smk4565

That Mercedes is $7500 over priced too. I wonder if the $7500 lease deal is because they can get the federal EV credit on EV's they make in Alabama . But the EQE is easily $5-10k overpriced, depending on the trim level. Especially compared to the 2024 E-class that looks better, and has a better interior and is cheaper.

$5,000 cash back now on Ioniq 6, since they can't sell these things. Hyundai/Kia have had a great 10 year run and it could all crash and burn since they want to charge above Cadillac prices for Hyundais and no one is buying. I don't care if it is an an EV, the Ioniq 6 costs more than a Cadillac CT5 and that isn't a price range Hyundai buyers shop in.

Japanese brands are getting hammered in China. That is also a trend that won't stop as China might be all EV by 2030 and there are 100 car makers making TVs in China right now. So if Toyota and the others lose volume in China, they have to look to the US or Europe and Tesla and BYD are on the attack in Europe. If I were Toyota management, I wouldn't be worried about a 900 mile EV, I would be worried about how do I get the BZ4X price down to $30,000.

This sounds like a lot of blue sky concept, they don't any have any of this stuff built, or even a prototype, let alone explained how they would scale this out. I can believe 3.5 million BEV's in 2030, but that could also be 50-60% of Toyota's total sales volume and Toyota would thus be a smaller company than they are now. They might be selling 7 million cars a year in 2030 vs the 10 million a year they used to sell. The 900 mile battery also shows how clueless they are. Who needs a 900 mile battery? And they don't tell us what vehicle that would even go in. Sure put a 300 kWh batter that costs $45,000 into a car and your et 900 miles, but how is that sellable to consumers when the 900 mile EV Corolla is a $95,000 car? What they should be focusing on is a solid state battery 300 mile range Camry that is $25,000. They talk about 40% battery cost reduction and 20% range increase in a bZ4x by 2027, but that would just make the bZ4X comparable to that is on the market today. The bz4x is more expensive than a Tesla Model Y, with less range and is slower. Toyota has deep pockets, but they better empty them out if they don't want to shrink to 2/3 or half their size in 10 years.

They will drive 2.8 miles if Tesla is at 25 cents per kWh and the rest of them are at 50 cents. This is the same issue with the cars themselves. If Tesla wins on price, which they are right now, they are going to clobber everyone. The Tesla charger network will likely be superior and cheaper than whatever the other guys come up with. And sure people will use other charge networks but Tesla could have 50% and all the other guys could have 50%. Kind of like cell phone carriers, there are a lot out there but Verizon and AT&T have 65% of the market.

Correct me if I am wrong but it looks like they are going to be re-selling electricity and actually generating it. Tesla is using solar to generate electricity and will install mega pack batteries in the ground to store it so they aren’t going to be paying for electricity. They can undercut Shell or anyone else on price per kWh. we need more charge network but I feel like most gas stations are poorly run businesses that are only in business because people have to fuel their cars. Once they can fuel at home or from Tesla, people won’t go to Shell or Exxon stations.

NACS will become the standard in North America for sure. It might become the standard elsewhere in time, look how much sleeker and simpler the Tesla charger looks compared to CCS. Tesla might not only have 25% of US car sales in 10 years, they might have 50% of the EV charge network too.

A Camaro or Mustang start around $30,000 and the Mustang has had shrinking sales and the Camaro is being killed off since sales are drying up. A Hyundai Ionic 6 AWD is $49,000. A coupe with a lower value body will cost more, easily over $50k for a 320 hp coupe, thus about $20k more than a 320 hp Mustang, $12,500 more than a Mustang if they can build it in the USA with an American sourced battery which is a big IF. Lets look at Hyundai EV sales this year in Q1: The Ioniq 5 is basically down the same amount of Ioniq 6 sales, combined they are looking at about 36k units at this pace, lets say they get an end of the year boost and gets them to 40k units. For a small crossover and mid-size sedan, 2 of the most popular body styles in the market. Coupes sell at maybe 5% the volume small crossover sells, the Hyundai Pony Coupe would be about a 2-3,000 unit per year car in the USA, and that would probably be it's best market. Somewhat related note, Mustang Mach-E ales were down over 40% in May. These guys can't match Tesla, Hyundai and Ford are losing money on these cars and they are about $10k over priced of where they should be to get people to actually buy them. The losses would be staggering if they priced them where they need to be to get any volume.

