smk4565

1. Cadillac needs more V-series crossovers, something like 70% of the market is truck/crossover, so have to do V-series SUVs because sedans and coupes are dying. I still like cars, but that isn't where the market is. EV switch may make that easier since they won't be saddled with GM corporate FWD platforms that can't handle power. 2. Got to get the Formula 1 deal done with Andretti. Come 2026, Porsche and Audi will be in F1 (which is gaining in popularity) and Mercedes, Aston Martin, Ferrari, McLaren and Alpine/Renault are already there. So if Cadillac wants to be prime time, have to go race those guys. BMW should come back to F1 too.

Looks good, kind of Escalade like with the vertical lights front and rear. Almost makes the Telluride look a bit dated, so that might cool Telluride demand a bit. I bet they want like $75,000 for these. Cool vehicle, probably is roomy with the long wheelbase, the swivel 180 degree seats are pointless since there isn't enough floor space for 4 people to have legs and feet when facing each other, a 90 degree swivel would aid entry/exit especially for handicapped people.

Mercedes is at Level 3 now, and apparently the 40 mph limit on Drive Pilot is a regulatory limit, the system actually works to 70 mph, but much like laser headlights, they don't have regulatory approval to use it. Tesla claims to be "full self drive" but it is Level 2 and is is over $10,000, the Mercedes Level 3 system is like $7,000 and the Level 2 is like $2,000. But they say they can build the Mexico factory in less than a year, be operational late 2024. 5 years ago Tesla was selling ike 100,000 cars a year, this year they will be over 2 million. They are growing like gangbusters in a shrinking overall market. So if they do deliver on the low priced car, they will just keep growing while companies like Honda, Nissan, Stellantis take 20-30% annual drops. Only takes a few years of that before the legacy OEMS have way too much overhead and capacity and start bleeding money. I think the EV9 looks cool, I appreciate they put some real buttons in it and not just all screens. Probably will cost a ton for a Kia though.

It is possible though with the new factory in Mexico, lower labor rate and new way of assembling the car. Even if they don’t deliver on 50% cost reduction, and it is 33% reduction, a Model 3 is about $32k to build so the next Gen car would still be about $22k to build. They could still sell under $30k before tax credits.

Correct that ICE cars are far more likely to catch fire than a battery car. It is like 100 or 1000 times more likely, I forget which, but it isn't even close. And it is people with political agendas, or oil companies trying to hold on to their business. Wyoming can ban EV's in 2035 if they want, but then there will be no new car sales in Wyoming. China is the largest car market, 22% of their sales were EV last year, by 2035 that might be 100%. California alone is a top 10 car market in the world and they were at 19% EV last year. The big markets are moving EV, that is what manufacturers will make. I am not a Tesla fan boy, I don't want to buy one, but if they really do deliver on the $25,000 car, or even $30k with some options (and they say it will have "full self drive") put on the tax credit and is a $22,500 car with options. All the ICE small cars and crossovers are dead at that point. And the German luxury brands and Cadillac won't even have an ICE car in 10 years to sell. So what is left for ICE?

In 2022, Tesla sales were up 44%, Mercedes up 6%, GM up 3%. All other car companies were negative, some like Nissan and Honda down over 30%. Tesla since lowered prices and got a $7500 tax credit on their volume sellers. So we know they are going up again, and have Cybertruck at the end of the year to carry them in 2024. Most of these other companies are clueless and way behind on the EV front when it comes to manufacturing at scale and cost. I think the EV switch comes like a tidal wave in the next few years and the ones that don't have both good product and ability to produce at scale are going to be screwed. Hyundai/Kia can't ramp up scale fast enough and they don't have the tax credit since they aren't built in the US, at least not yet. But by the time they get a US plant going, Tesla will have the next-gen car at $25,000 or whatever it costs and it is game over for them.

That highlights an issue with EV's in general. EV's are expensive because people want a 100 kWh battery for the emergency 300 mile trip that they can't stop to charge for. Which isn't a good way to buy a car. That 87% of buyers that just run errands probably drive under 40 miles per day, so why pay for a 300 mile battery that adds $10-15,000 in cost to the vehicle? It would be like the F150 selling 100 gallon fuel tank and raising the price $10,000, no one would buy that.

Off roady SUVs and trucks seem to sell quite well, so this may work out.

The squared off SUV look is in (thanks to the Wrangler and G-wagen), you see Bronco, Bronco Sport, Defender, etc. The new Santa Fe is supposedly all boxy too. So I think this will do pretty well, assuming they can build them in the USA and get the tax credit, otherwise they might be a bit priced out if the competition gets it. Rivian's products are too expensive and they are already seeing a slow down in demand and they have been on sale one year. Same with Lucid. There is limited market for $100k product, especially at a time with high inflation and slumping stock market which concerns the type of people that buy $100k vehicles. Auto manufacturers need volume and scale to be profitable, Rivian and Lucid are just burning cash, I don't see how they make it.

By 20230, Tesla will be outselling Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi. I don't find the Ariya very impressive, not a good looking car and rather expensive for what it is.

It’s about step in height. Old people have a hard time getting in and out of sedans so they like these crossovers with a seat height that is same to their hips. And I guess there must still be some old people around that want a Buick. This brand is almost pointless now in North America otherwise.

Pretty generic with no power, if you want a Korean SUV just get a Hyundai or Kia which make pretty good ones.

Agree with all about the Highlander and the VW 2.0T. But VW could have got more power from that engine or done a hybrid or mild hybrid or something. Obviously they must see how well the Highlander and Pilot sell and there wasn’t a 3 row Grand Cherokee until last year, there is a Grand Highlander coming too. Mazda CX-90 is another. Loads of choices in this segment.

