Nissan has already made the investment with their Canton plant. The Canton plant is not a stand alone truck plant but produces 5 models including the 3 BOF trucks. Nissan is not heavily leveraged by full sized BOF trucks as GM, F and DCX. They currently sell about 80k pickups and another 40k utilities. For Nissan, the BOF trucks offers the brand growth with little risk. Utility production is a small portion of the plants production and Nissan should have enough flexibility in the plant to adjust their product mix with the Altima and Quest.
Toyota is Toyota. They are toolin up for 300k trucks. Because they are Toyota they are sitting on a ton of cash and could easily afford the bad that goes along with the gamble. This is an investment Toyota can afford to loose. And the merits of Toyota tooling up and selling 300k pick-up is another discussion all together.
Both Nissan and Toyota are not leveraged to the point the Traditional 3 are in the BOF full size pick-up and utility business. IMO rising fuel costs will have little effect on the pickup business particularly. For the work truck, there actually might be an incentive to purchase a new truck that does get better fuel economy. The government can increase the IRS write off/mile, thereby reducing the cost of fuel for business.
The biggest question mark is that the weekend Red Neck, might defer his purchase of a pickup because of the cost of fuel but the business pick-up truck market should not fall.
Full sized utilities is another story because there market is less driven by business sales. We shall see what happens. Toyota will have replacements for the Seqouia and LX, but those are replacement vehicles that are not the make or break vehicles for the company that the 900s are to GM. Nissan has also held their own with the full sized utilites. Again Nissan had limited expectations for the vehicles especially when compared to GM and Ford.
In conclusion, Nissan is a limited player in this market and the Canton plant should be protected because of its flexibility.
Toyota on the other hand is venturing into a new territory and there are no good answers as to what will happen.
Both Toyota and Nissan have researched the market well. The difference is Nissan had conservative expectations and Toyota is being very bold.
One thing I am very certain of, I do not expect fuel prices to put a significant damper on the sales of full size pick up for the reasons I stated above.
Two questions no one has answers to:
Will the market grow because of the added capacity of Toyota or will the current players loose in a stable market volume?