G. David Felt

2021 was a banner year for Porsche AG as it delivered for the first time world-wide 301,915 vehicles to customers. While this is the first time the company has ever sold 300,000 plus new vehicles in a year, it was done on the back of their 3 most popular models. Macan - 88,362 Cayenne 83,071 Taycan - 41,296 - First EV for the company, overtook the 911 sports car which sold 38,464 This was an 11% increase in sales over 2020. On top of this, 40% of the Porsche sold in Europe alone were Hybrid versions of the top two selling autos. Porsche says they will produce and sell half of all global sales as some form of EV, either pure BEV or Plug-in Hybrid by 2025. With this lofty goal in reach according to executives, they have set a goal of 80% of Global auto sales in 2030 shall be pure EV. To help achieve that, Porsche is investing in premium charging stations with partners globally in addition to their own 800 V charging systems at their dealerships. Furthermore, Porsche is investing in new battery technology such as solid-state in their new Cellforce Group, with these high-performance battery packs coming online in mass productions by 2024. China was Porsche largest global market, followed by the U.S., then Germany. With a focus on an IPO for Porsche AG going independent, they have committed long-term to a joint EV development R&D with Volkswagen that will benefit from the joint synergies in the future. So how does Porsche expect to reach 80% electric-vehicle sales by 2030? Electrification of all models and the stopping of ICE production as the electric models come online by a staggard year or so. Porsche has the electric version of the Macan and Cayenne coming out and the next autos are their 911 and 718 to be pure electric. Porsche believes the public want to go electric sooner rather than later and with the following sales figures believes it can achieve this. 180142_en_3000000.mp4 Quote: Sales in 2021 were €33.1 billion, €4.4 billion more than in the previous year, representing growth of 15 percent (previous year's sales: €28.7 billion). Operating profit was €5.3 billion, exceeding the previous year's figure by €1.1 billion (plus 27 percent). Porsche thus generated an operating return on sales of 16.0 percent (previous year: 14.6 percent). The last Porsche to go Electric will be the 918 series. Porsche's ambition for 2030: More than 80 percent all-electric new vehicles - Porsche Newsroom Cellforce to set up production in proximity to Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen - Porsche Newsroom Porsche delivers more than 300,000 vehicles - Porsche Newsroom Prototypes of the all-electric Macan: both digital and real - Porsche Newsroom View full article

As far as average miles driven, many sources but seems to roll between 14,200 to 14,400 now. Average Miles Driven Per Year: Why It Is Important - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com) How Much Is The Average Car Payment In America? + 21 Stats! (simplyinsurance.com) Average miles driven per year by state - CarInsurance.com Average Miles Driven per Year: The Info You Need to Know » (way.com)

Let's take a REAL BUSINESS LOOK at Tesla, putting accounting into effect, Tesla is a money questionable business putting off paying debt into the future. tsla-20210630-gen.pdf (tesla.com) Here is the End Report of Tesla 2021, December 31st. If they had to pay all the debt incurred and liabilities, they would not be where you think they are today. Being a darling, they are able to play the shell game well. The big benefit is that it finally forced the Legacy OEMs to finally put up or shut up and many are stepping up to compete. Be interesting to see where this is in 2025.

Awesome to hear, way to go Robert, well deserved! In regard to Vaccination and Covid, the BA-2 is now the dominate strain here in the U.S. and while for Vaccinated people it will be like a bad 2-3 day flu, unvaccinated, it really attacks the lungs suffocating you. Sadly, I expect a 4th wave of infections and masking to start the summer off. While we will not see the lock downs of past, we are far from over with this virus. The war in Ukraine is really kicking up this bug and clearly France, Spain, UK, Norway and Sweden are seeing high double digit infections again with hospitalization among the unvaccinated. Just like the Influenza of 1918 and not really settling down till 1925, I think current vaccinations will help us get to a more normal state faster being in 2023 with 2025 being truly back to normal. Still a bit weird being in stores with so many unmasked, but I wear my mask as we are not done yet with this virus.

Wonder how many V8 Hellcats Pacifica vans they will sell? To be shown at SEMA 2022 this fall. https://www.instagram.com/p/CQBr_Q0HCMp/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

This is no difference than current ICE solutions. Right off the GM Performance web site, connect and cruise that does include pretty much everything except labor and the random parts to finish put this in the same price range today. Unless you do it all yourself, which MOST PEOPLE CANNOT DO, the cost is on par between ICE and EV systems and the future is looking bright for cheaper EV systems as battery cost, the biggest cost become cheaper. Solid-State Battery packs will really change the game as they become mainstream replacing existing Lithium-Ion.

