Drew Dowdell

1 minute ago, ccap41 said:

Yeah, didn't they announce the cancelation of the Bolt within the last year or something?

I guess technically, they announced the end of production rather than cancelation.  But with sales numbers like what @David quoted, I can see a desire not to give up that slice of the market. The Bolt was ended to make room for additional Silverado EV production, so I would expect we'll hear about it moving to a new plant in the future.

An unexpected twist! It sounds like it will be a major  mechanical refresh but maybe not so much a visual one.  I've read elsewhere that this could underpin a future Honda as well.

Put it another way, Toyota has more spare capacity than Tesla has total capacity.

On 7/6/2023 at 6:50 PM, smk4565 said:

Tesla will be at 8 million EV by 2030 easily

No... just no.  Put down the vape.

Tesla does not have the manufacturing capacity globally to produce 8 million vehicles.   Today, they can do about a million and a quarter per year, and Fremont is still using tents to build cars.

On 7/3/2023 at 10:17 PM, smk4565 said:

Last year when Tesla did not have the tax rebate and Hyundai/Kia did, Tesla still outsold them and everyone else.  

Also the Model Y outsells the Rav4 in the USA, and the Rav4 is way cheaper, has the Toyota brand name, strong resale, low ownership cost, etc.  The Rav4 was the crossover gold standard that Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia were never even close to outselling, Tesla came in and blew it way with ease. 

And the Tesla "Model 2" is going to sell 4-5 million units annually.  That 1 model alone could outsell the whole Ford Motor Company. 

GM and Ford are trying, but I think they are going too slow.  At least they are doing something though, most of the Japanese brands and Stellantis are asleep at the switch, Toyota hoping they can tap the cash reserve and play catch up, but time is running out on that.

And the problem for legacy OEM isn't just scale, it is profitability,  Tesla margins are nearly double Mercedes-Benz margins (best in class for legacy OEM).  So how does Hyundai or Ford or GM, make a $40,000 EV with better margins than an Escalade or Navigator?   They can't is the answer.

Man.... you gotta stop smoking the Musk Vaporware....

1 minute ago, smk4565 said:

And yet Q2 2023 was another sales record for Tesla.  Ioniq 5 is flat for the year, Mach-E was down 36% YTD through May, EV6 was reported to be down 43% in June, it has been down all year.  These guys don't have a chance.  They can't get any volume, and they can't make any profit.  

That means nothing regarding attractive designs. The EV6 is too expensive for its size and bodystyle. I like it, but I wouldn’t pay what Kia is asking for it. 
 

but that doesn’t make Teslas less stark

I am a computer person.  Apple has been far more reliable for me than Android.  Both OSes suck, but the build quality of Apple products has been, on average, better than the Androids I've had. The best Androids were the Nexus and Pixel line.  Samsungs are garbage.

On 6/29/2023 at 8:49 PM, smk4565 said:

Kind of like Tesla EV's compared to others.   Much better design at Tesla.  They can all switch the charger, but they can't switch their cars.

The charger and the motor, and certain batteries are the only things that Tesla has an advantage on. Their visual design sucks (peaked at early Model S) and their interior design can only be considered "design" by the most technical use of the word.  Stark, stale, austere, plain, and unremarkable, are all words I'd use to describe Tesla aesthetics.  Are they still using Dodge Dart window switches? I haven't checked lately.

20 hours ago, trinacriabob said:

The birthday board at the right side of the forum page indicates/d:

Happy birthday to @Robert Hall

Happy birthday to @bobo

Edit:  Happy birthday to @loki , too!

There's a little bit of slush in the time zones, but close enough.  Enjoy your b-days ... and many more.

- - - - -

I was up for 25 hours yesterday flying back to the states with delays.  Thankfully, I changed planes in Chicago.  Those changing planes in New York and thereabouts most likely misconnected and may have even been stranded.  A friend who was coincidentally coming back from Europe on the same day was in fact stranded at New York - JFK.  She just got home within the last few hours.  

It feels good to be home even if feeling like a wet noodle.  Lots of interesting sightings ... and even some interesting car rentals.  

