Jump to content

So much for the theory that economies of scale will be seen soon in BEVs.


Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, balthazar said:

In case you lost count; we're in the 4th month. 

Screen Shot 2021-04-13 at 11.51.35 PM.png

This seems to be consistent across the board for everything. September last year, 1/2" x 4 x 8 sheet of plywood was $24, Then after the mess of power outage in Texas, the same wood item doubled to $48 a sheet and now Home Depot is asking $80 a sheet. 

EVERYTHING seems to have increased in cost due to the incompetence's of greed out of Texas.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, David said:

EVERYTHING seems to have increased in cost due to the incompetence's of greed out of Texas

Top Plywood Companies and Manufacturers in the USA and Worldwide (thomasnet.com)

Hmmm, I don't see ONE company located in Texas.  Not sure what power outage has to do with plywood or Tesla price increase.  Care to expand?

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Did anybody promise lower plywood prices though? 

No one promises lower prices, but the greed of the power companies there affected the core of the adhesive companies that produce what is used by the plywood companies and as such, prices and supply have jumped crazy high.

If the Texas power companies bit the bullet of investing in protecting their infrastructure when this last happened, companies would not be out of power, people would not have died due to freezing and so much more. Yes I stand by my statement that the greed of the texas unregulated power companies is costing us all.

19 minutes ago, ykX said:

Top Plywood Companies and Manufacturers in the USA and Worldwide (thomasnet.com)

Hmmm, I don't see ONE company located in Texas.  Not sure what power outage has to do with plywood or Tesla price increase.  Care to expand?

If you look at the adhesive and other components that are used in production of plywood the core of them are all located in Texas. The power outages that could have been avoided if the unregulated greedy power companies had been forced to protect their generation stations and transmission for adverse weather the last time it happened and we would not be seeing such huge jumps in products from Plywood to gas. Texas Greed of the power companies has had a major ripple affect across the whole country.

Everything has gone up greatly in cost due to just core basic gas costing so much more as we seem to have foot dragging to restart gas production sites in Texas, then you have the chemical companies that had to restart and now are having higher costs to get their products to market. 

Ripple affect is wide and big and it affects everything including building auto's.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, David said:

No one promises lower prices,

Then it makes zero sense to compare. 

We' get a post from you almost once a week where some EV company or technology come out saying prices will go down. 

  • Confused 1
  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Then it makes zero sense to compare. 

We' get a post from you almost once a week where some EV company or technology come out saying prices will go down. 

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, truly proving the saying of common sense is not so common.

Let me break this down for you then. The post is about economies of scale not working for EVs when prices are going up.

I point out that it is hard to lower prices when costs are going up due to greed of companies. 

We have shortages of chips, basic supplies to go into making so many components and as those costs go up, they are passed along to the customer. As such, it is understandable that especially now with the backlog of ships still needing to get through another example the sueze cannel after the container ship blocked it for over a week that cost are going up. 

That does not mean long term economy of scale will not still work to lower costs. Right now, greed has played a major role in so many things being more expensive than they need to be. I pointed out how the ripple effect of the greed of the unregulated power industry in Texas has driven up the costs of items across the board.

Your freedom to agree with me or not.

I just pointed out why costs are increasing. This is the same for ICE auto's, prices are continuing to go up due to shortages and material costs going up. So no difference between ICE or EV.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

'Electric' plywood isn't trying to compete with 'gas' plywood for price parity. The analogy doesn't apply here.

Plywood (and lumber) cost spiking started in the summer of '20 on the East Coast. I know because I priced a deck in May, and had to adjust the price when I actually bought material/built it in Sept. It's primarily COVID-affected.
Looked today, and 15/32 sheathing ply is $57 here @ the HD. It was $48 about a month ago, so still going up some, but the bulk of the increase came before the winter.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Problem is...that GM has nixed their cheapest model that was 15 000 dollars in 2021.  

For 2022, GM's cheapest model is a whopping 25 000 dollars.  10 000 dollars MORE expensive...   