We have yet to see what the actual price is on the GM e-crate solutions and battery packs. Ford has for sale their Mach-e motor, ELUMINATOR MACH E ELECTRIC MOTOR| Part Details for M-9000-MACHE | Ford Performance Parts $4,095 each, do AWD is just $8,190.00 Ford Performance Parts is proud to offer the Eluminator!!! This electric motor is from the 2021 Mustang Mach E GT. Peak power: 210kW (281hp) Peak torque: 430Nm (317 lb.-ft.) Max speed: 13,800rpm Gear ratio: 9.05:1 Weight: 93kg / 205 lbs Includes: HV motor to traction inverter harness LV harness/connector Vent tube assembly. Does NOT include: Traction inverter Control system Battery Part Type Engine: Complete Engines Warranty Availability Not Available Packaged Dimensions 22" x 22" x 32 Packaged Weight 220 lb(s) Yes there are still other components, but no different than an ICE build in restoring an old auto.

Very happy to see this. FDA expected to OK additional Covid-19 booster shots for adults 50 and over this week - CNN

I see no reason you could not electrify an Aurora. Even if GM does not come out with an e-crate that fits, there are other options as you mentioned, Tesla which lately has been going into allot of FWD auto's making them AWD per EV West web site. So I have to think that yes, you could have the Aurora electrified to meet your needs.

GM has stated that they will have e-crate solutions to support converting all ICE autos be it FWD, RWD and AWD to electric. Currently GM has setup an ASE electrification conversion program for auto repair shops to get certified and do conversions with GM e-Crate Solutions and warranty. GMs Electric Vehicle Future | Performance (chevrolet.com) I had signed up requesting information but was weeded out as I am not a current functional auto shop. As such, finding out what all is entailed in getting the certifications, access to wholesale pricing on e-Crate connect and drive solutions for GM auto conversions. I honestly would love to have the Hummer Tri-Motor setup on my 1994 Suburban.

Sad that GM talks about e-crate motor and packages for conversion but has not delivered yet. Would be nice to convert some full-size old autos to have the 3 motor 1,000 hp system that is in the hummer.

ID.Buzz

As @balthazar stated and I agree with we will not see long haul truckers replace their Semi's with BE in the next 25 years in large numbers as I expect it will still be very expensive. Yet with inner city and Suburbs starting to mandate BE use by 2030, it makes sense that this will be the sweet spot for BE Semi's over the next 3 decades. A complete replacement of all trucks in all categories as well as private owned auto's will happen after our lifetime IMHO.

We'll stated, Both Ford and GM have stated to embrace all segments, and with so many EVs supposedly coming to market in 2025, one would have to assume the mid-size SUV segment will have plenty of options.

Yes very true as we have many independent long haul truckers. I honestly do not see a full conversion in our life time. The BE Semi will be good for the short haul, inner city and suburban delivery thing.

Very true, that with everyone moving to electric Semi's eventually everyone will be there. Paccar owner of Kenworth and Peterbuilt has had many electric mules testing around Seattle as their HQ is in Bellevue and the custom-built plant is in Redmond where they also build CNG Semi Trucks and will initially build electric too. Will be interesting to see how these do as I see allot of positive for having them do the inner-city delivery work and suburban deliveries. I think for Musk as Nikola was started by one of Tesla original folks who started to work on the Tesla Semi and I think the Ego could be bruised if Nikola truly can deliver 500 this year and ramp up next year while Tesla is just try to start in Summer of 2023. Gonna be an interesting Marathon for sure.

Another BLACK eye to Tesla, while I tried to get into the press release section of Nikola, I am awaiting approval, we will have to go with the story from Inside EV. Seems Tesla is slipping farther and farther behind as Tesla Semi Trucks are currently scheduled for production to start summer 2023 in Texas. Nikola Tre BEV Series Production Began March 21, Beating Tesla Semi (insideevs.com) Even after the deception by the ex-CEO and Founder about pickup trucks and other toys as he attempted to mimic Musk, the new CEO was able to turn the ship around and actually get these trucks into production. Nikola says 500 will be built this year and delivered to customers here in the US due to parts shortages. June 2023, production will begin at their Germany site for building trucks for Europe.

