smk4565

I don't think there is any negative to the Inline 6 other than they are too long/wide if you try to put it in a front wheel drive car. And most car makers the past 40 years wanted to build mediocre front wheel drive cars. Unless you have a V12, nothing is going to beat inline 6 smoothness. Although shortly none of this will matter, the electric powertrain being superior to all these ICE powertrains. And Mazda is too late, an inline six 5-10 years ago maybe would have been a good idea instead of turbo 4's or to replace the Ford sourced V6s from back in the day, but they should have put that money into batteries and electric motors. Mazda probably won't be here in 10 years.

No, Mazda gives you a turbo inline six now in this class, and rear wheel drive. Far superior drivetrain.

So back to the old days of Traverse, Acadia and Enclave being the same size. Kind of creates a size gap between the Terrain and Acadia although at the same time I don't know if you really need a Blazer size SUV, or a Venza, or Passport. People either get that small SUV or go for a 3 row vehicle.

I am sure they make more than $50 per Corolla, but I was just using that as an example. Heck they might even lose money on the Century at $179k, but I assume they wouldn't sell it if they lost money on it. I get that people in Japan, or the Japanese government want a Japanese car, and that is why this exists. My point is no one outside of Japan wants a $179,000 Toyota SUV.

I find it hard to believe the make a lot of profit on anything they are selling 30-50 units a month of. Maybe on an individual car they can make $10,000 with that high price, but on 30 units, that isn't as good as selling 100,000 Corollas and making $50 profit on each one. And no one outside Japan would buy this, because they aren't buying a Toyota over a Bentley or Mercedes-Maybach or a Rolls or anything like that. Lexus has been around 30 years and never been able to really get above $100k price with the exception of the LF-A and if you option up an LC or LK, yes you can get them over $100k, but Lexus isn't out there with cars costing $200,000+ because even they couldn't sell them.

The LX has traditionally been in the 4-5k units per year in the USA, where as the GLS and Escalade are usually more like 20-30,000 and 40,000 recently for Escalade. And the GLS has 11,204 first half of of this year, but they also have 5,500 EQS SUV, so if you put them together they are at 16,700 first half of this year compared to 4500 over at Lexus. And the Century isn't a Tundra platform and engine, it is a Grand Highlander chassis and engine for $179,000. It would be like Chevrolet selling a $179,000 Traverse turbo 4-cylinder hybrid.

Have to imagine that in a few weeks we'll hear about Marriot hotels doing the same thing. Tesla is going to run the biggest "gas station" network in the country, and they are doing it on other people's real estate compared to the high priced real estate that gas stations pay for.

Couple ways to look at this, I did just read a news story about how Chinese imports to the USA are down to 15 or 16% of all imports which is the lowest it has been in 30 years or something, I forget the exact numbers, but point is, people are moving away from made in China and companies are moving away from manufacturing in China with the government doing whatever they are doing to manipulate things, covid shut downs, long shipping times, it makes the supply chain unreliable. And Mexico and Vietnam are actually the biggest gainers and are sending more goods to the US. So if Buick sales are declining in China, and people in the USA don't want Chinese built Buicks, then I can see reason to dump the brand. GM could easily rebadge the Envista and Encore GX into GMC's that are smaller/cheaper than the Terrain or the Envista could be the new Chevy Monte Carlo Crossover coupe. They can merge those models into Chevy and GMC easily and not lose much overall volume. If they are selling in China and it is profitable to have Buick in the USA then I would keep them around another 10 years and then maybe Buick will have runs its course. Final point, is the EV disruption. First off is Tesla is going to put maybe half the car brands available now out of business, between the EV side and self driving side, and they are pretty close to solving self driving, then you need less cars on the road, more fleet/robotaxi comes in to play. Some of these other companies are way behind. So in a fierce market like that, GM has to pump as many resources as possible into Chevy/Cadillac. The other aspect of the EV revolution is no longer do you need to buy the V8 luxury car to get refinement, power, good NVH, strong acceleration etc. in the ICE age, you had to buy the Cadillac DTS, Lexus LS, etc if you wanted the V8, because they couldn't fit a V8 into a Cadillac ATS or a Lexus ES or the smaller cars. You had to buy a V8 Mustang or Corvette if you want fast car, which were smaller cars but with big hoods, small interior. But with an EV you can put 500 hp into a Honda Civic size car and have the smoothness and NVH refinement of a Rolls-Royce and the acceleration of a sports car and for not a lot of money. So no longer is the Cadillac the faster, quieter, more refined car than a Buick which is better than a Chevy, it all becomes the same. The Equinox EV could be more quite, better NVH, and faster acceleration than a V8 Escalade and do it at 1/3 the price. So what is the point of Buick? The only differentiator on cars becomes the exterior style (which won't vary a ton since they will optimize for wind tunnel) and the interior materials.

