Oil production is declining in most major oil producing countries. The Sauds routinely inflate their "reserves" numbers.
In 2002 oil was priced at $26 a barrel and Saudi Arabia produced just over 7 million barrels a day. As the price rose to about $57 a bbl in 2005, production rose to just shy of 9.5 mbd. Since then oil climbed to $100 and then to $150 a bbl by August 2008 – and the Saudi's kept producing less than 9.5 mbd. It looks as though in only one of the last 5 years have they pumped more than they did in 2005. Interesting, no?
The SEC has decided that “Proved Oil Reserves” don't have to be proven at all, merely assumed to be recoverable by “reliable technology” and undisclosed “trade secrets”. Makes wishful thinking respectable.
The media is in full cry once again, baying at Peak Oil as though it were well treed and no longer a threat. The uproar started with the IEA's 2009 report and the claim that the report was fictionalized to keep the US and Big Oil (but I repeat myself) happy. Daniel Yergin, a consultant to big oil famous for his errant predictions, assures us there will be no peak before 2030 and no decline even after that. He then makes fun of Ken Deffeye , who correctly predicted production of crude oil would peak in 2005. (He joked it would happen on Thanksgiving.... ). Crude oil production (just crude oil, not stuff made out of corn, condensed out of natural gas or squeezed out of sand) peaked in 2005. In 2006, 7, and 8 crude output was below that rate. Some say all we have to do is throw more money at the problem and more oil will be found and/or retrieved. These same people say there is no hunger in the world, the food's in the wrong place and the folks that need it can't afford it. Same with oil. We've already seen what $147 a barrel does to the economy. Twenty-five percent of the world's oil comes from about 20 big fields, most of which are in serious decline. Just today Kuwait said OPEC will keep production steady. Either they do not want more money or they cannot pump more oil. Your choice. Remember, “the one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it.”