smk4565

Tesla is going to need more chargers as everyone is coming on board. Rumor is Stellantis is next.

That's cool I guess, but can they put the volume knob back in? And the clicky wheel would be nice to have again, even if you have a touch screen, then you have 2 options like the prior cars had.

This is going no where.

They was watching a CarEdge YouTube video, they had the Cox Automotive Data for last month, ATP at JLR is $107,000 (probably since they killed off half the Jaguars and are just selling Range Rovers) and Mercedes was just over $82,000. Which makes sense the EQE and EQS are transacting over $80k and you have SL and G-wagon over $150k and the A-class is gone. Good on the CT4, but the C-class or 3-series easily outsells the CT5 and Cadillac has no E-class competitor, I guess the Celestiq could loosely be S-class competition. Lyriq’s competitor would be the EQE SUV since they are mid-size 2 row SUVs. Either more luxurious than a Tesla Y, but maybe they are more Model X competitors with less performance. Model Y isn’t the #2 selling SUV, it is the number 2 selling vehicle based on estimates. With the sales increases they are seeing it could beat the Silverado this year. It easily outsells the RAV4, best selling SUV competition is done and over. And GM or Hyundai won’t change that. And how would GM or Hyundai or anyone else change it? They lose money on EV’s so they can’t match Tesla’s price, they aren’t vertically integrated so they can’t match Tesla’s price. Their dealer network adds cost so they can’t match Tesla’s price.

Mercedes is probably comparing their EV’s to Tesla because Tesla is what people know. The EQB vs Model Y comparison is a horrible one for Mercedes, not sure why they would even make it. The EQB is another EV that needs a $5-10,000 price cut plus it isn’t eligible for the tax credit. Model Y all day long over the EQB. Mercedes doesn’t compete in the mainstream, their ATP in April was over $82,000. I don’t see many mainstream middle class buyers spending that. Sure Tesla competes over a wide price range now but the future is for them sub $30,000 for the next big growth. And the Tesla Model Y is the #2 selling vehicle in the US for the first 4 months of the year. Only the F150 outsells it now, and heck with Cybertruck taking pick up market share next year, Model Y could be #1 selling vehicle in the US in 2024, which seems pretty mainstream to me.

I get that the Model X and S are expensive luxury cars, but that isn't Tesla's focus or where they are going. Look at their sales for Q1 2.5% of their delivers are S/X and which are their German luxury brand competitor vehicles. Tesla had to start high priced with the early adopters, that is over, now they are going after mass market. The next Gen Tesla is going to be at least double the volume of Model Y, maybe 4X Model Y volume. Tesla's goal is 20 million units per year, that volume isn't coming at the expense of Mercedes or BMW, it is coming at the expense of Honda, Toyota, GM, VW, Ford, Stellantis, Hyundai and Renault/Nissan. The question is who loses 10-15% of their sales and who loses 50% and goes under.

Tesla was up 44% in Q1, but if you add April they are up 52% compared to January - April in 2022. Here is the Jalopnik article form last week, and take note Model Y up 99% in April. And Q1 is typically the worse sales quarter while Q4 is the best quarter, so for Tessa to increase over a record Q4 in 2022 to Q1 2023 is still strong. Also Tesla is not targeting the luxury market, Mercedes ATP up 22% in April compared to last year, Tesla down 13.6%. This is the chart that should terrify legacy auto, all of them are raising prices (and Mecedes and Land Rover customer base can afford it) while Tesla is lowering prices. And Tesla hasn't even put out their lower priced car yet which is going to hit companies like Toyota, Hyundai, Honda and GM the hardest.

