 1984 Thunderbird.

3601455266_cba1f434f9_z.jpg

33 years before that and you were in a Model-T.

122_97aa066dcc42404e7602768333af5659_m.jpg

33 years before the Model-T, you could get a Studebaker with between one and four horsepower.

5e10d5d0586407969eb6faa7a4850a50.jpg

The point of this thought exercise is to help you keep in mind what is possible in the span of 33 years.

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Like the computer industry and Moore's Law that explains the doubling of computer power every 24 months, battery technology is in the early days of where CPU technology was in the 90's and we have blown way past that. 

Battery tech is also ramping up fast from Air batteries and the first one to prove 1,100 miles on a single charge to various other forms. What happens over the next 2-3 years will truly change the way people live life and get around.

http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

This story is recent and covers the whole battery industry, the various options and the amazing size and density that is just now going to production. Samsung has finalized a solid state battery that will out last their current Li batteries by a factor of 3.

If we did not have the Internet and the advanced technology we have today, I would agree with Balthazar that we are looking at 50 plus years to transition much like how the auto industry started from 1876 to 1915 when ICE auto's clearly won the battle. Yet we no longer live in a years to get info out to humanity and I actually expect this to change much faster than many here will realize. Look at how fast people change phones, computers and just about everything else. Humanity likes to have the best, sooner and faster than others the Jones - Jones competition will allow a faster change over to EV's than the PHEV has done.

Simpler, less maintenance cost and easy to use as it blends with today's modern technology.

We know it is not a matter of if but when. I believe the start is this year 2017 and by 2030+ we will see a majority of new auto's be EV and the death of new auto sales from ICE will be over by 2040-2045.

Few Charts to show the growth:

BatteryDensity.png

DensityCells.png

DevelopmentOfLithium.png

EnergyDensity.jpg

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10 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

We ahve a really cool house in Columbus built by people in that business....ten years after it was built, they went broke...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1330-Bryden-Rd-Columbus-OH-43205/33846110_zpid/

Image result for 1330 bryden road columbus ohio

It is slowly being rebuilt by a very determined individual...no one else has been in the house for something like 30 years...

Scientists warning to humanity about global climate change and other things that will happen if we keep using fossil fuels;

http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Ripple_et_al_11-3-17 Scientists main text.pdf

Who do i believe...13,000 plus scientists or an automotive body shop estimator from Lancaster PA with an admitted bias against electric cars?

Yeah Chris, I'm the ONLY ONE out here with this opinion.  Bull crap.

There is not that much difference between the 1951 Oldsmobile and the 1984 Thunderbird though.

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Here's a real world, industry comparison:

toyota prius prime, overall length 183", MSRP $27100, projected 2017 sales : 20,018
toyota corolla, overall length 183", MSRP $18500, projected 2017 sales : 347,928

Seems like it would be easy-peasy to nudge their customer base into an PHEV the same size; despite the maybe 2 price tiers higher buy-in, it has an eMPG rating of 133.

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33 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Yeah Chris, I'm the ONLY ONE out here with this opinion.  Bull crap.

There is not that much difference between the 1951 Oldsmobile and the 1984 Thunderbird though.

No you are not the only one but you are part of an ever shrinking minority that wants to cling to the past and bitch and moan like what you are saying is going to change a single thing about progress and technology. All I have to say is “buck up” becuase it’s not changing just becuase you can’t or won’t see the writing on the wall. 

