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thegriffon

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Everything posted by thegriffon

  1. thegriffon

    GM stock

    GM is too big to fail, but unfortunately too many people don't understand that. That includes congressmen on both sides. GM sells as many cars as Toyota, but has many fewer models. They need to spend just as much to stay competitive, but can't. Cutting the brands they have doesn't solve anything. They've been cutting models for years and all it does is cost them sales, reducing their development budget even further. You think more of the same taken to an even greater extreme will turn things around? What GM needs to do is not cut brands, or cut models. They need to restore margins. They need to cut production costs and increase transaction prices so they can fund the same level of development that Toyota does. Cutting a brand such as Pontiac or Buick robs them of billions of dollars they do not have, and does not improve their situation. They can keep cutting brands and models until they have only Chevrolet left and cannot finance a single new engine, transmission or replacement model. If they can restore margins, then they don't need to cut brands, and if they can't, cutting brands will not help. On that front they have been doing the right thing, not fast enough, and not consistently enough, but they have been doing it. Restoring resale by keeping inventory in control and cutting sales to daily rental. Increasing transaction prices across the board. Improving perceived value by new interiors and better design. Negotiating new contracts to slash healthcare and wage costs to match Toyota. Cutting redundant model investment by selling the same models in different markets. Even if you don't count the Japanese dealer channels (which add Toyopet, Netz and Corolla as addition brands) or medium trucks (Hino), Toyota still has 5 brands in different markets (Toyota, Scion, Daihatsu, Perodua and Lexus—4 in the same European markets), and will probably add a 6th. It's all about profitability, and nothing about the cost of running so many brands. If they made just $3000 on every Pontiac (closer to what Honda and Toyota do), they could finance a new model program, from scratch (new unique architecture and body), every year, even selling just 300,000 a year. Even this year they would come close to that and they have no such totally unique models. At that level Pontiac could sustain 5 unique models (more than they need), with almost no carryover from one generation to the next, and no model or platform sharing at all (engines and powertrain are another matter).
  2. I can give you a reorganization plan that will save GM, one that even PCS would largely approve of (except that it includes Holden). Unfortunately it would mean the total destruction of all manufacturing in the US, at every level, in every sector of the economy. You and everyone else in the US would be unemployable within a couple of years. I can understand if that is something GM wants to avoid. Anything else will just be re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic. Don't think that I am exaggerating. I am not. GM can abandon the North American market and American manufacturing completely, fire everyone, shut down all manufacturing in Western Europe, leave them with no pension or healthcare benefits, see every supplier collapse as a consequence, watch Toyota and Honda implode under North American losses as well (Toyota is predicting unexpected reductions in profits of as much as 90%, and if things get worse that could easily swing into billions of dollars in losses—if GM fails, then Ford fails, Chrysler fails, suppliers fails, and Toyota will be looking at losses even greater than GM—believe me, they have an enormous cash hoard to see them through, but they are very scared. Not only will they lose 60% or more of their own market, but they still own large chunks of suppliers which now depend on Detroit for a large chunk of business. A collapse of the Big three will result in the collapse of most suppliers, and a massive and long-lasting depression that will devastate Toyota, Honda and Nissan. The world's largest automaker could wind up being Suzuki or Tata), or they can ask governments in North America and Europe for billions of dollars in loans to finance continuing operations and product development until healthcare, wage and pension concessions they have already negotiated have a real effect on the bottom line. There is no middle ground. Selling or closing Pontiac, GMC, Buick, Saturn, Opel, Saab, and everything except Chevrolet, will have no effect. It will even hasten their demise. These are legacy issues current management has had to face and has mostly done a good job in managing. They could have handled Fiat better, but it would not have helped. They could have managed the brands better, but it would not have helped. They would still be losing billions and at best have another 6-months to a year in the current economic environment. What kind of reorganization do you expect them to implement?
  3. Well, I'll remember that when you join everyone else on the unemployment lines.
  4. As for the $25 billion in funding for green car programs, GM will get nothing for the Volt, because the program was completed too soon, they will get no money for future programs either. They first have to spend the money, starting in 2009, and then apply for a loan to pay for it. Since they can't get money to spend beforehand, they can't get loans from the government afterwards. This way congress can appear to be making an investment in the industry and improving fuel economy, without actually doing so. Now you know why GM sounded so depressed and hopeless, They've recieved a handshake from government with one hand, and a stab in the back with the other.
