smk4565

I don't think Fisker will make it, but at least they are going at it with a $50,000 SUV rather than a $150,000 sedan like Lucid tried to do in a market that doesn't buy sedans. 

On 7/27/2023 at 9:22 PM, David said:

Stories like these are very wrong in what they are saying.

Why I Wouldn't Buy an Electric Car yet, Despite the Amazing Technology (businessinsider.com)

Mainly due to the fact that most folks will charge at home and if you look at cost over the average life of long term auto ownership, EVs become way cheaper than ICE.

This is one of the best writeups on why FUD is rampant on EV ownership.

Here's Why People Don't Buy Electric Cars (and Why They're Wrong) | U.S. News (usnews.com)

I agree with both articles, the EV myths are holding them back, but those are getting debunked.  And charge network is growing.  And model selection growing.  A year ago if you wanted an EV you basically got to pick from a small crossover or a $100,000 sedan.  But now there are pickups, vans, 3-row crossover like The EV9, still waiting on a coupe/convertible, but the selection of body styles is growing and prices are better better.

Given all that, I think the demand for EVs could easily triple by 2025 and by then the manufacturing capacity should be there, Tesla will have Mexico and India open around then, the legacy OEMs better figure it out by then.  

19 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I dunno. Most charging still happens at home. 30,000 chargers for this new network is still more than what Tesla has today and the Tesla folks do okay most of the time. Plus EA and ChargePoint are still out there too along with every GM dealership. 
 

I’m not saying 60k isn’t a selling point just that Tesla sells cars fine with 21,000.

But the #1 reason people don't buy an EV is charge network.  Tesla is obviously building more chargers, this 30,000 that hopefully they can build out in 4-5 years will help clear that charging hurdle.  

I still think in the 2025-26 time frame, EV sales skyrocket and ICE plunges, and anyone that bet on ICE and gas stations is in for a rude awakening.  

This is good news and I hope they can build this out in the next few years and not take 10 years to do it.  By the time they have 30,000 chargers, Tesla will probably have 30,000, then you have 60,000 chargers available for those brands that can use both.  And I imagine any brands that can't use both will have a hard time selling cars.

A good move, they need the Bolt and consumers need cheap EV’s.  If we are going all EV you can’t do that with $150,000 Lucid Air and Porsche Taycan.  Need to build $30,000 EVs.

11 hours ago, David said:

NO, NO, NO, Mercedes like GM and Ford has stated they will have multiple chargers at their dealerships. There is NOTHING in the press release about buying plots of land and building a stand alone charging station network.

Let me help you with the simple math. At your fictional 300 dealerships, that is 8 chargers per dealer. 

Now if we go by their actual website, Mercedes-Benz has 383 authorized dealerships located across the United States of America¹. Mercedes-Benz USA is headquartered in Montvale, NJ and has 11 office locations located throughout the US²

That means they will have 6.5 Chargers per dealership.

A dealership is a bad place for public charging.  Maybe better than a Walmart parking lot since a dealer has  a waiting room.  But a restaurant/gas station/store type place makes more sense.  Also a lot of dealers aren’t along highways where you need charging on a road trip.  
 

And the point of EV’s is going to the dealer less for maintenance, I don’t want to have to drive to the dealer to charge my car.  

23 hours ago, David said:

Nothing now by Benz and 2,500 at some point in the future is a joke compared to other networks not including the massive Tesla Supercharger network. 

If Benz truly cared about the experience, then why not commit to 10's of thousands of charging points?

No, Mercedes is building charging sites.  They only have 300 dealers that isn't enough.  Plus Mercedes doesn't own those dealers so they can't build on their property.  This sounds like Mercedes is going to buy 400 plots of land, install 2,500 chargers and then manage.  Which is a smart move, it helps adoption of EV's and lets them make money selling electricity.

1 hour ago, David said:

Evidence has already been supplied by me that NO CONSTRUCTION has started yet in Mexico, it is now at the earliest 2026. This on top of the fact that global economist are now looking to 2024 to be a recession year.

This is 'the end of the beginning' of the battle against inflation, economist says (msn.com)

Things are slowing down and with the new Tesla 3 supposed to be shown later this year, people will hold off on buying the current version to wait for the new version just as a recession hits. China is slowing down, Europe is the only place where between 2 to 3% growth is happening but is expected to level off. Tesla is not going to dodge the recession and still grow, they will have to slow down justl like everyone else.

Recession is bad news for the other guys with their dealers throwing mark ups on cars, not going to be a problem for Tesla who can keep lowering prices and the Mexico built model with the tax credit could be $22,500, which if money gets tight, people will flock to a cheap car that doesn't need gas or maintenance.  

2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

No... just no.  Put down the vape.