Happy birthday guys. Sorry I wasn’t around for the actual day. Been serving on the worst kind of jury duty possible, but it’s finally all done.

On 6/9/2023 at 11:23 PM, Olds Guy said:

Greetings!

I saw one if these in person and found myself thinking that this Auburn color is actually pretty nice.  Better than the Harvest Bronze on the pickups.

Also, is the garage still up and going?  I guess its been a minute since Ive tried to load something.

OG

Hey there @Olds Guy, welcome back!  Yes, the garage is still up and running. It's under the Community menu up top or you can get to it here. https://www.cheersandgears.com/garage/

I do like that color, but I tend to like Blue or Green more.

They don't really have a green I like.

Jeep used to have an amazing dark green that I loved.

EA is a weird situation because they exists due to a court order.  Until that court order expires, I expect them to remain independent.

5 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

This ought to get them to make a reliable infrastructure after getting sh!t on by the three largest EV companies in the US.

Except for EA, I expect there to be several rounds of consolidation as David suggested. Shell is actively buying up charging networks and I would be surprised if other traditional energy companies don't start doing the same. 

BP already has their BP Pulse network in the UK and announced in Feb is investing $1B in building the Pulse network in the US in partnership with Hertz.  They also own a company that builds the DC Fast Chargers and an Israeli battery company.

Chevron has a partnership with EVgo to install chargers at its gas stations, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chevron just buy EVgo outright eventually.

Only Exxon is taking the Toyota "EV's aren't real" approach even though their CEO predicts that all new cars will be EVs by 2040. Rather than being the supplier of energy for transportation, Exxon seems to be taking the path of being the leader in specialized lubricants for EVs that are different than traditional automotive lubricants. If and when Exxon's CEO changes, that policy could change too.

2 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

If it's a regional issue, why does your region have an issue? You said it was the South and Midwest that have issues but you're saying your own west coast is having issues as well.

Different issues in different regions.  In @David's region, the EV chargers suffer from the volume of use. There's just more vehicle volume at them.  In the mid-west, the charger stations are fewer and further between due to lack of adoption.  The stations get vandalized more often and there is less of a support network to bring them back online.

1 hour ago, David said:

have out of order signs on some of the chargers. Tesla is not perfect, but it is amazing how folks think Tesla is to the auto world like Apple to tech.

This is also true.  The benefit of Tesla is that they will typically put in 8 - 14 chargers while EA or ChargePoint will put in 2 - 4.  If one Tesla charger goes down it's a 7% to 12.5% outage rate. If one Chargepoint charger goes down, it's a 25% - 50% outage rate.

21 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Correct me if I am wrong 

That's basically a full-time job around here.

21 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla is using solar to generate electricity and will install mega pack batteries in the ground to store it so they aren’t going to be paying for electricity.  They can undercut Shell or anyone else on price per kWh.

Tesla solar at a supercharging station is window dressing and a bit of advertising their solar panels, nothing more.  Solar in that square footage cannot generate sufficient electricity to fully charge those megapack batteries. 

Solar on a house covers the house's usage plus a little left over for the grid. A single Model-3 charging at 250kW at a super charger is pulling the equivalent of 166 standard microwave ovens.

My guess is that while Tesla is using solar to top of the batteries in the ground, they will primarily be using the batteries for energy arbitrage, charging when the price is low and selling when the price is high, off of grid power.  Shell (and others) already do that, but without the battery part.  When they're the generation company, they can beat Tesla on the grid price and the amount of gain Tesla gets by using solar will be offset by the cost to install and maintain the batteries and panels.

In short, I bet the cost per kWh is a wash between the two companies.

16 hours ago, smk4565 said:

 If Tesla wins on price, which they are right now, they are going to clobber everyone.

I don't have a lot of knowledge on this, but looking at both the ChargePoint and Tesla apps, it looks like in our area it's 35c - 50c to DC fast charge on both networks.  The price varies by day and time of day.   There's also the possibility that Tesla will charge a higher rate to non-Tesla cars using SuperChargers.  ChargePoint and other networks also have monthly plans that lower the charge rate if you're going to be using public chargers a lot.

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

Because the Tesla ones will work. 