GM even killed off a sedan (Malibu) whose  base price was 23 000.  Like I said, the cheapest Chevy one could buy now is 25 000.  

Sorry Balthy.  Your argument here is non-existent.   The Model 3 is on price parity with SEVERAL GM  ICE offerings...

 

 

 

Edited by oldshurst442
  • Upvote 2
  • Downvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Trailblazer starts at $19K, Trax @ $21K.
2021 Spark is still here @ $13K, Malibu at $22K.

BTW, what exactly was I arguing?

I forgot...the Trailblazer.

Spark and Malibu are gone for 2022.

You sooooo want to make a case for BEVs being expensive.  Get over it...

Average transaction prices of new car sales in the US are just a tad below to what a Model 3 sells for... The mythical 35 000 dollar Model 3 never showed its face. But does it matter?  The Model 3 flew off the shelf anyway. It still does. And if Elon could eek out MORE money from future consumers, then why not?

Its still early in the 2020s.  We got a whole decade ahead of us. A whole decade of battery tech improving and actually becoming cheaper to produce.

It. Will. Happen.

PS:  It STILL doesnt change the fact that GM has, in effect, ALSO raised its prices by limiting the amount of cheaper models to sell.  A move that you yourself have blasted Tesla for doing.   

Tesla has eliminated the mythical 35 000 model 3 option and you didnt like it.  GM has done the same for 2022 by getting rid of the Spark AND a 23 000 dollar Malibu effectively only having one shytty 20 000 dollar Trailblazer to offer the poor folk to buy.

What happened to a century plus of ICE tech to offer the poor folk some transportational ICE options for their transportational ICE needs? 

 

 

Edited by oldshurst442
  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Firstly, my commentary on Tesla's pricing increase is to counterpoint a narrative seen repeatedly here; that BE's prices are going to "come way down" and even "be below equivalent IC vehicles". Other than the Bolt, it's not happening. OEMs can charge whatever they like, and nothing is cheap anymore, just don't try and convince me that any future economies of scale / "much" simpler powertrains is going to make BE's any cheaper than they are now. Because to date; there's no evidence of that. Maybe it happens down the road... but we've been along this road for years now.

BTW, the $35K Model 3 did happen; it was an 'off-menu' availability... for 6 months before Musk yanked it. And that's fine if it works for whatever business case Musk has in mind.... but he DID repeatedly push that price tag 'carrot' in the face of his $90-110K other models.

I never heard GM selling the $38K Bolt by saying it would be $25K or the like in the future. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

This page is proof of two things:

 

1. Some people have a problem with context.

 

2. Some people just want to bitch for the sake of bitching because they think they have to accomplish some kind of mystical “gotcha” moment. 

8 hours ago, balthazar said:

 

Firstly, my commentary on Tesla's pricing increase is to counterpoint a narrative seen repeatedly here

 

And you (and a few others) have beat that horse to death. Maybe it’s time for a new argument. 

  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, balthazar said:

Trailblazer starts at $19K, Trax @ $21K.
2021 Spark is still here @ $13K, Malibu at $22K.

BTW, what exactly was I arguing?

And all of those models (with the exception of the TB due to it short time out) have gradually gone up in price with every passing year. Again, it should be stated that BEV cost savings have been mostly with batteries in mind. It does not take into consideration how those BEVs will be packaged or optioned before they are shipped off to dealerships. Same reason why ICEs engines have gone down in certain costs while the cars they go into have not. There is a clear distinction to made here if folks bothered to actually see it instead of the endless back and forth and dead horse beating about "Well, David said they'd be cheaper and they're not so lets continually attack him while not understanding the context of what he was saying in the first place". Apparently one week timeouts have not changed this habit for some.

20 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Did anybody promise lower plywood prices though? 

Actually the timber industry has had a history of promising lower prices on lumber while rarely delivering on it, going all the back to the early 1900s. They are still doing it despite the sharp increase in lumber prices over the last year. It's an easy search.