They used to sell 1 million Buicks in China. In 2022 it was 677,000 down 18% and this year they are down 16% and sold 242,000 in the first half of the year, assume the second half is stronger and they hit 500k. Which GM in general has been down in China due to the all the new EV's and the price warfare over there. And Tesla has sold 624,000 units in China through August, they has 84,000 in August, if they hit 80,000 each month the rest of the year they are at 1 million units in China, and they don't even have the low cost car yet that can probably sell triple what the more expensive Model 3/Y are selling. If Buick can be a player in China, it probably makes sense to keep them, but they could be in trouble over there, and if that is the case, they are useless as a brand to GM.

The Lexus LX doesn't do that great here and this is double the money.

$170k for a FWD platform with a hybrid V6. What a ripoff, at least the old Century Sedan had a V12 and it was something special for the time. Probably should have made this EV since they are only making 3-400 a year and an EV powertrain would make it seem more futuristic, and smoother and quieter which you want from a chauffeur driving car. I guess the Japanese government and some CEOs will buy it regardless just to be seen in a Japanese car, and not a Mercedes, Bentley or Rolls.

VinFast is for sure a sham, but there is money flowing in there, when no one wants to put money in Ford or GM except the government it seems. And Mercedes should kill off every ICE car at the end of their life cycle, now the E-class is new for 2024 so that will run to 2030, no reason to make anything ICE after that with maybe the exception of a CLA/GLA/GLB that is small 4 cylinder hybrid for markets that aren't EV heavy yet. Cadillac can easily kill all their ICE cars at the end of their cycle, that is probably still 2-5 years depending on which model it is, and GM has other ICE powered cars. I am not saying kill ICE sales now, I am saying stop spending money on ICE car development now. There is no point in dumping money into a dying technology to just be farther behind in 5 years time.

VinFast is the 3rd most value car company in the world. I think that is nuts and stockholder speculation although there are very few publicly traded shares. But the value is there because it is EV, ICE vehicle revenue is worthless to an investor. Mercedes slots below them because they have 5 EV's on market now and something like 14% of global Mercedes sales are EV and it is quickly rising. Mercedes also is making over $11,000 per car profit first half of 2023 when BMW and Tesla are around $5-6,000 per car and are the next best. Profit margin and EV has them up there. Volkswagen has size and and EV push going that has them as 5th most valuable, but their EV's aren't any good, the Taycan Turbo S for $200k gets smoked by the newly prices $89,900 Model S Plaid. If the Bentley-Lamborghini-Porsche money printing machine ever stops they could be in some trouble. Back to the Escalade though, I think GM should kill the ICE Escalade and every other ICE Cadillac at the end of their current life cycles. Time to sink or swim going all EV with that brand.

GM at its height wasn’t nearly as dangerous to competitors as Tesla is now. Because GM didn’t also own the gas stations, own the taxi companies, own energy storage and production, own data and AI, etc. Tesla can make billions on charging, solar, robo-taxi, Tesla Bot, and AI. Tesla also doesn’t have to worry about the dealers in the middle taking profit or putting dealer markups on cars or offering poor service to customers. Most of these other EV’s aren’t competitive that is why a ton came on market and Tesla still is rising in sales and still has over 60% market share. I think 30% of the global car volume is very doable because no one else is going to make a car that does everything the Tesla does with the charge network Tesla has. New Model 3 just debuted, Mode Y next year. The Model S/X are dated but they just dropped the price. The 670 hp awd Model S has the same price as the 288 hp rear wheel drive EQE350 as one example. The Mach-E is a sales dud compared to Tesla Model Y. Legacy OEM better seriously step their game up if they want to be here in 10 years. Think of this, the top 5 most valuable car companies in the world are: 1. Tesla 2. Toyota 3. VinFast 4. Mercedes-Benz 5. Volkswagen The ones down lower need to step their game up because I think half of the rest go under and half survive.

Tesla wants to sell 20 million car per year, which would be 25-30% of the global market. They can't do that with 4 models, or with the 4 they have and the Cybertruck and a low volume roadster. They have to have a volume car that can be sold in Europe, South America, China, Southeast Asia etc that are shopping in that price point. And they are doing new Model 3 and Y also because they need that volume to keep increasing. Tesla for the first half of 2023 has generated more net profit than GM or Ford, they have the money to expand.

GM can't make a profit on a $100,000 EV, will be a while before they can make a profit on a $20,000 EV. The Model Y outsells any vehicle GM has worldwide, and every GM vehicle except the Silverado in the USA. And the Model Y is closing that gap, the Cybertruck will sell as fast as they can make them for years, 1.8 million reservations and they probably won't hit a 375,000 a year run rate until 2025 maybe even 2026.

Put a $7500 tax credit on these and you are under $30k for a Tesla Model 3. In 2018 they talked about a $35k Tesla, and look at what Inflation has done since then. The future Model 2 is said to be 40% lower manufacturing cost than a Model 3. They can easily get an MSRP under $30,000 before the tax credit. Mexico and India aren't going to make Model 3 or Y, they are making a class below that.

