balthazar

Clipping from a online story today. 1. very cool the driver staggered away (DUI) from the wreck at supposedly 100 MPH- car was destroyed. 2. Anything goes at 100 MPH impacts. Still I have to ponder- will insurance companies start figuring in extended property damage & HAZMAT clean-up costs into EV insurance policies? Looks like it hit in the rear door. Another few feet forward and the driver would've been vaporized.

To put the current electric vehicle market in the harsh light of reality... Tesla is pretty much unilaterally recognized as the #1 EV maker in the world. They are, in fact, WRT volume; Tesla sold a record 367,000 vehicles globally in 2019 (BYD was #2 at 225K units). Some gov't entities (and rabid EV fans) are hoping to see 100% EV products by 2030, or even 2025. Worldwide vehicle production in 2019 was... 65,500,000. That's sixty-five million units. Which means Tesla's global marketshare in 2019 is 0.0056%. 2019 U.S. BEV sales were 242,846. 2019 U.S. total vehicle sales were 16.78 million. Which means U.S. BEV marketshare was 1.44%, down from the peak in 2018. How any rational person thinks a 20-yr segment sitting at 1.4% is going to go to 100% in 9 years is beyond explanation. Anyone in Gov't pushing such a mandate needs to have a metal competency evaluation.

That IS interesting. So the actual annual maintenance & repair costs were HIGHER on the Tesla, not "much lower' as some have breezily assured. Ignoring the value of 'freebie' equipment mods on the Tesla, and that in my area for example, fuel is 33% cheaper today, the total cost of the Tesla unit is $109,153, vs. $85,548 for the Ford. I don't know about you, but I know which way I've vote my tax dollars to go. $23,000 buys 11,200 gals of gas in NJ.

Beetles, to me, are like paper coffee cups; throw-aways after 1 use.

^ There's a 10-outlet location across the highway from me... but Tesla's only. There's 2 outlets at my municipal building about 2 miles from me... but for municipal vehicles only (I've never seen an EV municipal vehicle in their fleet). There's 2 outlets at a nissan dealer about 2 miles from me, but you have to call ahead to use. There's 2 outlets at a school about 4 miles from me, that's 24/7 available. A LONG way to go to be comparable right here. Meanwhile, I have like 20 pumps at a Costco, 16 pumps at a Raceway, like 10 pumps at a Fuel One, like 20 pumps at a Speedway prolly 12 pumps at a BP, a Valero, a WAWA.... I'm sure others, all within a 2 miles.

Since I brought up old Beetles elsewhere, here's a nicely-presented / great patina'd '59 bug with the rare retractable canvas 'sunroof' and some mechanical upgrades. Has 29 hrs left on ebay, but it's 'only' been bid to $13K so far. Would anyone take a rare bug 'worth' -say- $15K, then put $65K into it (EVWest EV conversion cost)... and what would it be worth then? $65K? $50K? $25K... or $5K? - - - - -

I understand your points. But a random '70s Beetle goes for like $5-7 grand. Does putting $50K into a $5K car make it worth ANYWHERE near that $55K? Yes; most Buick folk like them original. For the first bunch of years I owned my car, it's #1 value was stagnant at $7500 (not that it was flirting with #1 status at all, nor would I aim to take it there). I wrestled with going with a custom build, but that stagnancy gave me the 'go-ahead'. But today in #1 (original!) shape it's a $30K car. And I'm not putting $50K JUST under to hood of it. In fact, I'm not putting $50K into the entirety of it, and I only paid $500 for it as a running/driving car. My point here is a financial-sensibility one. I never understood folk who spend $125K to build a custom show rod, then put it up for sale/struggle to get $75K for it a year later. Just open the window and thru your money into the flower bed. I stand to 'get out' (were I ever to sell it) in the ballpark of what I put into it. A '75 Beetle with a $50K EV conversion can't be worth even $20K. Why would it- the rest of the car is still a shitbox. Yeah; I know the early vans are worth a lot- I wonder if EV'ing those would actually decrease their value. I don't follow their values to comment with any authority there... but USUALLY high dollar collectibles drop when customized. If you have money to burn & just don't care, coat your Vega in diamond dust. But if you hope not to lose your shirt building a car project, tread very lightly dumping $50K into a beater (OR a high dollar collectible)! Do your research... except I don't believe the collector market has yet spoken on EV-converted collectible values yet.