The EQE sedan sold 1300 units in Q1 (more than the Ioniq 6 I might add) and the E-class sold 3000 down from 4,700 the year before. So obviously the EQE took some E-class volumes, the E-class is also in it’s 7th and final model year for this generation so it is expected that sales will trail off and people will wait for the new one in the fall. But at a time when people are craving EV’s and Tesla has 52% sales increase so far this year, the EQE isn’t doing any big numbers. Because as I said the E-class is a much better value. Drop the EQE price $7500 then it would have the same value as an E-class, just not look as good. Thankfully for Mercedes, Tesla isn’t coming for the luxury market, they are coming for the mainstream players. According to Cox Automotive, Mercedes ATP in May was up 22% from last year to $82,000. So I will be interested to see if they can maintain volume at that price level. Ford and Toytota prices are up about 10% this year, Tesla ATP is down 13% plus tax credits. As Tesla keeps lowering prices and these other bozos keep pricing consumers out, Tesla is going to take over.

That Mercedes is $7500 over priced too. I wonder if the $7500 lease deal is because they can get the federal EV credit on EV's they make in Alabama . But the EQE is easily $5-10k overpriced, depending on the trim level. Especially compared to the 2024 E-class that looks better, and has a better interior and is cheaper.

$5,000 cash back now on Ioniq 6, since they can't sell these things. Hyundai/Kia have had a great 10 year run and it could all crash and burn since they want to charge above Cadillac prices for Hyundais and no one is buying. I don't care if it is an an EV, the Ioniq 6 costs more than a Cadillac CT5 and that isn't a price range Hyundai buyers shop in.

Japanese brands are getting hammered in China. That is also a trend that won't stop as China might be all EV by 2030 and there are 100 car makers making TVs in China right now. So if Toyota and the others lose volume in China, they have to look to the US or Europe and Tesla and BYD are on the attack in Europe. If I were Toyota management, I wouldn't be worried about a 900 mile EV, I would be worried about how do I get the BZ4X price down to $30,000.

This sounds like a lot of blue sky concept, they don't any have any of this stuff built, or even a prototype, let alone explained how they would scale this out. I can believe 3.5 million BEV's in 2030, but that could also be 50-60% of Toyota's total sales volume and Toyota would thus be a smaller company than they are now. They might be selling 7 million cars a year in 2030 vs the 10 million a year they used to sell. The 900 mile battery also shows how clueless they are. Who needs a 900 mile battery? And they don't tell us what vehicle that would even go in. Sure put a 300 kWh batter that costs $45,000 into a car and your et 900 miles, but how is that sellable to consumers when the 900 mile EV Corolla is a $95,000 car? What they should be focusing on is a solid state battery 300 mile range Camry that is $25,000. They talk about 40% battery cost reduction and 20% range increase in a bZ4x by 2027, but that would just make the bZ4X comparable to that is on the market today. The bz4x is more expensive than a Tesla Model Y, with less range and is slower. Toyota has deep pockets, but they better empty them out if they don't want to shrink to 2/3 or half their size in 10 years.

They will drive 2.8 miles if Tesla is at 25 cents per kWh and the rest of them are at 50 cents. This is the same issue with the cars themselves. If Tesla wins on price, which they are right now, they are going to clobber everyone. The Tesla charger network will likely be superior and cheaper than whatever the other guys come up with. And sure people will use other charge networks but Tesla could have 50% and all the other guys could have 50%. Kind of like cell phone carriers, there are a lot out there but Verizon and AT&T have 65% of the market.

Correct me if I am wrong but it looks like they are going to be re-selling electricity and actually generating it. Tesla is using solar to generate electricity and will install mega pack batteries in the ground to store it so they aren’t going to be paying for electricity. They can undercut Shell or anyone else on price per kWh. we need more charge network but I feel like most gas stations are poorly run businesses that are only in business because people have to fuel their cars. Once they can fuel at home or from Tesla, people won’t go to Shell or Exxon stations.

NACS will become the standard in North America for sure. It might become the standard elsewhere in time, look how much sleeker and simpler the Tesla charger looks compared to CCS. Tesla might not only have 25% of US car sales in 10 years, they might have 50% of the EV charge network too.