This will be the key factor.  The other charger networks, EA specifically, were the ones that shot themselves in the foot on this.

Musk just thinks he can do whatever he wants regardless of the regulations.

On 6/2/2023 at 8:43 PM, smk4565 said:

I assumed this was China only.  China is toughing up emissions standards this year, and that is a cheap EV battleground there.  This could be a short lived product as an ICE car might be a real hard sell in China in 5 years.  And Cadillac needs to get their American line to EV in a hurry, because the ICE line is dying on the vine, time to scrap CT4, CT5, XT4, XT5, XT6 and start all over for their 4th or 5th brand overhaul in the past 25 years.   

This is probably coming here for 2024. There’s a slot in the product plans for a crossover this size in addition to the XT4.

On 6/5/2023 at 5:07 PM, ccap41 said:

The Tundra is rated slightly higher.

He was comparing the non=hybrid tundra to the hybrid Ram, which the Tundra still edges the Ram by 1mpg highway, both 19mpg combined. 

And their hybrids:

Unless I've missed a press release, there is no true hybrid ram. The hemi eTorque is the mildest of mild hybrids.  It can add 140 lb.ft of torque measured at the crank, but engine management is tuned in such a way that total output is the same regardless if you have eTorque on your hemi or not.  What eTorque mostly does is take those micro changes in throttle that you make during a highway cruise and deliver the power via electric rather than gas.  This means the Hemi can stay in 4-cylinder mode much longer and much more often.  They've also used it to do some magic with the transmission to make shifting butter smooth.  It's CVT smooth aside from seeing the tach needle swing.

I had a Wagoneer rental with the 6.4 eTorque for a trip to Florida two Decembers ago. Even with the motorcycle on the back, it managed 20 mpg in "enthusiastic" highway driving.

The regular turbo-v6 from Toyota suffers the same issue that the Ford Ecoboost does.  You can have Eco or you can have Boost... but not both at the same time.  That said, the Toyota iForce-Max massively outpowers the Ram 5.7 so much that it isn't even close to a fair fight. It has 437 horsepower and 583 lb-ft of torque verse 395 horsepower and 410 lb-ft of torque for the eTorque Hemi and still gets 2-mpg better.  The Tundra has an entire Camry 4-cylinder of extra torque under the hood compared to the Ram.

14 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

All GM vehicles (except pick ups) are uniside vehicles.  A-pillar to D-pillar is one panel.  Very few other cars are done like that, most are 2 or 3 piece.

Yes, but they’re not unibody on frame like the GM big SUVs and soon the EV trucks

55 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Cybertruck will have accessories, I think there is already a camper add on for it.

That's like selling phone cases before the phone is released.

56 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

The Silverado EV is basically unibody too, it isn’t body on frame it is more unibody on battery pack.

It's both. They have to come up with a new term for it. Technically, it's Unitized Body-on-Frame.  The latest Suburbans and Tahoes are set up like this too. Everything from the front to back on the body is now one welded piece and it all sits on a traditional frame.

Fisker has announced that the Ocean Extreme has achieved an EPA rating of 360 miles, longer range than any SUV under $200k currently sold.  The Extreme is the top range of the Ocean lineup, with Ultra and Sport offering 340 miles and 250 miles of range, respectively.  There is also the Fisker Ocean One, a special edition of the Extreme, but unless you already hold a reservation for one, you're not able to buy it.

The Ocean Extreme prices out at $68,999 base and features dual-motor AWD, boost mode, and a host of driving assist features. California Mode drops all windows aft of the windshield, including the tailgate and D-pillar windows, allowing for an open-air driving experience.

Ocean Ultra has a base price of $49,999, which slightly undercuts the Tesla Model Y LR while offering 10 extra miles of range. Ocean Sport undercuts the Tesla Model Y base by about $10,000 but has 29 fewer miles of range.

On a 350 kW DC-Fast Charger, the Fisker Ocean can gain 200 miles of range in just 30 minutes.

Now with EPA certification in hand, Fisker says that the first Ocean deliveries will start the week of June 19th, with production rapidly expanding after that.

View full article

I like the look, but I feel like the passenger side windows are a bit weird. I'll have to try out to see how effective they are.

