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Will Competition Destroy Tesla?


David

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2 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

In all honesty...GM's "bankruptcy" was not a conventional one.

I know the fine details but it was still because they weren't making enough profit to keep afloat, a result of putting out $h!ty products for decades. My core point stands.

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Profit is such a delicate definition...especially when it comes to corporate capitalism. But that is neither here nor there. 

The conversation SHOULD steer itself AWAY from all other OEMs and it should really JUST BE about Tesla.

Tesla's revenue streams are a delicate issue. There is revenue. From all kinds of sources. But as far as the revenue streams that are DIRECTLY related to its car selling business, and how efficient it could build them, well, this is where the problem lies for Tesla.

It does sell enough cars for a viable revenue stream. Heck, that revenue stream helps Tesla put money back into the company with Tesla's construction of battery fabrication factories AND car fabrication factories and it also helps investors tom continue to invest in Tesla's stocks.  THAT is a good thing as money that Tesla needs to use is there for various projects that need to be made in the future.

But...

Tesla's manufacturing is inefficient and costs money to the company.  

THAT leads to Tesla having quality issues too, which also cuts into the bottom line.  

Market erosion is also happening from at least 2 OEM giants (VW and Ford of all places) and from China's car companies and there hasnt been a full onslaught of competition yet from any of the OEMs.  GM hasnt entered the fight yet. But its coming here and in China...

Side track from GM and contrast:

GM's manufacturing inefficiencies was only because there were too many brands...NOT because of a lack of an understanding of how to manufacture cars.   Unlike Tesla.  

GM's quality problems because of shytty bean counting...NOT because of shytty manufacturing.  Tesla over engineers in some places needlessly and under engineers in others. Not because of bean ccounting, but because of a lack of experience.  All GM had to do is NOT cheap out on the processes...

GM's market erosion WAS because of cheap bean counted products...BUT GM still had and still has a very very healthy market share. People bought and continue to buy GM products.    Tesla is being questioned even by those investors who truly believe in them right now.    Its funny, even when GM was dragged through all that mud during the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s. 10s and now 20s, especially during the bankruptcy, GM was NEVER questioned  about their existence.  Many people wanted their solvency, but even those people, they just knew GM was really not in danger of selling any cars... 

Can we say the same with Tesla now?

Selling carbon credits is not a way to keep a business afloat.

Tesla has to figure out a more efficient way to manufacture a vehicle.  The Cybertruck is said to be engineered in a way for Tesla to make money.  But the Cybertruck wont be selling in any high volumes to KEEP Tesla afloat. If the Cybertruck indeed ever goes on sale to begin with.

Their bread and butter model...the Model 3 and Model Y , even with the new manufacturing plant in China...is still a manufacturing mess...

Again...something that GM in 2009 NEVER had to face...

 

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My point being:

Tesla's car manufacturing may fail them to the point of where consumers might not want to buy Tesla vehicles. Especially if Tesla does not give a proper 2nd generation to their current crop of cars.  The Roadster 2.0 is a halo car.  If it didnt exist, Tesla could have used the Model S as its halo car so by having a Rodster 2.0 in the line-up wont change much.  However, if a 2nd gen Model S does NOT show up anytime soon, anything from Cadillac or Porsche or Audi and anybody else that could meet and especially beat the Model S' performance specs in speed and in battery and range performance, Tesla is SCREWED!!!   And I could feel it in my gut, that GM WILL meet and beat Telsa's tech.  VW too.   And if the marketing hooh-la-la of  Lucid is genuine,  not good for Tesla and the Model S IF the Model S stays as a gen 1 offering.

And THEN when THAT happens, then the bread and butter  models WILL be affected.  ESPECIALLY if the Model 3 and Model Y dont get gen 2s, but even if they stay with that gen 1 look...because as we see with the Ford Mach E, a new, shinier model will ALWAYS sell better than an older, passé vehicle.

And when THAT happens, because Im afraid it will, revenue streams from selling cars will dwindle, carbon credit sales will be non-existent and then the car making business for Tesla is done for.  

But like I said earlier, Tesla's powertrain and battery tech is still second to none.  Even if VW and GM could and will meet and beat it, its still on top and Tesla could just relegate itself to sell its platforms to OEMs.   And this would be a great money making endeavor for Tesla. 

Powered by Tesla could be a very powerful marketing tool for many body shell "coach builders".  Something a reminisce about it from the pioneering days... 

 

 

Edited by oldshurst442
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Tesla could and should be selling conversion package in a box. Much the way GM sells their connect and Cruise in a box.

