smk4565

I watched FSD v. 12 live and it worked except for 1 intervention. And v12 is in a testing phase, it isn't on sale, so no one is test dummy for that. v12 looks like the real deal to at least a use anywhere level 3 system since it doesn't need mapped roads. And the robo-taxi they are working on would have to be level 5, and that seems to be on the horizon for 2025-26. FSD v.11 that they currently have is in no way worth the $12,000 cost since it is level 2, a lot of cars have level 2 systems for way less money.

I watched about a half hour of Elon being driven by the car, he had to intervene 1 time during the part I watched, and it was all neighborhoods and regular traffic, none of it was on a divided highway. Yes it is experimental still, but it seems pretty close. I think Tesla gets to level 4 before Mercedes does and Tesla is going to be offering this on mainstream cars, compared to Mercedes who is doing this higher up in the luxury market.

The current FSD version 11 is level 2 and that runs on lines of code like these other systems. FSD version 12 that Elon did his livestream in the car, runs off AI and the supercomputer interpreting what the cameras see. Thus you can drop a car anywhere on an unmapped road and set a destination and the car can still drive to it. And it is hands free, vision free, driver doesn’t have to do anything. That is where Tesla leapfrogs Mercedes because FSD v12 looks like a Level 4 system and that could be out before Mercedes gets level 3 under 40 mph nationwide.

Additional food for thought, the Cadillac Lyric which has the same length and width as the EV9 (though EV9 is taller), starts at $62,000 for the AWD trim and a Luxury 3 AWD is $72,000. These are 500 hp and over 300 miles range, and come with a $7500 tax credit. The Kia is priced higher than a Cadillac even before the $7500 credit. I don't see the great value here in paying $7500 more than a Cadillac for a Kia. And biggest miss ever that the Lyric wasn't a 3-row at that size, that's actually the only reason to buy the Kia over the Cadillac.

They are very close in size, which doesn't seem to make sense, when you can just offer 1 vehicle with multiple power levels and battery pack sizes. And the Lyric is nearly as big as some 3 row SUVs but it is only a 2 row. And the Buick and GMC versions aren't even here yet, it seems like GM wants to have 6 or 7 mid-size electric SUVs all trampling on top of each other, just like the good ole days of 5 W-body sedans that are all the same with a different grille.

Not sure why anyone would want to license level 2 tech. And that is just lines of code, easily copied, and Mercedes already has level 3. Tesla is going to run off AI, having the link to the AI supercomputer is where the money will be at. Much like the money in Google, Apple, and Microsoft is in the software. And maybe Tesla won't license it to anyone, which gives Tesla a huge advantage vs others.

And how much will Tesla make off charging stations that millions of cars in the future will use? What if Tesla licenses FSD to other car companies for $12,000 per car? If they sell just 1 million FSD software packages, which is virtually all profit, to Toyota or Ford that is $12 billion in profit for Tesla. The money isn’t really in the cars, it is in the software and services. That is why Tesla is with 10-20 times more than these other car companies that are loaded with legacy costs and aren’t growing. Many car companies revenues now are worse now than they were in 2013 if you adjust for inflation.

The Equinox EV is 9 inches longer than an iD4, 4 inches longer than a Tiguan, 7 inches longer than a gas Equinox. Not sure why it is so big, but the Equinox EV is actually larger then a Toyota Venza or Ford Edge, so I’d call it a mid-size SUV. Which makes me think Chevy over sized these EV’s and Equinox and Blazer are too close.

VinFast is all speculation, but Tesla has $23 billion cash on hand, about 1/3 what VW or Toyota have but Tesla is smaller and with less debt. Tesla has a ton of growth potential, Toyota and VW have already had their peak sales years and probably neither one will get back to 10 million units a year. And most car companies have hit their volume peak, so only way to grow sales is raise prices but eventually you run out of room to do that.

I think the $30k Equinox never happens, but I think they can undercut the iD4, BZ4X and the Ioniq 5 in price.

Hyundai/Kia make about $800 profit per car. They are one of the worst car companies in the world in profit margin. Yes they make some good vehicles and are ahead of the Japanese on EV’s. But there is a Hyundai dealer near me with several Ioniq 5/6’s on the lot with sticker prices of $58,000 that are just rotting there, I think between OEM and dealer discounts they have about $10k off sticker, but that is the only way to even try to sell those. No one wants a $58,000 Hyundai midsize sedan. When the $35,000 msrp Ioniq 6 arrives then game on, but GM is going to have a sub $40,000 Equinox EV that is larger than the Ioniq 5 and gets $7500 off. I think buyers will take the Equinox at $32,500 after rebate vs $50,000 Ioniq 5.