General Motors has recently been in the habit of releasing vehicles in China before bringing them to the U.S.  Buick released the Envista in China back in September of 2022 but waited until just a few weeks ago to announce the Envista for the U.S. Similar patterns have happened with the Cadillac XT4 and Buick Encore GX. We suspect the same thing is happening here with the Cadillac GT4 that debuted Monday in China.

What is it?

The Cadillac GT4 is essentially a slightly fastback version of the Cadillac XT4. While decidedly less "coupe" shaped than the Buick Envista, the GT4 stretches the vehicle's look and gives it a more low-slung side profile.

The interior of the GT4 is essentially a direct carryover from the XT4 with a large, curved 33-inch-diagonal infotainment and gauge screen that sweeps two-thirds of the way across the dash. Other available features include a 15-speaker AKG Audio system, HD streaming mirror, heads-up display, haptic seats, and iKey wireless entry.

For China, the GT4 is powered by either a 1.5-Liter turbo or a 2.0-liter turbo 4-cylinder, both with a 48V mild hybrid system.  While power specs for the 1.5-liter are not discussed, the 2.0L is listed at 233 horsepower, roughly the same as the 235 horsepower in the U.S. version.  Buyers can select front or all-wheel drive.

What will we get?

While the overall vehicles that are sold in both the U.S. and China by GM are essentially similar, the details and features often change.

Don't expect the U.S. version of the GT4 to come with a mild-hybrid system, 1.5T, or iKey, but the AKG Audio system, HD Mirror, and heads-up display will probably make it over. A feature that the US may get that China does not is massaging seats.

Cadillac has choices on where to build the GT4. The XT4 hasn't been selling in large volumes and it shares its U.S. production line with the Chevy Malibu in Kansas City, so GM could decide to build it there. Or, with the possibility of the GT4 being a low-volume model, they could just as easily ship it over from China.

In China, and with the lower spec 1.5T, the GT4 will have a base price around the equivalent of $31,000, and we suspect that number will be higher in the U.S. as the 2024 XT4 has a base price of $39,090.

While Cadillac has no official word yet, we expect to hear something soon about the GT4 for the U.S. market.

View full article

31 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

The Silverado EV is said to weigh over 8,000 lbs.  And I bet the Silverado is heavier than the Cybertruck because after seeing Munro and Associates tear apart the Hummer battery, that Ultium pack is not weight efficient at all.  Tesla’s battery is more space and weight efficient than Ultium.  

Again. The payload rating is only for the sticker. Federally, the Silverado EV will be in the same class as the Silverado 1500.

The Silverado EV is 233 inches long and the Cybertruck is 231 inches long. But that means because the Cybertruck has a 6.5 ft bed rather than the 5.5 (without midgate) the Silverado EV has, the Silverado EV will have a larger passenger compartment.

While the Silverado EV has a larger "snout" like a conventional truck, look how far back from the windshield and front the driver sits in the Cybertruck.

That's all wasted space.

Giving me the same energy....

7 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Just out of curiosity, how do you know this? Are you getting it based on the payload/towing ratings plus the assumption that it has to weigh between X - X thousand pounds due to size/battery/motors? 

Or have they released an estimated weight already that I just haven't seen? 

From Tesla themselves in a letter to CARB:

Quote

While we have not yet begun production of the Cybertruck, we expect it to have a towing capacity of 7,500-14,000+ lbs., and it should very likely qualify as a “Class 2B-3” medium-duty vehicle.

There is no class "2b" in Pennsylvania. You get bumped into class 3.

But you can also simply math it. A Model-X plaid is 5,390. Even if we assume the Cybertruck will be the same weight (it won't) 5,390 + 3,500 is 8,890. That's Class 2b Federally and Class 3 in Pennsylvania.

But that would be just the 250-mile range model. Expect the 500-mile version to have double the battery of the Model-X Plaid, so an additional 1,200 lbs.  Now it's firmly in Federal Class 3 territory (Silverado HD 3500) and PA Class 4.

And those estimates are based on Model-X weights. Tesla themselves estimate a top curb weight of 6,500 lbs. (5,390+1,200= 6,590)