smk4565

The Silverado EV is said to weigh over 8,000 lbs. And I bet the Silverado is heavier than the Cybertruck because after seeing Munro and Associates tear apart the Hummer battery, that Ultium pack is not weight efficient at all. Tesla’s battery is more space and weight efficient than Ultium.

The Cybertruck has higher payload and towing than any gas or EV truck in the 1500 class. Also has a bigger bed than any EV truck. Sounds more capable than the rivals. I think Elon’s 250-500k units per year is accurate, especially globally. The Toyota Hilux is the #4 best selling vehicle in the world this year, outselling the F150. Lot of truck buyers out there.

It could be that Cybertruck buyers never had a pickup or wouldn't otherwise have bought a pickup, butI would guess a lot of the sales would come from other pickup buyers, whether it be full size trucks or even Tacoma and Ridgeline. We don't know the price of the Cybertruck yet either, but it will have that $7500 credit, so that could help it compete, plus no gas compared to the fuel cost of a 20 mpg pickup. And we don't quite know how FSD might be monetized, Tesla might be able to sell cars at zero margin if their income comes from FSD, software sales, electricity sales, etc. Lots of unknowns, but will be interesting how it plays out.

It doesn’t have to outsell them but even if they take 100k sales each from Ford, GM and Ram that will hurt their bottom lines. Because those companies live off pick up truck profits, Tesla doesn’t have to.

I wonder if the shift to EV will also shift what vehicles are most profitable to automakers. Right now pickups are super profitable, but if these big trucks and SUVs need a 200 kWh battery that costs $30,000 compared to a smaller crossover/sedan with a 67 kWh battery that is $10,000, that is a huge gap to overcome from a profit standpoint. Perhaps car makers and consumers will shift back to smaller vehicles to get range for less money. And it might be that an Equinox EV could have better profit margins than a Silverado EV.

I have wondered that about how these giga cast vehicles will be repaired. Rarely do shops replace quarter panels, and if an inner quarter panel is damaged on a car it is probably totaled anyway. The rear body panel would be interesting because when cars are rear ended semi-hard, it is pretty common to need a rear body panel and perhaps a trunk floor since that metal folds pretty easily. If the giga-cast cars can't get a floor or rear body put in and you have to replace the back half of the car then it's totaled. But EV's have pretty strong salvage value and would be totaled easier than an ICE car anyway. I'll tell you what is going to total a lot of car in the future is LED headlights and radar cruise sensors unless that costs comes way down. I wrote an estimate on a 2023 Hyundai Tucson about a month ago, it needed the headlights, DRL lights, bumper, grille, rad support, AC condenser, radiator and the radar sensor. Was over $12,000 to fix. When that car is 4 years old, if it hits a deer and breaks all 4 lights, bumper, grill and the radar, it is totaled for not even being that damaged. Had a Hyundai Elantra yesterday that hit a deer, this is $9k in damage using recycled and aftermarket parts, it was over $12,000 if using OEM parts, in which case it would have been totaled. Toyotas, Hondas and Subarus are cheap to fix, but all this other stuff they are making to be disposable anyway, especially if used car values drop back off and the parts prices stay sky high.

The updated Model 3 is coming soon, Model Y update probably next year. They look pretty ready to go with this. And part of the update is improving efficiency in manufacturing. Tesla is also going to 48 volt electric system which will save weight and cost in wiring harnesses. This car may actually get cheaper with more content added in. The next gen Model 2 or whatever it will be called, is only going to use 40% the factory space that a Model 3/Y takes to build, auto factory assembly lines are about 30% inefficient, the paint process is inefficient, etc. Since Tesla will gigacast and build the car in modules, rather than traditional assembly line, it sucks a ton of cost out, thus you get a sub $30,000 Tesla. And it goes back to the point I have been making. What will matter in the EV wars is cost and scale. No one else has Tesla's scale or vertical integration, and no one else has the cost controls. Others might get there, but it is a race to get there. The first 5 or 6 that get there will survive, the rest go bankrupt.

If the Cybertruck has more range, more acceleration, FSD, better handling, tighter turning radius, large bed, and all the stuff they promise, and deliver it at a price that is equal or less the competition then yes people will buy it. The Model Y outsells the Rav4 now, so much for Toyota loyalty, people fled for the better product. And that is a case when the Tesla costs a lot more money, imagine if it was dollar for dollar even. The full size truck market in the USA is about 2 million units, mid-size is probably another million. I read the global pickup market was about 4.8 million last year. Even if 10% of global truck market goes to Cybertruck then they hit 500,000. Now I don't know how many countries they will sell it in, but even if they just sell it in the USA and get 20% of the truck market, they can hit 500k units. Probably no one thought the #1 selling vehicle in Europe would be an American car, because people said Europeans will never buy a car form the USA. But Tesla proved that wrong.

