Drew Dowdell

In Chaos Theory, the butterfly effect is the idea that a tiny change can result in massive changes later. The simple act of a butterfly flapping its wings could set into motion a series of events that change the weather.

In the summer of 2018, the Detroit Auto Dealers Association, the organization responsible for putting together the Detroit Auto Show, more formally known as the North American International Auto Show or NAIAS, announced that beginning in 2020, the show would move in the calendar from its traditional time in January to a summer month to allow for exhibits and demonstrations outside of what was then Cobo Hall. Little did the show organizers know, but they may have changed the course of history for millions of people.

The final January show in Detroit was in 2019. It was also the last time I attended after ten straight years of reporting directly from the show. I was looking forward to the summer shows in Detroit. The weather for the January shows has always been unpredictable. There have been years when it has been pleasantly mild and years where I’m driving through unplowed snow six inches deep and then having to schlep to the Cobo Center in dress shoes.  Even with the poor weather, the Detroit Auto Show was always an exciting time to see the newest products and catch up with industry friends.

There was no Detroit show in 2020, nor was there a New York show, Chicago show, or Los Angeles show, for reasons we all understand in 2023. In the years following, the already struggling shows were cut down significantly, if they even ran at all.

Yesterday, I received my media credential for the 2023 North American International Auto Show, taking place in Detroit, starting September 13th. While I’ve registered for the credentials to various shows since 2021, this show in September will be the first I plan to attend since 2019. Thinking back, I realized how our recent history with Covid may have been very likely changed by the Detroit Auto Dealers Association’s desire to move the show outdoors. It is highly likely that this simple change in the schedule saved millions of lives.

I can remember hearing about this strange new virus in China in December 2019. I had recently left a position that I had held for 14 years and, armed with a very generous severance package, had decided to take a few months off to recuperate from burnout.  We already knew that the Detroit auto show was not going to happen until the summer, so I took all of January off with the intent to start looking for work in February.  History being what it was, I wouldn’t work full-time again until May 2020.

But consider the significance of NAIAS’s move to the summer; Wuhan is China’s 9^th largest city, having a population of over 11 million. It is one of China’s most important industrial and research centers and, as such, is home to a large number of automobile part suppliers. Those automobile parts suppliers send reps to all the major auto shows globally.

December 31^st, 2019

On New Year’s Eve 2019, Covid-19 was officially identified. Though it is now known that the earliest known infection was a person who fell ill on December 1^st, 2019, there is also a possible earlier case on November 17^th. I can tell you from experience that those of us in the U.S. who attend the Detroit auto show have our travel booked at least a month in advance, so it is likely that individuals who would be traveling internationally would have booked even earlier.  And remember, before Covid, we did not have the mentality of “if you’re sick, stay home”.  For an event as large and as important as the Detroit Auto Show, you just sucked it up and went. I am guilty of this myself. Before Covid-19, I would still attend the show even if I was feeling a little under the weather.

January 15^th, 2020

Sixteen days after being officially identified, the seven-day rolling average for Covid-19 related deaths was nearly 8,000, mostly in China. January 15^th is also traditionally the first or second day of the Detroit Auto Show, and Wuhan was still nine days away from lockdown. California, the first state in the US to lock down, was still two months away.

A series of unfortunate events… that didn’t happen

From here, it is not hard for anyone who has attended Media Days at any auto show to imagine the rest of the scenario.  Auto shows are crowded affairs. Journalists and industry spies juggling to get access to the latest product or talk to manufacturers’ representatives. Shaking hands, talking in close quarters, and a distinct lack of respect for personal space is basically required. Nearly no one wears a mask.

With several hundred to over a thousand visitors coming into Detroit from Wuhan, the Detroit Auto Show would have been not A super spreader event, but THE super spreader event.  This massive gathering of thousands of people in close quarters from all over the globe would have accelerated the pandemic on an unimaginable scale. The virus would have been taken back to cities across the US, Europe, and Asia in large numbers a full two months earlier and caused the pandemic to be far worse and far more rapid than what we went through.