A Camaro or Mustang start around $30,000 and the Mustang has had shrinking sales and the Camaro is being killed off since sales are drying up. A Hyundai Ionic 6 AWD is $49,000. A coupe with a lower value body will cost more, easily over $50k for a 320 hp coupe, thus about $20k more than a 320 hp Mustang, $12,500 more than a Mustang if they can build it in the USA with an American sourced battery which is a big IF. Lets look at Hyundai EV sales this year in Q1: The Ioniq 5 is basically down the same amount of Ioniq 6 sales, combined they are looking at about 36k units at this pace, lets say they get an end of the year boost and gets them to 40k units. For a small crossover and mid-size sedan, 2 of the most popular body styles in the market. Coupes sell at maybe 5% the volume small crossover sells, the Hyundai Pony Coupe would be about a 2-3,000 unit per year car in the USA, and that would probably be it's best market. Somewhat related note, Mustang Mach-E ales were down over 40% in May. These guys can't match Tesla, Hyundai and Ford are losing money on these cars and they are about $10k over priced of where they should be to get people to actually buy them. The losses would be staggering if they priced them where they need to be to get any volume.

100% they need to make a Bolt or Trailblazer EV sub $30,000 small crossover hatch type vehicle. And they have to build it in North America to get that tax credit so in effect it becomes a sub $22,500 car. And a 50-60 kWh battery is fine, that is enough rage for daily driving or a 3 hour trip. The key is having an EV for the masses that you can sell 1 million of, especially when you consider China, Europe or other markets that need cheaper or smaller cars than the USA. The Malibu name plate is kind of garbage right now, they need an EV sedan that is a Tesla Model 3 fighter, might was to resurrect another name for that, but again, if they can come out with a $37,000 sedan get the tax credit down to $29,500 then it is game on. Need scale and cost, that is how to win.

The problem is a 2 door car is low volume, thus it will be high priced to make up for being low volume, then less people will buy it. I doubt they sell these for $40,000, which is still a decent amount for a Hyundai coupe, but where it would need to be priced to get sales.

You are comparing a total upstart to a company that has been around over 100 years. It should not take GM 10 years to scale production. Perhaps they don’t want to sell more EVs because they lose money on them. The Detroit brand gave up on sedans because they couldn’t make money on them. They will give up on the Trax/Equinox, Escape, Compass etc when the small Tesla Crossover comes and makes them all irrelevant. Maybe the Ford and GM can survive just selling pickups and full size SUVs but they might be half their current size in 10 years.

Which would be a problem with GM product planning in the past 20 years. The filled the Saturn and Buick lineups with Opels and Chinese built crossovers, just because they were making them someone else, and needed product for American showrooms, even if they weren't the right product for the brand. Did the same thing with the Holden Pontiacs. Just keep rebadging mediocre product rather than building class leading product. I start to wonder if GM will be here in 10 years. I thought their move into EV's would be faster and they could at least somewhat compete with Tesla and beat out the Japanese makes. Now Mary says they won't make profit on EV's until 2030. Tesla will be so far ahead by then, it will be too late.

I assumed this was China only. China is toughing up emissions standards this year, and that is a cheap EV battleground there. This could be a short lived product as an ICE car might be a real hard sell in China in 5 years. And Cadillac needs to get their American line to EV in a hurry, because the ICE line is dying on the vine, time to scrap CT4, CT5, XT4, XT5, XT6 and start all over for their 4th or 5th brand overhaul in the past 25 years.

All GM vehicles (except pick ups) are uniside vehicles. A-pillar to D-pillar is one panel. Very few other cars are done like that, most are 2 or 3 piece.

"Selling out" at what production level? I doubt it is even one of VW's top 5 sellers.

I think this would sell quite well unless they price it at $60,000+ and then not enough people will be able to justify that much on a van.

Fun fact Ford discontinued beds for 2015-2021 F150s so if you need a bed replacement you have to buy a used one which is probably $10k because the salvage vendors know you can’t buy a new one. Ford does still sell the side panels. Cybertruck will have accessories, I think there is already a camper add on for it. The Silverado EV is basically unibody too, it isn’t body on frame it is more unibody on battery pack.