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    Tesla Hasn't Finalized Model 3 Design


    • It seems Tesla isn't off to a good start with getting the Model 3 out the door

    During their first quarter presentation, Tesla announced that it would be accelerating plans to produce 500,000 vehicles from 2020 to 2018. This in part due to the demand for the recently announced Model 3. This is an ambitious goal to say in the least and one that could haunt Tesla if they don't meet. Already, they might have hit a roadblock.

     

    Reuters reports that Tesla hasn't finalized the design of its new Model 3. During a call with analysts last week, CEO Elon Musk said design is still being worked on. Musk also said it would take another six to nine weeks for various engineering decisions to be finalized. No reason was given as to why Tesla hasn't finalized the design yet.

     

    This affects a number of key parts to getting the Model 3 to production such as the design for parts, finding suppliers, and plans for manufacturing.

     

    “We may experience delays in realizing our projected timelines and cost and volume targets for the production, launch, and ramp of our Model 3 vehicle,” the company wrote in an SEC filing.

     

    "Finalizing the design work, and lining up the suppliers and launching in one and a half years seems not possible," said Barclays analyst Brian Johnson.

     

    Source: Reuters, Car & Driver

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    Yup, so much for the 400,000 or 500,000 presales, if this gets 30,000 delivered in 2018 I will be surprised.

     

    Reality, I bet over half of these become canceled once people can drive the BOLT or Ioniq EV. People will realize, no need to wait for Tesla.

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    It's mainly the interior. For f@#ks sake did people really think that the 17" tablet was really going to stay? The whole dash needs to be scrapped and re-done. 

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    We'll they do have to solve the battery problem since the gigafactory is not in production yet. Fix the current quality issues on the current S & X models plus get parts so they can actually build the darn car.

     

    Wait and see what happens, next 18 months are going to be very interesting for Tesla.

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    The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

    One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

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    The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

    One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

     

    Scroll way down towards the bottom and there is a little more info on the Gigafactory. It's pretty amazing how large it will be and how small what IS there really is in comparison.

     

    "Twenty-five miles east of downtown Reno, Nevada, in the rolling hills south of Interstate 80 sits one of the largest graded construction pads ever made. On this site, Tesla has been busy rapidly constructing a behemoth of a lithium-ion battery factory that will eventually be one of the world’s largest buildings. The fully realized factory is not scheduled to be finished until 2020, but already the structure is big by any measure; it’s currently running 24 hours a day and producing Tesla Powerpacks and Powerwalls. Eventually Tesla will make Model 3 battery packs at this building, dropping the cost of Tesla batteries by 30 percent. Here are some gigafacts to wrap your head around."

    http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-photos-analysis/

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    The gigafactory is in production but not at full production levels. 

    One of the two links provided said it was not in production yet, still building the site unless this is outdated info, but even then, they should be able to ramp better than if the building part is done.

     

    Scroll way down towards the bottom and there is a little more info on the Gigafactory. It's pretty amazing how large it will be and how small what IS there really is in comparison.

     

    "Twenty-five miles east of downtown Reno, Nevada, in the rolling hills south of Interstate 80 sits one of the largest graded construction pads ever made. On this site, Tesla has been busy rapidly constructing a behemoth of a lithium-ion battery factory that will eventually be one of the world’s largest buildings. The fully realized factory is not scheduled to be finished until 2020, but already the structure is big by any measure; it’s currently running 24 hours a day and producing Tesla Powerpacks and Powerwalls. Eventually Tesla will make Model 3 battery packs at this building, dropping the cost of Tesla batteries by 30 percent. Here are some gigafacts to wrap your head around."

    http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-photos-analysis/

     

    Cool, thank you for pointing that out. I took a break and flew through the links and missed this.

     

    Wonder just how many LI cells they are producing now.

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    There are certain parameters WRT customer expectation that Tesla is going to have to meet, traditional or not.

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    +1 to Drew for pointing out an overlooked truth about Tesla. Not your Grandfather's Car Company is it!

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    Musk and his tap dancing.  Rudderless boat

    Sorry Reg...

     

    http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a29134/tesla-model-s-p85d-police-car-lapd/

     

    From the LAPD...

     

    The LAPD has apparently been impressed enough with the Tesla Model S that it's considering using them as police cars. The police department has been testing two high-performance P85D sedans for more than a year.

     

     

    Partly due to its high price, the Model S won't see official duty for a while, but the LAPD already sees its potential in the long run.

    "Is it practical now? No," said Yegiyan. But in "the next three to five years . . . not only will the industry push toward electrification, but prices will drop on vehicles. While that's occurring we'll be in the space learning and contributing to the process."