Tesla does not have the manufacturing capacity globally to produce 8 million vehicles.   Today, they can do about a million and a quarter per year, and Fremont is still using tents to build cars.

They were at a 1.92 million run rate in Q2 of this year.  If they don't pass 2 million in Q3, they will in Q4 for sure, as there is still expansion happening at Berlin and Austin.  Probably they get to 2.5 million next year with those factories.  

Mexico plant opens 2025 (or 2026 if they are late) and that has a 2 million capacity.

The France or Spain plant whoever wins the 2nd European factory would be 2026 or 2027, that is another 2 million.  There will be either a 2nd China factory or maybe India, and rumor is another American factory or Canada.  

Musk wants to build 10-12 more gigafactories, let's say they build just 5 that do 1.5 million units per year (and not the 2 million unit goal), that is 7.5 million units on top of the 2.5 million they can get out of what they have now, so 10 million units a year come 2030.

Tesla has goals of 20 million cars in 2030, I think that is nuts, maybe in 2040, but 10 million in 2030 is very doable, will probably only take 8 million to hit #1 as VW and Toyota are losing market share to Tesla and the Chinese.

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Put it another way, Toyota has more spare capacity than Tesla has total capacity.

Which should be terrifying to Toyota, because Auto factories running at anything less than say 75-80% capacity start to lose money.  And once Tesla takes 30% of Toyota's volume, and Toyota isn't selling 10 million cars like they did in 2019 or 8 million cars like they did in 2022, and drop down to say 5 million cars in 2030, Toyota probably has to close half their factories and shutter half their models, just to survive.  

21 hours ago, David said:

Nothing now by Benz and 2,500 at some point in the future is a joke compared to other networks not including the massive Tesla Supercharger network. 

If Benz truly cared about the experience, then why not commit to 10's of thousands of charging points?

How many auto makers have charge networks outside of Tesla?  And I am not talking about Electrify America or EVgo or anything like that, that any car and use.  Because I don't see Ford or VW branded charge stations that are owned and operated by the manufacturer.  

You are in the Tesla network or out of business in 10 years I think.  

And good that they are building their own charge stations too that anyone can use.

On 7/7/2023 at 11:25 AM, ccap41 said:

And replaced with the Equinox EV supposedly starting at 30k. 

 

There's still next to no chance there is a 25k Tesla. Have you not watched what they've done with pricing of everything they've ever sold? Their Model 3 that they said EVERYWHERE was only 35k, was only sold for 5 months before they got rid of that model. Yeah, they may make a few but it'll be in model year 2 and only for a couple months just to say they did it. Don't you understand that? Not anybody will be able to get a 25k Tesla, the same way I can't go buy a 35k Model 3. The cheapest Model 3 is 40k, before federal tax credit.

$35,000 in 2018 dollars is $42,000 today, so the Model 3 price has gone up less than inflation from that original promised amount, and the original was like 210 miles range, they are near 300 now.  

But we are talking about a whole new model so the Model 3 has nothing to do it it.  And Tesla hasn't said a price or when the next car is available, but they did state a goal to sell 4-5 Million of them per year.  So the price has to be low to hit 5 million units per year. 

7 hours ago, David said:

What PROOF do you have that GM ramp up is not as fast as Tesla? GM has more battery capacity coming online this year in the U.S. and will exceed Tesla Battery production here by the end of the year. GM as well as Ford already know how to build more autos faster than Tesla. Proof is in the Trucks where each company has a truck coming off the assembly line in seconds. Tesla cannot do that yet.

Cox article is historical and while sales have surprised the industry analysts, all it takes is the recession that the investment community sees coming by the end of the year to kill off those sales.

Tesla DOES NOT have any $25-$30,000 EV. GM does and it goes on sales this summer. Also you have no proof that GM which says they can make a profit on the Equinox and Blazer EV that they are not making any profit.

Tesla showed their Cybertruck in 2019 with promise to have it out in production in 2021. Now we are in 2023 and they are having so many engineering problems with the Cybertruck that they will not really have it out other than a few special production units this year. 2024 is now the more common time frame to have that truck out, 5 years after showing it off and at 6 figure prices first.

GM as does Ford and Rivian has their trucks out and are working to ramp as battery production comes online.

All of what you stated above is MUSK KOOLAID drinking and no actual facts. 

Mary Barra herself has said they can't make profit on EV's under $40k until maybe 2030.  And they are targeting like 400k EV's next year or in 2024 whatever it is.  Tesla will be at 8 million EV by 2030 easily, that will be more than GM's combined ICE and EV sales.

And GM might get the EV's right and be a player, they aren't the ones that risk extinction like some of the other brands.

6 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Tesla is, at a bare minimum, 2-3 years off for this. They haven't shown anything or made an official announcement and we all know how long it takes them to get anything from announcement to customers' hands. 

