SimonDavid

Not necessarily. There is still a significant risk that GM will simply run out of cash before 2007. The GMAC deal hasnt been banked yet - the cash there is phased over 3 years and Im sure there are some get out clauses if the buyer gets cold feet. An August strike is still a live possibility, and the buyouts are going to cost 4 billion. In fact it could be argued that GM is already in a form of liquidation given the sale of assets like GMAC. In this circumsatnce a Nissan/Renault offer of cold hard cash + Ghosn for a 20% stake could be a very tempting alternative to chapter 11.

It was the most stupid idea in history the SAAB 9-3 it is based on is only marginally competitive - sells a bit in the UK and Scandinavia but basically nowhere else, many on discounted leases. The idea that a Cadillac version sold through a non existent dealer network with a brand few trust will do better, well thats crazy. One of the big differences between US and Europe is that europeans actually use the performance. When I was driving to work at 160 kmh in Belgium I could really tell the difference between a 3 series and a warmed over Vectra or Mondeo

If GM really is global now.... What about shipping the tooling out to that south african plant that already build the H3, and building the GMT360 there indefinitely, with cheap labour, for international developing markets?

I totally agree. Just take the Zafira from Poland and Meriva from Brazil NOW and slap Saturn badges on them. With gas prices heading north GM might actually be ahead of the curve for a change. All the niches add up. If it was worth doing for the GTO they can do it half a dozen other vehicles as well, I vote : Meriva Zafira Holden Ute (El Camino) Astra twin-top A small Brazilian-built sub-colorado

In all this discussion of manual transmissions - does anyone know what the Impala's V6 engine is going to be? If the Impala is Zeta based I would have thought it would have commonality with the next gen Commodore. The Commodore's base engine is the 3.6 HF V6, which is already available with a manual in the CTS. And of course the LSx engines are already available with manuals - GTO, next gen Camaro. So the only way I can see the manual being a problem to offer is if the new Impala keeps that 3.9 HV V6 as the base.

It's not surprising at all. Korea is exporting all over the world - eventually that pushes up the value of your currency. Hyundai is countering this by building plants outside of Korea and to stay competitive GM/Daewoo will need to do the same.

Evok, how is the Malibu going to take up this slack if the 2008 refresh is still on the current SWB Ep1? It's a bit of a gamble isn't it? Do GM have something up their sleeve on this?

The thing that worries me about all this is that the Malibu needs to not just hold its own, but pick up some of Impala's volume if / when Impala goes RWD. If the new Impala is in anyway related to the Aussie Commodore then it's going to be a heavy car and probably priced a bit above the Camcord. Malibu MUST be the corporation's bullseye Camcord fighter, especially as Pontiac has an uncertain future and Saturn is chasing VW (no 4 cylinder). But a 2008 Malibu on EP1, even if it's good looking, will surely lack some perceived size compared to Camcord.

I'm getting that impression too. I cannot see where Pontiac fits in and nothing is confirmed for them.

OK so a Camaro, an Impala and a Buick Statesman imported from China? Am I getting close? Sounds logical, but wouldnt it be ironic if the oldest American brand became the first china built vehicle to land in the US?

I'm guessing they'll watch very closely the relative sales of G6 vs Aura, and if Aura does well then Pontiac will gracefully fade away. GM will probably concentrate its (limited) resources on Chevy, Opel (which would = Saturn from Astra/Ion onwards) and Cadillac. Buick / GMC stays as a limited US-only sales channel selling moderately gussied up Chevy cars and trucks respectively.

Getting a bit off topic here, but is there a Pontiac in the EP 2 plan? Or is this kind of te beginning of the end for Pontiac, a way of phasing over from G6 to Aura?

A question for the insiders - does this mean that Pontiac is becoming a sort of niche Buick sub-brand? Like G6, Solstice, Cobalt rebadge and that's it? Please give us a hint...

I agree with Croc, Evok etc. An inflexible, roadster-only Kappa, if not a total waste of time, is at least a missed opportunity. Spending a little more could have yielded a small RWD platform and multiple generations of 1 and 3 series competitors. GM still has no 3 series competitor on the horizon - Zeta / whatever they are calling it now is too big and heavy. The 3 series is the best selling 4 door sedan in europe - it's not a niche market. I thought / hoped that this was the real reason GM got into Subaru - that they were going to use that WRX platform, but I guess not now. Also, as a left field idea, I would have thought that instead of shrinking the Corvette for a Miata competitor, they should try and stretch/expand it for a limited volume, top of the line Cadillac ULS.

