Jump to content
  • Greetings Guest!

    CheersandGears.com was founded in 2001 and is one of the oldest continuously operating automotive forums out there.  Come see why we have users who visit nearly every day for the past 16+ years. Signup is fast and free, or you can opt for a premium subscription to view the site ad-free.

dfelt

Supercharging EVs, is it the end of Petro?

Recommended Posts

Came across this write up about if and when the end of petro auto's will take place.

 

post-12-0-86683300-1464709623_thumb.png

 

SuperCharged EVs.

 

Overall advanced in fuel cells and advanced battery technology is not enough to offset the growth in auto sales in emerging markets powered by Petro. Yet it does clearly state that one cannot ignore this market niche. The estimate is that 800 million auto's will be added to the world wide fleet over the next 20 years.

 

The additional charts and info is very informative on how EVs, PHEVs, etc. can affect the overall marketplace. Interesting is the charts that also show US oil productions, rigs and exploration. Some very interesting info. 

 

While I agree that for some they will not see the change over to a pure EV, PHEV or Hybrid driven auto market, I think many of us will see it still over the next 50 years along with self driving auto's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Petro will not die. What will happen is that was battery costs come down, advancements are made, BEVs will become more affordable. At the same time, they will displace oil normally associated with petro powered cars (even the energy grid on the aggregate uses less fossil fuels to produce energy that powers a BEV than conventional ICE). 

 

Then oil prices will go down as there will be a glut of supply to work through. And concurrently, efficiency gains will be made such as HCCI, even better (and CLEAN) diesels and stuff like 48 volts systems being able to power electric turbos and such on, so forth).

 

Then what will happen is that either prices for local electicity bills will be rising due to increasing costs, especially life cycle renewal as much of the grid, while largely reliable, is old, and starting to show inefficiency, wear and tear, as well as more renewables being injected into the system.

 

Then governments will realize with flailing gas tax revenues, you will be taxed on miles driven, not fuel consumed or energy used....and/or if they're archaic and dumb they will just place another levy on energy prices or raise the gas tax through the roof.

 

The point is not the make EVs the majority. The point is to reach a place where ICE and battery cars are fully substitutable (if ICE cars start getting powered by wonder Algae). And also, making the grid sustainable and increasing capacity at a competitive price to fossil fuels.

 

But, here is the thing. When you drive an EV, any of them, hell even the 400 lb-ft of tq Spark EV....you realize what the difference really is. EVs will always be more efficient with the energy require, even with their poor record of meeting their lofty MPG-e than any gas car could ever be for the time being. Some advancements may be forthcoming, but EV should be here to stay.

 

However the true test of EV's will come not when they start making affordable ones...but they start making those that don't need a tax credit or any outside party incentive to sell. Sure, regular cars get older, and incentives correspond to product cycles.

 

Also, because of the current way people pay for EV use, the leases pay for themselves because of incentives and offsetting the cost of fuel (less with low gas prices) that isn't purchased. In a more closer equilibrium, when people are taxed on the miles driven, and paying higher energy costs (unless they become net energy neutral or positive), the advantage of efficiency will actually diminish. But if gas prices go through the roof, supply gets killed, Iran/Saudi nuke each other...etc....there is so much upside to EVs,

 

And also, how do manufacturers deal with EV obsolescence? ICE cars are much more stable than EVs. EVs might or might not get increasingly better range.

 

I will not say the EVs are more reliable than ICE cars. But they don't require as much traditional maintenance, such as oil changes, brake pad replacements, other fluid changes. However, that might be pretty disruptive to the entire car industry that is built on maintenance of existing things. When things simply need less maintenance, where will those jobs go, or how will those employees remain as productive? My bet is that the cost of maintenance of a vehicle will rise regardless of whether it's a ICE, or BEV.

 

So....that's kinda long-winded, but what I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting thoughts you have stated Suaviloquent. Appreciate you chiming in here about this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle.

 

PHEV - not to be confused with PZEV - Partial Zero-Emmissions Vehicle.

 

Which leads me to ask....how the f*** do make a vehicle that can be classified as only "partially" zero emissions compliant? Either you are or you are not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle.

 

PHEV - not to be confused with PZEV - Partial Zero-Emmissions Vehicle.

 

Which leads me to ask....how the f*** do make a vehicle that can be classified as only "partially" zero emissions compliant? Either you are or you are not. 

Agree with you on the PZEV as that one has always made me wonder and yet some of the asian brands that make PZEV auto's seem to enjoy sales success and yet I have not seen any American brand be PZEV yet and doubt they ever will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Similar Content