Tesla should have a RWD and AWD package that includes the controllers, motors, and a choice of battery size. Then sell the connection bits so people can choose what they want to go into a conversion. Their powertrain and controller tech is top notch and while a few companies like EV West resell refurbished parts as well as some new parts, Tesla would do wise to copy GM's success with the Connect and Cruise which is transmission, motor, wiring harness and CPU. 

This way, Tesla can get an additional revenue stream selling to 3rd party conversion companies.

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10 minutes ago, balthazar said:

MAN is that an ugly & cheap looking interior! Rental-car grade by appearances.

Right! Makes one question the mind set of people spending $130,000 and up on a rental car plastic interior. :puke:

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16 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a36715189/jay-leno-production-quarter-mile-record-tesla-model-s-plaid/

 

 

Jay however, talks about American ingenuity when talking about the Model S Plaid....a necessary uptake as compared to the bashing that is done in this thread.

Very happy for Jay as he did indeed make a land speed record in the Tesla S Plaid. Thanks for posting, saw this in the morning and was going to post it, but just did not get to it. Thank you.

I take nothing away from what Tesla has accomplished in regards to the EV powertrains, controllers and Battery tech. This just continues to confirm how fast the future will be on BEVs.

Quarter Mile in 9.43 seconds @ 152 mph.

Jay Leno tries to break record in Tesla's new Model S Plaid on 'Jay Leno's Garage' - YouTube

Jay makes a valid point on an American made sedan that costs $130,000, a lot of money and yet destroys cars like Bugatti, Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc. 

The Tesla S Plaid is a bargain in compared to the multi-million supercars. He believes it will take 30 to 50 years to convert people.

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10 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Actually you seem to care an awful lot given the rabid defense of them. Furthermore, if they go bankrupt, it will be exactly because of their cars since that is supposed to be their main business.

I am just defending reality.

2 hours ago, David said:

Right! Makes one question the mind set of people spending $130,000 and up on a rental car plastic interior. :puke:

They did before for a slower Corvette ZR1.

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10 hours ago, ccap41 said:

I can't see them going bankrupt anytime soon but they probably need to start turning a profit here shortly, too. 

The wealthy and well connected, the billionaires out there, they would never let Tesla fold, they'd lose billions.  If Tesla went bankrupt, it would hurt the wealthy far more than if Ford and GM and all 3,000 of their dealers closed on the same day.  Look at the pandemic, when 10s of millions of people were out of work, the billionaires added $1 trillion in wealth.  The super rich aren't going to take a multi-hundred billion dollar loss on Tesla folding, thus Tesla will never fold.  

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Sooo, why don't the controlling 'billionaire illuminati' "make" Tesla stock go to $3400/share (like Amazon) or $426,000/share like Berkshire Hathaway? Someone has to be the first trillionaire. 😆

The so-called 'super rich' certainly aren't only OR primarily invested in Tesla, and they likely already made their money. Like so many CEOs; they reap their benefits, pull the cord and jump... onto the next financial transport. They don't give a shit about the company itself.

BTW... how did the 'billionaire illuminati' -who all "love electric car stocks" allow Lordstown to drop to $9.26 /share? A stock that was $10 on 06/20 and shot up to $30 by 09/20? Shouldn't it be $300-$500 by now? Who was asleep at the switch??

Edited by balthazar
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1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

The wealthy and well connected, the billionaires out there, they would never let Tesla fold, they'd lose billions.  If Tesla went bankrupt, it would hurt the wealthy far more than if Ford and GM and all 3,000 of their dealers closed on the same day.  Look at the pandemic, when 10s of millions of people were out of work, the billionaires added $1 trillion in wealth.  The super rich aren't going to take a multi-hundred billion dollar loss on Tesla folding, thus Tesla will never fold.  

You are SO WRONG!

The Billionaires DO NOT CARE and ARE NOT invested in Tesla like you think. The ones propping it up is the average man with 401K plans and single business people who run their own small company and have IRA, Roth accounts, SEP-IRA's or Solo 401-K's. The bulk of Tesla is propped up by institutional investment houses pumping the average persons funds into the company.

TSLA 617.69 7.80 1.28% : Tesla, Inc. - Yahoo Finance

image.png

These companies are NOT investing for Billionaires, but the hard working men and woman of this country.

image.png

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15 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Sooo, why don't the controlling 'billionaire illuminati' "make" Tesla stock go to $3400/share (like Amazon) or $426,000/share like Berkshire Hathaway? Someone has to be the first trillionaire. 😆

The so-called 'super rich' certainly aren't only OR primarily invested in Tesla, and they likely already made their money. Like so many CEOs; they reap their benefits, pull the cord and jump... onto the next financial transport. They don't give a $h! about the company itself.

