I don't agree with all of it. Nice read, though. With the new lambdas, sales of the Trailblazer will drop- especially if there is no EXT model. The Lambdas will not, however, cover much of the market that the Trailblazer and Envoy do cover. The trailblazers are capable of towing more than 6,000 lbs.- and I doubt the new Lambdas or Equinox will come close to that.
I think that there are three kinds of people nowadays who want SUVs:
1. Those who want a good family car with seating for 5 or more- three rows of seats- usually women.
2. Those who want to appear rugged by driving a big, powerful SUV with big tires, a brush guard, and off road styling. These people may actually take thier SUV off road once or twice just to say that they did -young guys and girls...think Xterra, FJ, Jeep products...
3. Those who need the SUV for their capabilities. Either for off roading or its towing.
The Trailblazer EXT is no longer around to cover the first group. That is where the Lambdas (and the Equinox if they can fit a third row option). These people want a fuel efficent truckster that is safe. They probably wont' even install a trailer towing package on their SUV- and 95 percent of them will be 2wd.
Group 2 is a huge group as well. Just count all the Xterras and Jeep Libertys around. Most of those people don't take their trucks off road- but they wouldn't buy an SUV unless it came with a flashy yellow paint, big off road tires, legendary capability, and a poweful engine. At least half of these are 4x4, and many install aftermarket tires, grille guards, and some of these SUVs spend much of their time covered in mud. (I find that the ones with the grille guards are usually never taken off road)
I am certain that while people like myself in group 3 are not as common- we do exist and a good percentage of every truck-based SUV sales goes to people like us. We want a truck that can tow our boat, work trailer, or classic car. They need to be able to make it through the construction entrance of their building project without getting stuck and still have enough room inside to pick the kids up from soccer practice. These SUVs get used- and I fall into this group. We don't spend too much money on aftermarket parts or fancy grille guards, tires or anything- but we are probably the hardest on our trucks.
The trailblazer was trying to cover all three groups while Toyota has two mid-size trucks for this (Highlander for group 1, 4runner for group 2 and 3). The Equinox can handle the Rav4 if it can get a decent engine upgrade- but as far as midsize trucks- the Lambdas don't have a chance in groups 2 or 3. This is something that only a truck-based SUV can cover. GM should either update (minor update at least) the Trailblazer and Enovy, or introduce GMT355 based SUVs to go against the Xterra, Liberty, Grand Cherokee, and 4runner. There is still a market for these things. Nissan can tell you the success you can have if you stick to your roots (Xterra). The secret is that groups 2 and 3 don't need much more than a pickup platform with an off road package....cheap to please one of the most highly profitable segments. The Hummer H3 is too expensive for Group 2 and too fancy and trendy for group 3. A new Trailblazer should cover what the H3 is too expensive to do.
Now toyota will have the Rav 4 and Highlander for group 1, the FJ for group 2, and the 4runner for group 3. (undoubtedy there will be overlap, but a sale is a sale). The Equinox is a strong performer, but it is too small for some of the group 1 needs. The Lambdas are there for that. This leaves room for a new, tough looking Trailblazer that is free to appeal to a younger market and the working man at the same time.