The Highlander is 4 cylinder only and the best seller in the segment. It looks like all the other interiors. Fake wood, touch screen on top of the dash, bland exterior, kind of wimpy engine. Better off with a Palisade, Telluride, Highlander or Pilot.

Yawn.

Looks better than the Highlander at least.

All 4 Mercedes EVs each outsell the Lyric right now. I don’t like the EQS or EQE, I think the ICE cars look better and I’d buy the ICE version but at least they give the customer a choice, both are available at dealerships. And they do sell them , this is how car sales are supposed to work, dealers get cars, then they sell them. Then they get more cars in and sell those. This idea of dealers with no inventory and place an order online and get it in a 6 months or a year is not sustainable for a company, especially legacy OEMs who are built on volume. There are only 3 Mercedes dealers in the Pittsburgh area and Bobby Rahal owns 2 of them. Wexford has 15 EV’s and Pittsburgh has 7 but they have half the total inventory there since it is in the city.

The Crown still looks weird to me, not sure who that appeals to because it isn’t classy or elegant like a Century, it is just weird shape with different color panels. Sadly there is probably a market for a Grand Highlander even though they already have a Highlander, Sienna and Sequoia as 3-row vehicles because you can never have enough SUVs.

Cadillac is sold out for 2024 because they have no capacity. Not because demand is so high. They are selling less than 1 Lyric per day, of course there is a 2 year back log. GM is losing plenty of potential customers because the car isn't available. Businesses don't make money on reservations and orders, they make it on selling cars. Rahal Mercedes has 15 EV's on lot Fletcher Jones Mercedes which is the largest in the nation has 15 on lot They don't need to talk about orders and how many they might sell in 2024, this product is available today to buy. And there aren't many Bolts on the lot, I bet those Chevy dealers average 25 Equinoxes and 50 Silverados in inventory and yet there is 1 Bolt. A Chevy dealer should have like 10-15 Bolts easily and really that's a car that should be selling at Hyundai Elantra levels at least, maybe not Civic/Corolla level due to name recognition and reputation but still an entry level car at a volume brand like Chevy should be doing 150,000 easily. They sold more Cruzes than that and that car was junk.

GM is forecasting to build 170,000 EV's in 2023 and 285,000 in 2024. Ford says by end of 2023 they will be at a 600,000 per year run rate, so we can assume 2024 they sell that many. Tesla is forecasting 1.8 million EV's this year, obviously will be well over 2 million in 2024. They are still way far ahead.

21,000 Lyrics for a year sounds reasonable for Cadillac volume, Lexus sells like 125,000 RX's a year and that has been the best selling luxury SUV for a while (although the Model Y might beat that now). So I think 250,000 is not realistic considering that would be like 4 times the volume of an X5 or GLE, double the RX, etc. And the luxury SUV market is only so big, especially with rising interest rates and maybe a slowing economy. But let's say Cadillac really did have 250,000 people that want a Lyric, if they can only build 25,000 a year, then 225,000 people are going to another brand to buy their car. That is my issue with GM's EV's. I think the Bolt is the best new car deal in America if you can get federal and state tax breaks and get one for under $20k, how can you beat a new car with warranty for under $20k that also is cheaper on energy/fuel and maintenance than an a ICE car. On dollars, that is the best car deal there is. And The other GM EV's seem to have good value too. The problem is they aren't on dealer lots. I checked the inventory of Audi, BMW and Mercedes dealers near me, all of them have EV's on the lot. You can go to the dealer today and drive home in an EV, none of this order and wait 6 months crap. The only way anyone stops Tesla's crazy momentum is to have these EV's on lots ready to go. And on the production side you have to match their cost, but from the consumer side, the cars have to be available.

The EQB bottom dweller costs more than every Cadillac except the Lyric and Escalade. 122 Lyrics is for all of 2022. They sold 86 in Q4, less than 1 per calendar day. Inside EV's Also a base, no option A220 is $35,000 with destination. There are a whole lot of Toyota, Ford, Chevy vehicles under $35,000. And that is a 2022 A-class price, I don't even think they are doing a 2023 in the US market, I read they were killing it off, but it still shows on their website. The cheapest Mercedes at the dealer near me is $44,000 for a GLA, pretty sure that isn't the case at a Ford or Chevy dealer. I think 4339 EQS sales makes it the #2 selling full size luxury sedan in the USA, that's actually a big number when you compare it to A8 or 7-series.

First off the Bolt is like 1/3rd or 1/4th the cost of a Mercedes EV, not even in the same market. Also GM's volume in the USA is like 8 times more than Mercedes, they should be selling 8 times as many EV's. A better comparison would be Cadillac vs Mercedes, then you are talking 122 to 5,656. Mercedes is ramping up pretty quickly, a year ago the EQS just went on sale, now they have 4 EV models, all of which are in dealer inventory and the EQE SUV is coming this spring. 5 EV's is a pretty big line up compared to 1 at Jaguar, 1 at Lexus, 1 at Cadillac, 0 at Lincoln, Infiniti, Genesis, Acura.

GM needs to spend more time building EVs and less money on advertising them. They spend millions of dollars on EV ads every month and they sold like 200 combined Lyriq and Hummers last quarter. I think people see these EV ads and just go buy a Tesla.

GM needs battery capacity. They sold 72 Cadillac Lyrics last quarter. Don't they want Cadillac to be all EV in like 3 years? Can't do that selling less than 1 car a day. Instead of spending $850 million on next gen small block V8s, they should spend that $850 million on battery production. They need more batteries.