smk4565

The ace in the hole that the XTS has is there are very few large sedans left (that aren't near $100k) and very few large FWD. The MKS is the only car on the market right now in this spot, and I agree with Drew about the execution of the interior, and how Lincolns always seem to get F150 and Taurus switches and trim in them. The old Lincoln LS had window switches that looked like they came off an Econoline van. The chance for success is that there is only one direct competitor to the XTS, and it isn't a very good car.

We don't know what the fuel economy is on the XTS, and we don't know the engine. Currently, fuel economy isn't something Cadillac does well, but perhaps because of that they will make it a focus going forward. The S-class is big, but it so expensive and many of the buyers may ride in the back seat. You can spend $112,000 on a nicely equipped S-class with a V6 engine, no other V6 sedan can command pricing like that. The S-class is a different animal, it is hard to compare other cars in terms of sales volume or pricing to it.

No, but the car closest in size is the MKS, and that doesn't sell. The Chrysler 300 is 198.6 inches long, the Genesis and Acura RL are smaller. The LaCrosse (come 2012) is the biggest Buick and it is only a couple inches longer than the 1997-2004 Regal. So people are moving away form big cars, if the XTS is 6-7 inches longer than a Chrysler 300 which is already a big car, it may be too big for a lot of buyers.

Probably what will hurt this car the most is size. Isn't it expected to be 204 inches long? That is bigger than a 300C, LaCrosse, Avalon, RL, etc. Only the MKS is that big, aside from the Equus and $100k luxury sedans. I am not sure that there are many buyers for full size sedans (longer than 200 inches) anymore. Especially with better space packaging allowing more interior space in mid-size cars.

M3 is going back to 6 cylinders, so it will be interesting to see how many of the competitors follow. Rumor is Mercedes is working on a straight-six engine. I am torn on the 6 vs 8 cylinder decision, because on one hand performance hounds like V8s, but on the other hand, the gold standard of sport sedans will have a six. And the BMW six will likely be a lot more fuel efficient than any V8, and fuel efficiency is hot right now. I think they should aim for $55k (or more) for an ATS-V, at some point Cadillac has to climb the price ladder.

The 2012 3-series has a 4 cylinder and 0-60 time is 5.7 seconds which is quite good for a base model entry luxury car. Most will find that plenty quick. But someone like me would opt for the straight six just for how smooth it sounds. CamCord market doesn't have to worry about enthusiast buyers who spend dollars for intangibles.

I agree with this because I for one won't buy a 4-cylinder car. Even the good ones still lack refinement, they vibrate, don't sound that great when pushed hard etc. And I feel that way about current Ecotec's, Saab turbo 4's and Audi's turbo 4. Surprisingly I thought the Sonata had pretty good refinement for a 4-banger, but I'd never buy one of those either. For me I want a 6 or 8 cylinder, even just for the sound of it. And I don't see a turbo 4 competing with the 335i, so there better be 6-cylinders in the ATS.

They should make a 17 liter V20!!!!! But seriously, why don't they use some technology, rather than just constantly increasing engine size. Throw in a super charger or something.

The turbo 4 should be more focused on MPG since some buyers don't care about straight line power, and there are some other 32-40 mpg entry level luxury cars. There has to be a good V6 though for the people that do care about performance. More engine options equals more appeal.

Problem with FWD or even an AWD transverse engine is they usually have 60/40 weight distribution. Secondly, at over 275 hp or so, FWD cars torque steer and have understeer as well. And my guess is the XTS suspension won't be set up to tackle the Nurburgring, it is going to be Lexus-level floating.

This is the ugliest mid-size luxury car for sale. Same engine and transmission as the old car. Lexus builds too many slush bucket mush mobiles to understand how to make a good sport sedan. And every Lexus is starting to look more and more like the Camry.

I doubt they are spending $500 million on the XTS, even if you include all the marketing. Probably not even half that. To me it is the principal of the thing. FWD on full size or even mid-size is what Lincoln or Acura would pull, and they are just posers. The XTS just sends the message that Cadillac is content with stop gaps or staying status-quo with the DTS buyer. Cadillac just isn't showing that desire to go to the next level.

I think we are almost to the point where manufacturer's start posting Nurburgring lap times next to 0-60 times. And really, the lap times are more telling of a car's abilities.

The Nurburgring is 12.9 miles long, has I think 149 corners and 1,000 ft of elevation change. There is a big difference in the cars tuned there and the ones that aren't.

I'd bet that the E-class or 5-series outsell the XTS on retail. But not having seen the car or what it will be priced at, it is hard to say how it will sell. I wouldn't bet on an Audi outselling it since Audi sales in the USA aren't that good.