Returning to Normalcy

Prior to Covid, working at the Detroit Auto Show could be a 14+ hour day. One year, I remember a 5 a.m. wake-up call to make a 6 a.m. Porsche press conference and then a series of events that lasted well into the evening.  Those days are gone now, and the Detroit Show is a shell of its former self. This year, we expect five or fewer reveals, and even those might be simple facelifts or trim packages.

But one of the reasons that's happened is because attendance and coverage has dropped so significantly. Manufacturers don’t see the value in a show with a low attendance rate.  I know it’s not going to be like the old days, but it will never come back if we continue to stay away. With that in mind, though the news from the show will still be thin this year, I will be covering the show in person once again, this time with a mask and some butterflies.

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That was a favorite of mine growing up.

This was another favorite.

2 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

Yes I am.

But... although not as huge muscled as you, I did do weights back in the day.   I still got my chest and leg muscles in full force.  My calves are still well defined.   Ive lost my quads definition but all the leg muscles are still rock hard. 

My biceps and triceps need work.  I barely got my V around the shoulders where the biceps and tricpes begin. If I flex, the V and triceps are visible. Barely.  But they are there.   

*SIGH*        the bicep and tricep muscles are pathetically dormant though. 

Never had abs.  I had a flat stomach then, not so much now, but at least Ive lost weight and the stomach is kinda flat again.

Too much work to have abs so I never concentrated on them.  Playing sports I figured, abs are not important.  I trained for strength and speed.  Not for bulk and definition.   But I have small wrists.  I have a small to medium body frame.  Im only 5 foot 6 and a half to 3 quarters tall after all.   (to be exact...LOL)   Not quite 5'7'' but definetaly taller than shorty 5.6''  

lol, we might need a fitness thread too.  I have never been built, I was always the trim/cut swimmers build right up until 2020 when the pandemic, a very sedentary job, and my 40s conspired together to build a dad bod and I gained 35 lbs, none of it muscle.  In mid-July, work started a weight loss challenge where participants can win up to $500... so that made cookies really not worth it. At 5-weeks in, I'm down 17.4 lbs on a strict diet + swimming laps 3 times a week. The goal for the contest is being down 25 lbs by October 2nd, and shockingly, I'm in 5th place.  After the contest is over, I'm going to keep it going and I'm aiming for 35 lbs down by November 7th, my birthday. I might aim for 50lbs down by Christmas with the goal of a swimmers body by then.

Here's my Sturhling Bar Automatic, my favorite watch, I mentioned yesterday

Haven’t had one of these since 2019. I know it’s not going to be like old days, but it will never come back if we keep not going.
 

3 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

It seems to be booming. Rolex and other luxury brands are producing record numbers of time pieces a year. 

People will always want jewelry and luxury watches are no different than diamonds for women. 

This.

I think the cheap market might be dead, because once people have a smartwatch they'll wear that over the $45 one they got at Target.

But when I don't wear my Apple watch, I wear one of my automatics because I'm dressing up more formally or trying to look snazzy for something. Apple watches aren't ugly, but they're no longer special or interesting.

1 minute ago, David said:

Very clean, easy to read. Nice watch!

Course with my habit of never wearing jewelry let alone a watch, I doubt I will ever buy one since my phone has it all. 

Read multiple writeups that the watch market is a dying industry, be interesting to see where it is in 20 to 30 years.

I don't think it will be dead, but I think it will be more specialized.  My daily wear watch is my Apple watch because I track health stats with it. I have to aggressively remove apps that send too many notifications to it.

I don't have much knowledge of watches and don't really care about pedigree.  I'll never buy a watch just because of the name brand.  I tend to like them in two styles.  I like either a classic, minimalist, Deco style, or as a skeleton style.  I always prefer an automatic and don't really shop outside of that category ever. One thing I've never liked is metal watch bands. I find they snag on my arm hair or just about anything else that's around.

My favorite watch I've had for about 6-8 years now is a Sturhling Bridge Automatic.  They still produce the bridge model, but no longer as an automatic. I'll get a picture of it when I'm home.

This Stauer Dashtronic is one I've admired for a while and not sure why I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet.

