Will Competition Destroy Tesla?

[David]

32 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Everything is for sale, not sure what you mean by "nothing that seems available to sell."

Just as I stated, while yes, you can create an account and buy online with a delivery date so everything is for sale from that stand point, in the past, Tesla usually at this store had a few used ones for sale in the front parking area, now nothing so other than what is on the show room floor and I would think a tester for test drives, it would appear nothing used. Here Tesla if someone trades in an ICE auto, they move it to wholesale for off loading as I have only ever seen used BEVs at the stores around the PNW.

Yup, still available.

[ccap41]

3 minutes ago, David said:

Just as I stated, while yes, you can create an account and buy online with a delivery date so everything is for sale from that stand point, in the past, Tesla usually at this store had a few used ones for sale in the front parking area, now nothing so other than what is on the show room floor and I would think a tester for test drives, it would appear nothing used. Here Tesla if someone trades in an ICE auto, they move it to wholesale for off loading as I have only ever seen used BEVs at the stores around the PNW.

Yup, still available.

Good lord that's an ugly automobile...

[David]

@oldshurst442 Thank you for your response as you hit the NAIL on the Head about the EQS versus the S-Class. 

I could not think of the world to describe what was lacking about the EQS and you did, STATELY!!!

Stately is clearly on the S-Class but missing from the EQS.

I will say that Toyota Ever Sells their Century Sedan in North America, Mercedes will be in Trouble. The latest version is a Hybrid that is all Kinds of Stately. Toyota has said they will be looking at making it BEV too.

Toyota Century Beats Mercedes EQS both externally and Internally.

This is what will beat Tesla is if they choose to sell the Century outside of the Asian Rim.

[David]

Toyota Century Website

Century | Vehicle Gallery | Toyota Brand | Mobility | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

TOYOTA LINE-UP | TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION WEBSITE

TOYOTA CENTURY | TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION WEBSITE

Very Stately

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, David said:

Just as I stated, while yes, you can create an account and buy online with a delivery date so everything is for sale from that stand point, in the past, Tesla usually at this store had a few used ones for sale in the front parking area, now nothing so other than what is on the show room floor and I would think a tester for test drives, it would appear nothing used. Here Tesla if someone trades in an ICE auto, they move it to wholesale for off loading as I have only ever seen used BEVs at the stores around the PNW.

Yup, still available.

Two each to the east and east of me and all four are "base" models, i.e. no hyper screen equipped models.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

18 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Two each to the east and west of me and all four are "base" models, i.e. no hyper screen equipped models.

Corrected in bold because auto-correct sucks.

[smk4565]

19 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

I’d have to dig through the old archives here but you were singing a different tune about brand recognition and subsequent customer loyalty not so long ago. The only thing that changed since then is that now Mercedes has dipped their toes into the EV pool. Just stop the bar moving and stop the damn excuses for once. 

Brand loyalty is important, but Tesla has sold maybe 4 million cars in their history, Toyota has sold hundreds of millions.  Toyota can roll out that electric SUV and have the 10 million RAV4 owners that are out there come in for it.  It is an easy conversion for them.  Tesla is mostly going after people that never had a Tesla, never had an EV.  And they have done a great job of that, but they have been the only game in town.  Today Ford, Hyundai, Porsche and Mercedes have 1 real EV, there are the Kona and Niro EV compliance cars, GM. has the Bolt which isn't really being produced and the low volume Hummer.  What happens when those companies have 10-20 EV's each and not 1-2?  Then we'll see how good Tesla is.

[smk4565]

3 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Two each to the east and east of me and all four are "base" models, i.e. no hyper screen equipped models.

 

Still nicer than a Model S, and I suspect the 580 will outsell the 450.

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

Toyota can roll out that electric SUV and have the 10 million RAV4 owners that are out there come in for it.

That's a monsterous 'IF'!  I'm sure that's the hope, but the reality remains to be seen.

Is it at all legit to compare the sales figures of the corolla and the prius?
2019 prius ($24K) : 59,010
2019 corolla ($20K) : 304,850

^ Why aren't those numbers reversed?

Edited April 4, 2022 by balthazar

[surreal1272]

53 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Still nicer than a Model S, and I suspect the 580 will outsell the 450.

Only a Benz fan would say that like it was something to brag about, forgetting that you still have to see the outside of it everyday before you actually get in to drive it. Audi and Porsche both shame Benz in these regards. And no, the much pricier 580 will not outsell the base model 450. Again, only a Benz fan would say something like that with a straight face. 

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

Brand loyalty is important, but Tesla has sold maybe 4 million cars in their history,

Correction. Tesla has sold 4 millions EVs and already has repeat buyers since they have been doing this for a decade now. Simply amazing that you don’t see that. 

Edited April 4, 2022 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

S-class U.S. sales peaked way back in 2006 @ 30,886 units. Most years it hovers in the low teens.

Wonder what the EQS will do; volume-wise.  It seems that mercedes is following Tesla & GM in going to quarterly sales numbers; at least I couldn't find any sales numbers for the EQS other than the 1st month in Dec.

Edited April 4, 2022 by balthazar

[surreal1272]

@smk4565—You said this barely a year ago. What changed?

 

“More EV's from Ford, VW, or anyone else, is just moving sales from gas to electric, it isn't stealing Tesla sales and taking them down.“

 

But now you say the exact opposite using your Toyota example. 

[David]

Pointed out by a fellow team member who will remain anonymous, 

Tesla bucked the industry with its Q1 results — now TSLA is seeing momentum (teslarati.com)

A switch to EVs like Tesla could save US public health system $1.2 trillion by 2050 (teslarati.com)

Tesla Model 3 with bolt-on parts matches Porsche 911 GT2 RS record at Buttonwillow (teslarati.com)

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

That's a monsterous 'IF'!  I'm sure that's the hope, but the reality remains to be seen.

