dfelt

Supercharging EVs, is it the end of Petro?

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Came across this write up about if and when the end of petro auto's will take place.

 

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SuperCharged EVs.

 

Overall advanced in fuel cells and advanced battery technology is not enough to offset the growth in auto sales in emerging markets powered by Petro. Yet it does clearly state that one cannot ignore this market niche. The estimate is that 800 million auto's will be added to the world wide fleet over the next 20 years.

 

The additional charts and info is very informative on how EVs, PHEVs, etc. can affect the overall marketplace. Interesting is the charts that also show US oil productions, rigs and exploration. Some very interesting info. 

 

While I agree that for some they will not see the change over to a pure EV, PHEV or Hybrid driven auto market, I think many of us will see it still over the next 50 years along with self driving auto's.

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Petro will not die. What will happen is that was battery costs come down, advancements are made, BEVs will become more affordable. At the same time, they will displace oil normally associated with petro powered cars (even the energy grid on the aggregate uses less fossil fuels to produce energy that powers a BEV than conventional ICE). 

 

Then oil prices will go down as there will be a glut of supply to work through. And concurrently, efficiency gains will be made such as HCCI, even better (and CLEAN) diesels and stuff like 48 volts systems being able to power electric turbos and such on, so forth).

 

Then what will happen is that either prices for local electicity bills will be rising due to increasing costs, especially life cycle renewal as much of the grid, while largely reliable, is old, and starting to show inefficiency, wear and tear, as well as more renewables being injected into the system.

 

Then governments will realize with flailing gas tax revenues, you will be taxed on miles driven, not fuel consumed or energy used....and/or if they're archaic and dumb they will just place another levy on energy prices or raise the gas tax through the roof.

 

The point is not the make EVs the majority. The point is to reach a place where ICE and battery cars are fully substitutable (if ICE cars start getting powered by wonder Algae). And also, making the grid sustainable and increasing capacity at a competitive price to fossil fuels.

 

But, here is the thing. When you drive an EV, any of them, hell even the 400 lb-ft of tq Spark EV....you realize what the difference really is. EVs will always be more efficient with the energy require, even with their poor record of meeting their lofty MPG-e than any gas car could ever be for the time being. Some advancements may be forthcoming, but EV should be here to stay.

 

However the true test of EV's will come not when they start making affordable ones...but they start making those that don't need a tax credit or any outside party incentive to sell. Sure, regular cars get older, and incentives correspond to product cycles.

 

Also, because of the current way people pay for EV use, the leases pay for themselves because of incentives and offsetting the cost of fuel (less with low gas prices) that isn't purchased. In a more closer equilibrium, when people are taxed on the miles driven, and paying higher energy costs (unless they become net energy neutral or positive), the advantage of efficiency will actually diminish. But if gas prices go through the roof, supply gets killed, Iran/Saudi nuke each other...etc....there is so much upside to EVs,

 

And also, how do manufacturers deal with EV obsolescence? ICE cars are much more stable than EVs. EVs might or might not get increasingly better range.

 

I will not say the EVs are more reliable than ICE cars. But they don't require as much traditional maintenance, such as oil changes, brake pad replacements, other fluid changes. However, that might be pretty disruptive to the entire car industry that is built on maintenance of existing things. When things simply need less maintenance, where will those jobs go, or how will those employees remain as productive? My bet is that the cost of maintenance of a vehicle will rise regardless of whether it's a ICE, or BEV.

 

So....that's kinda long-winded, but what I think.

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Very interesting thoughts you have stated Suaviloquent. Appreciate you chiming in here about this.

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Alright I'll be the idiot in the room... 

 

What do all of the abbreviations stand for? HEV, PHEV, and BEV? 

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Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle.

 

PHEV - not to be confused with PZEV - Partial Zero-Emmissions Vehicle.

 

Which leads me to ask....how the f*** do make a vehicle that can be classified as only "partially" zero emissions compliant? Either you are or you are not. 

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Hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle.

 

PHEV - not to be confused with PZEV - Partial Zero-Emmissions Vehicle.

 

Which leads me to ask....how the f*** do make a vehicle that can be classified as only "partially" zero emissions compliant? Either you are or you are not. 

Agree with you on the PZEV as that one has always made me wonder and yet some of the asian brands that make PZEV auto's seem to enjoy sales success and yet I have not seen any American brand be PZEV yet and doubt they ever will.

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