smk4565

Cater to sub $50k, how so? Here is their sales chart, the S-class is outselling A-class and CLA combined this year. The GLS is outselling the GLB. Their 2 best sellers are GLC and GLE. And a GLC300 4Matic starts at $46k before destination, so with 1 option package those are basically all $50k or more.

I don’t know how “accessible” the S-class is when the base model is over $110,000 and the Maybach is $200,000+. I would guess that 95% of Americans can’t afford a $140,000 car. Which sort of goes to my original point, Mercedes has a customer base that will spend $140k on a sedan or $200k on a G-wagon. So they can make these expensive EV’s and not have a problem. Their challenge will be can they make an A class level EV that isn’t E-class pricing. I brought up the Hyundai/Kia because their small crossover EV’s are like $50k and the Sportage and Tucson are like $30k. If Hyundai kills off their ICE cars that’s a big leap for their customer base to take.

I said full size luxury car, of which the EQS is the #2 seller. It does tremendous volume for the segment it is in. And I am comparing ICE and EV because a sale is a sale. If Toyota sells 10 million cars a year and Rivian sells 50,000, I don’t want to hear about how Rivian is beating Toyota because they sold more EV’s this year. The EQE is about 1-2 inches shorter than a Model S, the EQS is like 10 inches longer. The EQE is Mercedes’ Model S competitor, the EQC sedan will be the Model 3 competitor when it gets here.

Q3 Mercedes sales are out for YTD: S-class 11,376 EQS sedan 5,749 BMW 7-Series 3,905 Lexus LS 1,989 Audi A8 1,025 Genesis G90 786 I’d say the EQS is doing just fine, it’s beating Lexus, Genesis and Audi combined.

Full size luxury car I said. That would be the S-class, EQS, 7-series, A8, Lexus LS, Jaguar XJ (which I think is discontinued now), Genesis G90, maybe you could throw the Panamera in there, but that isn't really a full size car. The Taycan and Model S are not full size cars. Bentley Flying Spur and Rolls Royces obviously are full size too.

You are trying to compare a mass market company vs a luxury brand that does less volume. The EQS outsold the Genesis G90, the BMW 7-Series, Audi A8, Lexus LS in the first half the of the year, their Q3 numbers aren't released yet, as I just checked. The EQS is doing well if it is beating its gasoline counterparts. Also I am looking more 5 years out. In 5 years time if an Ioniq 5 is $10k more than an Equinox EV how does that work for Hyundai? The bulk of Hyundai's customers buy Elantras and Tucsons that are sub $30,000.

I doesn’t matter how good the Ioniq 5 is if they can’t produce them. Same goes for Rivian and Lucid, if you can’t build the cars you can’t make money. The EQS is the #2 selling large luxury car ICE or gas, only because Mercedes also makes the #1 selling large luxury sedan. The Ioniq 5 is not the #2 selling small crossover. Mercedes, Porsche, Audi and GM are marketing EVs to current prices in their brands. I think this group has it right and the others we’ll see where they are in 2030.

Chevrolet doesn't really sell a $100k SUV, but Hyundai can sell whatever they want. Anyone can sell $100k cars but there isn't any volume there, customers can barely afford cars now. The Ioniq 5 doesn't have volume, making higher priced Hyundais and Kias isn't a path to growth. Mercedes is doing just fine, through Q2 the EQS was the #2 selling large luxury car only behind the S-class the Q3 numbers aren't out yet. And they'll have EQE sedan and SUV in the next few months hitting dealers. Assuming they they price parity (or at least close) with the next gen batteries coming in the 2025 time frame they'll basically be able to merge into all EV by 2030 for C-class and up at least. Because the current S-class runs through 2027 model year, the C-class through 2028 and next E-class 2024-2030. Sort of lines up perfectly to make each generation the last ICE and make the replacement generation EV. And they arrive at 2030 with the same lineup they have today at the same price points and market segments as today, just electric and not ICE. And Mercedes doesn't make trucks, they make luxury vehicles, they aren't trying to compete with Toyota or GM. And I would say that Tesla doesn't make luxury cars either. Hyundai/Kia are not doing this, they are adding EV's in segments they aren't in, not preparing to convert Tucson, Santa Fe and Palisade to electric, that might not be 15-20 years depending on how fast this EV switch happens, which personally I think once battery cost drops and supply goes up, I think flood gates open and the switch to EV goes fast.