     

     

    1462986200-lapd-tesla-model-s.png

     

    gallery-1462986275-lapd-bmw-i3.png

     

    "In California, there's pressure from above and there's also a desire on the part of the (electric vehicle) manufacturers to get their vehicles out there," Tom Libby, an analyst at IHS Automotive, told CNBC.

    But don't expect conventional automakers like Ford and Dodge to let Tesla move in on law enforcement fleet sales without a fight. "We are a leader in law enforcement, and we intend to remain the leader," Randy Freiburger, Ford police and ambulance fleet supervisor, told CNBC.

     

     

     

    You folk could poke fun at Musk all you want..

    The guy does not have to do anything, and people flock to his cars...

     

    I think the guy knows what he is doing...I think its the naysayers and the status quo guys that are afraid of the electric storm that is heading our way...trying to find any little flaw they can whether its sales figure estimates or production capacity (it used to be trying to undermine the popularity of an EV or a Tesla but the Model 3 pre-orders muzzled that thought process...to undermine the blitzkrieg that is heading our way...

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    good deal, GM will be at the forefront of that, and will buy all the Tesla scraps.  Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

    Edited by regfootball
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    good deal, GM will be at the forefront of that, and will buy all the Tesla scraps.  Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

    Ha!

     

    Cadillac put the CT8 on hold..

    The Avista is also a project that will eat dust...

    Maybe, the next Regal will get styling cues from it...maybe...

    Think about what that means....

     

    And...if Tesla is scraps...why would GM waste good money for it?

    Aint Voltec and Boltec superior technologies?

     

    Yeah...that is right...GM does not need 400 000 pre-orders for the Bolt....

    Lets see how many Bolts they actually sell versus the Model 3...

    Hell, Ill give you Volt sells too...Lets see if GM could outsell Tesla by 2021 on EVs...

     

    The thing is...Tesla has an electrifying personality that JDN wishes he could sell his sole for for Cadillac...

     

    Sure 500 000 Tesla cars by 2018 is a very tough sell...for many reasons....Tesla logistics alone hamper that number...but dont kid yourself, 500 000 Tesla cars sold annually aint too far off from 2018...they have a strong fan base and following...

     

    I wanna know if anybody in the early 1900s questioned Henri Ford and his visions?

    Henri after all, lost his first company to bear his name...

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

     

    What/where is that word from??

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    It's been proven time again that timeliness matters more than costs for game-changing vehicles.

     

    My bet is that they are project crashing up the butt...but it'll be an expensive proposition. They have an order back log, that is very similar to how capital goods manufacturing companies work. 

     

    Many times such as in aerospace, you end up with concurrency. When the production begins before the technology is fully matured. With respect to how battery tech continues to improve, buying an electric vehicle often times has the decision revolving around whether you have faith that the range will remain competitive in just a few short years.

     

    But again, once you hit a certain range, say 300 miles per charge, and maybe like a 15-20 minute charge time (from a fast charger)....the focus can then be put on cost reduction solely, and increasing infrastructure.

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    balthazar

    Posted (edited) · Report

    I wanna know if anybody in the early 1900s questioned Henri Ford and his visions?

    Henri after all, lost his first company to bear his name...

    Actually, Henry lost his first TWO companies.

    And yes, he was definately 'questioned' but he also had his backers.

     

    Side bar : It took Ford 13 years to hit 500,000 units.

    Tesla is now in its 13th year.

     

    7 years after hitting 500,000 units, Ford reached 2 million. This in an era where people were not predisposed to buying cars, and when there were hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of competing companies, rather than a few dozen.

    Edited by balthazar
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    I see many parallels with FoMoCo and Ford and Tesla and Musk.

     

    http://www.history.com/topics/henry-ford

     

    From the link:

     

    • While working as an engineer for the Edison Illuminating Company in Detroit

    Musk....co-founder of Pay-Pal...

    Both were doing different things before ending up in the car biz...

     

    • built his first gasoline-powered horseless carriage, the Quadricycle, in the shed behind his home. In 1903, he established the Ford Motor Company, and five years later the company rolled out the first Model T

    Musk...started out at Tesla....in 2008, yeah, he didnt start the company, but helped out financially in 2008 when most all other car companies had financial problems in that same time frame...

    Ford lost his companies twice (I thought it was only once) before FoMoCo got off its feet..

    First EV Tesla produced was the Roadster....a body shell from Lotus...

    4-5-6 years later did the Model S arrive...the EV that would revolutionize the world....

    FoMoCo had the Model T....5 years after FoMoCo took off. A car that revolutionized the world....

     

    • In 1896, he completed what he called the “Quadricycle,” which consisted of a light metal frame fitted with four bicycle wheels and powered by a two-cylinder, four-horsepower gasoline engine.
    • Ford sold the Quadricycle in order to continue building other vehicles. He received backing from various investors over the next seven years, some of whom formed the Detroit Automobile Company (later the Henry Ford Company) in 1899.