Parked next to this at the Barnes and Noble today. Never seen one with the body colored grille like this. I think it looks really sharp!

And voila! A Watch and Timepiece thread (I like clocks too, so both can go in here.)

I spotted this one at the Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix this year on a Rover. I don't think the company ever used this and it's an aftermarket by the owner, but I still like it.

Do we need a watch appreciation thread?

14 hours ago, David said:

Acura and Honda have joined the NACS camp for North America now. Probably GM had something to do with this.

I mean, that was a no-brainer for Honda/Acura since they're going to use the Ultium platform.  They just needed to negotiate the contractual stuff with Tesla on their own.

5 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I don't necessarily think it is the best animal but I think they use the animal the best in this 3-D ornament. 

I think if some other companies did the awesome 3-D hood ornament, this may not be *as* cool as it is. If Ford actually used a mustang horse or cobra snake on the hoods, that'd be awesome! Orrrrr if Dodge put a real Viper head on a hood, that'd be freakin cool. 

Buuuuut, as it stands in reality, this leaping Jaguar hood ornament is absolutely the best. 

Ford and Lincoln did use a greyhound a few decades before the Mustang and that hood ornament was pretty cool

I don't think everything has to be "badass" like a Mustang or a Viper.

But check out these other ones that have been used:

Bugatti:

MAZ (a russian brand), Lambo isn't the only one that uses a bull.

21 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

I'll have to do that. I have to call them up and check on a recall issue anyway and see when they can get me in. I wonder if they'd let me take one home overnight as a loaner vehicle...that'd rock. 

Keep dreaming lol!  you'll end up in an old fusion or escape.

12 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

This is how it's showing on their site. To me, it doesn't look like any ADM.

Well, if it is a dealer that you pass by on occasion, stop in and peek at the window sticker and let us know.

48 minutes ago, David said:

For me the 442 will always be a favorite. I also have a soft spot for for Delta 88 & 98 custom cruisers.

I'd love one of these in black with the deep merlot leather interior

26 minutes ago, David said:

Agree that would be a great resource.

NACS the North American New Charging Standard? - Automotive Industry - Cheers & Gears (cheersandgears.com)

Rivian Latest to Join the NACS Camp - Rivian - Cheers & Gears (cheersandgears.com)

Electrify America Adding NACS Connectors - Automotive Industry - Cheers & Gears (cheersandgears.com)

Tesla Supercharger Network of North America Now a Benz Charging Option - Mercedes Benz - Cheers & Gears (cheersandgears.com)

We do have a pretty good start with all the info in the links above.

Yeah, but I think I want a consolidated page. Less of an article and more of a chart.

11 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Not sure if this really pertains to this topic of not buuuuuut, my local Ford dealership has 3 Mach-e's and 1 Lightning right now.  It seems kind of odd for a small town of ~10,000 people. Yeah, we usually get these but it seems odd to have so many EVs all at one time. The Mach-e's have been here for probably 2, maybe 3, weeks, at this point. The Lightning has only been there for a few days. 

After going to the dealer's website, it looks like they have two more Mach-e's "in transit". 

The Lightning is apparently a Pro, which I thought were reserved for fleets only...? 

They have $1,000-1,100 in rebates on these EVs as of me writing this. 

I find it funny the description on their website for the Lightning Pro. 🤣

"Fleet" can really mean anything. A plumbing business with three trucks qualifies.

I wonder if there is any ADM on them. A lot of times it won't be reflected on the website, it will be a sticker next to the monroney in the window.

1 minute ago, David said:

 Right now Tesla and GM seem to be the only ones that are offering home charging management, but others are talking about it too, so might be good to have a list of those companies offering home power management and if it allows V2H.

Fisker and Rivian plan to offer it in an OTA update.

I am thinking about opening an EV page on here with links to things like home charging, EV-specific tires, Apps for locating chargers, and ideally, a news feed of any EV-related news, a list of which companies are using which standard (and when any change goes into effect). 

What else do you think it should include?

On 8/18/2023 at 1:09 AM, David said:

Awesome to see more are adopting this to take away another excuse by the EV haters that you cannot charge an EV.

