carman21

60% cost reductions won't count for much when the key elements in their battery chemistry are now up dramatically since January 1st. Lithium prices alone is up over 80% YTD. And we haven't seen a global lithium mining production increase in three years. Artificially subsidized and mandated demand against a series of resources with a constrained supply chain that is in its infancy is a recipe for a major EV bottleneck that will throttle optimistic forecasts of exponential EV growth. 

On 2/20/2021 at 1:40 PM, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

It's a rapidly growing segment but, EVs are still largely cannibalizing hybrid sales and performance luxury sales. Many Tesla owners are would be Prius, Lexus hybrid,MB AMG,or BMW M buyers.

I think 30% EV market share may be pushing it without seeing how the market reacts to the diversification of the EV market. If the new entries build sales for the segment 30% could be right on target. I'm thinking more like 10% with half of the new cars being hybrids or BEVs in 2035. 

BEVs still require huge R & D costs. I'm all for electric drive trains. However, BEVs are not ready for prime time for most that aren't early adopters without heavy mandates or incentives.

In the real world thru 2030, we are just going to get plug in hybrids with some dedicated all-electric BEVs for compliance markets like California or Norway. Jaguar is niche enough to make this full BEV gamble with a bigger upside in the short run. We'll see if Toyota, Honda, & Hyundai's gamble with fuel cell EVs is wiser. 

We still haven't seen the Oil & Gas Industry's play to decarbonize transportation and energy. My money in on ammonia fuel cell EVs. Hydronitrogen fuels like ammonia are going to replace every single hydrocarbon fuel in our energy system in a potentially rapid timescale. With large scale national infrastructure and Ammonia prices per gallon on par with gasoline and diesel, it's just a matter of when. 

On 8/13/2020 at 5:23 PM, balthazar said:

"I know of many in my area' = statistically utterly meaningless in a circa 15 million unit volume.

Bingo!

On 7/29/2020 at 2:56 PM, David said:

I think at this point, many people who can work from home are deciding to hold off on buying ICE auto's awaiting the much lower maintenance and ease of charging from home selection of EVs that are coming.

EV's ROCK!

I'm doubtful a still niche product like BEVs are causing people to hold off buying a new vehicle. 

EVs do Rock nonetheless. 

And the Sonata gets crossed off my list for the next few years.  

If they wanted a big mouth for a front end they could have simply done this....

Ideally, we should switch from a CAFE mandate to an all-electric option mandate. This would 

1) Boost electric volume, creating greater economies of scale.

2) Greater competition would increase range and decrease costs of electrics

3) Rapid charging stations would become commonplace,since charging times are supposed to be dropping from 20 minutes to 2 within 5 years thanks to ultracapacitors . We could even mandate major gas stations offer rapid chargers to encourage the trend further, like we did with E85. 

4) I think this could get wide bipartisan support. 

I like the new styling of this truck. At least we can have this modern truck unlike the new Ranger.

Can you say Buick Skylark?

I don't know if I can

I sure hope not...

Buick is using no heritage names today, and I feel they shouldn't start now (if this were to come over as a Buick).

Regal is not a new name...

D'oH! I was thinking Lucerne-LaCrosse-Enclave-Verano at that moment... however, Regal is a name I like, so I'll let it pass However, I don't feel that Skylark resonates with today's marketplace. It's a name from the past that has no meaning today IMO. Chevy can get away with Camaro, Malibu, Corvette, Impala, and Silverado. GMC uses only one heritage name - Sierra - all others are post '92 (Yukon is the oldest, dating from its '92 introduction). And Cadillac should go back to real names - the alphanumerics are not great, though CTS has good market recognition at this point (and ATS is on its way).

I would love to see Buick have a Skylark compact and a Full-size sedan called LeSabre. instead we have Verano and LaCrosse, both names have zero value to me other than they are Buicks and great cars.

Can you say Buick Skylark?

I CAN!!

Amen to that!

Hopefully this is good news??

This thing is just butt ugly. The designer clearly was on crack. I would never even sit in Nissan Joke.

I'm personally not a big fan of this class. However, I suppose I'd be for the Sonic since it looks nicer to me.

Its much nicer than the goofball Beetle it replaces.

I just like the technology and the car itself, I hope GM finds a better place to put the battery pack.

I hope that US-made VWs have much higher quality than our current batch of VWs. My fiancee's father just brought ack a 2011 Jetta after two car through lug nuts, the second car had loose HVAC controls. VW may not be ready for prime-time. They better shape up!