         (this would be a sidebar...because Tesla learned faster to perfect the EV formula than Ford learned to perfect the automobile formula....sure....one could say that its easy to take an existing automotive formula to  transform that into an EV, especially when the Ford's 1st automobile was engineered in 1896....however, Tesla does not really use that formula, Tesla engineers also, added their ingredients to make the Tesla Model S....sure with the help of old school Detroit, I learned that from Peter DeLorenzo, but I think we should start stopping the question marks surrounding Tesla...)

     

    • A month after the Ford Motor Company was established, the first Ford car—the two-cylinder, eight-horsepower Model A—was assembled at a plant on Mack Avenue in Detroit. At the time, only a few cars were assembled per day, and groups of two or three workers built them by hand from parts that were ordered from other companies.

    This sounds so familiar....oh yeah....TESLA....

     

    The “Tin Lizzie,” as the Model T was known, was an immediate success, and Ford soon had more orders than the company could satisfy. As a result, he put into practice techniques of mass production that would revolutionize American industry, including the use of large production plants; standardized, interchangeable parts; and the moving assembly line. Mass production significantly cut down on the time required to produce an automobile, which allowed costs to stay low. In 1914, Ford also increased the daily wage for an eight-hour day for his workers to $5

     

     

    Well...the Model S did not take off like the Model T, but the Model 3 sure  did...

    The use of large production plants for FoMoCo?

    What about Tesla?

    Oh yeah....the world's largest building producing lithium batteries....to get batteries prie tags low enough so more people could afford EVs...and everything else that requires batteries....that includes iPhones and powerdrills and lawn mowers...

     

    I dont know about the wages part though...hopefully Musk does the same for his workers..

     

    Even the car names are the same.

    Model A, Model T, Model S, Model X

     

    Musk....has accomplished something  in 2016 with the Model 3 that is very different than the Model T in 1916...

     

    The automobile in the turn of the 20th century was a new thing....it was exciting.....it was the horseless carriage...

     

    “If I’d have asked my customers what they wanted, they would have told me ‘A faster horse."
     
    Henry Ford
     
    Sure....many feared the horseless carriage, many were skeptical...but many visionaries had a..vision...and made it happen....Karl Benz, Henry Ford, the Dodge Brothers, Louis Chevrolet, Dunbar Buick, Ransom E. Olds and others....pushed forward..
     
    Tesla...
    Cars are a thing of the past....the horseless carriage has become...a cliche...
    the automobile is no longer a tool for freedom....
    Its a jail term.
    Monthly payments.
    Repairs.
    Traffic Jams.
     
    In 2016, Tesla has managed to excite again...
    And the kicker:
     
    Its a smallish, more or less affordable, 4 door sedan, PEOPLE HAULER for the more or less AVERAGE JOE....
    Not a supercar/hypercar exotic sports car ala Ferrari/Lamborghini....
     
    The second kicker:
    In 2016....Ferraris and Lambos almost fail to excite anymore, that is how tedious the automobile has become. Yet Tesla....has found the formula to get the people roused up for the next big evolution in the horseless carriage  scene...
    Oh....FoMoCo has excited people all over the world a second time....the Mustang for the second time in its history has got people salivating....
     
    Tesla and Ford...yet another thing in common in 2016....
     
    Im sure Tesla will overcome the beautiful dilemma they have to producing all these Model 3s
     
     
     
    France offered Tesla a former nuclear plant to build the Model 3 to help with that huge order..
     
    IRONY:
     
    Americans are HECKLING MUSK AND TESLA WHILE FOREIGN COUNTRIES WANT THEM!!!!
     
    WHAT THE PHOQUE IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE???!!!
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    balthazar

    Posted (edited) · Report

    Well...the Model S did not take off like the Model T, but the Model 3 sure  did…

    You are talking about 2 very different metrics here.

     

    - - - - -

    I personally would like to see Tesla succeed.

     I like the Model S, I think in general it's excellent (tho it's overdue for a re-skin).

    • The Model X is a 5/10 tho- some choices made there that were not the best and quality & production has been mediocre at best to date.

    • Model 3 right now is a complete unknown; design, features, price, production capacity. Impossible to hang future success on just yet.

    • The company's balance sheet is not fiscally well.

     

    All the above certainly may change, just a 'State of the Union' as it is to date. 

     

    In the standings, that's ~

    W : 1, tie : 1, coming to bat...

    Edited by balthazar
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    The Model X...

     

    I think Musk himself admitted he kinda let the hooplah surrounding Tesla and its popularity make poor decisions on it.

    He confessed they over engineered the car.