Edited by surreal1272
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I feel you are omitting the competition factor here.

Plywood, I suppose, only competes with OSB, tho I imagine the same companies manufacture both. Its pricing is directly tied to supply & demand, having no 'MSRP'. If I want to buy plywood in my tri-county area, it's pretty much the same price everywhere. If I want to buy a vehicle in my area (even excluding the used market) the price range is enormous. 

BE's have to compete with IC directly for the consumer, and vehicles are built by a multitude of companies. Price is the primary factor for consumers.

Look at it this way- if the Model 3 came out at $25K, where do you think it's sales (sans production limitations) would be?

Edited by balthazar
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

Same reason why ICEs engines have gone down in certain costs while the cars they go into have not.

The only reason ICE vehicles considerably increased in costs is because now active safety systems became standard.  That alone increased costs of all vehicles by at least $3-5k.  Before active safety systems came into play the yearly increase in vehicle cost was only few hundreds at most to compensate for the inflation.

The price disparity between comparable  ICE and BE vehicle is still significant and so far doesn't seem to decrease.  It might change in the future, but as of right now it is a valid argument.  It is a dead horse argument already but so is getting daily bombarded about other side of the argument which you seems to ignore.

 

Edited by ykX
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

^ Not sure it's that specific; on the Silverado/Sierra, the active safety features package is optional, and costs $890.
I do think electronics in general are responsible for most of the recent price escalations.

I can easily see calling claims of 'BE's are going to cost the same or less than ICs' as "misinformation".  ;) 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Supply down + Demand Up = higher prices.... not that hard.

Prices for nearly everything are going up. It has nothing to do with BEVs.  It has to do with everything from lumber to microchips being in short supply.

Also... prices for used and new gasoline powered vehicles is going up too, so at worst, BEVs are just keeping pace with the industry as a whole.

Furthermore, no one gave a date as to when the cost of BEVs would dip below ICEs, so calling that misinformation is substantially premature.  The big, experienced manufacturers like GM and MB have been awoken like a sleeping dragon and the new BEV platforms coming from them are going to be serious entries, not just an electric motor thrown in one of their gasser models with a bunch of laptop batteries in the trunk. As of about 3 years ago, they all started taking BEVs seriously.

There will be economies of scale as the cells of a Silverado don't need to be any different in composition than the cells in a Bolt... the only difference will be quantity.  GM will no longer need to build 197 different powertrain combinations, it will be reduced to 10 (if memory serves, it's somewhere in that ballpark of a delta in powertrains). There will no longer be a need for complex 10-speed transmissions. No AWD systems. No exhaust systems. There won't be complex electro-mechanical systems to turn cylinders on and off while driving. There won't be turbo-chargers. There won't be those electronic shutters that close a grille at speed. All of that stuff listed that needs to be engineered and re-engineered every 5 - 7 years will go away.

None of that is in place today and no one claimed it would be in place by today, but you have the combined industrial might of GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Hyundai, Telsa, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, and others working on it.

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Prices going up. Economy not fully recovered. Supply shortages. Money printer going brrrr...

I think of the following words.

Stagflation... And 

A word that starts with 'C' and ends with 'm'.

In Canada - (no incentives for people to work below a certain income level, reducing productivity and making costs go up).

Oops I might be derailing thread. Please no one entertain the kind of word I was thinking.

Yeah lumber prices are bad. I heard Canada (where I live) might be limiting exports due to the cancellations of keystone too. Not sure if true or not.

As for Tesla cars. I don't think any car maker could sell those cheap Wuling things yet in NA. I don't see the price points ever going lower, maybe some more features for the money down the line.

And Tesla is about to be inundated with competition. I think their position is not nearly as strong as when the Model Y came out. Paper tiger maybe.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Supply down + Demand Up = higher prices.... not that hard.

Prices for nearly everything are going up. It has nothing to do with BEVs.  It has to do with everything from lumber to microchips being in short supply.