  5. This is Australia I'm talking about. Up to $21,000 in a cash grant for first home buyers, 100% finance still available (110% if you have a guarantor), and waivers for the normal stamp duties and other government fees. No income test. Incredibly I am seeing the loan calculators saying people can afford to borrow a third of what they have been in the last 10-15 years, and that is at the now much lower interest rates that are starting to appear now. That would have put a real crimp in housing prices. Realtors of course are still claiming things are better than they are. We should be looking at home prices collapsing 60%, but I don't think sellers and realtors will ever accept that.
  6. Further the overall Green Car Plan will provide: • A better-targeted, greener, $3.4 billion assistance program, the Automotive Transformation Scheme (ATS), running from 2011 to 2020; • Changes to the Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme in 2010, consistent with the Bracks review proposals, to smooth the transition to the ATS ($79.6 million); • $116.3 million to promote structural adjustment through consolidation in the components sector and to facilitate labour market adjustment; • $20 million from 2009–10 to help suppliers improve their capabilities and their integration in complex national and global supply chains; • $6.3 million from 2009–10 for an enhanced market access program; • A new Automotive Industry Innovation Council, bringing key decision makers together to drive innovation and reform; and • A $10.5 million expansion of the LPG vehicle scheme, to start immediately, that doubles payments to purchasers of new vehicles using LPG technology
  7. Don't get too excited, it doesn't actually begin until 2011. In Australia we might call this a Clayton's assistance package—it's the assistance you get when you don't get any assistance.
  8. Well, I only get the NFL, so yeah, whatever.
  9. Weight and cost. Gamma is designed only for 4-cylinder engines, so doesn't need to be designed for the weight and power of a V6 (Theta) or the space requirements of the larger Family II 4-cylinders (Delta). At the same time the stretched Gammas (Montana and Combo) are Corsa-based, and share a lot of sheetmetal as well as structure. With less structure devoted to support the engine and powertrain, more can go in to enhancing payload, key for commercial vehicles such as the Montana and Combo. A Montana has a payload capacity greater than many compact and fullsize trucks sold in the US.
  10. Dude, I'm still seeing ads for zero percent down. It's crazy. Of course here te goverment is paying first home buyers enough for a sizeable deposit. Not enough for the major cities (which are still way over priced), but enough to get into a nice home in a small regional center.
  11. The Genesis coupe is so much smaller than the Camaro and Challenger it's not a valid comparison. They should be comparing it to the A5, GTR or G37, but it probably won't come out so well. They did create Genesis as a new brand … in Korea.
  12. I'm so excited, I have HD TV now, so I can watch the NFL when I'm not working. Eagles v Giants Yeah!!!!
  13. The wheelbase of the 9-3 is what? 2685 mm IIRC. Guess what, so is the Chevrolet Cruze.
  14. Nationalized healthcare is not the answer. In those countries where healthcare, not just health coverage, is nationalized, the health system is in even more crisis than the US. The difference is there is no money to pay for hospital staff, or hospital facilities. You can afford heathcare, you just can't get it. You can turn up to an empty emergency room and still wait hours for treatment. Nurses and doctors are overworked, underpaid and overwhelmed leading to mistakes, poor hygiene and inadequate care. Universal, non-employer-based healthcare coverage is essential for industry and consumers, but it just shifts the cost burden. Healthcare globally is a morass of exorbitant cost over-runs, waste, inefficiency, and in the worst cases, chronic malpractice. Healthcare needs a company like Toyota to re-organize it from the ground up, from pharmacies to GPs, to specialists to hospitals, universities and pharmaceutical companies (now there is an industry which needs to be nationalized). You need a way to pay for it, but more importantly, to keep costs under control but innovation and quality increasing.
  15. ;-) It is exactly like an offroad Corsa, bearing in mind that the last Corsa's Gamma platform was stretched to a 2.7 m wheelbase (as much as the Vectra and Captiva) for some products.
  16. Oh, and repeated claims by certain people that GM is planning to shut down certain divisions, does nothing to help. It is yet another "self-fulfilling prophecy", undermining sales and forcing GM to do so, whatever they really plan. It undermines the divisions in question, it undermines GM's revenue, it undermines the credibility of management who repeatedly say it isn't so (but of course this appears to be the purpose). I can respect Evok, De Lorenzo and others who say Pontiac should go (as much as I disagree), but I have nothing but contempt for someone who does his best to ensure it happens through the spread of demoralizing and malicious allegations, rumor and innuendo. All it does is accelerate GM's decline, and open the company to lawsuits from dealers alleging misleading and deceptive conduct if they do one day decide to shut down the division. I can understand that GM may not have enough money to develop unique products for Pontiac, in fact that's nothing new, Pontiac has rarely had unique products anyway (what is the G3 but a direct replacement for the last Le Mans). But to suggest Pontiac is being denied products because of a secret conspiracy to eliminate the brand is either delusional or scandalous. What must be will be, it does not need a secret master plan.