I love eAssist, its exciting to know what kind of technology may be just around the corner to improve mpg.

Its still fairly evident that Detroit is not quite the center automotive universe as it once was.

This seems to be the last chance for the Swedish auto industry. I do not see how they can be appealing beyond Nordophiles.

Of course I'm an optimist, I hope Chrysler does better than ever. Either way by 2014, the Chrysler group will be in its best position since 1998.

Chrysler is once again going in the wrong direction, The primary reason I believe this is occurring is because Chrysler group is drifting without direction. Who thought of the brilliant idea to create a whole new brand called "Ram" when Chrysler is on life support? The simply fact is that Chrysler needs to consolidate into one brand simply called Chrysler. Yes, I hate to see two storied brands, Dodge and Jeep to disappear but, I do not believe in the long term survivability of any of the current four Chrysler brands. Here is my pipe-dream of what Chrysler should be.

2012 Model Year

Require that all Chrysler group dealerships sell Chrysler branded vehicles.

2013 Model Year

Restore the Penta-star as the insignia on all Chrysler branded products.

Launch Chrysler Jolt(sedan & 5-door) based on Fiat Punto

Launch Chrysler Caliber (sedan, coupe, & 5-door) based on the Fiat Bravo to replace Dodge Caliber & Jeep Compass

Launch Chrysler LeBaron (sedan, coupe, and convertible) co-developed by Fiat and Chrysler to replace Dodge Avenger and Chrysler 200

Launch Chrysler New Yorker to replace Dodge Charger & Chrysler 300, New Yorker V-8 models are called the New Yorker 300 and New Yorker 300C

All Dodge, Jeep, and Ram models relaunched as Chryslers as follows,

Ram full-size pick-ups => Chrysler Ram

Ram Dakota => Chrysler Dakota

Jeep Wrangler => Chrysler Jeep

Jeep Grand Cherokee => Chrysler Grand Cherokee

Jeep Liberty => Chrysler Liberty

Jeep Compass + Patriot => Chrysler Caliber 5-door

Dodge Avenger => Chrysler LeBaron

Dodge Caliber => Chrysler Caliber

Dodge Charger => Chrysler New Yorker

Dodge Challenger => Chrysler Challenger

Dodge Nitro => Chrysler Liberty

Dodge Grand Caravan => Chrysler Town & Country

Dodge Journey => Chrysler Journey

Dodge Viper => Chrysler Viper

I believe by 2014 Chrysler would be dramatically transformed from a has-been on life support to a major player in North America. By the end of the decade Chrysler will likely regain its independence and once again return to a position as powerful as they were before the Huns from Daimler-Benz raped and pillaged Mopar-land.

I fully realize that this at best is not going to happen but, in case Sergio Marchionne just happens to stumble upon this thread. Here ya go! Capisce?! Ciao!!!

I guess Buick will have two basic models,the Eco-Chic and the Euro-Chic.

The GM press conference videos will each be available for on-demand replay from their original URLs within two hours after each live stream ends. Replays remain available for at least eleven months.

Wouldn't be cheaper to just post it on youtube right after it happens? Just saying, its not like GM has money to burn. Not to mention it could be up for years.

Who the hell reads that dying rag. Don't they know they are not in a monopoly anymore, the truth will come out sooner or later. When it does, CR is dead.

Right or Wrong, Look at what Fox News(aka alternative viewpoint) has done to CNN and MSNBC, imagine if there was a Fox News equivalent to CR, Edmunds, Cars.com, etc.

The Times are indeed changing.

We will lose the drone media.

Long Live the FREE PRESS!!

IK that thing tops out any more than 32-33K it will be WAY overpriced. The LaX CXL starts at 29K and I can get a loaded LaX CXL AWD or CXS for about 37K. So the Regal will have to cost less than 40 large for a loaded model in order to sell. I am hoping/betting on a 23/24K-32/33K for a loaded one.

The all-new Regal is a great car that will sell very well for the segment. It should be considered that the

Regal 2.4L I-4 will likely boast a 33mpg figure when production ramps up since the Malibu 6-speed 2.4L I-4 has a 33mpg figure.

The Regal seems to be targeted directly at the Camry XLE I-4 and the Passat 2.0T. It will likely be priced around $24-26k.It

will ultimately be positioned fully against the Camry XLE, both the I-4 and V-6 variants by 2012 MY. With the Regal taking the

higher end of the midsize segment, the Malibu will likely tighten its line-up to avoid unnecessary overlap.