100% they need to make a Bolt or Trailblazer EV sub $30,000 small crossover hatch type vehicle. And they have to build it in North America to get that tax credit so in effect it becomes a sub $22,500 car. And a 50-60 kWh battery is fine, that is enough rage for daily driving or a 3 hour trip. The key is having an EV for the masses that you can sell 1 million of, especially when you consider China, Europe or other markets that need cheaper or smaller cars than the USA. The Malibu name plate is kind of garbage right now, they need an EV sedan that is a Tesla Model 3 fighter, might was to resurrect another name for that, but again, if they can come out with a $37,000 sedan get the tax credit down to $29,500 then it is game on. Need scale and cost, that is how to win.

The problem is a 2 door car is low volume, thus it will be high priced to make up for being low volume, then less people will buy it. I doubt they sell these for $40,000, which is still a decent amount for a Hyundai coupe, but where it would need to be priced to get sales.

You are comparing a total upstart to a company that has been around over 100 years. It should not take GM 10 years to scale production. Perhaps they don’t want to sell more EVs because they lose money on them. The Detroit brand gave up on sedans because they couldn’t make money on them. They will give up on the Trax/Equinox, Escape, Compass etc when the small Tesla Crossover comes and makes them all irrelevant. Maybe the Ford and GM can survive just selling pickups and full size SUVs but they might be half their current size in 10 years.

Which would be a problem with GM product planning in the past 20 years. The filled the Saturn and Buick lineups with Opels and Chinese built crossovers, just because they were making them someone else, and needed product for American showrooms, even if they weren't the right product for the brand. Did the same thing with the Holden Pontiacs. Just keep rebadging mediocre product rather than building class leading product. I start to wonder if GM will be here in 10 years. I thought their move into EV's would be faster and they could at least somewhat compete with Tesla and beat out the Japanese makes. Now Mary says they won't make profit on EV's until 2030. Tesla will be so far ahead by then, it will be too late.

I assumed this was China only. China is toughing up emissions standards this year, and that is a cheap EV battleground there. This could be a short lived product as an ICE car might be a real hard sell in China in 5 years. And Cadillac needs to get their American line to EV in a hurry, because the ICE line is dying on the vine, time to scrap CT4, CT5, XT4, XT5, XT6 and start all over for their 4th or 5th brand overhaul in the past 25 years.

All GM vehicles (except pick ups) are uniside vehicles. A-pillar to D-pillar is one panel. Very few other cars are done like that, most are 2 or 3 piece.

"Selling out" at what production level? I doubt it is even one of VW's top 5 sellers.

I think this would sell quite well unless they price it at $60,000+ and then not enough people will be able to justify that much on a van.

Fun fact Ford discontinued beds for 2015-2021 F150s so if you need a bed replacement you have to buy a used one which is probably $10k because the salvage vendors know you can’t buy a new one. Ford does still sell the side panels. Cybertruck will have accessories, I think there is already a camper add on for it. The Silverado EV is basically unibody too, it isn’t body on frame it is more unibody on battery pack.

The Silverado EV is said to weigh over 8,000 lbs. And I bet the Silverado is heavier than the Cybertruck because after seeing Munro and Associates tear apart the Hummer battery, that Ultium pack is not weight efficient at all. Tesla’s battery is more space and weight efficient than Ultium.

The Cybertruck has higher payload and towing than any gas or EV truck in the 1500 class. Also has a bigger bed than any EV truck. Sounds more capable than the rivals. I think Elon’s 250-500k units per year is accurate, especially globally. The Toyota Hilux is the #4 best selling vehicle in the world this year, outselling the F150. Lot of truck buyers out there.

