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Will Competition Destroy Tesla?


David

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11 hours ago, David said:

Cash Flow Problem? Hell Yes he does, what part of he just lost $500 Million in Carbon Credit sales with only a $430 Million profit means he is cash positive?

If he did not have a sales problem, then he would be selling millions globally rather than a few hundred thousand.

The auto business has not been profitable yet if you look at the SEC filings, he had Tesla turning a profit due to Carbon Credit sales to other auto makers and now that the mergers have addressed those needs, the sales have stopped, so yes, Tesla has a Cashflow problem.

Tesla has near $20 billion in cash, no cash flow problem.  

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8 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla has near $20 billion in cash, no cash flow problem.  

According to actual stock filing as of the end of Q1, they had $17.141 billion. With all the construction at Texas, Germany and Nevada, that can disappear overnight if payment from various companies was demanded.

Cash flow in regards to sales, is a different matter.

Tesla Cash on Hand 2009-2021 | TSLA | MacroTrends

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10 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla has near $20 billion in cash, no cash flow problem.  

And that is a bit of an illusion that can go up in a flash with one bad year (or increased competition form literally everyone else). A snippet from one article regarding their cash flow.

 

Be reminded that debt repayment and refinancing do not fall into the operating activities of the company and hence, it’s not part of the cash outflow or cash inflow discussed here

 

https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/tesla-cash-position/

On 6/11/2021 at 8:12 PM, smk4565 said:

The just delivered the first Plaid models, fastest 0-60, fastest 1/4 mile of any production car, safest car in the world, infotainment has as much power as a PS5, 187 miles of charge in 15 minutes, faster around Laguna Seca than a McLaren P1 or a Corvette ZR1.  I'd say he gave some tangible gain.  Sure there are features it doesn't have, and it would be nice if Tesla had more models or if the Model S had more of a change to the body styling, but people are still buying and it's still the fastest car with a lot of tech.

Must be why their ATP is around $50K, which in case you haven’t been paying attention, means that FAR more folks opt for the cheaper models than they do the $140K models, much like certain other high priced makes. They might actually move a thousand of those a year, which is a drop in the bucket against overall sales. Nice to have on the brochures but it doesn’t really do much for the bottom line.

Edited by surreal1272
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@smk4565 You really to pay attention here and read this article. Their profit hasn’t even come from their product, but a shell game of carbon credits and selling off bitcoin. Tell us again how that is good for the long term bottom line.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a36266393/tesla-made-more-money-selling-credits-and-bitcoin-than-cars/

Edited by surreal1272
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2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

@smk4565 You really to pay attention here and read this article. Their profit hasn’t even come from their product, but a shell game of carbon credits and selling off bitcoin. Tell us again how that is good for the long term bottom line.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a36266393/tesla-made-more-money-selling-credits-and-bitcoin-than-cars/

I know that is how they have done it, doesn't mean they will always do it.   I am not concerned with their financial health, and investors wouldn't have put $600 billion into this company if they were concerned either.

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Investors get in & out at the snap of their fingers. There's never been a dividend, so buy in, if it rises an appreciable amount; sell out.
The company's financial health is marginal; that's not why investors bought in. They bought in for the (stock) ride.

And BTW, I'm sure those that bought in between $600 and $900 are plenty concerned. 

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Compare to a stock like Exxon-Mobil. It doesn't move much, price-wise (tho right now it's 100% above it's 52-wk low). But it pays a dividend- last one I saw was .87 cents/share. Have 500 shares and Exxon is paying you around $1750/yr. So even if the stock flatlines, your money is making you money. Take it as cash or buy another 28 shares and earn $1850 in dividends next year.  

Tesla gives you nothing.

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56 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

I know that is how they have done it, doesn't mean they will always do it.   I am not concerned with their financial health, and investors wouldn't have put $600 billion into this company if they were concerned either.

So again, ignore the actual facts about product and try to cover with some nonsense about investors who, has Balth clearly stated, were in it for the stock ride. It sure as hell isn’t for the unreliable product that has yet to put them in the black long term. A third of those have already dropped them on a dime because issues the last five months. 
 

Just a little screenshot about those “non” worried investors and Tesla. 
49476BD0-1A19-4980-AA87-D0299266290C.thumb.png.a8555f89ee10784da1dae8f1c4f0797b.png

Edited by surreal1272
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1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

Well if Tesla runs into financial trouble, they can just get a government bail out like GM and Ford did, and Chrysler did twice.  

And way to deflect. Fun fact. They’ve been getting bailouts since day one but maybe you missed that part while not coming up with an actual argument. Without those subsidies, they would have went under years ago. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/08/03/tesla-subsidies-how-much/amp/

 

Got any other cute and non-sensical remarks you want to make?

Edited by surreal1272
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@smk4565 Oh and Ford didn’t take a bailout like GM and Chrysler did. Furthermore, the last time I checked, Chrysler was under Daimler just prior to their bailout but shhhhh, we don’t talk about the failings of German companies and this isn’t about them or the traditional domestic makes anyway. This is about the house of financial cards known as Tesla. 

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3 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Well if Tesla runs into financial trouble, they can just get a government bail out like GM and Ford did, and Chrysler did twice.  

You really need to look at the hard facts of Tesla, Current Valuation to Debt to Equity.

Tesla Current Valuation vs Debt to Equity | TSLA (macroaxis.com)

This makes it pretty clear that Tesla has some big hurdles.