But the Telluride is 2 size classes bigger than an EV6. When the EV9 or whatever their 3 row SUV is, what will that cost? $75,000? I have a hard time believing there is demand for $75,000 Hyundai and Kia SUVs. Now if they can slash the price of their EV's then different story. But that Ioniq 6 is their Sonata replacement, but it is going to cost $20,000 more than a Sonata. I don't see how they get someone trading in their Sonata to all of a sudden pay $20k more to guy a new car, and I don't see people that drive a BMW 5-Series saying, I think I'll spend 5-series money on a Hyundai. I get that Hyundai has been on a roll with good products the past 10 years. But I think they are getting the benefit of the doubt. If GM said their EV plan was an Equinox EV in the $40-60k range, an EV Malibu in the $50-70k range and an EV Traverse for $75-90k (all with no tax credits and limited availability) and they are going to kill off all their ICE cars, people would say Chevrolet is doomed.

A Genesis GV60 starts at $59,290 has 314 hp, 248 mile range while the GLB350 starts at $58,050, has 288 hp and 227 mile range, but is larger and offers a 3rd row and has a Mercedes interior, not a Hyundai Ioniq 5 interior with quilted leather seats. I don't think they are that off base with $60k for an EQB, although I wish it looked more like the GLB's front end and headlights since those look better, and it should have another 25-30 miles of range at that price.

The 2023 Telluride starts at $36k though, loaded up they can go over $50k. But the EV6 is $6k more than a Telluride and sized like a Sportage. YTD Kia has sold 17,000 EV6, 90,000 Sportage and 72,000 Telluride. Tesla has sold 163,000 Model Y. And the EV6 had a tax credit until last month, now that it's gone I could see sales of it dropping. I don't see Kia becoming majority EV by 2030 as they say they want to be, partly due to the slow take rate on the current EV, secondly the EV6 doesn't fit their line up. Do they make EV5, EV6, EV7 and kill off well known products like Sportage, Sorrento and Telluride? For as much as a roll as Hyundai Kia were on in the 2011-2021 time frame, I could see that progress stalling or falling back in the 2022-2032 decade.

None of what Hyundai and Kia are bringing to market matter if they aren't Hyundai and Kia prices and they don't do Hyundai and Kia volume. The Ioniq 5 has declining sales right now, they are getting outsold 10 to 1 by the Tesla Model Y. And what is an Ioniq 7 going to cost? $50-70k? Cadillac Lyriq money for a Hyundai of the same size? The Equinox is about the size of an Ioniq 5 and will be $10k cheaper plus get a tax credit. I don't see how Hyundai wins that battle.

This is sort of yawn styling, but if priced on par with a Blazer, it will outsell the Blazer.

You don't really need 800V, most chargers don't go that fast and if you are charing a home, you are talking like 10 kWh charge rates, so then it really doesn't matter. Going 400 vs 800 can save on cost and cooling needs, etc. The big problem with EV's (other than production constraints) is if you look at a generic ICE small crossover they go 0-60 in about 8 seconds, have 300-400 mile range, cost $30-35k. And car companies sell millions of these per year. Then when they get to EV's they think it needs 500 hp and a sub 4-second 0-60 time and costs $70,000. Ford would never in a million years put a 500 hp V8 in an Escape and charge $70,000 for it because they know no one would buy it. But when it comes time for an EV crossover, throw 500 hp in it and change $65,000. I think Mercedes and GM are the only 2 that have it figured out, mirror your ICE line with IV's because then you are marketing to your current customer base and your potential cross shops.