There are 4 WT trims? So the trim line for the Silverado EV will be: 1WT 2WT 3WT 4WT 1LT 2LT 3LT 4LT High Country Trail Boss RST Holy complexity Batman!

Cybertruck has a frunk, storage space in the rear sail panels and a covered, lockable bed, which by the way is a foot longer than the Lightning’s bed. I think 500k units a year is doable, especially globally. Millions of pick ups are sold each year, there are plenty of potential buyers.

Ferrari sold 13,000 cars last year, and is worth more money than Stellantis, who used to own Ferrari. Tesla Model Y is the #1 selling car in Europe in 2023 gas or IV https://www.carscoops.com/2023/04/tesla-model-y-was-europes-best-selling-car-in-q1-2023/ Look at the chart The Dacia, T-Roc, Peugeot, Opel, Yaris, etc are all gas cars, there isn't even an EV in the top 25, besides something like Fiat 500 that is gas and EV. And Tesla is 16th for brands, but at that growth rate they will easily be top 10 next year and then when the Model 2 (or whatever it is called) comes out and that is probably 250,000 units per quarter in Europe, puts Tesla above VW on that list for #1 overall, not just #1 EV. VW group if you add Skoda, Audi, Bentley, etc together, that would be tough to beat in Europe, they may keep that crown. But VW is down 25% this year in China and that is their #2 market, so they are in some trouble there, they need Europe in a bad way.

Model Y is on pace to sell over 1 million units this year and surpass the Corolla as #1 selling vehicle in the world. GM sold 5.9 million units in 2022, GM is down in China 25% this year, but up in the USA, maybe they hit 6 million and Tesla will be about 2 million. So GM sells 3 times as many, but Tesla is closing fast, and the next Gen Tesla will sell 4 million units just form 1 model, so with that and Cybertruck Tesla passes GM, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Stellantis in volume by about 2027-28, and maybe they have got VW and Toyota by then, but I would estimate 2030. Tesla had revenue of 1.87 billion from selling carbon credits in 2022, that is basically pure profit, the company made $12.6 billion in total profit (GM made $9.9 billion). So about $10.8 Billion is not from carbon credits. Tesla's operating margin on auto last year was about 17%, highest there is in the auto industry, Mercedes is at 13%, GM's was 6.3%.

Lot of low volume trucks. 2 Hummer's sold in Q1. Also the Tesla Model Y has a better profit margin than a gas Escalade. How long before the Chevy Blazer EV has a better margin than the Escalade and sells over 1 million units a year? My guess is never. And that is what GM, Ford, Toyota, etc are up against. Making 20% margin on $50,000 electric cars when GM can't even make that on ICE SUVs that are $75-100,000. And no one can, Tesla beats Mercedes-Benz's operating margin, and Tesla hasn't even fully realized the profits from solar power, mega packs and charging non-Tesla owners to charge at Tesla stations.

The Cybertuck has a bigger bed, much higher payload and 40% higher tow rating than the Silverado EV or F150 Lightning. Cybertruck also has a smaller turning circle, better off road ability, (looks like better range and acceleration too) Full Self Driving (to whatever level Tesla is at come fall). Also the Tesla charge network. If Tesla beats the competition on price too, that is a big hit to the legacy OEM trucks. Elon estimated 250-500k units a year, I think that is very doable, and if they do 500k, that is probably Ram, Ford and GM taking a 100-150,000 unit loss each, which will definitely hurt the profits at those companies since that is where all the money comes from. I think GM will be okay, Nissan/Renault/Mitsubishi, Honda, Mazda, Subaru are the most in danger, Toyota could be in danger, but they do have a mega cash reserve. But China is basically done with ICE cars and you can get $12,000 EV's there, and Tesla has the #1 selling vehicle in China, so that battle is basically over. Tesla has the #1 selling vehicle in Europe and the Chinese are going to Europe, VW has enough market there, Stellantis is probably in trouble, Ferrari is worth more than all of Stellantis now, and probably because Ferrari will be here in 20 years and Stellantis won't be. Tesla could be 25-30% of global sales volume in 2035 with BYD and the other Chinese makers making up 25-30%. So that leaves legacy auto fighting for about half the current market they have, none of those companies can survive on 50% of their current volume because they have too much overhead, so about half will probably go bankrupt.