BTW... how did the 'billionaire illuminati' -who all "love electric car stocks" allow Lordstown to drop to $9.26 /share? A stock that was $10 on 06/20 and shot up to $30 by 09/20? Shouldn't it be $300-$500 by now? Who was asleep at the switch??

I am not saying they can make anything happen, but I am saying the power in this country is with the super wealthy, like it or not.  And a $600 billion company is not going to come crashing down because it would cost them too much.

Lordstown Motors will also probably never amount to anything.

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6 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

I am not saying they can make anything happen, but I am saying the power in this country is with the super wealthy, like it or not.  And a $600 billion company is not going to come crashing down because it would cost them too much.

Lordstown Motors will also probably never amount to anything.

But the 'billionaire illuminati' don't 'win' buy buying Tesla at $600/share; they get in when it's $30/share and ride it uphill. 

Where's the 'super rich' push to pump up another 'Tesla' (Lordstown)?? Who cares if they ever make a profit- that's apparently irrelevant.

Perhaps it simply doesn't work like your conspiracy theory says.

Here's a secret- billionaires actually LIKE the occasional big loss- it offsets all the other 'wins'.
Did you catch that ridiculous ProPublica release on the rich & taxing all wealth?

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4 minutes ago, David said:

You are SO WRONG!

The Billionaires DO NOT CARE and ARE NOT invested in Tesla like you think. The ones propping it up is the average man with 401K plans and single business people who run their own small company and have IRA, Roth accounts, SEP-IRA's or Solo 401-K's. The bulk of Tesla is propped up by institutional investment houses pumping the average persons funds into the company.

TSLA 617.69 7.80 1.28% : Tesla, Inc. - Yahoo Finance

image.png

These companies are NOT investing for Billionaires, but the hard working men and woman of this country.

image.png

1 billionaire owns 22.4% of the outstanding shares as of December 31, 2020.  227,131,935 shares to be precise.  

And where do other billionaires put money?  In Mutual funds and institutions.  

According to Forbes.com:

According to the latest Fed data, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of $34.2 trillion (or 30.4% of all household wealth in the U.S.), while the bottom 50% of the population holds just $2.1 trillion combined (or 1.9% of all wealth).

The Fed estimates that the wealthiest 10% of Americans hold more than 88% of all available equity in corporations and mutual fund shares (with just the top 1% controlling more than twice as much equity as the bottom 50% of all Americans combined).

 

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4 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

I am not saying they can make anything happen, but I am saying the power in this country is with the super wealthy, like it or not.  And a $600 billion company is not going to come crashing down because it would cost them too much.

Lordstown Motors will also probably never amount to anything.

Everything you are saying is what people heavily invested in Lehman Brothers was saying when that Crashed. A company that had $639 Billion in Assets with $613 Billion in Debt and at the crashed caused $111 Billion dollar lose, everything overnight when their smoke and mirrors was blown away by the wind. The rest was a wash that people still today are trying to recover from.

The Clear Points of why Tesla's house of cards could cause another global depression like Lehman Brothers.

Causes of Lehman’s Bankruptcy

Lehman’s bankruptcy had four underlying causes:4 

 
  1. Risk. The bank had taken on too much risk without a corresponding ability to raise cash quickly. In 2008, it had $639 billion in assets, technically more than enough to cover its $613 billion in debt. However, the assets were difficult to sell.5 As a result, Lehman Brothers couldn’t sell them to raise sufficient funds. That cash flow problem is what led to its bankruptcy.
  2. Culture. Management rewarded excessive risk-taking. Lehman’s chief risk officer said that top management ignored many of her risk-management strategies.5 Top managers wanted to stay ahead of competitors that also used high-risk strategies, and they also thought the company was too smart to fail. 
  3. Overconfidence. The firm relied on complicated financial products based on quick real estate growth just as the real estate market began to decline.2 Between 2000-2006, its revenue grew 130% thanks to early successes with mortgage-backed securities.6In 2003-2004, Lehman Brothers bought five mortgage lenders, which allowed it to originate and underwrite subprime loans, increasing its profitability.7 In March 2006, Lehman bought heavily into commercial real estate and risky loans and instead of selling them right away, it kept them on its books. Management thought it would make more money owning these assets but its timing couldn’t have been worse, as real estate prices were falling.
  4. Regulator Inaction. The Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators didn’t take action. As early as 2007, the SEC knew Lehman Brothers was taking on too much risk, but the agency never required Lehman to do anything about it.6 It also didn’t publicly disclose to rating agencies that the bank had exceeded risk limits. 