I think it's also safe to say that 25k will never happen. If they hit 30k on the nose, that would be a big win but I don't think they will ever sell a 25k car. If they do, it'll be for a couple months, just like the 35k Model 3. They did it to say they could and then immediately axed the trim/model. If I remember correctly, the 35k Model 3 only sold for 5 months. 

But, GM does have an EV in that price range already. I don't like it, but the Bolt and Bolt EUV are under 30k and are on sale now. 

But the Bolt is getting discontinued a the end of the year. 

The $25-30k Tesla depends on the Mexico factory, which Tesla will say will opening 2024, but let's say it is 2025.  So once that is open the low cost car comes out. And they said it is 40% less cost to procure than a Model 3/Y.

1 hour ago, David said:

The global economy is not as sound as you seem to think and while they have had sales by cutting prices, I admit that many, myself included, are surprised by the global sales. 

With that said, GM roles out multiple EVs this year and has the ability to ramp up production. Yes sales will come from some companies, but while Tesla will stay solid, I do not see them ramping to the moon in sales as much as you do.

Here is one of many stories that foreshadow the upcoming depression.

Electric vehicle production set to surge in 2023 despite low sales | Reuters

Then we have news stories like this that also put water on how hot you think the EV market is.

EV sales slowing in 2023. Why are more Americans unlikely to buy one? (usatoday.com)

Need to look at the large picture of everyone selling. Numbers are interesting.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-june-2023-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/

But GM's EV ramp up isn't as fast as what Tesla will ramp up in 2024-2027.  Although GM is going faster with more product than some others.  It is the ones like Subaru, Nissan, Mazda that I think are going to be screwed, and probably Honda since they just want to rebadge GM EV's which could lead to a supply problem for them.  

And the Cox article highlights how sales are coming back, probably will see a 15.4 million sales year this year, and if there is any interest rate cut next year, I don't see why it couldn't be back to 16-17 million in 2024.  

And Tesla's big advantage will be the $25-30,000 car.  They will be able to turn profit on a sub $30,000 EV which it seems no one else can make profit on a $40,000 EV.   So Tesla can really monopolize that sub $40,000 price point, which is a huge part of the market.

2 hours ago, David said:

@smk4565 Take a step back from the Musk Pipe and realize that they have major problems. Basic engineering is a problem for them and the Cybertruck. Do not expect any quantity but a few till 2024 and even then it will be triple digits as Musk has stated he will start at the top end of production order quality. These are $150,000 trucks and I doubt we will ever see anything below $50,000 from them any time soon if ever.

Leaked Tesla documents shed new light on why the Cybertruck is taking so long - The Verge

I don't see problems, I see sales going to the moon!

After 2 quarters this year they are where they were after 3 quarters last year.   And Q2 last year the Shanghai plant was in a covid shut down, if you toss that out, it is 14 consecutive quarters of growth.  

The demand for EV's is growing faster than I think many OEM's predicted.   Tesla will pass by VW and Toyota in 2028-2029, those sales come at the expense of someone.  So the question is who all Tesla's volume comes at the expense of.

9 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Man.... you gotta stop smoking the Musk Vaporware....

I don't own their stock, nor do I really intend to buy a Tesla.  But the facts are the facts, the growth is unstoppable, the margins are 4 times better than what most car companies are at.  And the legacy OEM's don't make money on EVS and none of them have scale on EV's outside of BYD.  Which presents another problem for Ford, VW and GM who are getting clobbered in China because BYD and Tesla are on the rise.

44 minutes ago, David said:

Yet you continue to ignore the move to U.S. manufacturing to gain the full 7500 rebate. Just accept that Tesla time will change by next year as more options come on the market and Korean manufacturing gets going to build EVs here.

Yet the bulk of those sales are in Lemming China and Europe, not the U.S. and yes style and interior does make a difference. The last two quarters will show a more truthful picture as U.S. manufacturing gets going of EVs by the Koreans and GM.

Last year when Tesla did not have the tax rebate and Hyundai/Kia did, Tesla still outsold them and everyone else.  

Also the Model Y outsells the Rav4 in the USA, and the Rav4 is way cheaper, has the Toyota brand name, strong resale, low ownership cost, etc.  The Rav4 was the crossover gold standard that Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia were never even close to outselling, Tesla came in and blew it way with ease. 

And the Tesla "Model 2" is going to sell 4-5 million units annually.  That 1 model alone could outsell the whole Ford Motor Company. 

GM and Ford are trying, but I think they are going too slow.  At least they are doing something though, most of the Japanese brands and Stellantis are asleep at the switch, Toyota hoping they can tap the cash reserve and play catch up, but time is running out on that.