As long as Tesla can keep a crazy high stock price, they have a low debt to Equity, but that does not ensure they can survive long term on the current valuation as markets swing and if they do not start producing a real profit from their products, the Debt to Equity ratio can change to a very large negative.

image.png

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So they're just going to build more & more & more cars at a $6 grand loss on each one??? 9 years of this shit business model and no profits, only driven by the whim of a perpetually-distracted ego-maniacal billionaire?

He's going to get bored and wander off at some point.

How long would you do YOUR job if you had to PAY to be there?

Edited by balthazar
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10 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I don’t really care if Tesla goes bust or not.  But they aren’t going to go bankrupt or stop selling cars.  It just isn’t going to happen.

Actually you seem to care an awful lot given the rabid defense of them. Furthermore, if they go bankrupt, it will be exactly because of their cars since that is supposed to be their main business.

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Tesla is not going to go bankrupt. At least not in the 2020s.  In the 2030s...who knows?

Too many "investors" have poored too many billions into this to just let it fail.  

However, if Tesla CARS dont overtake the competition in sales market share, then who knows what will happen next. Consumers NEED to BUY your vehicles to STAY IN business...  THAT is just how...business works.

However, if Tesla cars wont exist, Tesla powertrains and batteries IS a thing and Tesla could provide THAT to OEMs that dont want to invest the billions developing their own tech.  

Volkswagen Group or GM might not be those that would buy Tesla powertrains and batteries as they have their own technologies...but...  

Toyota might.   They have fallen behind.

Honda might.  Honda will be buying GM tech, but having another option like Tesla might benefit Honda...

Mercedes might also.  Mercedes EV tech is pathetic as of now...

Keep in mind that VW does outsell Tesla is certain markets NOW.

Keep in mind that the Ford Mach E also has eroded Tesla market share.

GM EVs that actually compares to Tesla, like the GMC Hummer EV, well, the Hummer EV has a very very healthy amount of down deposits for one.   Tesla like craze about the Hummer with people... 

 

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2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

If you (almost) never make a profit as a manufacturer, bankruptcy is inevitable. The regular production 'history' of Tesla really begins with the Model S, which came out in 2012

Id say with the Roadster 1.0 

Tesla was considered a legit car company even with just that car and it was just a conversion job.  Elon wanted a legit Tesla EV with a REAL EV platform and that is how the Model S came about, but Tesla as a company starts with the Roadster as the REAL Tesla technology and raison d'etre is the battery tech and electric motor.  

To this day, Tesla is considered a tech company with their battery tech, motor and software front and center ahead of their car production...

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12 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I don’t really care if Tesla goes bust or not.  But they aren’t going to go bankrupt or stop selling cars.  It just isn’t going to happen.

With out a real profit companies cannot survive for ever and Tesla is having problems. As I stated earlier, Tesla has one of the lowest Net Profits per company around.

image.png

$11,000 per employee is pathetic especially when compared to GM.

image.png

General Motors Financial Company Inc Net Income per Employee (GM), current and historic results, rankings and more, Quarterly Fundamentals - CSIMarket

As anyone here with common sense will agree with, the higher the profit per employee, the more stable the company is and the longer that company can stay in business.

Examples as of today of some of the highest profit makers:

Profits per employee

image.png

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23 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Yes, you need to make a profit OR sell technology and/or the company. Bankruptcy isn't inevitable if you're not making a profit. 

Tell that to early 2000s GM and Chrysler.

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14 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Tell that to early 2000s GM and Chrysler.

In all honesty...GM's "bankruptcy" was not a conventional one.

It was a solvency that was restructured.

Because there actually was revenue streams that were coming in.  Pretty SUBSTANTIAL revenue streams at that.  Its just that a lot of waste and fat had to be trimmed and why a restructure was presented as a solution instead of liquidating the company and dissolving it.

Tesla on the other hand, is not like GM where there is a healthy revenue stream from actual selling of cars.  

Tesla does spend billions in factories and their proprietary EV charging network which negates their revenue streams as the revenue coming in just goes directly back into the company. HOWEVER...much data including Sandy Munroe concludes that Tesla's manufacturing of automobiles is very very inefficient.  

GM did not have that problem.  

Sales were also there for GM.  (Tesla's market share going forward after 2023-2024 is under scrutiny too) 

GM's problems were that they had an enormous amount of expenses.  Not even debt.  Their debt load WAS manageable. Banks did not want to loan them money BECAUSE there was an over all (and global) bank meltdown (thanks to greedy American bank mortgage loans etc)...  It was their expenses that really did them in.    

 

Edited by oldshurst442
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WARNING BELLS WARNING BELLS

One of Warren Buffett's market indicators has hit a record 133% and it was this way when the market crashed on the Dot-Com Bubble Burst. This could have huge destructive consequences for companies that do not make a profitable product line like Tesla and other BEVs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/warren-buffetts-favorite-market-indicator-surges-to-a-record-133percent-signaling-global-stocks-are-overvalued-and-at-high-risk-of-crashing/ar-AAL1Smg?li=BBnb7Kz

image.png

Additional indicators are showing extreme over value too.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-200-percent-stocks-overpriced-market-crash-2021-6-1030486280

image.png

This is an outstanding read on why Buffett feels so strongly about specific indicators for where the market is at.

Warren Buffett On The Stock Market

https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm

https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/20/05/15936592/heres-what-warren-buffett-thinks-about-tesla-and-elon-musk

 

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