The Lehman Brothers Collapse and How It's Changed the Economy Today - TheStreet

The Collapse of Lehman Brothers: A Case Study (investopedia.com)

Lehman Brothers Collapse: Causes, Impact (thebalance.com)

 

 

Just now, smk4565 said:

1 billionaire owns 22.4% of the outstanding shares as of December 31, 2020.  227,131,935 shares to be precise.  

And where do other billionaires put money?  In Mutual funds and institutions.  

According to Forbes.com:

According to the latest Fed data, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of $34.2 trillion (or 30.4% of all household wealth in the U.S.), while the bottom 50% of the population holds just $2.1 trillion combined (or 1.9% of all wealth).

The Fed estimates that the wealthiest 10% of Americans hold more than 88% of all available equity in corporations and mutual fund shares (with just the top 1% controlling more than twice as much equity as the bottom 50% of all Americans combined).

 

List the link of this solo Billionaire that owns per your statement 22.4% of Tesla?

Most Billionaires have their own group of folks investing for them, not investment firms.

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8 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

 smoke and mirrors, my friend.  smoke and mirrors.  

 

It's still $600 billion.

And look at how Elon manipulates the markets.  A month ago he was divorcing bitcoin and the price cut in half.  No doubt he (and Tesla) were buying in low and building up more, and right on cue, he tweet yesterday that Tesla will accept Bitcoin when 50% is mined with renewable energy and the price is up 10% yesterday and 8% today.  And 3-4 months from now, Elon will tweet some meme he finds funny and say Tesla is accepting Bitcoin and the price jump again and he'll cash in.  And it's wrong that he does that, but these boneheads online react to whatever he does and that is how the money flows.

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8 minutes ago, David said:

Everything you are saying is what people heavily invested in Lehman Brothers was saying when that Crashed. A company that had $639 Billion in Assets with $613 Billion in Debt and at the crashed caused $111 Billion dollar lose, everything overnight when their smoke and mirrors was blown away by the wind. The rest was a wash that people still today are trying to recover from.

The Clear Points of why Tesla's house of cards could cause another global depression like Lehman Brothers.

Causes of Lehman’s Bankruptcy

Lehman’s bankruptcy had four underlying causes:4 

 
  1. Risk. The bank had taken on too much risk without a corresponding ability to raise cash quickly. In 2008, it had $639 billion in assets, technically more than enough to cover its $613 billion in debt. However, the assets were difficult to sell.5 As a result, Lehman Brothers couldn’t sell them to raise sufficient funds. That cash flow problem is what led to its bankruptcy.
  2. Culture. Management rewarded excessive risk-taking. Lehman’s chief risk officer said that top management ignored many of her risk-management strategies.5 Top managers wanted to stay ahead of competitors that also used high-risk strategies, and they also thought the company was too smart to fail. 
  3. Overconfidence. The firm relied on complicated financial products based on quick real estate growth just as the real estate market began to decline.2 Between 2000-2006, its revenue grew 130% thanks to early successes with mortgage-backed securities.6In 2003-2004, Lehman Brothers bought five mortgage lenders, which allowed it to originate and underwrite subprime loans, increasing its profitability.7 In March 2006, Lehman bought heavily into commercial real estate and risky loans and instead of selling them right away, it kept them on its books. Management thought it would make more money owning these assets but its timing couldn’t have been worse, as real estate prices were falling.
  4. Regulator Inaction. The Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators didn’t take action. As early as 2007, the SEC knew Lehman Brothers was taking on too much risk, but the agency never required Lehman to do anything about it.6 It also didn’t publicly disclose to rating agencies that the bank had exceeded risk limits. 

The Lehman Brothers Collapse and How It's Changed the Economy Today - TheStreet

The Collapse of Lehman Brothers: A Case Study (investopedia.com)

Lehman Brothers Collapse: Causes, Impact (thebalance.com)

 

 

List the link of this solo Billionaire that owns per your statement 22.4% of Tesla?

Most Billionaires have their own group of folks investing for them, not investment firms.

Tesla's debt is like $10 billion, they aren't like Lehman brothers that was taking advantage of Wall Street deregulation and defrauding people basically.

Elon Musk has 22.4% ownership of Tesla, 227M shares out of the billion or so outstanding.  You can google it.

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9 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

1 billionaire owns 22.4% of the outstanding shares as of December 31, 2020.  227,131,935 shares to be precise.  

And where do other billionaires put money?  In Mutual funds and institutions.  