Thank you as you have brought a sane alternative questioning to a solid discussion that I think we all agree has been good for all here. I totally agree with you that all those folks in DC are messed up in one way or another. Too much BS about power and themselves than the job they were voted in for taking care of the citizens. Yes to always monitoring all sources of facts, review and consider how the data is presented with a good dose of does this make common sense? Yes everyone, I realize that commonsense is not always common with folks. That is where we as a majority can hopefully help others to understand the facts better. I do worry about the rest of this year as I think what we see in Europe will foreshadow what will happen here and I do expect infections to increase and the death count to go higher. I do believe that by 2025 we will have a solid grasp on this virus and very solid facts as you well pointed out about the rush to find a way to combat this virus and the moving data daily, weekly, monthly that is normal in a fast changing situation. Yet, I still believe the design, testing and research has a solid base to follow compared to the hyperbole of social media and armchair doctors. As I am still amazed that there are folks that believe treatments for Horses to rid themselves of worms can cure covid. ? or bleach shot into the body and all the other crazy cures that have been debunked.

According to the latest story from the street web site, VW has increased their spend here in North America to 7.1 Billion over the next 5 years as they aim to have 55% of their auto sales EVs by 2030 here. VW CEO of America has also stated that ICE auto's will start phasing out of their production lineup starting 2030 and that EVs for 2022 are sold out already for current capacity. They are working to increase it faster now than they expected due to such high demand as shown by the larger than expected investment in North America. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/volkswagen-spends-7-1-bn-to-challenge-tesla-ford-and-gm-at-home

Energy transition is the ultimate challenge in electric vehicles (EVs) and technological advances are reducing costs while offering greater efficiency as demanded by consumers. Driving the market is the entire powertrain made up of power-dense batteries, electric motors and wide-bandgap semiconductor solutions. GaN or Gallium Nitride is a wide-bandgap material with outstanding intrinsic characteristics that can offer system level advantages with better performance. Lower weight, higher power density for increased range is what GaN can deliver due to operating with a higher efficiency at a higher frequency providing a reduction in passive components while increasing power density. The advantage of allowing larger breakdown voltages and greater thermal stability at higher temperatures along with greatly increasing the efficiency of power-conversion stages is what GaN offers as a replacement for silicon in high-efficiency voltage converts, power MOSFETS, Schottky Diodes, etc. this is what transphorm has to offer to the fast-charger market and the EV products looking for energy efficiency, smaller dimensions, lower weight and lower overall cost. Current MOSFETs and superjunction MOSFETs cover the industry in voltages up to 650 V, transphorm GaN runs up to 1,200 V with 99% efficiency that can help drive down recharging times and deliver onboard better power transition between the components and engines. Per transphorm press release, their GaN device offers the broadest range of power options from 45W to 10K+ kW and has been tested to voltages greater than 1,400 Volts. In working with the Illinois Institute of Technology, the transphorm team has demonstrated a major breakthrough for their GaN performance of a 1,200-volt device node with high efficiency 800-volt switching. transphorm has proven that their GaN is moving pwer electronics beyond the limitations of silicon in achieveing 99% efficiency with 40% more power density and 20% lower system costs. While one could easily say BIG DEAL, GaN will not only affect the Auto Industry but the whole electronic industry as it is used from cell phones to computers, to various household electronics, home solar grids and yes your auto delivering on higher energy efficiency. For those wanting to learn more about various applications that this new technology can be used in, check out the larger video library here: Videos - Transphorm (transphormusa.com) The SuperGaN technology has the following benefits: Increased Performance: Gen IV provides a flatter and higher efficiency curve with an improved Figure of Merit (RON*QOSS) of approximately 10 percent. Easier Designability: Gen IV offers increased simplicity of design-in by removing the need for a switching node snubber at high operation currents. Enhanced Inrush Current Capability (di/dt):Gen IV removes the switching current limits for the built-in freewheeling diode function in half bridges. Reduced Device Cost: Gen IV’s design innovations and patented technology simplify device assembly, too. The resulting cost adjustments continue to bring Transphorm’s GaN closer to Silicon transistor pricing. Proven Robustness/Reliability: Gen IV’s 35 mΩ FET offers the same gate robustness of +/- 20 Vmax and noise immunity of 4 V that is currently delivered by Transphorm’s Gen III devices. This allows GaN to offer improvements and greater efficiency in the following markets: Infrastructure and IT Power Supplies Consumer and Computing adapters, gaming power supplies Broad Industrial chargers and UPS Automotive electric vehicles, charging, etc. 5G mobile adapters and RF material More details on specific areas can be had here: GaN Technology - Transphorm (transphormusa.com) With transphorm recent break through competition is heating up as Texas Instrument has also announced a new family of GaN transistors aimed at the auto industry meant to decrease board space, increase power efficiency in auto electrical systems. These devices are special why? The GaN products can reduce the EV onboard chargers and DC to DC converts by as much as 50% compared to current existing silicon based solutions. The goal here is in saving board space and increasing energy efficiency, engineers will achieve extended battery range, increased system reliability and lower design costs. According to Texas Instrument, GaN integration can eliminate more than 10 components typically required for discrete solutions in existing EVs and other solutions. This is the biggest area of improvements GaN has to offer to the EV market, cost and driving range. Today's EVs have many individual components that drive up costs and yet by integration of these components into the powertrain you drive efficiency in reducing that cost down. This would cover bulky items such as inductors, transformers and over all PCB size into the powertrain reducing power losses and simplify thermal management. GaN technology can help extend driving range by operating at higher efficiency and conserving thermal energy requiring fewer cooling components and lower costs. Driving standards is the SAE International that has a full detailed site for those interested in this technology: Gallium Nitride future of EV chips (sae.org) An interesting point that the SAE points out at the link above: Traction inverter: While an EV’s propulsion system (traction inverter plus electric motor) is five times more energy efficient than IC engines, with lower maintenance costs and longer lifespan, the upfront cost has on average been 2.5 times higher. Technology innovation in materials, magnetics and electronics is creating new-generation motors that are more energy efficient (less power loss through heat), compact and lighter in weight. GaN power semiconductors are key to the evolution of traction inverters capable of delivering more than a 70% power increase compared to inverters using traditional IGBTs. One area that some that follow the EV world has seen has been Tesla getting farther and farther on a battery charge. This came as the SAE points out at the link above in a Tesla S with 75 kWh battery getting a 6 to 10% range increase by replacing the conventional Si IGBT traction inverter with GaN-based inverter. transphorm as does their competitors and the SAE all state that the EV market will expand with enhanced power-electronic performance via implementation of GaN transistors, creating system efficiencies and increased power densities required to achieve demanding vehicle size and range targets. End result is we should see a wide range of EVs covering subcompact to full size at all price points eventually as the industry changes from ICE to EV. https://www.transphormusa.com/en/news/1200v_gan_ispsd/ ISPSD 2022 | Vancouver, Canada TI Turns to GaN FETs to Cut Board Space and Boost Power Density in EVs - News (allaboutcircuits.com) View full article