I know the Bolt is coming back, I was only questioning whether it will be under $30k when it comes back. And I doubt the Equinox comes in at $30k, Mary Bara is the one that said they can't make a profit on an EV that costs under $40,000. I agree scale will help GM, assuming, they can scale all that up, the Ultium ramp up has been pretty slow, and the Ultium platform's battery tech is behind what Tesla already has and it's heavy. And GM isn't alone in that, Ford and Mercedes EVs are too heavy also. Mercedes EQE 500 is 5,670 lbs, Cadillac Lyric AWD is 5,810 lbs, and the larger Tesla Model X is 5,185 lbs. The Lyric needs about a 600 lb weight loss, and that is in the Ultium platform. GM/Honda will probably have the scale to drill some cost out, but I don't see how Nissan does, or a small company like Mazda that doesn't even have an EV (since they killed off that compliance car they had) gets there. And I don't see how Hyundai/Kia get people to spend $50-75k on EV's when their ICE cars are more like $25-40k. They aren't even targeting their existing customers. Tesla makes more dollars of profit than GM or Ford, let alone they have the best margins out there, plus Tesla is just as much a software and energy company as they are a car company. Tesla already has mostly every other car company buying software off them for the chargers and using their charge network, won't be long before Tesla is selling Full Self Driving to other car companies at $12,000 per car and they'll have to pay Tesla for it just like they had to pay Tesla for their charge network.

Yes they all need a $30,000 EV but once the Bolt is killed off I don’t see who is going to make one outside of Tesla. The Kia Niro EV is $40,000, the Hyundai Kona EV is $35,000 and these are entry level compacts. Doesn’t really seem like a good deal and no $7500 credit for them. GM might come back with Bolt 2.0 at $30k but GM loses money on the Bolt, just like all these car companies outside of Tesla lose money on EV’s so I think the chances of affordable EV’s aren’t great. And it seems like car companies want to kill the sub $30,000 ICE cars too. And yes Elon has mad mistakes and wastes time with Twitter but at the same time his company is worth $800 billion and the other big car companies are worth about $50 billion so he must have done something right. And back to Tesla the refresh Model 3 is on sale in China and Europe now, so we should have it next year with a Model Y refresh right after. S and X do need a next generation and I would make them more mass market, 3 row SUV is a huge segment, but 1,000 hp 3 row SUV for $100k is not a big segment. Tesla wants to sell 20 million cars a year, they have to attack the sub $40,000 price tier to get there. There aren’t enough $50-100k price buyers to get that kind of volume.

What Tesla really needs is the sub $30,000 car. Because most car companies are bailing on low end cars, Toyota's North American President even said he wanted to push the average transaction price of a Toyota over $50k. Which to me sounds like throwing away half their customer base. Ford wants to get rid of the Escape to focus on high margin vehicles, because after they cut cars, they now need to cut crossovers. Mazda wants to move up market and focus on $50,000 CX-90 SUVS. The door is wide open for someone, aka Tesla to come in with a mass market car at an affordable price.

Tesla needs the Cybertruck to ramp up production because pickups are such a huge segment so are off road vehicles. And 3 row SUV is a huge segment, as Tesla goes mainstream they need a 3 row SUV that isn’t $80-90,000 which means either coming up with a new models or you take the S/X which in base model trim have 670 horsepower, and make less powerful, lower range versions, maybe single motor versions that get the price of those to like $59,000. A base Model X has more horsepower than a BMW M5, you don’t really need that much to take kids to soccer practice and go to the grocery store. The telling sign on that chart is Honda isn’t even on the board and Toyota at .5%. Long way to go. I think as EV prices keep dropping, $7500 credit at time of purchase and the public charging network will probably double in size by 2025, the flood gates open on EV sales in 2025-26. Those that are ready will win, those that aren’t will lose and some of these companies will be gone in 2030.

Maybe not revolution because supply won't be there until 2025-26 probably, but I think EV sales could double easily next year. You take $7500 off at the time of sales and that EV price looks really attractive. Plus that is $7500 less to finance (or $4k on a used car) at a 10% interest rate over 6 years or whatever the standard car loans are now. The interest savings on say a $32,500 loan vs a $40,000 loan, plus the gas savings that an EV has, makes it really compelling. I know my next car will be EV.