^ It'd make an interesting project for a crate 6.2L retro-fit.

Do you have any idea how many class action lawsuits there have been RE automatic transmissions? You point doesn't apply.

That's BA-AAAAADDD news for expensive EV vehicles!

David lives in an adjacent HoloDeck to RobertHall, where he dresses like George Jetson and has a robot maid.

I think it was a GM investor meeting. Somewhere roamin’ the ‘web.

whoosh. - - - - -

The question remains if GM's 25 or 30 "new" EV models will be in addition to or replacing, existing models. The half-handful that have been shown were additions. The Mach-E didn't replace any Mustang, so with Ford dedicated long-term to the Mustang, the Mach-E automatic has no bearing on the manual in the Mustang.

Just saying- it’s all fun & games looking at million dollar plus homes online, but you can’t force everyone to buy one. And putting $100/SF granite countertops in a $50K apartment likewise, makes no sense (on a grand scale or individual). I think it’s fine for an individual to do what he wants automotively, but the ‘Jehovah’s Witness door-to-door hard sell’ that this is for everyone is fantasy.

October 2020 EV West conversion cost: $50,000. I wonder how many folk will ultimately be willing to put 50 grand into a 5 grand car. And we thought putting 2 grand of rims on a 2 grand car was nuts.

a telling 2020 snapshot : My auto insurer is privately owned, and gives policy holders a dividend check every year. Normally it's around $125, but this year's check was $354. A LOT less driving / accidents in 2020...

That's not 'leading'. I watched the Kandi video - that's called 'dumping'.

OEMs certainly can bring out all sorts of electric vehicles... but you can't FORCE a consumer to buy them; that has to come organically. They are the newbie that has to compete for the consumer's wallet by being competitive to the established market. Perhaps one day it will be a sweeping tide, and I expect it to increase substantially over time... but there's no way you can mandate it by decree in 9 years. All realistic future projections have to be based largely on present & past plots.

^ Re-read the article; the Silverado wasn't anywhere near $60K. The problem most reviewers AND consumers have that only take a passing glance at trucks is; they're not REMOTELY set-up like a sedan is. The variations of trims, body configurations, powertrains & options is staggering in comparison. When the Ram came out, it seemed the press fleet was only stocked with Limited models, because the Ram Tradesman interior is also full of black hard plastics / no luxury. This article tested a Silverado Custom, the lower tier of trims. Go all the way up to a High Country and then you'll be around $60K. I for one don't want 'luxury' leather-wrapped dashboards with hand-stitched stitches. Like a fake hood scoop, it has no purpose AND it's not as durable as a hard surface. That's why the Silverado comes in like EIGHT trims, so anyone can find one that suits them / their budget. What a concept. So to try and paint the entire line by looking at one trim is like painting an entire brand by looking at one model.

If a product is competitive within it's segment still, it actually doesn't. IMO; one of the most annoying things about tech IS the rapid pace of change. It's completely a form of planned obsolescence, IE; "your $800 phone is, like, so last year", meanwhile every next generation seems to see smaller and smaller increments of change. Most of the specs on an iphone 11 vs. 12 are identical.

Did a private party own the test Avalanche?

Here’s a great example; Look at LED taillights. Inspired by dump trucks and school buses, LED tails were heralded as illuminating quicker (“saving lives”), burning less fuel (however microscopically less), and the actual per vehicle cost increase was pennies. But there are still incandescent bulbs in new vehicle tails. Know when the first production LED tails came out? 1993.

Price. I went off model years- we’re into the ‘21’s already. Let’s call it 9 years. Either way, it’s impossible. Instead of arbitrarily pegging a near-future year, why not simply focus on the products/manufacturers and state programs. They set themselves up for failure; many of the announced ev vehicles aren’t coming out until ‘22 or ‘23, IF they hit that mark. Look at Trsla’s track record of announcement vs actual on-sale dates. If one doesn’t ignore the futurists and focus on the actual numbers, they’re not being serious.

2030- 8.5 years from now??? They’ve already reduced their own credibility to zero. Unless you approach a monumental consumer-related shift with realism of the situation, you already failed. The major accomplishment this entity will achieve is to start a revenue stream.