This is the key point. I don't see the XTS as a big seller, even if it doubles the DTS, it is 2,000 cars a month. And if they fleet a lot of them off, what is the profit margin on those? GM for years had tons of sales volume and lost money because of legacy costs, massive rebates, fleets, etc. Brand positioning and profitability should be the focus. (Edit: and I know I said 3k a month earlier, but that is a high side and given lots of marketing during year one and a lot of fleet/livery sales. We've seen GM cars do well out of the gate then fall off before)

Avalon isn't a luxury car, and I left it and the RL out because their sales volume hasn't changed much over 10 years, if anything they probably dropped. The Lexus ES and Volvo S80 are mid-size cars, not full size, an S80 is smaller than a CTS by length. Taurus/Impala also not luxury cars, but their sales dropped too. My point is only that there used to be 10+ full size FWD sedans in entry to mid luxury and collectively they sold in big numbers. Come 2012 there will be LaCrosse, XTS, MKS, and those aren't big volume cars. Companies quit offering a lot of big FWD cars because people weren't buying them. The same thing can be said for body on frame SUVs, especially full size. Go back 10 years or so and look at Explorer, Expedition, Tahoe/Yukon, Trailblazer/Envoy/Bravada, Pathfinder, Sequoia/Land Cruiser, etc. BOF SUV's dominated sales charts, then crossovers came and the market quickly shifted, and who wants a 16 mpg body on frame mid-size SUV now? I just see the XTS targeting where the market was, and not where the luxury market is going.

Low mass is definitely key, especially since the 3-series just dropped 80 lbs, and GM cars tend not to pay any attention at all to weight reduction. If this car fully loaded V6 model (rwd) comes in under 3600 lbs that would be pretty good, under 3500 would be even better. What surprised me is he said 2 weeks at the Nurburgring, I hope that is just one trip, and not the total time they spent. BMW practically lives there.

So MKS sells half what the Continental did. Chrysler killed the FWD big sedans and went to RWD. LeSabre in 2000 sold 148,000 units. Park Avenue 48,000 Deville sold 105,000 Seville/Eldorado/Aurora combined for 71,000 Bonneville 66,000 Together that is 438,000 large FWD cars of about 200 inches in length. In 2011, the LaCrosse, Lucerne and DTS have combined for 74,000 sales, on pace for 98,600 for the full year. 438,000 cars to 98,000 cars in 11 years. Full size FWD luxury or near luxury is dying. Cadillac should be putting every dollar into rear wheel drive, a new V8, a new transmission, and fuel saving measures.

It is still a cheaper car, and the A8 is a sales dog. Compare retail XTS sales vs retail E-class or 5-series, at least they are at the same price point. It wouldn't surprise me if the XTS sells 3,000 cars a month, especially while new with a lot of marketing and picking up lost Town Car sales in the livery market. There is still a segment of older buyers that like a big, soft Cadillac, but I see this car at the end of its life cycle back down around 1000 cars a month like the DTS and MKS are at now. And probably another one and done GM car like the Cobalt, Lucerne, most Saturns, etc.

Well in 2000, there was the Seville, Eldorado, Deville, Aurora, Park Avenue, Continental as FWD luxury sedans over 200 inches long. Plus the Bonneville, Lesabre and 300M/LHS just below that. 10 name plates and some of those were big sellers. Come 2012 and there will be LaCrosse (197 inch long), XTS, and MKS. In 2000 Lincoln sold 22,000 Continentals, they have sold 8,800 MKS so far in 9 months this year, same size car and price point.

The XTS will because it will cost less. If the XTS was $75,000 base price I think it may be a different story. Plus the XTS will have fleet and livery sales. So yes the XTS will have volume, but how profitable is a car like that, compared to a high end RWD car that can command a price premium.

True but Cadillac has been rebuilding since 2002, it has been almost 10 years. And the XTS isn't the type of car that helps rebuild greatness. It maintains mediocrity. Just like the A8 right? How are the 2 similar? The A8 has a longitudinally mounted engine. In the US it only offers V8 and W12 engines. Yes I know there is a FWD V6 version in other markets. And how does the A8 do compared to the S-class? $20,000 less price and still gets outsold like 3 to 1 despite being a brand new design vs an S-class that has been on the market 6 years. The XTS doesn't push Cadillac to a new price point, it doesn't bring in new buyers (demographic wise), it isn't a halo vehicle, it is just filler. The ATS at least can bring in a new demographic, it provides Cadillac with a compact that they haven't had in 25 years, the ATS should grow the brand and improve image. The ATS at least challenges the imports, the XTS is just another large, domestic, FWD sedan, and that segment is dying. Why cater to a dying segment, why not go where the growth is or invent one.

True but Cadillac has been rebuilding since 2002, it has been almost 10 years. And the XTS isn't the type of car that helps rebuild greatness. It maintains mediocrity.

The Equus is more expensive than a DTS or STS, plus a lot of people don't know what it is. Hyundai isn't selling a lot of Genesis and Equus now, but they are improving, and those cars have changed the brand image and the lower end cars have been surging for 2 years now. Rome wasn't built in a day, let's see where the Genesis/Equus are in 10 years. Market leaders? No, probably not, but a thorn in the side of Lexus, you bet. And if it doesn't work out, at least they had the guts to try. A DTS or even Lucerne or LaCrosse will sell to existing Buick/Cadillac buyers who never drove anything else and that is all they want. But if Cadillac wants to grow, they need new buyers that never looked at Cadillac before, and buyers outside of the USA that hadn't looked at Cadillac before. The XTS appeals to the Cadillac buyer of the 1980s, Cadillac should be going after the buyer of the 2010s and 2020s. And yes the ATS will do that to an extent, but they need more than that. Cadillac and especially Lincoln, just can't seem to dream big or innovate or be a leader. They both are luxury cars designed by corporate bureaucracy, built on the lowest common denominator platform. Built with a sales figure goal and cash on hood rebate in mind. Neither know how to build brand image. Cadillac could be and should be better than that.