Also... prices for used and new gasoline powered vehicles is going up too, so at worst, BEVs are just keeping pace with the industry as a whole.

Furthermore, no one gave a date as to when the cost of BEVs would dip below ICEs, so calling that misinformation is substantially premature.  The big, experienced manufacturers like GM and MB have been awoken like a sleeping dragon and the new BEV platforms coming from them are going to be serious entries, not just an electric motor thrown in one of their gasser models with a bunch of laptop batteries in the trunk. As of about 3 years ago, they all started taking BEVs seriously.

There will be economies of scale as the cells of a Silverado don't need to be any different in composition than the cells in a Bolt... the only difference will be quantity.  GM will no longer need to build 197 different powertrain combinations, it will be reduced to 10 (if memory serves, it's somewhere in that ballpark of a delta in powertrains). There will no longer be a need for complex 10-speed transmissions. No AWD systems. No exhaust systems. There won't be complex electro-mechanical systems to turn cylinders on and off while driving. There won't be turbo-chargers. There won't be those electronic shutters that close a grille at speed. All of that stuff listed that needs to be engineered and re-engineered every 5 - 7 years will go away.

None of that is in place today and no one claimed it would be in place by today, but you have the combined industrial might of GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Hyundai, Telsa, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, and others working on it.

While we keep hearing this, I have a hard time believing they will pass ANY of those savings to the consumer. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Supply down + Demand Up = higher prices.... not that hard.

Prices for nearly everything are going up. It has nothing to do with BEVs.  It has to do with everything from lumber to microchips being in short supply.

Also... prices for used and new gasoline powered vehicles is going up too, so at worst, BEVs are just keeping pace with the industry as a whole.

That's looking at the short term tho. Price spiking is as best 15 months old. Prior to, of course the unilateral inflationary cost increases were there.
Vehicle inventory shortages are COVID-driven, of course affecting the used market (tho there demand was well down, also for a while). I'd have to say the used market is 'fluid' currently and will continue to be for some time.

>>Furthermore, no one gave a date as to when the cost of BEVs would dip below ICEs, so calling that misinformation is substantially premature.<<
I disagree. Stating it NOW with no evidence to support it, is premature. As I said; that arguably could be called 'misinformation'.

>>The big, experienced manufacturers like GM and MB have been awoken like a sleeping dragon and the new BEV platforms coming from them are going to be serious entries, not just an electric motor thrown in one of their gasser models with a bunch of laptop batteries in the trunk. As of about 3 years ago, they all started taking BEVs seriously.

There will be economies of scale...<<

I look forward to seeing these 'Major OEM' BE products (esp in the truck segment), but I have to agree with the skepticism of ccap41; there's nothing in place I've seen that will have manufacturers pass those EoS savings onto consumers. In fact, the very fact that countries / cities are ticking onboard with banning IC sales at random near-future dates takes enormous pressure off BE OEMs to lower prices; Gov'ts are 'beating down' their major competition for them. Yes, as stated; major OEMs are also going to produce mainstream BEs... but why would they NOT equal the going MSRP rates, esp when the current profit margins are so razor thin / non-existent?   

 

Edited by balthazar
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ccap41 said:

While we keep hearing this, I have a hard time believing they will pass ANY of those savings to the consumer. 

There is just enough competition out there that someone will do it.  Once all the biggies get into it, someone will break.  Of the major manufacturers, I would guess Hyundai/Kia will be the first to do it as they like being a disrupter. If they can do this as a way to further undermine Toyota/Honda who are way behind everyone else (and in Honda's case, relying on GM for technology) they'll take that shot in a heartbeat.   If not them, it will be Ford.  GM has taken the stance of everything they make being "premium" and "premium price". They aren't even interested in catering to the lower end of the market even in ICE vehicles.  Take away the Spark which no one buys, their lowest priced vehicle is the Trailblazer in base trim... but that's a catalog only model... nearly all of them are LT or higher trim starting at $25k.