Is it at all legit to compare the sales figures of the corolla and the prius?
2019 prius ($24K) : 59,010
2019 corolla ($20K) : 304,850

^ Why aren't those numbers reversed?

Probably because a Corolla hybrid is $23,750 starting price and gets 52 mpg, it is looks better, is probably roomier, sort of makes the Prius pointless.

And they have that 300 hp Corolla coming, that will add some spice to the line up.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

@smk4565—You said this barely a year ago. What changed?

 

“More EV's from Ford, VW, or anyone else, is just moving sales from gas to electric, it isn't stealing Tesla sales and taking them down.“

 

But now you say the exact opposite using your Toyota example. 

They aren't stealing from Tesla, Tesla had it's best year ever in 2021, Q1 of 2022 was better than last year.  Currently their sales are still climbing.

And yes Toyota and the others will move customers from gas to EV.  Suppose Toyota sells 10% of their total volume in EVs, that is over 900,000 EVs.  They aren't going to do that this year, but what if they are at 10% in 2025 and 30% in 2030, then were are talking like 3 million EV's a year, and if they are all EV in 2040, we are talking about 10 million EV's.  I don't know if Tesla becomes a 10 million unit per year car company, maybe they do, but when everyone has EV's, Tesla's novelty will wear off some.

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, David said:

A switch to EVs like Tesla could save US public health system $1.2 trillion by 2050 (teslarati.com)

https://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/topic/95399-rubber-numbers/#comment-912190

 

[surreal1272]

4 hours ago, smk4565 said:

They aren't stealing from Tesla, Tesla had it's best year ever in 2021, Q1 of 2022 was better than last year.  Currently their sales are still climbing.

And yes Toyota and the others will move customers from gas to EV.  Suppose Toyota sells 10% of their total volume in EVs, that is over 900,000 EVs.  They aren't going to do that this year, but what if they are at 10% in 2025 and 30% in 2030, then were are talking like 3 million EV's a year, and if they are all EV in 2040, we are talking about 10 million EV's.  I don't know if Tesla becomes a 10 million unit per year car company, maybe they do, but when everyone has EV's, Tesla's novelty will wear off some.

Way to miss the point and your hypocrisy by a country mile yet again. 

[surreal1272]

What you missed there @smk4565 is that every first time Tesla buyer was once an owner of a gas powered car from another maker. Do you see the connection yet?

[ccap41]

To go back to the original question, and I don't know what my original opinion was, but, I don't think competition will destroy Tesla. 

I believe they are very well established at this point, their sales are pretty great, they have great technology, and people love them. 

I believe they are too well established to fail, unless they make multiple major mistakes, which DOES happen. 

I also believe they will need to start to get out all-new vehicles out. I don't necessarily think they need a larger portfolio, but I think an all-new Model S should be a thing relatively shortly(1-2 years) with the rest of the lineup following suit. I don't think a truck was a bad idea but I think their design language choice for it may hold it back after the initial WOW-factor purchases. 

[balthazar]

Coming soon : full reveal of upcoming DeLorean electric ~ 

 

[surreal1272]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Coming soon : full reveal of upcoming DeLorean electric ~ 

 

I’ll believe it when I actually see a production one. They have promised past iterations of one only to end up vaporware. 

[balthazar]

K; I've only heard about this for maybe a half year now. 
They've been diddling with the 'continuation' DeLoreans for years & years tho. 
And this is the first visual I've seen (vs. -say- the cyber truck reveal in Nov of 2019).

Edited April 5, 2022 by balthazar

[David]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

K; I've only heard about this for maybe a half year now. 
They've been diddling with the 'continuation' DeLoreans for years & years tho. 
And this is the first visual I've seen (vs. -say- the cyber truck reveal in Nov of 2019).

You are not wrong, part of the problem was securing all rights to the name, auto, etc. That they did clear up at the end of 2019 and then the pandemic hit, so I figure this is a good sign that they are finally starting to move forward with all the talk of a pure electric Delorean car. 

They have also said that a SUV is possible, but that I believe is true vaporware at this point. Let them get the car out and see how it does.

[riviera74]

15 hours ago, David said:

You are not wrong, part of the problem was securing all rights to the name, auto, etc. That they did clear up at the end of 2019 and then the pandemic hit, so I figure this is a good sign that they are finally starting to move forward with all the talk of a pure electric Delorean car. 

They have also said that a SUV is possible, but that I believe is true vaporware at this point. Let them get the car out and see how it does.

If this is real as opposed to vaporware, would the late John Z DeLorean approve?

[ccap41]

I have little to no faith there will be a new DeLorean outside of maybe a few hundred built. 

[David]

2 hours ago, riviera74 said:

If this is real as opposed to vaporware, would the late John Z DeLorean approve?

I do not see why not as his name is still on the auto.

57 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I have little to no faith there will be a new DeLorean outside of maybe a few hundred built. 

True, this is a very small company, I expect it to stay a niche builder.

[balthazar]

^ Probably so- the market for a 2-seat sports car is small.

After decades upon decades of relative stability in the global auto industry, then a spate of discontinuances circa the early 2000s, I suspect another round of venture failures is in the works - the market overall isn't exponentially-expanding volume-wise... but there are a whole host of intended new OEMs trying to make a go at it (some with severely lopsided expectations). This potential expansion of volume is going to 'carve the pizza' into smaller & smaller slices, AND see some intended OEMs never get off the ground / fail soon after.