Tesla has won. Any car company that doesn't switch to NACS might as well close up shop and go out of business.

My Mercedes does it too, although I don’t use the feature. The Cadillac Seville STS had entry/exit mode that would move the steering column and seat up and back respectively on the 1998 model I think, I know that body style had it. Right, I remember the early 2000s Cadillac STS had it, at least I am 99% sure it did, it’s been a while since I was in once of those.

The EQB is over priced also, but it is a Mercedes-Benz, not a Kia. Kia EV6 sales are down 21% YTD through August. 12,714 units sold YTD. This was their answer to the Model Y, it's dying on the vine already in its 2nd year on the market, while the Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the world.

Yeah, hard to get excited about a 223 mile range, which could mean under 200 in harsh climates and 215 hp in a 5,000+ lb SUV at that price. I get that not even one needs 300 or 400 hp, or a 400 mile range. But if they want $56k with destination for the bare bones model, the 300 mile range, AWD model is probably $66k, add options to $70k. This car is $10k too expensive, which can be said about every EV that isn’t a Tesla. These guys have to figure out how to cut cost. I bet they could trim $1,000 off in body cladding alone.

They need to do something, I feel like Nissan has basically been dead in the water since Carlos Ghosn screwed them over. Problem is the Ariya seems allergic to sales, despite them advertising for it all the time. Right idea to go all EV in a hurry, but I am skeptical that they actually build EV's that people want.

They need to price it like that, but let's see if they do. I pulled pricing from a local Kia dealer, they have 4 EV6. So it seems Kia is just building loaded models, and then dealers have to give $10k off to get these things to move, because even at $49,100, a Tesla Model Y (with tax credits too) is a much better deal. Even the new Niro EV starts over $40k, that is more than a Cadillac CT4, CT5 or XT4 and almost as much as an XT5. I don't know this Kia strategy of pricing cars into the luxury market is going to work. Kia/Hyundai gained all this traction in the market because they gave great value, a stylish vehicle, a ton of equipment and it costs less than a Chevy, Toyota, Honda or Ford, plus has a longer warranty than any of them. But their EV's aren't value at all, so the brand identity looks like it could be lost in this transition. That EV6 is smaller than an Equinox EV that is supposed to be $30k, which it probably won't be but even at $40k, the Equinox EV is $20k under the EV6 for a bigger car.

I don't like this trend of gloss black cladding that this has, the Toyota Crown has and others have done, I think the Nissan Ariya does it too. Looks tacky and like they are trying too hard. Outside of that, I think she look and shape of this looks pretty good, and it looks very roomy in side so that should be a big benefit. Question really is what are they going to charge for this. The Telluride is so popular because you can get a fully loaded one for like $53k, and a comparable Jeep Grand Cherokee or Grand Highlander are over $60k so Kia really wins on price. If these are like $80,000, I don't know who wants to spend that on a Kia.

I don't think anyone is cross shopping GMC with Porsche or Lamborghini, but in terms of straight line speed everything can be fast and basically take away the advantage that the V12 expensive cars used to have over smaller cars that could only fit a turbo 4 or maybe a V6 into. The Hyundai Ionic 5 N has 641 hp, so the EV age means you can get small crossovers with supercar horsepower. GMC could put out a Terrain EV with 600 hp and people would say why doesn't it have 650 to beat the Hyundai, which is stupid since all these numbers are stupid, but that is where we are at. If the horsepower wars continue into EV's you'll see a Malibu or Equinox with 1,000 hp some day, which doesn't really make sense. So I hope every manufacturer does a few select crazy horsepower EV's but more importantly is who can build the affordable EV's that people will actually buy. That Ioniq 5 N is probably a $70-75,000 car, and how many people really want a $75,000 hatchback? 90% of buyers are going to look for who can give decent range with 225 hp at a $30-35,000 price point.

EV will allow them to do this. Where as you can't fit a supercharged V8 into a GMC Terrain, you can put 2 electric motors making 500 hp in there. You can put 500 hp in a Trax or a Bolt and have an EV that is like $30k after tax credits that can beat a $150,000 Corvette Z06 in a drag race. EV lets you make anything fast, which will also make the performance cars of yesterday look bad. CAFE is basically the reason small trucks are dead, the Maverick only meets CAFE because it is a hybrid. But in EV land, GM can bring back a small truck like a Maverick, have a 200 hp version, a 400 hp dual motor, an 800 hp quad motor if they want to.