  17. They've already done most of what you are suggesting, the problem is it doesn't really have much effect until 2010. They should have been OK until then, only congress f—ed up and destroyed the credit markets by demanding lenders make riskier loans to people who could not afford them, while doing nothing to keep people employed. For all the blame being laid on Wallstreet (and lenders do share some of the blame), this economic catastrophe was created by Democratic administrations and congressmen. Lending restrictions were relaxed under the Clinton administration, not the Bush, in a vain attempt to enable more people to buy homes (they were not alone, it has been the policy of governments of every stripe worldwide). n doing so they helped create an unsustainable housing bubble that eventually burst when too many people could not repay their astronomical mortgages. Then, when the first symptoms were appearing last year, Democratic congressmen demanded that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae take on even more bad mortgages to keep the money flowing (if you don't believe me the NY Times has a great series of articles outlining how the crisis developed and the contributions made by Democratic congressmen and the Clinton administration). As a result GM cannot borrow against assets like Ford did. It cannot find buyers for assets like Ford did, it cannot refinance etc.. No-one, not even Toyota, can make money in North America right now, so many people are struggling with bills, upside down mortgages, the collapse in the housing market and job security, mortgages and home equity loans worth far more than their properties etc., and no credit available to dealers or customers to buy cars. GM was fighting a tough battle to be sure, but congress has shot the horse from under them with their blundering interference in lending practices. It would be only fair that they now provide billions of dollars in compensation. Hell, I'd be inclined to start a class action, but I doubt it would be allowed. Despite efforts by the UAW, the chairmen of the Big 3 and Democrats such as Dingell (a man whose policies I support on many issues) to lobby speaker Pelosi and other Democrats for emergency government investment, their support only goes so far to ask the Bush administration to use the existing funds for the mortgage bailout, in full knowledge that they legally can't. It appears they see this as an opportunity to destroy the auto industry, while letting the Bush administration take the blame. Pelosi is from California, so I'm sure the California high-speed rail project will go through, but otherwise y'all will have to walk, or buy a Chinese bicycle and pedal. Somehow I don't think Pelosi understands what it takes to get to work in the middle of a midwestern winter. You can wait for Obama to act but no matter what he asks for I suspect all he'll get from congress is a modest aid package for the workers laid off in the immediate aftermath. Gettelfinger needs to reach out to the pilots, the railway unions etc and put Washington under seige until he gets a package to save his union from extinction. He should have done it years ago, but he's apparently not that smart.
  18. There used to be a lot more, and most of those left are old.
  19. Ahh, a few do, but they're not widely available, and AFAIK, don't sell very well. Three-door SUVs/Crossovers: Mitsubishi Pajero Mini (aka Nissan Kix) Suzuki Jimny Suzuki Jimny Sierra Santana 300 (earlier Suzuki Sierra) UFO Paisaje (G2 RAV4) Auverland A3 (military) Jeep Wrangler Land Rover Defender Troller T4 Suzuki Grand Vitara Mercedes G-Class Santana Anibal (aka Iveco Campagnola/Massif) Toyota LandCruiser Prado Mitsubishi Pajero Landwind X9 Nissan Patrol Toyota FJCruiser
  20. Many more photos and info at: Chevrolet Reveals the GPiX Crossover Coupe Concept
  21. Very probably, although the press has apparently missed that entirely, suggesting Delta instead. The timing and size screams Gamma however. Expect the volume production model to have 4/5 doors though, not 2/3.
  22. I wouldn't be surprised if they were laying off more contract staff from the Volt program because it was nearly done. They have a schedule, they have the program pretty much complete, perhaps they don't need so many people working on it any more. Thankyou for your service, a great job, but we don't have anything more for you to do until the government gives us money for more programs.
  23. Ah, who's saying it isn't now. Sales are crashing in western Europe too, and they were barely profitable before. Of course even Toyota is losing hundreds of millions in the US now.
  24. As an old fogey, I like the early series the best. Animated sucks, and anyway, they were all animated. At least the early series had a plot and an overall story arc which the more recent series seem to have totally abandoned. Oh and the studio producing them was a subsidiary of Hasbro (I don't know who does them now).
  25. In size and form it's closest to the Fiat Croma. It may have optional awd, but so do the Audi A6 Avant, the Opel Insignia etc.
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