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William Maley

Industry News: Robotics Expert Believes Kids Born Now Will Not Need A Driver's Licesne

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Technology is moving at a rapid rate and it seems every aspect of our lives are affected by it. Take for example cars, many believe in the future that cars will be fully self-driving and be powered by some sort of alternative powertrain. One person believes that kids born now will not even need a driver's license because of this technology. 

Henrik Christensen, head of UC San Diego’s Contextual Robotics Institute said in an interview with The San Diego Union-Tribune said in about 10 to 15 years, autonomous vehicles will be a regular part of our lives.

“My own prediction is that kids born today will never get to drive a car. Autonomous, driverless cars are 10, 15 years out. All the automotive companies — Daimler, GM, Ford — are saying that within five years they will have autonomous, driverless cars on the road,” said Christensen.

The paper asked Christensen his feelings on future generations not driving, he said,

“I love to drive my car, but it’s a question of how much time people waste sitting in traffic and not doing something else. The average person in San Diego probably spends an hour commuting every day. If they could become more productive, that would be good. With autonomous, driverless cars, we can put twice as many vehicles on the road as we have today, and do it without improving the infrastructure.”

Christensen also believes car ownership will be a thing of the past as well.

“There would be no need to have parking garages in downtown San Diego. In theory, you’d get out of the car and say, ‘Pick me up at 4 PM.’ Long-term — we’re talking 20 years into the future — you’re not even going to own a car. A car becomes a service.”

Do you think Christensen is on the right track or is his head in the clouds?

Source: The San Diego Union-Tribune


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At best, this is slightly optimistic, and even then only for major metropolitan areas. I think we can easily expect such areas to embrace autonomous cars on a large scale, and that they will stand to gain the most of their integration.

 

One thing I keep noticing however, is how ignorant a lot of these 'experts' are to other regions in the country. I don't mean that to be an insult, just an observation. Widespread use of autonomous cars in rural areas with long driving distances, gravel/dirt roads, and subject to other conditions that are not factors in an urban setting is a very long ways off. Much further than 10 years. The logistics of their use just doesn't make sense. That's to say nothing of vehicles' use as workhorses that will further prevent the adoption of this technology.

 

15 years into the future only puts us at 2032. Anyone who thinks autonomous vehicles will account for even half new car sales at that point is way off base, imo. And in those 15 years, public transportation is not going to expand to the point to make POV's in general superfluous. I feel there's way too many people putting way too much stock in autonomous cars' takeover of the market. 

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Totally agree with Frisky on this one, we are 50 - 75 years out at the earliest of having 100% autonomous vehicles. I know I will still be driving in 25-30 years from now and have no plans to go with one of these robot auto's. I love my older auto's and love driving them and being rural, I do not see autonomous auto's working in the rural but for maybe 25% of the time.

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