It could be that Cybertruck buyers never had a pickup or wouldn't otherwise have bought a pickup, butI would guess a lot of the sales would come from other pickup buyers, whether it be full size trucks or even Tacoma and Ridgeline. We don't know the price of the Cybertruck yet either, but it will have that $7500 credit, so that could help it compete, plus no gas compared to the fuel cost of a 20 mpg pickup. And we don't quite know how FSD might be monetized, Tesla might be able to sell cars at zero margin if their income comes from FSD, software sales, electricity sales, etc. Lots of unknowns, but will be interesting how it plays out.

It doesn’t have to outsell them but even if they take 100k sales each from Ford, GM and Ram that will hurt their bottom lines. Because those companies live off pick up truck profits, Tesla doesn’t have to.

I wonder if the shift to EV will also shift what vehicles are most profitable to automakers. Right now pickups are super profitable, but if these big trucks and SUVs need a 200 kWh battery that costs $30,000 compared to a smaller crossover/sedan with a 67 kWh battery that is $10,000, that is a huge gap to overcome from a profit standpoint. Perhaps car makers and consumers will shift back to smaller vehicles to get range for less money. And it might be that an Equinox EV could have better profit margins than a Silverado EV.

I have wondered that about how these giga cast vehicles will be repaired. Rarely do shops replace quarter panels, and if an inner quarter panel is damaged on a car it is probably totaled anyway. The rear body panel would be interesting because when cars are rear ended semi-hard, it is pretty common to need a rear body panel and perhaps a trunk floor since that metal folds pretty easily. If the giga-cast cars can't get a floor or rear body put in and you have to replace the back half of the car then it's totaled. But EV's have pretty strong salvage value and would be totaled easier than an ICE car anyway. I'll tell you what is going to total a lot of car in the future is LED headlights and radar cruise sensors unless that costs comes way down. I wrote an estimate on a 2023 Hyundai Tucson about a month ago, it needed the headlights, DRL lights, bumper, grille, rad support, AC condenser, radiator and the radar sensor. Was over $12,000 to fix. When that car is 4 years old, if it hits a deer and breaks all 4 lights, bumper, grill and the radar, it is totaled for not even being that damaged. Had a Hyundai Elantra yesterday that hit a deer, this is $9k in damage using recycled and aftermarket parts, it was over $12,000 if using OEM parts, in which case it would have been totaled. Toyotas, Hondas and Subarus are cheap to fix, but all this other stuff they are making to be disposable anyway, especially if used car values drop back off and the parts prices stay sky high.

The updated Model 3 is coming soon, Model Y update probably next year. They look pretty ready to go with this. And part of the update is improving efficiency in manufacturing. Tesla is also going to 48 volt electric system which will save weight and cost in wiring harnesses. This car may actually get cheaper with more content added in. The next gen Model 2 or whatever it will be called, is only going to use 40% the factory space that a Model 3/Y takes to build, auto factory assembly lines are about 30% inefficient, the paint process is inefficient, etc. Since Tesla will gigacast and build the car in modules, rather than traditional assembly line, it sucks a ton of cost out, thus you get a sub $30,000 Tesla. And it goes back to the point I have been making. What will matter in the EV wars is cost and scale. No one else has Tesla's scale or vertical integration, and no one else has the cost controls. Others might get there, but it is a race to get there. The first 5 or 6 that get there will survive, the rest go bankrupt.

If the Cybertruck has more range, more acceleration, FSD, better handling, tighter turning radius, large bed, and all the stuff they promise, and deliver it at a price that is equal or less the competition then yes people will buy it. The Model Y outsells the Rav4 now, so much for Toyota loyalty, people fled for the better product. And that is a case when the Tesla costs a lot more money, imagine if it was dollar for dollar even. The full size truck market in the USA is about 2 million units, mid-size is probably another million. I read the global pickup market was about 4.8 million last year. Even if 10% of global truck market goes to Cybertruck then they hit 500,000. Now I don't know how many countries they will sell it in, but even if they just sell it in the USA and get 20% of the truck market, they can hit 500k units. Probably no one thought the #1 selling vehicle in Europe would be an American car, because people said Europeans will never buy a car form the USA. But Tesla proved that wrong.