Chevrolet won’t sell 1 million Bolt EV’s per year through and Tesla will sell 4-5 million Model 2 globally, probably 1 million in just the USA. And Model 3 Highland is supposed to have a price cut but who knows if that is true. The Bolt at least keeps GM in the game where as I think several car companies could be bankrupt in 10 years.

I do believe in it, it will look like a mini Model Y. I think they could have a $25k base price, but paint wheels, interior upgrade and stuff will be add ons, plus destination charge and really it will be a $30k car to buy it, but then $7500 credit so back to $22,500. Then add the $15k if you want full self driving, maybe that drop that to $10k by then. But they'll get there, they want to sell 20 million cars a year, they need to sell at least 5 million of these so the price will be very low.

In a way the Chinese are already here, Polestar is owned by a Chinese company (as is Volvo) and the Polestar 2 is made in China, Polestar 3 is going to be made here. But the question is is BYD, Xpeng, Geely, etc come here. That MG Cyberster roadster is built in China by Geely, that car looks pretty sweet and it is rumored to have a $37,000 price with over 500 hp. That's a Corvette convertible at 50% the price. If stuff like that comes here I think it will sell. The sub $30k Tesla is dependent on the Mexico factory (for us, and the coming India factory for Asia) that is already under construction. That factory will be up and running by 2025, maybe it takes until 2026 to get production really ramped, but even still that is 3 years from now and that 1 vehicle alone could outsell Honda or Nissan's total volume in the USA. GM has to figure how to scale Ultium up, it is painfully slow the rate they are going. And GM was losing money on the Bolt, even with 40% cost reduction, they will probably still have to price it where the Bolt is now and then it becomes Telsa or Chevy Bolt for equal money, people will still pick the Tesla, but at GM will have an offering, I don't see Toyota, Nissan or Stellantis doing anything.

That chart seems to be going in a pretty clear direction. The only question is what brands can ramp up fast enough with compelling vehicles to meet the EV demand. And the Chinese are a big factor, the Inflation Reduction Act serves as a barrier to those Chinese EVs coming, but they are already hitting Europe and they'll come here if there aren't incentives to buy American or tariffs on the Chinese. Until the $25-30k Tesla arrives that basically becomes $20,000 car with no maintenance after tax credits. That will wipe out Corolla, Civic, Seltos, Kona, Trailblazer, Trax, Taos, Envista, Elantra, etc that are all low margin cars anyway that automakers will gladly dump. Tesla could easily sell 1-2 million of those just in the USA, 5 million worldwide. That 7% could be 25% in 2025 and then the flood gates open.

Right, you can get a Hyundai crossover that will be faster than a Mustang GT V8 and for the same money probably. The Ionic 5 N could be Corvette fast. The EV motor just has too much advantage over gas. And I would assume that in 5-6 years when we are into the next generation of these batteries it gets ever better.

The G63 is slower than a GLE63, but I get they wanted the heavy brick for comparison, but this video shows 2 things really: One is that the Range Rover is the biggest ripoff since it is the slowest, while also being the least reliable and for sure will depreciate the fastest. Second is a base Tesla Model X smokes all these, you don't even need the Plaid. These ICE cars are basically pointless now. 2024 Ford Mustang GT with all the performance upgrades is $64,000 and Car and Driver got a 4.2 second 0-60 time. Tesla Model 3 Performance after just the federal tax credit and not any state credits is about $45,000 and does it in 3.2 seconds. I've have V8 powered cars the past 20 years, the V8 is basically a dinosaur now, I know my next car will be EV, I can't imagine who will want these ICE cars in about 10 years time.

I don't think it needs to be on the high end of range if doing so is just adding tons of weight that hurts handling, braking, acceleration, efficiency, etc. You could have a 300 mile range version that would be better in every way except range than the 450 mile version, plus it would cost less. And Tesla has figured this out to some degree, a Model S dual motor is like 600 lbs less than a dual motor Mercedes EQE sedan and they are about the same size. Nor surprising the Model S has about 100 miles more range and is a full second faster 0-60, it is hauling less mass around.

The inside looks good, the exterior rear looks like a mess. But if you don't like screens, screens, screens you may not like that interior. I am not a big fan of screens galore, I hope that trend sort of ends, especially on luxury cars, and they all do screen overkill. I wonder if there will be a smaller battery, I think most people really don't need 450 mile range, so you are just paying for battery you don't need. I also wonder what the profitability of these 200 kWh battery vehicles is. Full size trucks traditionally have been cash cows since they can charge big money for a V8, and really the cost to manufacture a V8 powertrain vs a 4-cylinder powertrain probably isn't that big, maybe a thousand dollars. An Escalade or Silverado battery vs an Equinox or Bolt could be like $15,000 more cost to GM, which does eat away at that margin.