    • By dfelt
      We are in the Golden Age of Auto's with a revolution that will see the gentle passing of ICE Auto's as they are replaced by the EV Auto. With today's small 2% plus market share, the EV auto is having a major impact on auto suppliers. 
      According to the director of product development, filtration and engine peripherals J.D. Kehoe of Mahle Filter Systems of North America, the ICE downsizing, 48V Hybridization and electric traction motors are affecting the development of future powertrains. Mahle's corporate strategy is to keep on top of all trends supporting the wide variety of options and yet that also comes with the added danger that if you make the wrong call, a company could be on the hook for millions of dollars in parts cost if they build and support the wrong tech version of any given powertrain.
      You have the success of the Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf and Tesla making up the 2-3% of global deliveries today and by 2023 the auto industry expects to have 205 EV models on the market replacing many ICE models.
      Manufactures have a wide range that specify from 200V to 400V based on the battery packs with each electric motor up to 134HP depending on vehicle design. 
      Mahle has grown their EV portfolio to off EV-oriented technology to OEM customers from high-voltage liquid cooled electric traction motors  that operate in the 400V to 800V range with power output up to 240HP with unlimited lifetimes as they are brushless designs that require little to no maintenance and they are working to increase their motors power density to have offerings up to supercar level.
      Mahle offers 48V IPM synchronous electric motors that can operate in a range of 42V to 52V to meet the needs of various designs for mild hybrid applications.
      Areas of instant growth that Mahle and other auto suppliers are hiring for is in needs of electric AC and heater systems that are low voltage demanding along with leak detection devices as all the new closed system EV systems have a new wave of monitoring to optimize performance / efficiency. 
      Example of this is the need to monitor battery-cell electrolytes that must not come in contact with water or humidity from the cooling system.
      While powertrains are expected to reduce as much as 75% in complexity and parts compared to ICE powertrains, electronics are expected to expand greatly in the various uses from monitoring subsystems to safety and occupant comfort.
      As auto companies look to reduce weight, use new technology material like carbon fiber and high strength plastics the needs to adjust and change quickly means the nimble suppliers will win the evolving change in consumer / commercial auto's.
      Wards Auto Story
      Mahle web site
    • By William Maley
      We know that the current Volkswagen Beetle will soon be heading off to the great parking lot in the sky sometime next year, and that a direct replacement will not happen. But there is talk about bringing back the Beetle as an electric vehicle.
      Volkswagen's design chief Klaus Bischoff revealed to Autocar that he has already made a sketch of a possible Beetle EV, but it will be some time before the automaker makes a decision whether to move forward with this or not. Some of this comes down Volkswagen wanting to get the bigger-selling electric cars into production first (see I.D. hatchback and  I.D. Crozz) before moving onto the 'emotional' models.
      “Our duty is to get the volume [ID] models under way. These cars have super-complicated technology and if you do too much, it’s an overload. Then we [can] move into more exotic cars and the field of emotion,” said Bischoff.
      If Volkswagen does give the green light for a Beetle EV, what could it look like? According to Autocar, the model could grow in size and get two extra doors.
      “The Beetle of today is a very attractive two-door coupé or convertible, but it is limited in the amount of cars that it can sell because it’s a niche. If you look at MEB, the shortest wheelbase [possible] is the ID [hatchback]. If you took that and did the Beetle on it, you have plenty of room so there’s no compromise in functionality any more. So it could be a very attractive car,” explained Bischoff.
      We know there is a fan of an electric Beetle, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess.
      “We could [build an electric Beetle], because it is rear-wheel drive, no grille. If we wanted to do a Beetle electrically, it would be much better than the current car. Much closer to the history of the Beetle," Diess told Car and Driver back in October.
      Source: Autocar

      View full article
    • By William Maley
      We know that the current Volkswagen Beetle will soon be heading off to the great parking lot in the sky sometime next year, and that a direct replacement will not happen. But there is talk about bringing back the Beetle as an electric vehicle.
      Volkswagen's design chief Klaus Bischoff revealed to Autocar that he has already made a sketch of a possible Beetle EV, but it will be some time before the automaker makes a decision whether to move forward with this or not. Some of this comes down Volkswagen wanting to get the bigger-selling electric cars into production first (see I.D. hatchback and  I.D. Crozz) before moving onto the 'emotional' models.
      “Our duty is to get the volume [ID] models under way. These cars have super-complicated technology and if you do too much, it’s an overload. Then we [can] move into more exotic cars and the field of emotion,” said Bischoff.
      If Volkswagen does give the green light for a Beetle EV, what could it look like? According to Autocar, the model could grow in size and get two extra doors.
      “The Beetle of today is a very attractive two-door coupé or convertible, but it is limited in the amount of cars that it can sell because it’s a niche. If you look at MEB, the shortest wheelbase [possible] is the ID [hatchback]. If you took that and did the Beetle on it, you have plenty of room so there’s no compromise in functionality any more. So it could be a very attractive car,” explained Bischoff.
      We know there is a fan of an electric Beetle, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess.
      “We could [build an electric Beetle], because it is rear-wheel drive, no grille. If we wanted to do a Beetle electrically, it would be much better than the current car. Much closer to the history of the Beetle," Diess told Car and Driver back in October.
      Source: Autocar
    • By William Maley
      Before the start of this year's Detroit Auto Show, Ford held a press conference revealing new models such as the new Bullitt Mustang and Ranger. But they also teased a new electric crossover wearing an iconic name - Mach 1. The only details provided by Ford is that it would provide a range of 300 miles and launch in 2020. A new report from Autocar has some possible new details on the vehicle.
      The Mach 1 crossover currently has the codename of CX430 and will likely have some design cues inspired by the Mustang. Underpinning the model will be Ford's C2 platform. Currently, this platform is being used for the next-generation Focus and Escape crossover.
      The Mach 1 is part of Ford's plan to launch 16 electric vehicles by 2022.
      Source: Autocar

      View full article
    • By William Maley
      Before the start of this year's Detroit Auto Show, Ford held a press conference revealing new models such as the new Bullitt Mustang and Ranger. But they also teased a new electric crossover wearing an iconic name - Mach 1. The only details provided by Ford is that it would provide a range of 300 miles and launch in 2020. A new report from Autocar has some possible new details on the vehicle.
      The Mach 1 crossover currently has the codename of CX430 and will likely have some design cues inspired by the Mustang. Underpinning the model will be Ford's C2 platform. Currently, this platform is being used for the next-generation Focus and Escape crossover.
      The Mach 1 is part of Ford's plan to launch 16 electric vehicles by 2022.
      Source: Autocar
  • My Clubs

  • Recently Browsing

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Reader Rides

About us

CheersandGears.com - Founded 2001

We ♥ Cars

Get in touch

Follow us

Recent tweets

facebook

×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.