$79,800 is for the 450 mile WT and $74,800 for the 350 mile WT and those are fleet only pricing, not for retail. Retail customers only get the $100k RST this year. I don't think we will ever see a sub $45k Silverado EV. I don't see how they get a $74,000 retail truck down to $40k, even if you cut the battery down to 250 mile range, that is what, $10,000 worth? So the question is where will the Cybertruck price out? If Tesla beats Ford and GM on price, it is kind of game over for Ford and GM.

$80,000 is a lot for a work truck, but they may already have commercial fleet buyers lined up. Question is still how fast GM can scale these EV's up, analysts are predicting 76,000 this year which are mostly Bolts and about 328,000 next year. Although that probably puts them ahead of any of the Asian brands.

Maybe they can just dump the IQ in about 5 years when there is no gas Escalade. Should just call it Escalade and put an EV badge on the back instead of one of those dumb 600 badges they put on them now. Still not as bad as EV9 or iD9 or the likely Toyota bz8X which sounds way less cool than Land Cruiser.

Tires make all the difference.

It mostly isn't needed, if you live in the mountains of Vermont or Colorado, sure. But for probably 75% of the USA or more, you don't need AWD. And as we go to EV, it makes more sense for RWD than FWD because the engine isn't over the front axel so FWD becomes pointless and RWD works just fine. Which I am all about that, I drive a RWD car.

According to Caredge, Buick and Lincoln cost more to maintain. And the gold standard for long term maintenance cost is of course Tesla. Which is just one more reason the mass market brands are screwed, they can't beat Tesla in anything, when Tesla is fully scaled and priced against them, it is game over.

Yet Toyota wins in 6-10 year maintenance costs and if you factor in resale value, you will take an absolute bath buying a Lincoln or Buick vs a Toyota.

Probably will cost most than an A6 or E-class. And I feel like the people that can afford a $60,000 sedan are going to buy an Audi or Mercedes, not a VW. And the people that are EV or nothing will buy a Tesla.

Switching to ICE shouldn't be hurting their sales, they still make the Golf, Jetta, Tiguan, Atlas and they introduced the Taos. Killed the Passat but that was a sales dud anyway. Their sales dropped because their ICE cars aren't selling and their supply chain is no doubt jacked up because they rely on Eastern Europe and Ukraine for a lot of parts. But Tesla increased sales in the same time frame, they solved supply chain. Here are 2019 US sales on the left and 2022 sales on the right. Most of these brands are done, some like Honda and Ford have lost 500,000 units, Nissan has lost about half its volume, Buick and Dodge lost half their volume, VW is down about 1/3. BMW, Hyundai and Kia are up slightly, Tesla more than doubled. Mercedes down 10,000 units, but they are up in 2023, they should pass 2019 levels this year, which is pretty good considering Tesla hit the luxury market first and they survived. Once Tesla rolls out the lower priced cars and hits the mainstream these brands that are struggling now are going to be headed for bankruptcy. And VW is getting outsold by BMW, Mercedes and Lexus right now and that is with VW's cheap cars. The id4 is priced and sized like a GLB or Lexus NX, the iD7 will be priced higher than a Lexus ES. Who is going to buy these VW's with Lexus-level pricing when people aren't buying VW's at Toyota level pricing? JLR, Nissan, Mitsubishi (and Renault) are done, (Subaru and Mazda will be bought by Toyota). Honda, Stellantis and VW in 10 years will be half what they are now. None of them stand a chance against Tesla. Toyota has so much size and cash, I think they will put up a fight, and GM and Ford will put up a good fight in the USA, but won't have the global scale Tesla will have. Hyundai/Kia are a strong contender, although they don't make much profit per car, so if ICE sales drop and they aren't making profit on EV's they have no margin for error.

VW is on steady decline, I can easily see them at 6 million units per year in 2030. And Tesla will be around 8-10 million, BYD could get to 6.5 million and pass VW. Now if BYD can’t expand much out of Asia then VW could stay ahead of them, but I can still see Tesla, Hyundai and Toyota all in front of VW come 2030. Stallantis will probably drop from their current number so I think VW could still edge them out.

VW will never pass Tesla in EV sales and VW will not be the #2 car maker by volume in 2030, I suspect Tesla and BYD will have passed them by then and VW will be in a battle with Toyota and Hyundai group for the 3rd-5th spots. And VW couldn’t sell Passats at $30k or Arteons at $40k. But here they come with a rumored $50k+ sedan. You will be able to buy a Cadillac CT5 or Lexus ES for less money than this VW. Unless VW pulls a shocker and charges $39,990 for this thing.