If they could get the EQB produced in the USA to get the tax credit, all of a sudden that looks like a pretty temping vehicle, because the GLB is a strong seller and is pretty well received, but you can get one for $10-15k less than n EQB, I didn't look to see how the options and equipment line up to compare the 2 exactly. But with a tax credit, to get the EQB under $50k, that's a pretty good deal, when you look at something like a Toyota BZ4X is near $50k in the all wheel drive XLE trim.

Fletcher Jones Mercedes in San Diego has the EQB in stock, 39 EV's on the lot or in transit out of there 500 cars in stock. Bobby Rahal Mercedes has 4 EQS SUV's in stock, so if you want one you can get it today, no waiting 6 months for your Tesla to show up. I think this is how traditional OEM's beat Tesla, the ability to buy it today (or custom order if you want). Although nothing Tesla makes has the luxury of a Mercedes, even the EQE blows away the Model S/X interior and you get a real steering wheel.

Tesla has sold 300,000 Model 3/Y so far on 2022 in the USA. EV6 and Ioniq5 combined for 36,000. I wouldn’t say Hyundai/Kia are doing well when getting outsold 9 to 1 and Hyundai just lost the tax credit and Tesla is about to get it back.

I agree that we haven’t seen true competition yet but buyers are spending $50k on small Hyundai and VW crossovers and I suspect they never will. Do either they need to get the iD4 and Ioniq 5 down under $35,000 like the Equinox EV or they are screwed. Mercedes EQB, EQS,EQS SUV are available at dealers now, EQE by the end of the year and EQE SUV early next year. That will be 5 EV’s on sale, they are moving as fast or faster than anyone else.

What I am wondering is if any of the mainstream brands can top Tesla, or if Tesla will eventually bring out some cheaper models and just put several legacy car companies out of business. So far in 2022 the Model Y and Model 3 each outsell any product from Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda or Subaru. The Model Y is outselling the Explorer and Wrangler and is on pace with the Equinox. And the Model Y is like a $60,000 car. We've seen how pitiful the sales volumes are on stuff like the iD4, the EV6 and Ionic 5 are pretty low and slowing in sales already, Nissan Ariya is a bust waiting to happen. So how do those companies survive when they are EV only? They are going to need cars like the Ionic 5 selling 200,000 units a year, and they are struggling to hit 25k units a year.

The ICE cars look better than the EV's. I think most car companies feel they need to make EV's look futuristic or different so early adopters buy them or they scream EV. But people like how the S-class looks, they like the GLE, just make the electric versions look like that. I think Ford did that well with the Lightning, the F150 formula works, no need to mess it up, they know buyers like the F150, you don't have to reinvent it.

I think the EQ look works better on the SUVs than it does the sedans. I sort of like the regular screen more than the hyper screen because you get wood trim on the dash and actual materials, just not a mega screen. I do like having buttons and things to touch and not having all the controls in a screen like Tesla does. Although the piano black in the center console of non-hyper screen cars is lame, piano black sucks in all cars, it looks bad and attracts fingerprints, they should have an option to replace that with wood trim like in the hyper screen car.

I mean 5 years is a long time to buy "up to 175,000 cars." Not sure if that is because Hertz only buys so many cars a year or GM can't produce that many that fast. But GM should be able to make million EV's a year soon and if they are going to be mostly EV by 2030, that is like 5 million a year.

5 years is a long time.

Tesla will produce 500k units in Q4, so that puts them at a 2 million per year rate. 2 years from now that could be 3 million per year. If they get caught up with their own demand and get the Cybertruck, Roadster and Semi done, maybe in 2025 they start looking at a cheaper model. The tax credit for American made EV’s is what might save the automakers that currently build here. Without that China would for sure bring cheaper EV’s and undercut everyone in price and I suspect they would sell if a Hyundai Ioniq 5 is $50k and the Chinese knockoff is $30k.

Tesla and the Chinese car companies already have battery production ramped up and growing. The question is how fast GM and Ford can get there. Then can GM keep the promise in the Equinox price, and does Tesla bring out a cheaper model to grow even more volume.