I think GM made a big mistake in not hiring Wolfgang Bernhard as a number 2 / designated successor for Lutz. Lutz is great, but he is only 1 guy, he's not getting any younger, and a company as huge and complex as GM needs more than 1 guy to turn it around. Ideally Lutz would have 4 "mini-Lutzes" all about 45 years old, reporting to him. They would be his shock troops to fight the bureaucratic battles and entrench his changes. GM is 4 times bigger and more complex than Chrysler therefore needs 4 Lutz's. Lutz should have been both more empowered and more accountable. For all his genius he's made some mistakes - inflexibility of Kappa, the initial Zeta program going off track then delayed. Probably because he's juggling too many balls. And who his is successor? GM by now should have groomed 3 or 4 strong contendors for his job, the most important in the company. A beer for anyone who can name them.

I think we'll have a competitive small Opel / Saturn soon enough, it's just that moving onto a globalised engineering process is going to create some phasing anamolies. But GM will come out much stronger at the end of the process.

We'll see. Where are the new gen Zeta show cars for Buick and Pontiac? I can't see GM abolishing Buick and Pontiac in the short term, there's no point, but I don't see them investing a huge amount in them long term either. I think they will be increasingly be seen as niche brands. Pontiac will survive basically on the G6 and Solstice and a Cobalt rebadge, Buick on the Enclave and a Holden Statesman. It's becoming clear that Saturn is getting the focus. Saturn is safe because apart from the Outlook they will in future be Opels. If Opel is developing the Epsilon 2 cars you can garauntee theyll make the Saturn a success because that's their mainstay.

Looking at the summary, that $140 k or $70k is for the Delphi or GM employee to sever all ties with GM ie forfeit all retirement and health care entitlements except vested pension rights. So it's really just cashing out existing obligations - GM's pension and health care liabilities should come down when people take it up. Annual cost of employing an hourly is probably about $70k to $100k when you include all the on costs so this investment will only have a 1 to 2 year payback. I think GMs weakness is turning into a strength - people look at the financial weakness of the company and conclude that it's not a good idea to be a GM retiree so they'll take a relatively low buyout offer.

Back of the envelope - 13,000 potential early retirees x 35,000 incentive that some of them may be eligible for = 455 million maximum cash outlay. So where does the 3 to 5 billion bailout cost come from? Is this figure maybe the total pension liability for all those retirees? ie it's not an immediate cash outlay, it just gets added to the GM pensions fund's existing 100 billion liabilities. If that's the case then GM doesn't come out of this too bad.

Notice how they dont build any in eastern europe? Whereas their competitors are all going to slovakia, Poland, Czech republic. Because The British Swedes and Germans were all previously fighting their own countries' corners, trying to protect "their" plants

I'm not sure the union are screwed Most of them are near retirement age, and they are probably gambling that if the worst comes to the worst the federal government / pension guarantee board will bail out their pensions

Im guessing a 9-4x based compact crossover. "Built in NA but sold globally" I think the Theta premium (or "Theta/Epsilon") architecture is slated to be built in NA, and I don't think Lambda is set to be sold very globally, because it's very much US - sized

They don't really have a choice - they're running out of cash fast. GM needs to sell these stakes before they even think about selling GMAC, which is proving difficult to sell anyway. Also the success of GMDAT and GM China must to some extent negate the need for Suzuki and Isuzu as Asian partners. They've got all the cheap production capacity and small car development expertise they need.

I agree with this GM will lose a bit of market share during this, but its the price they are going to have to pay. Whatever emerges from chapter 11 will be a viable competitive business It will be interesting to watc tozota through this ß they dont want a GM bankruptcy - they want GM to limp along for a few more years . Interesting article recently - Delphi is now a critical supplier for Toyota as well.

In terms of international volume it's really simple - good interiors - diesel engines In Europe well over 50% of Mercs and BMWs are diesel. It's not an option - it's simply critical to getting a credible 5 series or S class competitor. And Cadillacs interiors are still so far off the pace it's a joke. They need to be not "better than previous GM" but world class. Apart from that it's going to be a long haul to attract the right dealers, achieve a body of satisfied customers, and then establish a track record of high residuals - that is the key to the luxury market. It took Lexus many years to reach 10,000 sales in Europe.