And the problem for legacy OEM isn't just scale, it is profitability,  Tesla margins are nearly double Mercedes-Benz margins (best in class for legacy OEM).  So how does Hyundai or Ford or GM, make a $40,000 EV with better margins than an Escalade or Navigator?   They can't is the answer.

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

That means nothing regarding attractive designs. The EV6 is too expensive for its size and bodystyle. I like it, but I wouldn’t pay what Kia is asking for it. 
 

but that doesn’t make Teslas less stark

But the Tesla is the car people want, so they must not hate the styling or interior.  The EV6 is smaller than a Sportage and costs double.  Shocker that it doesn't sell.

6 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

The charger and the motor, and certain batteries are the only things that Tesla has an advantage on. Their visual design sucks (peaked at early Model S) and their interior design can only be considered "design" by the most technical use of the word.  Stark, stale, austere, plain, and unremarkable, are all words I'd use to describe Tesla aesthetics.  Are they still using Dodge Dart window switches? I haven't checked lately.

And yet Q2 2023 was another sales record for Tesla.  Ioniq 5 is flat for the year, Mach-E was down 36% YTD through May, EV6 was reported to be down 43% in June, it has been down all year.  These guys don't have a chance.  They can't get any volume, and they can't make any profit.  

It isn’t just about no maintenance.  The Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the world.  The Mach-e, iD4, Ioniq 5 are not and aren’t even close.   This is quickly becoming Apple vs Nokia, Blackberry, Ericsson, Motorola, etc.  

17 minutes ago, David said:

Tesla is much like Mercedes, sold on a badge to Lemmings that can only look at the badge and ignore all the quality issues of the product on top of the worst style design ever. Both companies FAIL at style and interior room/design sucks big time.

I think the Tesla exterior style looks pretty good, their cars still look modern even after being around several years.    It isn't lemmings buying them either, Tesla's beat the competition in range, performance, charging, charge network, autonomous tech, and price.  That's why their EV's sell and the others don't.  

1 hour ago, David said:

Not sure I would call this Tesla Dominance as much as common sense to folks that felt the CCS connector was poorly designed compared to the NACS.

Proof of how people want small easy to use connectors is proven by this image alone.

Kind of like Tesla EV's compared to others.   Much better design at Tesla.  They can all switch the charger, but they can't switch their cars.

Tesla dominance continues.

8 hours ago, David said:

I disagree, you can clearly see the Lambo influence in the front end design and for a high end luxury EV option, I can see the 1% class wanting a family hauler in a sedan and SUV like this. I would not be surprised to see this exceed the limited options of Lamborghini or Ferrari. 

Lamborghini and Ferrari have both stated they will stay focused on performance autos and yet while they have offered a 4 person suv option, they have clearly not cared about the 4/5 person sedan market.

Why else would Filippo leave the top spot at Lamborghini to go to a startup, he was limited and wanted to expand the portfolio, but the CEO and Board did not.

I fully expect this high end EV company to survive, how long in the current format is another question.

We don't know a price range for these but Mercedes dominates the big sedan market, we've seen stuff like the Aston Martin Rapide and Jaguar XJ, Cadillac CT6 come and go.  There aren't enough sedan buyers at the higher end, even at $75,000+ to really have new entrants come in.  It isn't a growth segment.

On the SUV side, you have Tesla Model X, electric G-wagon and EV Escalade will be out by 2026, although the Escalade would be a North American thing, not European, but Mercedes, Audi, BMW will have plenty of electric SUVs in Europe before Aehra arrives.  

Aehra really has to be able to beat the competition on price, which they won't be able to do because they won't have their scale.  Lucid is already running out of money and they seemed a bit more fleshed out than this company is and Lucid hit the market when it wasn't as crowded with EV's, AEHRA is going to hit it when EV price wars are going on.

5 hours ago, David said:

I disagree, you can clearly see the Lambo influence in the front end design and for a high end luxury EV option, I can see the 1% class wanting a family hauler in a sedan and SUV like this. I would not be surprised to see this exceed the limited options of Lamborghini or Ferrari. 

Lamborghini and Ferrari have both stated they will stay focused on performance autos and yet while they have offered a 4 person suv option, they have clearly not cared about the 4/5 person sedan market.

Why else would Filippo leave the top spot at Lamborghini to go to a startup, he was limited and wanted to expand the portfolio, but the CEO and Board did not.

I fully expect this high end EV company to survive, how long in the current format is another question.

Maybach, Bentley, Rolls, will all have EV's, Porsche already does, Lamborghini and Ferrari will get there.  Plenty for the 1% crowd to pick from, not sure they want an unknown brand, such as the Lucid Air that is a sales dud.

Hyundai is exploring it also.  They will all jump on and Tesla will be the largest charge network in the world.