smk4565

They were at a 1.92 million run rate in Q2 of this year. If they don't pass 2 million in Q3, they will in Q4 for sure, as there is still expansion happening at Berlin and Austin. Probably they get to 2.5 million next year with those factories. Mexico plant opens 2025 (or 2026 if they are late) and that has a 2 million capacity. The France or Spain plant whoever wins the 2nd European factory would be 2026 or 2027, that is another 2 million. There will be either a 2nd China factory or maybe India, and rumor is another American factory or Canada. Musk wants to build 10-12 more gigafactories, let's say they build just 5 that do 1.5 million units per year (and not the 2 million unit goal), that is 7.5 million units on top of the 2.5 million they can get out of what they have now, so 10 million units a year come 2030. Tesla has goals of 20 million cars in 2030, I think that is nuts, maybe in 2040, but 10 million in 2030 is very doable, will probably only take 8 million to hit #1 as VW and Toyota are losing market share to Tesla and the Chinese. Which should be terrifying to Toyota, because Auto factories running at anything less than say 75-80% capacity start to lose money. And once Tesla takes 30% of Toyota's volume, and Toyota isn't selling 10 million cars like they did in 2019 or 8 million cars like they did in 2022, and drop down to say 5 million cars in 2030, Toyota probably has to close half their factories and shutter half their models, just to survive.

How many auto makers have charge networks outside of Tesla? And I am not talking about Electrify America or EVgo or anything like that, that any car and use. Because I don't see Ford or VW branded charge stations that are owned and operated by the manufacturer.

You are in the Tesla network or out of business in 10 years I think. And good that they are building their own charge stations too that anyone can use.

$35,000 in 2018 dollars is $42,000 today, so the Model 3 price has gone up less than inflation from that original promised amount, and the original was like 210 miles range, they are near 300 now. But we are talking about a whole new model so the Model 3 has nothing to do it it. And Tesla hasn't said a price or when the next car is available, but they did state a goal to sell 4-5 Million of them per year. So the price has to be low to hit 5 million units per year.

Mary Barra herself has said they can't make profit on EV's under $40k until maybe 2030. And they are targeting like 400k EV's next year or in 2024 whatever it is. Tesla will be at 8 million EV by 2030 easily, that will be more than GM's combined ICE and EV sales. And GM might get the EV's right and be a player, they aren't the ones that risk extinction like some of the other brands. But the Bolt is getting discontinued a the end of the year. The $25-30k Tesla depends on the Mexico factory, which Tesla will say will opening 2024, but let's say it is 2025. So once that is open the low cost car comes out. And they said it is 40% less cost to procure than a Model 3/Y.

But GM's EV ramp up isn't as fast as what Tesla will ramp up in 2024-2027. Although GM is going faster with more product than some others. It is the ones like Subaru, Nissan, Mazda that I think are going to be screwed, and probably Honda since they just want to rebadge GM EV's which could lead to a supply problem for them. And the Cox article highlights how sales are coming back, probably will see a 15.4 million sales year this year, and if there is any interest rate cut next year, I don't see why it couldn't be back to 16-17 million in 2024. And Tesla's big advantage will be the $25-30,000 car. They will be able to turn profit on a sub $30,000 EV which it seems no one else can make profit on a $40,000 EV. So Tesla can really monopolize that sub $40,000 price point, which is a huge part of the market.

I don't see problems, I see sales going to the moon! After 2 quarters this year they are where they were after 3 quarters last year. And Q2 last year the Shanghai plant was in a covid shut down, if you toss that out, it is 14 consecutive quarters of growth. The demand for EV's is growing faster than I think many OEM's predicted. Tesla will pass by VW and Toyota in 2028-2029, those sales come at the expense of someone. So the question is who all Tesla's volume comes at the expense of. I don't own their stock, nor do I really intend to buy a Tesla. But the facts are the facts, the growth is unstoppable, the margins are 4 times better than what most car companies are at. And the legacy OEM's don't make money on EVS and none of them have scale on EV's outside of BYD. Which presents another problem for Ford, VW and GM who are getting clobbered in China because BYD and Tesla are on the rise.