According to Forbes.com:

According to the latest Fed data, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of $34.2 trillion (or 30.4% of all household wealth in the U.S.), while the bottom 50% of the population holds just $2.1 trillion combined (or 1.9% of all wealth).

The Fed estimates that the wealthiest 10% of Americans hold more than 88% of all available equity in corporations and mutual fund shares (with just the top 1% controlling more than twice as much equity as the bottom 50% of all Americans combined).

 

Seems those that even are still working there are jumping ship as Tesla insiders since Jan 1st 2021 has dumped $288,016,277.46 in share into the market. With GRACIAS ANTONIO J being the first one to sell off all of their stock in the company to the tune $138 million plus in just their holdings alone. If these people saw such long term growth, then why not hold onto some of the stock rather than sell it all off?

TSLA - Company Profile for TESLA, INC. - MSN Money

 

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10 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

It's still $600 billion.

And look at how Elon manipulates the markets.  A month ago he was divorcing bitcoin and the price cut in half.  No doubt he (and Tesla) were buying in low and building up more, and right on cue, he tweet yesterday that Tesla will accept Bitcoin when 50% is mined with renewable energy and the price is up 10% yesterday and 8% today.  And 3-4 months from now, Elon will tweet some meme he finds funny and say Tesla is accepting Bitcoin and the price jump again and he'll cash in.  And it's wrong that he does that, but these boneheads online react to whatever he does and that is how the money flows.

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Tesla's debt is like $10 billion, they aren't like Lehman brothers that was taking advantage of Wall Street deregulation and defrauding people basically.

Elon Musk has 22.4% ownership of Tesla, 227M shares out of the billion or so outstanding.  You can google it.

Why is it so hard for you to just be up front and post the links with valid facts rather than play shell games.

Tesla, Inc. 2020 Annual report 10-K/A (sec.report)

image.png

Now lets address that the majority of those Stocks are granted to him with purchase prices from $6 to $20 per share but cannot be accessed by him till between 2025 and 2030. It puts him down in the lower Billionaires list when one realizes he cannot actually purchase and sell the bulk of those shares. 

Big Question for the Shareholders is why is the Board granting shares to Musk 4 different times over the 2020 year at prices so ridiculously low? One can smell a rat here and truly not fair to shareholders who buy on the open market as well as other employees who just get a discount off the stock price on the street. Q1 was $6.24 up to Q4 at $70.01.  Something stinks in Demark as they say.

image.png

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24 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

It's still $600 billion.

No...it aint.   

Smoke and mirrors...

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are another beast all together, but  cryptocurrencies and Tesla perceived value are valued on the same smoke and mirrors principles.

When GM had to go through bankruptcy, the company's debts and expenses were put on one side and closed down and a new company emerged.  But THAT could only happen when there is a REAL value attached to a company.   

600 billion attached to Tesla is NOT a real value.  

Restructuring of GM had many valuable assets going for them.  

REVENUE streams WERE healthy for one.

Actual sales of automobiles is another.

Did you know that Pontiac's sales, Hummer's sales, SAAB's sales and Saturn sales in 2008, the year prior GM went bankrupt and FORCED to close down these brands had MORE sales than Tesla has now at their peak?

Pontiac in 2008 had 267 000 sales

Saturn had 188 000

Saab had 21 000

Hummer had 27 000

That makes a total of 535 000 units.  

Tesla produced 509 737 and delivered 499 550 in 2020...

GM SHUT DOWN brands that TOTALED MORE SALES than TESLA produces and delivers in 2020...

In 2009 at the bankruptcy these brands totaled half of that with 252 00 sales...

You put too much value in stock price values...stock price values are MANIPULATED...smoke and mirrors...

 

Edited by oldshurst442
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Interesting to see the latest patents that Tesla has been granted and many look like ones that have been given to other companies for ICE solution, the difference being EV solution now. Interesting.

TSLA Stock - Tesla, Inc. SEC Filings

Interesting to see their fillings and how much of the parts are coming in for building an American Sedan are from China.

Just a portion for the California plant.

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Clearly the stock market does not see the huge growth of Tesla and that makes me think we will see much more insider's dumping stock. Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Price/Earnings & PEG Ratios | Nasdaq

image.png

This right here shows that the Company is UPSIDE DOWN. Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Financials | Nasdaq

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This adds to my concern for Tesla as Musk has now stated he will not own any property or be tied to any single home. Always on the move living in different places every night seems to say he has a mental disorder.

Elon Musk re-lists ‘last remaining’ mansion at astronomical price of $37.5 million: ‘It’s a special place’ (msn.com)

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