evok

In the not to distant future, the V8 might be relegated to a novelty status in the industry. It is reaching the point where naturally aspirated V6s have 300+hp. I am finding less and less of a point of the V8 beyond that applications I mentioned above. Before readers fly off the handle at what I just suggested. Step away from the computer and just think about what I did write.

In 1990 the Lexus LS400 sold about 40k (IIRC) V8 equipped cars. Lexus probably will not reach that volume in 2006 with the LS430 + GS430 + the SC430. Yes more individual models for these lux brands now offer a V8 as an option, but it is a small percentage of sales. The fleet is evolving and I pull BOF trucks out of the equations as these truck based SUV become car like. The market is already shifting as more crossovers are being offered by the OEM. The new CAFE requirements for light trucks will also help this out a lot.

STS is being out sold by the MB S-Class and just barely outsells the BMW 7 for the firs 4 months of 2006. And the MSRP for the STS is just about 1/2 the BMW and MB. The STS is not a strong seller for Cadillac and is outsold by every vehicle that would be considered a direct competitor at its price point except for the Audi A6.

Let us use a term I coined before it became fashionable: "Perceived Quality"

V8 Volume is small and insignificant for the brands you mentioned. In the US Cadillac probably sells more V8s than Lexus, MB,BMW and Infiniti combined in non truck based product.

This is all double talk from Lutz. The data and analysis was not the problem. Leadership was. Trust me when i say, they are still a slave to the data and all of those Voice of Customer stuff they do. All of GM's product are fine if you have a bullet proof reputation like Toyota or Honda (insert OEM). The problem is they don't and they were running the company like they did. Toyota can design for the middle road because they are who they are. GM can not continue to do that and not loose market share. That is what they did learn and what Lutz is refering to.

Or just maybe - GM really believed all of their product was homeruns backed by good data analysis. The product is not bad, it is just that the product that has been coming out is not what GM needs to grow. Trust me when I say, there were may people inside GM that thought the GMX380 Malibu would be a homerun.

The truth is V8s particularly in passenger car applications has been on the decline since before the mid 1980s. At GM when GM switched over to fwd in the 1985 time frame only Cadillac was spared the shift to V6's. Now let us fast forward 20 years and continue with Cadillac. Cadillac produces a lot less Northstar vehicles today then they did a a few short years ago. Deville/DTS sales with the standard NS are half of what they used to be. With the SRX and STS, the NS is not a significant portion of their sales. Over the next few years even Cadillac will sell a majority of their passenger cars that are not derived from trucks with V6s. Over time when the NG DTS gets rethough out, most likely that as well will get the 3.6 as the base engine. Even Lincoln will follow the same forumla as they were once very heavy with V8s. The V8 engine is becoming a niche offering. I know it was already discussed on the boards, but what about a midlevel V6 in the Camaro to compete with the V8 in the Mustang? Even as gas prices increase, sales will continue to decline for V8s. V8s are not equated with good fuel economy in the publics mind though the EPA tags say otherwise. The public is already shifting out of the midsized SUVs for that very reason. Also, V6 in the real world do get significantly better fuel economy than the same model with the V8 no matter what the EPA numbers state. Remember the OEMs design for a test. V8 engines as I stated in my opening post will be available in limited vehicles but the trend for the last 30 years has been a market shift away from V8.

agreed

JD Power is not the media. They call it like they see it. This should be another wake up call for GM.

Yes - Let us look at the facts. The Global Big 3 are: 1 - GM 2 - Toyota 3 - Ford The US Big 3 by company are: 1 - GM 2 - Ford 3 - DCX 4 - Toyota The US Big 3 by traditional grouping are: 1 - GM 2 - Ford 3 - Toyota 4 - Chrsyler Group Yes - in 2006 Toyota is bigger than the Chrysler Group in volume.

HUH

The current STS makes absolutly no sense. The STS is priced right on top of the DTS and the there really is not reason to move up from a CTS to an STS. The vehicles are too close to the same size. The V8 option in the STS is not a high draw in sales or good reason for buyers to spend the premium on the current STS over the CTS. For the Chinese market, there will be an STS-L with a longer wheelbase. Now, if Cadillac consolodates the DTS and STS on sigma, with 2 different wheelbases, they can cover the same market with one car in one plant. The current STS needs to grow to better differentiate the vehicle from the CTS and the fwd DTS needs to go away. These vehicles can be offered with the current STS powertrain offerenings. Call the car the DTS and DTS-L because of the loyal following of the current Deville/DTS buyer. Starting length is 198in with a 5 inch stretch in the rear for the L.

