Tesla's Model 3 May Put Elon Musk Out of Business

[Guest Wings4Life(BANNED)]

Why A Hedge Fund Manager Thinks Tesla's Model 3 May Put Elon Musk Out of Business

"Tesla has to double the Model 3’s advertised price or it will lose tons of money"

Tesla Motors customers are lining up to wait as much as two years to own the company’s eagerly anticipated cheaper electric car, the Model 3. But while the new car has created a lot of buzz for Tesla  TSLA -0.23% , one high-performing hedge fund manger says the Model 3 will end up being a total wreck for the company. In fact, he says it will likely put Tesla out of business. Put another way: His price target for Tesla’s stock: $0.

Mark Spiegel, founder of hedge fund Stanphyl Capital Partners, says the Model 3—which Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised to sell for as little as $35,000—may put Tesla on a path to bankruptcy before it even comes out.

 

Link to Fortune Article

[Guest Wings4Life(BANNED)]

That was an interesting read. The Manager's math however was lacking many key items like warranty costs, materials inflation costs, competition effect, etc.

 

The Bolt could really steal momentum from the 3. And then there is Ford's Model E. Ford quietly innovates and keeps their cards close to their chest, unlike some brands that crave advertising 2-3 years in advance. The Model E is closer than people think, but I hope they keep the Focus BEV around too. At the very least, I hope they combine the fast charging ability (30 min gets you 75% battery life or 85 miles with the Focus BEV) with a lightweight new structure, smart battery space management, great style and interior space and most importantly, price.  I also think that charging speed is more important than range.  Who cares if you have another 50 mile range, which you may rarely use, when it takes much longer to charge every single day or while stopping on a long trip. If chargers can give you a huge battery boost in the time it takes you to take a shower in the morning, then you don't stress forgetting to plug in.

 

Anyway, Musk needs to be put in his place. Welcome to the complex world of large scale manufacturing, fierce competition and product complexity.  Good luck with that. 

[FAPTurbo]

"Hedge Fund Manager Wants Lower Target Share Price to Buy In."

par for the course.

[balthazar]

"Model 3 is the vehicle that will save or break Tesla" is a very real & common-sensical statement.
The Roadster was a fun, 'get yer feet wet' experiment, the model X is still flirting with becoming an actual market entity… basically the company is where it is today because to the Model S. Which sells well & has made a major thrust into it's segment, but is needs Generation 2 now.

The 3 however, is a massive leap forward, and all indications I have read say that Tesla is NOT ready for it.
That in & of itself would be fine…. IF they hadn't taken a half billion in deposits a years ago already.

Underpromise & overdeliver, not the other way around.

[David]

Interesting read, Missing many critical pieces. I have to agree with BigPoolOG that the fund manager is a dollar short day late to the party of making money on the stock, so now trying to make bad news to depress the stock to a point he is comfortable buying in.

Like Mr B has stated, this is a make or break model for Tesla. They should have Version 2.0 of the Tesla S out now and already be well underway with engineering Tesla 3. Sadly over promised, under deliver is what I believe will happen here.

Having spent considerable time in the BOLT now, Tesla is going to have a hard time. The BOLT is super quiet, solid as a rock and going to really surprise many people once they get a chance to check it out and drive it.

Many Leaf owners are wanting to trade in their lease leaf on the bolt now. I suspect GM and Chevy dealers will sell every one they get at or near MSRP for the first 6-12 months. I think GM will actually go from selling at a loss to a profit with the BOLT much faster than they did with the VOLT.

EXCITING TIMES WE LIVE IN!

[A Horse With No Name]

23 hours ago, Wings4Life said:

That was an interesting read. The Manager's math however was lacking many key items like warranty costs, materials inflation costs, competition effect, etc.

 

The Bolt could really steal momentum from the 3. And then there is Ford's Model E. Ford quietly innovates and keeps their cards close to their chest, unlike some brands that crave advertising 2-3 years in advance. The Model E is closer than people think, but I hope they keep the Focus BEV around too. At the very least, I hope they combine the fast charging ability (30 min gets you 75% battery life or 85 miles with the Focus BEV) with a lightweight new structure, smart battery space management, great style and interior space and most importantly, price.  I also think that charging speed is more important than range.  Who cares if you have another 50 mile range, which you may rarely use, when it takes much longer to charge every single day or while stopping on a long trip. If chargers can give you a huge battery boost in the time it takes you to take a shower in the morning, then you don't stress forgetting to plug in.

 

Anyway, Musk needs to be put in his place. Welcome to the complex world of large scale manufacturing, fierce competition and product complexity.  Good luck with that. 

I would upvote this by a hundred if I could, maybe a thousand.  I have been saying Tesla is doomed for awhile now...

When we talk about pride in our domestics, they have really brought their A game with this last group of cars/our current model lineup.

When we electrify our cars will have a blue oval or a bow tie on the front....

12 hours ago, dfelt said:

Interesting read, Missing many critical pieces. I have to agree with BigPoolOG that the fund manager is a dollar short day late to the party of making money on the stock, so now trying to make bad news to depress the stock to a point he is comfortable buying in.

Like Mr B has stated, this is a make or break model for Tesla. They should have Version 2.0 of the Tesla S out now and already be well underway with engineering Tesla 3. Sadly over promised, under deliver is what I believe will happen here.

Having spent considerable time in the BOLT now, Tesla is going to have a hard time. The BOLT is super quiet, sold as a rock and going to really surprise many people once they get a chance to check it out and drive it.

Many Leaf owners are wanting to trade in their lease leaf on the bolt now. I suspect GM and Chevy dealers will sell every one they get at or near MSRP for the first 6-12 months. I think GM will actually go from selling at a loss to a profit with the BOLT much faster than they did with the VOLT.

EXCITING TIMES WE LIVE IN!

Our domestics liked their wounds and actually had a sane moment of self reflection after having their ass handed to them by the Japanese and are now much more product focused.

They do not have battery or reliability issues like the Honda Hybrids or the Nissan Leaf.

GM/Ford also did not pour a crap ton of lost money down the hydrogen rat hole like Honda and Toyota did. They are in an excellent position to kick some ass....and I am sitting here on the sideline with my popcorn cheering them on...

20 hours ago, bigpoolog said:

"Hedge Fund Manager Wants Lower Target Share Price to Buy In."

par for the course.

Tesla's stock is wildly, wildly over valued. We can't discount the words of someone who works in the finance industry just because he works in the finance industry.