Last year when Tesla did not have the tax rebate and Hyundai/Kia did, Tesla still outsold them and everyone else. Also the Model Y outsells the Rav4 in the USA, and the Rav4 is way cheaper, has the Toyota brand name, strong resale, low ownership cost, etc. The Rav4 was the crossover gold standard that Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia were never even close to outselling, Tesla came in and blew it way with ease. And the Tesla "Model 2" is going to sell 4-5 million units annually. That 1 model alone could outsell the whole Ford Motor Company. GM and Ford are trying, but I think they are going too slow. At least they are doing something though, most of the Japanese brands and Stellantis are asleep at the switch, Toyota hoping they can tap the cash reserve and play catch up, but time is running out on that. And the problem for legacy OEM isn't just scale, it is profitability, Tesla margins are nearly double Mercedes-Benz margins (best in class for legacy OEM). So how does Hyundai or Ford or GM, make a $40,000 EV with better margins than an Escalade or Navigator? They can't is the answer.

But the Tesla is the car people want, so they must not hate the styling or interior. The EV6 is smaller than a Sportage and costs double. Shocker that it doesn't sell.

And yet Q2 2023 was another sales record for Tesla. Ioniq 5 is flat for the year, Mach-E was down 36% YTD through May, EV6 was reported to be down 43% in June, it has been down all year. These guys don't have a chance. They can't get any volume, and they can't make any profit.

It isn’t just about no maintenance. The Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the world. The Mach-e, iD4, Ioniq 5 are not and aren’t even close. This is quickly becoming Apple vs Nokia, Blackberry, Ericsson, Motorola, etc.

I think the Tesla exterior style looks pretty good, their cars still look modern even after being around several years. It isn't lemmings buying them either, Tesla's beat the competition in range, performance, charging, charge network, autonomous tech, and price. That's why their EV's sell and the others don't.

Kind of like Tesla EV's compared to others. Much better design at Tesla. They can all switch the charger, but they can't switch their cars.

Tesla dominance continues.

We don't know a price range for these but Mercedes dominates the big sedan market, we've seen stuff like the Aston Martin Rapide and Jaguar XJ, Cadillac CT6 come and go. There aren't enough sedan buyers at the higher end, even at $75,000+ to really have new entrants come in. It isn't a growth segment. On the SUV side, you have Tesla Model X, electric G-wagon and EV Escalade will be out by 2026, although the Escalade would be a North American thing, not European, but Mercedes, Audi, BMW will have plenty of electric SUVs in Europe before Aehra arrives. Aehra really has to be able to beat the competition on price, which they won't be able to do because they won't have their scale. Lucid is already running out of money and they seemed a bit more fleshed out than this company is and Lucid hit the market when it wasn't as crowded with EV's, AEHRA is going to hit it when EV price wars are going on.

Maybach, Bentley, Rolls, will all have EV's, Porsche already does, Lamborghini and Ferrari will get there. Plenty for the 1% crowd to pick from, not sure they want an unknown brand, such as the Lucid Air that is a sales dud.

Hyundai is exploring it also. They will all jump on and Tesla will be the largest charge network in the world.

Tesla is going to need more chargers as everyone is coming on board. Rumor is Stellantis is next.

That's cool I guess, but can they put the volume knob back in? And the clicky wheel would be nice to have again, even if you have a touch screen, then you have 2 options like the prior cars had.

This is going no where.