Word Mark DTS-L Goods and Services IC 012. US 019 021 023 031 035 044. G & S: Motor land vehicles namely, automobiles, sport utility vehicles, trucks, vans, engines therefor and structural parts thereof Standard Characters Claimed Mark Drawing Code (4) STANDARD CHARACTER MARK Design Search Code Serial Number 78871002 Filing Date April 27, 2006 Current Filing Basis 1B Original Filing Basis 1B Owner (APPLICANT) General Motors Corporation CORPORATION MICHIGAN 300 Renaissance Center, P.O. Box 300 Detroit MICHIGAN 482653000 Attorney of Record Timothy G. Gorbatoff Type of Mark TRADEMARK Register PRINCIPAL Live/Dead Indicator LIVE

The DTS and STS most likely will be merged as one vehicle when the replacement arrives later in the decade.

BV forgive me if I misunderstood.

I was thinking naturally aspirated. And I agree, that I do not see a decrease in power rating unless - the middle east turns the tap off.

Actually it does not in the context of this thread. Computers are not a regulated industry the same way the auto industry is. Computer are not quantified by the amount of energy they use. Computers do not kill people. etc.. I think you get my point.

Actually I disagree with you analogy in the context of the automobile because of the amount of external factors that are involved in this industry. I do agree in theory however nothing in this business is every "all things being equal".

Real packaging is related to external dimensions. And yes but maybe not that drastic.

There is no ignoring the fact that OEMs can do more with less. There is a limit to what the public demands and needs for HP and torque. The HP race will end sooner or later. As someone pointed out above - vehicles will need to be designed into more effecient packages. All but 5 years ago, who would have thought that mainstream faimly sedans could be optioned with 250+hp figures with a V6. Or that 300 hp would be becoming available in naturally aspirated V6s? Even I4s are closing in on 200hp. That was Corvette territory not so long ago. A good portion of the fleet is going to 60 in under 8 or even 7 seconds with these powertrains. I put this question on the table because it has to end.

That is fine with me. I actually got the idea from reading your posts in the DI Northstar thread. I thought it might make for some good discussion.

I believe the HP wars are reaching their limits and peaks. The V8 engine is slowly becoming archaic in the passenger vehicle market for that very reason. Modern 4s and 6 have pushed vehicle performance to sports car territory of only a few years ago. You can only go so fast to 60 mph or the ¼ mile. in real terms. The buff magazines might split hairs over 0 -to-60 times, but the average consumer will not. For that very reason, the V8 for passenger vehicles may soon be phased out because it no longer matters. GM had already cancelled the V10 because they could do the same thing with the LSx V8 in the full sized utilities and pickups. The V10 might have made headlines in the press and media but that would be about it. How much longer until a V6 can do exactly what a V8 does as technology progresses further. With power rating increasing across the board for passenger vehicles of all types and powertrain configurations, how much longer does the V8 have left beyond what a V12 application has today? Beyond specialty applications and limited edition vehicles, I am finding less and less of purpose for the V8 even in the more or less main stream luxury market. For some it could be argued that a Hybrid powertrain might be the image powertrain of the future. That seems to be the approach Lexus is taking with their top of the line powertrain offerings. In the not to distant future, the V8 might be relegated to a novelty status in the industry. It is reaching the point where naturally aspirated V6s have 300+hp. I am finding less and less of a point of the V8 beyond that applications I mentioned above. Before readers fly off the handle at what I just suggested. Step away from the computer and just think about what I did write.

The only really interesting statistical observance from the data is the growth in sales for the luxury brands from 01 - 05. On average each brand increased sales by 50k unit per year. And your statements about dismissing Infiniti's growth is incorrect. Your statements is actually "spin" and not statistically valid in explaining the data.

None the less all auto data is interesting to me but using the Harbour plant study to compare GM, Ford to Honda, Nissan Toyota, etc. is meaningless because it is not an all inclusive study and as a result an apple to orange comparison. Plant to plant is relevant though.