Welcome back Chris, nice to have you posting again!

WOW, did not know that about him. That is very surprising indeed. Wonder if diet played a part or just a lucky roll of the genetic dice? ?

Yes, you are right, the ignorance of people not wanting to face the facts did take it political. We can, due to the good grace of @Drew Dowdell THANK YOU, discuss this, post links to the facts and with our own restrain and rereading of our post before we post it do our best to keep this focused on the deadly Virus at hand. Our biggest challenge we will have, is being patient enough to continue to share the data, the educated best guess as science is only that till proven otherwise in helping those that choose to believe social media disinformation over science facts. I always find it interesting that people will tend to believe a mishmash of social media BS over a stated testing methodology of science. How someone with no facts, but a loud voice can get away with having people believe their BS over a science-based approach. Hate to say it, but education, which is the great equalizer IMHO, is also where we tend to have this division on society. We have two camps, those that are educated and use it to abuse society and those that see it as a responsibility to help society. This Pandemic has proven this out IMHO. Here is to everyone staying safe and getting vaccinated.

Interesting to see how fat we have become. Four-Decade Study: Americans Taller, Fatter | Live Science Interesting report that follows the last century. PDF (usda.gov) Interesting tool at this link, you put in your data and it tells you your size 100 years ago. I would have been 3.5 inches shorter. Height: How Tall Would You Be 100 Years Ago? | Time Loving how some sites give far better examples than our own government of the data to make it easy to understand by all. I realized this when I was going through the PDF from the gov site above and yet here is a simple chart of the same data. Average Height for Males and Females in 1912 and 2012 – A Hundred Years Ago Great study done on price and wages going back to the 1600's. Introduction - Prices and Wages by Decade - Library Guides at University of Missouri Libraries Love the attention to detail.