They was watching a CarEdge YouTube video, they had the Cox Automotive Data for last month, ATP at JLR is $107,000 (probably since they killed off half the Jaguars and are just selling Range Rovers) and Mercedes was just over $82,000. Which makes sense the EQE and EQS are transacting over $80k and you have SL and G-wagon over $150k and the A-class is gone. Good on the CT4, but the C-class or 3-series easily outsells the CT5 and Cadillac has no E-class competitor, I guess the Celestiq could loosely be S-class competition. Lyriq’s competitor would be the EQE SUV since they are mid-size 2 row SUVs. Either more luxurious than a Tesla Y, but maybe they are more Model X competitors with less performance. Model Y isn’t the #2 selling SUV, it is the number 2 selling vehicle based on estimates. With the sales increases they are seeing it could beat the Silverado this year. It easily outsells the RAV4, best selling SUV competition is done and over. And GM or Hyundai won’t change that. And how would GM or Hyundai or anyone else change it? They lose money on EV’s so they can’t match Tesla’s price, they aren’t vertically integrated so they can’t match Tesla’s price. Their dealer network adds cost so they can’t match Tesla’s price.

Mercedes is probably comparing their EV’s to Tesla because Tesla is what people know. The EQB vs Model Y comparison is a horrible one for Mercedes, not sure why they would even make it. The EQB is another EV that needs a $5-10,000 price cut plus it isn’t eligible for the tax credit. Model Y all day long over the EQB. Mercedes doesn’t compete in the mainstream, their ATP in April was over $82,000. I don’t see many mainstream middle class buyers spending that. Sure Tesla competes over a wide price range now but the future is for them sub $30,000 for the next big growth. And the Tesla Model Y is the #2 selling vehicle in the US for the first 4 months of the year. Only the F150 outsells it now, and heck with Cybertruck taking pick up market share next year, Model Y could be #1 selling vehicle in the US in 2024, which seems pretty mainstream to me.

I get that the Model X and S are expensive luxury cars, but that isn't Tesla's focus or where they are going. Look at their sales for Q1 2.5% of their delivers are S/X and which are their German luxury brand competitor vehicles. Tesla had to start high priced with the early adopters, that is over, now they are going after mass market. The next Gen Tesla is going to be at least double the volume of Model Y, maybe 4X Model Y volume. Tesla's goal is 20 million units per year, that volume isn't coming at the expense of Mercedes or BMW, it is coming at the expense of Honda, Toyota, GM, VW, Ford, Stellantis, Hyundai and Renault/Nissan. The question is who loses 10-15% of their sales and who loses 50% and goes under.

Tesla was up 44% in Q1, but if you add April they are up 52% compared to January - April in 2022. Here is the Jalopnik article form last week, and take note Model Y up 99% in April. And Q1 is typically the worse sales quarter while Q4 is the best quarter, so for Tessa to increase over a record Q4 in 2022 to Q1 2023 is still strong. Also Tesla is not targeting the luxury market, Mercedes ATP up 22% in April compared to last year, Tesla down 13.6%. This is the chart that should terrify legacy auto, all of them are raising prices (and Mecedes and Land Rover customer base can afford it) while Tesla is lowering prices. And Tesla hasn't even put out their lower priced car yet which is going to hit companies like Toyota, Hyundai, Honda and GM the hardest.

The EQE sedan sold 1300 units in Q1 (more than the Ioniq 6 I might add) and the E-class sold 3000 down from 4,700 the year before. So obviously the EQE took some E-class volumes, the E-class is also in it’s 7th and final model year for this generation so it is expected that sales will trail off and people will wait for the new one in the fall. But at a time when people are craving EV’s and Tesla has 52% sales increase so far this year, the EQE isn’t doing any big numbers. Because as I said the E-class is a much better value. Drop the EQE price $7500 then it would have the same value as an E-class, just not look as good. Thankfully for Mercedes, Tesla isn’t coming for the luxury market, they are coming for the mainstream players. According to Cox Automotive, Mercedes ATP in May was up 22% from last year to $82,000. So I will be interested to see if they can maintain volume at that price level. Ford and Toytota prices are up about 10% this year, Tesla ATP is down 13% plus tax credits. As Tesla keeps lowering prices and these other bozos keep pricing consumers out, Tesla is going to take over.