50% EV Goal by 2030 in USA Backed by Auto Industry

Who will buy these EVs and will they be affordable enough to replace a lot of the used cars already out on the road?

I'm coming to the conclusion that many of the OEMs are looking at strong support for EVs not only as a public image sort of thing, but as a chance to 'reset' the marketshare pie and get in early/gain market share. Because the actual market data in no way supports a mass (never mind an entire) shift to BE's. The '22s are out, it's 8 years until 2030, and BEs are 2% of the USDM. 

50% of new auto sales being BEV is not hard to believe once we see and have various options of both Cars, Trucks and SUV/CUV in BEV at various price points.

I think by 2025 we will see just how realistic this becomes depending on what is on the dealer lot / web site to purchase.

If all things are roughly equal--ICE appliances replaced by BEV appliances at the same price point, size and content level, I think they will sell.  I don't think the average consumer resource unit knows or cares what propulsion system powers their appliance, they only are looking at price point, efficiency, and features. 

Problem is- it's not going to be at the same price point distribution; the majority of confirmed upcoming BE's are priced above the median new vehicle ATP.

But I disagree; most don't care if they have a V6 or a turbo 4 because their operational interface is identical for both. Many consumers are resistant to significant operational changes... and for some- BEs simply won't work at all. 

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Problem is- it's not going to be at the same price point distribution; the majority of confirmed upcoming BE's are priced above the median new vehicle ATP.

But I disagree; most don't care if they have a V6 or a turbo 4 because their operational interface is identical for both. Many consumers are resistant to significant operational changes... and for some- BEs simply won't work at all. 

Yeah, I can see people trying to pump gas into an EV or lots of them getting run till the battery is flat.  But if they are too ignorant to learn the differences in their appliance, f’em. 

Is it also a "F'em!" when they live in a high rise or park on the street?

Are they supposed to dangle extension cords out their 5th floor windows??

5 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Is it also a "F'em!" when they live in a high rise or park on the street?

Are they supposed to dangle extension cords out their 5th floor windows??

People that live in high rises often use public transit and don’t have cars.  Parking on the street would suck.   But for those use cases, that’s why the public charging infrastructure has to grow.  

'Often'.... perhaps. Public transport doesn't run always or everywhere.
Hard data would be great, in fact; OEMs and Big Gov't should be looking directly at that before those folk are forced into a dwindling & aging pool of used IC vehicles.

More & more in the construction field I see 'own transportation required' - I think the days of running around to pick up workers is falling into the bygone era.

I think it is a good goal, and as batteries get better the cost will get more attainable.  Look at where a Tesla or Nissan Leaf was 8 years ago vs now, big advancements, the range has basically doubled for the same cost.  Now they have they range, they just need to half the cost.

But I also think OEM's don't care if an entry level car is $40k, because they will just offer 10 year car loans and if they sell fewer cars but make more profit they will be fine with that.  Look at right now, most of these car companies have a supply crunch, they are selling fewer cars, but they just charge more money for it.

Those 'halving the battery costs' aren't going to be passed on to the consumer.

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

if they sell fewer cars but make more profit they will be fine with that.

OK, so nobody needs to stuff 4-bangers in upper-level cars to "sell more".

Thank God that strawman is dead & buried! 🥳

Can’t say this wasn’t planned..

Many ask just how they are going to do, and how folks are going to pay for it. Well, you are getting a preview now…..

First step are the “”shortages” you see now. Don’t get excited too much- I don’t expect them to rush back into demand. And since there is no advertising and customers are paying full price (or more) there is no rush to build more. Will screw the workers at some point though….

The second is the one you see soon. The Middle East mess (politics or not) is going to turn quite nasty soon. Wall Street knows it, and is betting on it. Gas prices at some point in the future are going to jump quite a bit- double or triple what they are now. It will force consumers into EVs…..and whatever price they charge.

Consumers aren’t going to just be pushed into it-they will have to be forced into it.

That’s how they are going to make that goal…..

Futures speculation on the price of oil relies heavily on expected demand, also. 
If BE's (theoretically and inexplicably-suddenly) jump in market share (breathing freely over here), the demand for fuel goes down.

However; one significant driver of oil futures is the very recent disruptions in the oil production market, not just from the hurricane the other day affecting Gulf coast refineries, but the Keystone Pipeline death, rescinding drilling on federal lands (I'm not up-to-speed on this one tho), and general policies against production... then going off, hat-in-hand, begging OPEC to ship more oil. 

Oct '20 WTI crude was $35/barrel. July 1 '21 : $75/barrel.

On 10/22/2021 at 4:15 PM, balthazar said:

 

I doubt the pool of data was very big as I know way too many people that want full size trucks and SUVs which Tesla does not have.

Once the production spigot at Ford, GM and Rivian get going full speed, I doubt Tesla will have this title.

Plus if this was so true then why is there like 50 plus Tesla at the local tesla lot by me. They should be out of stock or at least very thin like other dealers.

It was a Google search result analysis- the pool must've been incalculably huge.

Tesla doesn't seem to have been affected by the chip shortage nearly as much, but to look at the big picture- they're market share in the USDM is still tiny- 2021's pace is still under 300,000. Couple that with how few Tesla dealers there are, and... yeah.