internal combustion engine ending The Internal Combustion Engine, the Beginning of the End 2017

[David]

G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com

The Internal Combustion Engine, the Beginning of the End 2017 

Washington Post Story

The Washington Post wrote a story about why 2017 is the official start to the end for ICE or Internal Combustion Engine auto's. They did state that it could take 50 years before the last of ICE Auto's are no longer being sold, but just like 1876 when Niklaus Otto invented the internal combustion engine and by 1915 it was clear that out of electric, steam, and gas engines, gas was the clear winner for the next 100 years, it would seem we are looking at the dawn of the EV auto with 2017. Why would people think this you might ask, well as posted in the Washington Post Story as well as reported here at Cheers and Gears and other news outlets we really have 3 core reasons:

1. Chevrolet Bolt and GM's announcement of 20 new EV autos by 2023. Other OEMS have also announced the plans to move to all EV auto product lines. GM was the first established player to launch a long range EV in the market.
2. Tesla's Model 3 mass market EV Auto, yes it is stuck in production hell, but they have captured 512,000 pre-orders as of this 3rd week of Oct. 2017. Many auto companies would love to have pre-orders for a product like this.
3. China, flexing it's muscle with the announcement that they are planning on killing all sales of ICE auto's by as early as 2030. The worlds largest auto market at 31 million auto's has some weight in how they change market dynamics.

Yes the story goes on to point out that EV auto sales in North America account for less than 1% for 2017 and yet China says EV auto sales must be 9% by the end of 2018 and rises after that each year aggressively. Thus if an established auto company wants to survive and play in the global market, they have to change their global product lineup.

Barclays analysis of Oil Demand is that by 2025 it could be slashed by 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide. If EV auto's reach a penetration of 33%, oil demand will reduce globally by 9 million barrels per day by 2040. Bloomberg puts the number of reduction at 8 million barrels per day by 2040 which they state is more than the current combined production of Iran and Iraq together. The next 5 years to 15 years will really show how fast things will change but most oil industry experts think 15 years will have minimal change on per barrel a day, then things will begin to drop. This could explain oil companies big push in the last 18 months into electric charging companies and infrastructure.

Story state something that was posted earlier this month about Shell already adapting by adding charging points at their stations and pushing owners to remodel to have a convenience store, rest area, food, etc. Here they say their stations will adapt or close.

The story also points out the effect of converting just 3 million auto sales in the US alone by the Sierra Club. Clearly people are looking to a cleaner future for themselves and their children:

• 6.5 million tons, or 13 billion pounds, of GHGs reduced annually.
• 35.6 million barrels of petroleum reduced annually, creating less of a dependency on foreign oil, further boosting demand on domestic electricity and keeping oil money spent in-state.
• 164.5 million pounds of carbon monoxide reduced annually.
• 11 million pounds of nitrogen oxides reduced annually, harmful to respiratory health and creates smog.
• 1 million pounds of particulate matter reduced annually.
• 9 million pounds of volatile organic compounds reduced annually.

[A Horse With No Name]

Good riddance to ice.

[lengnert]

While I know that EV and maybe even other modes of propulsion are coming into 'vogue', and they have some advantages....... it isn't as if there aren't drawbacks.

The ecological damage of mining the various elements needed for the batteries of an EV are a tremendous concern most still don't acknowledge.  No to mention the manner in which the energy to 'fuel' the EV vehicles are produced.

I am not one to say that internal combustion is the only way to propel automobiles, but EV's etc. are not without fault(s).

[Drew Dowdell]

5 hours ago, lengnert said:

While I know that EV and maybe even other modes of propulsion are coming into 'vogue', and they have some advantages....... it isn't as if there aren't drawbacks.

The ecological damage of mining the various elements needed for the batteries of an EV are a tremendous concern most still don't acknowledge.  No to mention the manner in which the energy to 'fuel' the EV vehicles are produced.

I am not one to say that internal combustion is the only way to propel automobiles, but EV's etc. are not without fault(s).

The ecological damage of battery mining is largely Fake News promoted by people who have an agenda against EVs.  Lithium is mined from predominantly from "the deadest places on earth".

From the article: 

Quote

The primary sources of lithium are from the Atacama Desert in Chile, and the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia. These are two of the deadest places on Earth. It’s not exactly that nothing lives there, but …

“In 2003, a team of researchers published a report in the journal Science in which they duplicated the tests used by the Viking 1 and Viking 2 Mars landers to detect life, and were unable to detect any signs in Atacama Desert soil in the region of Yungay.”

Not all of the Salar de Atacama (the big Atacama salt flat) is this dead. There are some pools there with very salt-resistant shrimp, and weirdly enough, flamingos come to this desolate, otherwise empty place. So you know what they did? They made the area where the flamingos go a national reserve. It’s both desolate and lovely. They don’t extract lithium there.

Furthermore, coal generation is rapidly declining.  Those who are savvy about EVs usually have other environmental concerns in mind, thus are more likely to have solar panels or where available, select renewable generation for their house.  I don't have an EV, but I have already switched my house to 100% power via my electric utility. 

[balthazar]

Have article in front of me from Motor Trend. When that article was written, plastics & rubber were exploding into exterior use on automobiles, prompting the title "Is The Steel Car Obsolete?"

The article was published in September 1968.

[David]

To those that say we are still very dirty, here is the latest chart showing our North America Energy use and from what sources, very interesting:

This is our GCD emissions and is pretty interesting to see how much we have increased output that is affecting the planet:

Clearly we can change and not just in auto use but elsewhere to improve our living and the footprint we leave on this planet.

[balthazar]

Limiting breeding would help.

[balthazar]

Has there ever been a study comparing normal human respiration with CO2 expelled while talking?

If the latter expels notably more, perhaps a daily texting/ tweeting/ typing quota before speech is allowed. That would cut down greenhouse gases.