25 minutes ago, balthazar said:

>>Furthermore, no one gave a date as to when the cost of BEVs would dip below ICEs, so calling that misinformation is substantially premature.<<
I disagree. Stating it NOW with no evidence to support it, is premature. As I said; that arguably could be called 'misinformation'.

Then so is the weather report. If the only weather report you believe is the raindrops on your head, there's not much I can do to help you.  You see, I also have an app on my phone that shows me the radar and wind direction in Ohio so that I know that rain is still coming my way.  

25 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I look forward to seeing these 'Major OEM' BE products (esp in the truck segment), but I have to agree with the skepticism of ccap41; there's nothing in place I've seen that will have manufacturers pass those EoS savings onto consumers. In fact, the very fact that countries / cities are ticking onboard with banning IC sales at random near-future dates takes enormous pressure off BE OEMs to lower prices; Gov'ts are 'beating down' their major competition for them. Yes, as stated; major OEMs are also going to produce mainstream BEs... but why would they NOT equal the going MSRP rates, esp when the current profit margins are so razor thin / non-existent?

Right now, the majority of the cost of BEVs is in the batteries. Electric motors are relatively cheap compared to a turbo V6 or something like that.  They're substantially easier to manufacture.  Will a 2025 Silverado BEV be cheaper than a 2021 Silverado? Of course not and neither will the ICE 2025 Silverado.  But just like hybrids the cost difference will diminish until they reach an inflection point.  There will also be a period of time where manufacturers will hold prices higher because they can.  Just like Tesla working what you don't pay in gasoline into their monthly payment, the other manufacturers will "sell" that aspect as part of the advantage of going electric.  And they'll be able to do that until one of the manufacturers breaks in order to try and corner the market as I mentioned above. 

Quote

GM will no longer need to build 197 different powertrain combinations, it will be reduced to 10 (if memory serves, it's somewhere in that ballpark of a delta in powertrains). There will no longer be a need for complex 10-speed transmissions. No AWD systems. No exhaust systems. There won't be complex electro-mechanical systems to turn cylinders on and off while driving. There won't be turbo-chargers. There won't be those electronic shutters that close a grille at speed. All of that stuff listed that needs to be engineered and re-engineered every 5 - 7 years will go away.

Again... There will come a time when the manufacturers stop spending money on developing these parts.  A few manufacturers have already stated they're not creating any new ICE engine families, what they have now it going to be it for the next 15 or so years. They'll do tweaks where they need to, maybe pair a smaller engine up with an electric motor, but I think we have already seen our last all-new V8 from a major manufacturer. GM and Ford may each squeak out one more big revision of their current V8s, but it won't be a clean-sheet design. V6es won't be far behind... with the current trend in turbo-charged 4-cylinders, there is zero reason for a manufacturer to invest in a new clean-sheet V6. The newest Jeep I6 could be the last new 6 from a major manufacturer that we see.  GM's latest engine developments were the I-3s... GM probably already developed their last V6.  I don't expect any more revisions to the 3.6.  The 3.0TT will live for a while in Cadillacs, but the Lambdas will go Turbo-4 and I4 Hybrid next go-round. The 3.6 will live on in the Canyon/Colorado for a while until they put the 2.7T in there instead, probably at the next full-redesign. 

As always... follow the money.... and the money flowing to ICE engine development is trying up.

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Then so is the weather report.

OK, so we agree. ;)

Of course; consumers don't buy different choices of weather from the Weather Corporation, for varying amounts of high finance.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, balthazar said:

OK, so we agree. ;)

Of course; consumers don't buy different choices of weather from the Weather Corporation, for varying amounts of high finance.

No, we don’t agree. Because with the weather I can see when a hurricane is on its way. I don’t know exactly where it will land but I know it’s coming.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



About us

CheersandGears.com - Founded 2001

We ♥ Cars

Get in touch

Follow us

Recent tweets

facebook

×
×
  • Create New...