Tariff Tuesday - Manufacturers are Shuffling the Deck

Tariff Tuesday is the day where we cover how President Trump’s tariffs, if fully enacted, will impact the auto industry, increase costs, and limit consumer choice.  We started this series on April 15, Tax Day for those in the United States, because Trump’s tariffs amount to one of the largest single increases in taxes on the American People. The tariffs which, if fully implemented, will raise $1.4 trillion in revenue, and increase costs per household between $1,900 to $7,600 per year.

Manufacturers are shuffling their decks

Since the Trump tariffs have gone into place, automobile manufacturers have been rushing to shift production to avoid tariffs and reciprocal tariffs imposed by other countries.  This has lead to some breathless and inaccurate or incomplete headlines like:

Mazda set to stop U.S. production on this popular model. Here’s what that means for you - Daily Dot
First major auto manufacturer (Mazda) pulls plug on US production due to tariffs - MSN
Massive blow to Trump as Japanese car giant (Subaru) moves manufacturing OUT of US in tariff twist - Daily Mail
Trump tariffs cost U.S. millions as Subaru shifts supply to Japan - MSN

While some of the above articles explain the truth in the body of the stories, in these days of click-bait headlines, it is important that we don't bury the lead.

For both Mazda and Subaru, the production shifts are for vehicles built in the U.S. and bound for Canada.  Because of Trump's tariffs on imported vehicles, Canada placed a reciprocal tariff on vehicles imported from the U.S.  Going forward, Subarus sold in Canada will have a "Made in Japan" sticker on them. Prior to Trump's election, the popular Forrester model was slated start production in Indiana taking over allocation from the outgoing Subaru Outback. The new Subaru Outback Crossover is slated to be built in Japan, however that may change with the tariffs in place.  Unlike the domestic manufacturers, Subaru does not have multiple plants in the U.S. to move overseas production to  their Lafayette, IN plant.  The Subaru CrossTrek entered into production in the U.S. in 2023, only certain trimlines are made here with the base and premium trims still built in Japan.  It is likely that Subaru will shift all US Crosstrek production to Indiana. Subaru's sports car, the Subaru BR-Z, is unlikely to survive the tariff regime as we explained in our Sports Cars are Dead piece.

The Mazda CX-50 is the only Mazda model offered for sale in the U.S. that is built in the U.S in Huntsville, Alabama.  The Huntsville plant is a joint venture with Toyota who builds the Corolla Cross there as well. Mazda announced a pause in production of the CX-50 after the tariffs went into affect to regroup.  The plant had been supplying roughly 11,000 CX-50s to the Canadian market.  It is likely that Canadian CX-50s will be imported from China in future, though there has been no official word on that from Mazda yet. In a statement, Mazda says that overall production of the CX-50 at Huntsville should remain the same, meaning that factory's output will be entirely for the U.S. market.   It is likely that Mazda expects sales of the CX-5, a roughly similar sized crossover at a lower price and imported from Japan, will fall as the tariffs push the price above the CX-50's price.  It's also possible that Mazda sees opportunity for increased sales of the CX-50 being one of the few small crossovers built in the US.

Audi, which paused all imports in early April and has no production in the U.S., is looking to move production of certain models to Volkswagen's Chattanooga TN plant. The Audi Q4 eTron is built on the same platform as the Volkswagen ID.4 built in Chattanooga while the next version of the Audi Q8 eTron could join production of the new Scout truck and SUV at that brand's new plant in South Carolina.

The larger brands like Toyota, GM, and Ford have more flexibility to move production around.  GM in particular is looking to restructure its supply lines on trucks if the tariffs remain permanent, however, that does not necessarily mean a return to US production if they can prove enough of their sourced parts come from the U.S.

Playing the cards in their hand

Across the board, manufacturers are digging into their supply chains to tag parts made in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. In the new tariff requirements there is an exemption for raw materials and parts sourced from the U.S. in vehicles that have their final assembly in Mexico or Canada. Even with the supply-chain turmoil of the Covid-19 years, manufacturers do not have their parts content sourcing mapped to the raw material level. However, in order to qualify for that exemption, the vehicle must have 75-percent or more of its content sourced from North America. Calculating those savings correctly could make or break a model.

According to The Peterson Institute for International Economics, Mexican built vehicles already have an average of 40-percent to as high as 50-percent U.S. content. (Automotive News - Subscription Required).  Previously, an engine assembled in Mexico would be tariff free as long as some of the parts were made in the U.S.  Now, manufacturers have to calculate which parts come from where, where were the raw materials sourced, and how much value was added in a particular country in order to calculate the tax.

Unfortunately, even those calculations cost time and money manufacturers will pass an increase cost to consumers without an increase in value.

Gotta know when to fold'em

One of the many reasons cited by Trump for imposing these tariffs is to correct what he sees as an unfair trade imbalance between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.  Setting aside the fact that Canada has the same size population as the State of California and as such there would never be balanced trade between the U.S. and Canada, the unintended consequences are the reactions by auto manufacturers are making the trade imbalance worse with at least roughly 40,000 fewer U.S. built vehicles being exported to Canada and the remainder scrambling to prove their content sources to avoid the Trump tariffs and leave production in Mexico or Canada.  Any trade imbalance is not going to be fixed by Audi moving a few low volume products to existing U.S. factories.  This works out to a net loss for the American consumer.

Read more Tariff Tuesday articles below:

Tariff Tuesday - Big Trouble in Little Crossovers
Tariff Tuesday - Buick Killing it in China; Killed in the U.S.
Tariff Tuesday - Sports Cars are Dead