This is also good news to see additional vendors get approval to built the NACS ports and cables.

Tesla issues license to Volex to build NACS connector | Electrek

I need to make up a list of who has joined the NACS bandwagon.  I'm thinking about building an EV resources page on here for stuff like that.

On this day 129 years ago, August 21st, 1897, Oldsmobile was founded by Ransom E. Olds.

Oldsmobile was always a leader in technology, leading the way for features like the Automatic transmission, front-wheel drive in mass market cars, overhead valve V8s, GPS and more.

Olds styling was typically subdued and handsome rather than brash and garish (except for 1958). Usually a best seller, the Oldsmobile Cutlass was often the top selling nameplate in the US in the 1970s and 1980s.

And though a technology leading division for GM in the late 1990s, the public couldn't get around the name "Oldsmobile" and along with GM's financial troubles, GM decided to fold the marque after 107 years of production.

You've all seen my 1981 Oldsmobile Toronado, but what are some of your favorite models of Olds from any year.

A view through the decades:

7 hours ago, trinacriabob said:

How does a person know when brakes are glazed over with both discs and drums?

That last F-bird I spotted had rear drums.  I put up a photo or two.

I couldn't believe that that one Pontiac LeMans basic coupe my dad had with an inline 6 cylinder and no air conditioning had drum brakes all the way around.  That car never gave an ounce of trouble but braking during any wet weather, especially after long dry spells out West, was a little hazardous.  I sometimes wondered if those cars that had front drum brakes could be converted to front disc brakes.

There are a lot of disk brake conversion kits these days for older cars, but that's a modern development. It probably wasn't available when your dad bought it new unless it could be optioned that way from the factory.

In my case, it wasn't that I knew they were glazed over, it's that it felt like the rear brakes weren't doing anything at all.   My stopping distances were getting scary. When I pulled the shoes, the edges of the brake material looked melted over and the surface was very shiny. With brakes, only the surface receiving the stopping pressure should look shiny, so the inside of the drum and the surface of the rotors. The pad or shoe materal that touches the drum or rotor should be pretty matte. Any indication of melting of that material (virtually impossible with ceramic brakes unless you're in Indy) tells you that the brakes have overheated and must be replaced.

I don't mess around with brakes and I just replace rotors/drums along with pads every time I do the brakes on a vehicle. So I have new drums, shoes, pads, and rotors for once the rest of the parts come in.  Later years of the Toronado could be optioned with disk brakes, so maybe someday in a few years I'll see if I can get all the hardware to convert it.

Today, I got the starter replaced in the 1999 BMW R1100RS, the starter has siezed up.  I had concerns that the whole engine was locked up, so I took the breast plate off and put a breaker bar on the crankshaft and thankfully it spun freely.   So, then pulled the starter which was just two bolts and one nut to hold the wire on.  It was pretty greasy under all of that so while it was out, I used some ZEP 505 Degreaser all around the area and got 20 years of grime out. Once I got it all back together and threw the battery back in, it fired right up with no trouble.  It was running a little lumpy, so I got out the throttle body balancer and adjusted the idle and balance of the engine to where it's operating really smoothly (as far as boxers operate smoothly).

I removed the engine guards on each side that had been spraypainted yellow by the previous owner, I'll be ordering new replacements. The previous owner also clearly had an incident on the right side at some point because that cylinder head cover is all banged up.  I have the left one, and I'm watching a right one on EBay right now.  I already have the gaskets.  Once I get the right side, I'm going to do a valve adjustment as I can hear a tick and that is just a regular 12k mile service item and I have no idea when it was done last.  Waiting to get that done and then I'll change the oil.  I don't want to be opening up the engine after I put new oil in.

I still need to find the front fairing for around the headlight and a new windscreen.  I already have a new headlight, front turn signals, and a few other items, but it's getting pretty close to road ready.  One of the things I love about these BMW boxers is how easy they are to work on.  Everything is very accessible, the valve adjustment job will take me less than 30 minutes to do both sides. Pulling each cylinder cover is two bolts. Changing the oil is super easy.