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      168,595
      -2.4
      -2.4
      1,941,859
      1,916,355
      1.3
      1.3
      TOTAL LEXUS
      27,118
      29,050
      -6.7
      -6.7
      269,671
      290,046
      -7
      -7
                        YARIS IA (INCL SCI IA)
      2,549
      1,684
      51.4
      51.4
      33,819
      25,986
      30.1
      30.1
      YARIS LIFTBACK
      202
      1,031
      -80.4
      -80.4
      8,450
      10,112
      -16.4
      -16.4
      TOTAL YARIS
      2,751
      2,715
      1.3
      1.3
      42,269
      36,098
      17.1
      17.1
      iQ
      0
      0
      0
      0
      0
      6
      -100
      -100
      xD
      0
      0
      0
      0
      2
      9
      -77.8
      -77.8
      xB
      0
      2
      -100
      -100
      0
      2,677
      -100
      -100
      tC
      0
      168
      -100
      -100
      197
      9,234
      -97.9
      -97.9
      COROLLA IM (INCL SCI IM)
      1,423
      1,515
      -6.1
      -6.1
      19,064
      15,920
      19.7
      19.7
      COROLLA SEDAN
      17,864
      26,747
      -33.2
      -33.2
      290,163
      331,081
      -12.4
      -12.4
      TOTAL COROLLA
      19,287
      28,262
      -31.8
      -31.8
      309,227
      347,001
      -10.9
      -10.9
      86 (INCL FR-S)
      456
      513
      -11.1
      -11.1
      6,421
      6,900
      -6.9
      -6.9
      MIRAI
      249
      105
      137.1
      137.1
      1542
      918
      68
      68
      AVALON
      2,453
      4,326
      -43.3
      -43.3
      30,156
      43,029
      -29.9
      -29.9
      PRIUS
      8,149
      10,495
      -22.4
      -22.4
      99,180
      124,188
      -20.1
      -20.1
      CAMRY
      34,991
      28,189
      24.1
      24.1
      343,750
      355,206
      -3.2
      -3.2
      TOTAL TOYOTA DIV. CAR
      68,336
      74,775
      -8.6
      -8.6
      832,744
      925,266
      -10
      -10
                        CT
      8
      550
      -98.5
      -98.5
      4,681
      7,935
      -41
      -41
      IS
      2,458
      3,571
      -31.2
      -31.2
      23,705
      32,857
      -27.9
      -27.9
      RC
      826
      881
      -6.2
      -6.2
      6,677
      10,123
      -34
      -34
      ES
      3,911
      4,097
      -4.5
      -4.5
      46,351
      52,060
      -11
      -11
      GS
      739
      1,201
      -38.5
      -38.5
      6,857
      13,553
      -49.4
      -49.4
      LS
      358
      440
      -18.6
      -18.6
      3,788
      4,905
      -22.8
      -22.8
      LC
      280
      0
      0
      0
      2,197
      0
      0
      0
      LFA
      0
      0
      0
      0
      3
      6
      -50
      -50
      TOTAL LEXUS CAR
      8,580
      10,740
      -20.1
      -20.1
      94,259
      121,439
      -22.4
      -22.4
      TOTAL TOYOTA CAR
      76,916
      85,515
      -10.1
      -10.1
      927,003
      1,046,705
      -11.4
      -11.4
                        SIENNA
      7,670
      9,253
      -17.1
      -17.1
      102,548
      116,622
      -12.1
      -12.1
      C-HR
      3,391
      0
      0
      0
      21,889
      0
      0
      0
      RAV4
      28,736
      28,116
      2.2
      2.2
      375,052
      314,940
      19.1
      19.1
      FJ CRUISER
      0
      1
      -100
      -100
      4
      9
      -55.6
      -55.6
      VENZA
      0
      4
      -100
      -100
      14
      588
      -97.6
      -97.6
      HIGHLANDER
      19,077
      21,241
      -10.2
      -10.2
      194,734
      165,954
      17.3
      17.3
      4RUNNER
      10,103
      8,628
      17.1
      17.1
      116,342
      100,481
      15.8
      15.8
      SEQUOIA
      1,009
      1,123
      -10.2
      -10.2
      11,004
      11,196
      -1.7
      -1.7
      LAND CRUISER
      282
      345
      -18.3
      -18.3
      2,710
      3,249
      -16.6
      -16.6
      TOTAL TOYOTA DIV. SUV
      62,598
      59,458
      5.3
      5.3
      721,749
      596,417
      21
      21
                        TACOMA
      16,195
      15,531
      4.3
      4.3
      179,419
      174,117
      3
      3
      TUNDRA
      9,700
      9,578
      1.3
      1.3
      105,399
      103,933
      1.4
      1.4
      TOTAL TOYOTA DIV. PICKUP
      25,895
      25,109
      3.1
      3.1
      284,818
      278,050
      2.4
      2.4
      TOTAL TOYOTA DIV. TRUCK
      96,163
      93,820
      2.5
      2.5
      1,109,115
      991,089
      11.9
      11.9
                        NX
      5,404
      5,120
      5.5
      5.5
      51,931
      47,509
      9.3
      9.3
      RX
      10,102
      10,269
      -1.6
      -1.6
      94,356
      94,553
      -0.2
      -0.2
      GX
      2,432
      2,307
      5.4
      5.4
      23,865
      21,674
      10.1
      10.1
      LX
      600
      614
      -2.3
      -2.3
      5,260
      4,871
      8
      8
      TOTAL LEXUS TRUCK
      18,538
      18,310
      1.2
      1.2
      175,412
      168,607
      4
      4
      TOTAL TOYOTA TRUCK
      114,701
      112,130
      2.3
      2.3
      1,284,527
      1,159,696
      10.8
      10.8
      Selling Days
      25
      25
          280
      280
          DSR = Daily Selling Rate
                   
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