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Drew Dowdell

Green Shoots?

10 posts in this topic

There was much talk earlier this spring about so called “green shoots” in the economy by talking heads trying to coin a phrase that would stick. Unfortunately for us, they had very little evidence to back up such statements. Housing was still tanking, unemployment was still skyrocketing, and GM and Chrysler were swirling down the toilet of bankruptcy.

I’ve been rather pessimistic on the economy for a while now. As recently as April I was predicting a long drawn out recovery. I also predicted that a second wave of foreclosures coming from a type of mortgage called Option ARMs would start carpet bombing the economy all over again. Well, unlike a certain ex-President of ours, I’m willing to chart a new course when provided with new information.

Here is why I am cautiously optimistic for a near term recovery. I’ll go out on a limb and say that the bottom was sometime in June 2009.

More here

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FWIW I think things are getting more stable.

It will take awhile for things to get back to "good"

What we need now is for Obama, (IMHO the best president in my lifetime) to get to work on long term stuff like energy independence and the environment.

Hopefully things are good enough in 2012 for Obama to be re-elected.

Thanks for posting the link...

Just my two cents.

Chris

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I'm not watching the housing market too closely, but I am seeing an uptick in the tech job market lately, and August is normally not a great time of the year. My contract is thru March, but I may be looking before then, esp. if I leave AZ sooner than later. With my sister considering moving to the east coast (job market for her thing is better there than in the West), I may be moving out and away from the desert horror in the next few months.

Rob

Edited by Cubical-aka-Moltar
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I'm still banking that economy will be in an 'L' for quite a while. I simply don't know how that debt incurred by the US will be managed, and it's gonna be one long slog.

The worst thing though, is when I hear people go on about how they'll hope that in the future, things will be like they 'used to be,' which is odd, because that's what helped lead us to where we are.

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Good luck with the move.

A couple of my buddies in the VW TDI club are working 80+ hours a week and they work in IT, so I would say you may be right about an uptick in IT jobs.

Chris

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If we are beginning to recover, it is already too late for me, I think.

Square one seems to be my immediate destination.

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Thanks.

Full Disclosure: I wrote it.

forgot to put that in the original post.

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The latest 90 day moratorium on foreclosures in California is about to end. This is going to swing the market in CA back to a buyers market because currently, it is a sellers market cause of the lack of homes for sale.

This is all assuming that the Governor does not institute another 90 day stop.

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The latest 90 day moratorium on foreclosures in California is about to end. This is going to swing the market in CA back to a buyers market because currently, it is a sellers market cause of the lack of homes for sale.

This is all assuming that the Governor does not institute another 90 day stop.

I wonder if they will continue Furlough Fridays w/ the state agencies. My sister is a consultant at one in Sacramento and had 3 Fridays off in July.

Rob

Edited by Cubical-aka-Moltar
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I wonder if they will continue Furlough Fridays w/ the state agencies. My sister is a consultant at one in Sacramento and had 3 Fridays off in July.

Rob

Not only will it continue for the foreseeable future, but the courts, county and city governments are now having to contemplate them as well because the new "budget" is robbing all of them of millions of dollars.

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