     

    http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-model-x-not-sure-tesla-will-make-2016-2

     

    • "There was some hubris with the Model X," Musk said. "We over-engineered the car."According to the Tesla CEO, everything from the seals around the windows to the construction of the second-row seats proved to be hurdles.But Musk said the company overcame these issues, which led to a redesign of certain window seals and the insourcing of seat construction.
    • Musk told journalists it was so hard to put together that Tesla probably shouldn't have made it in the first place.

     

    When was the last time we heard from a traditional automobile manufacturer say it how it is and admit to errors?

    Self admittance. Not from a court order...

     

    Tesla self polices itself and learns from their missteps...well, it seems to be this way on the outside....

     

    So...when I read stuff like self tap dancing on a rudderless boat...I kinda get upset...

     

    OK...with that drama outta the way...

     

    Im sure part of their fiscal well being, or lack their of, is because of the high costs of the technology involved.

    And the high costs of constructing the biggest building in the world.

    And then furnishing it with all kinds of very high tech furniture such as robots and sensors and stuff...

    And then single handily making an infrastructure....worldwide..or at least in two countries that I know of... 

     

    And of course cost over runs...which every manufacturer of any kind of product will experience...but especially a start-up. No longer a start-up?

    Whatever I says....the Model S....it may need a skin re-do, it still represents the first real  car produced as a start-up...

    The Ford Model T....took 2 decades to be replaced with very minor exterior details changed in that 2 decade span...I realize that what I just said about the Model T and 2 decades is very open to discussion, but to that I say.....semantics....

     

    The Model 3....is still fresh....

    Its a small step above vapor ware at this point...I agree.

    However, I dont feel comfortable in doubting what Elon Musk has to say about the Model 3 as I doubt that Elon Musk is on the same footing as one called Sergio...

    The Model S, as a first real car Tesla ever produced just about....perfect.

    Relatively flawless...and I repeat...the first ever REAL car Tesla produced, and that is why I say it is flawless.

    The Model X seems to have had the glitzes that a first real attempt at car building should have had....but Elon Musk is fully aware of all that...

     

     

    I also think its foolish to doubt the power that the Tesla brand name holds.

    400 000 people took pre-orders on a Model 3.

    Delays?

    The power of Tesla tells me that MOST of the people will wait for the Model 3 regardless the waiting time.

     

    The Chevrolet Bolt?

    Well, the Tesla brand name for ELECTRIC vehicles is waaaaaay more prestigious and powerful than a Chevrolet Bolt or Volt....and actually, for the short term, a Model S has just as much prestige as a Camaro or Corvette.

    Meaning, a Model 3 has a waiting period?

    Well, when a Chevy guy has to wait for the new Vette or Camaro to come out, and there might be a delay or recall or stop sale, such as it happened with the heat soak issues on the C7 Z06, did those guys run out to buy Ford Mustangs or Porsche Caymans?

     

    No....no they did not!

     

    Model 3 is at bat...will it hit a home run?

    For Tesla's sake, it better at least make contact with the ball...

     

    Like you said though....State of the Union status indeed....

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    Word is GM has a tesla S beater in the works for many thousands less......and possibly the Avista styling.

     

    What/where is that word from??

     

    it was bounced out there on 'another site'  Avista may become an EV.  Avista styling plus EV

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    But....but...what does that car have to do with Tesla, the Model S, X or 3? ....or even the Roadster?

     

    Or are you eluding that Elon Musk will run-a-away with the $400 000 000 Model 3 deposits and hide on Mars?

    Because he has a rocket ship....

    elon-musk.jpg

     

    Because you are forgetting one thing Reg...

    $400 000 000 is a drop in the bucket for what Tesla the company has already invested in to make sure the Model 3 is a sales success and a hit and delivered to its customers...

     

    Starting with..already delivered...several thousand cars already

     

    ev6-609x368.jpg

    Tesla-Model-X-Spy-Shots-14-570x376.png

     

    with many boutiques and service centers all OVER THE WORLD!!!

     

    tesla-service.jpg

    tesla-stores-europe.jpg

     

     

     

     

     

    Tesla%20Motors%20Supercharger.png

     

    Supercharging stations...all over the world, financed mostly by themselves

     

    tesla-supercharger-network-may-2015-001.

     

    Gigafactory2.jpg

     

     

    As opposed to 1 dealership for Elio Motors from that pic you posted!

     

     

    Its OK....maybe Elon and Tesla chose the wrong country produce its cars and batteries...

    Maybe Elon should have gone.....lets say....to France instead...

     

    This way...some of you Americans could continue to whine that there are no manufacturing jobs left in the USA...

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    I am VERY happy that we have TESLA. Do I believe it will stay independant? No, but if it was not for Tesla, then we would not have the BOLT, Leaf, etc.

     

    Someone had to finally kick the bully's, aka the biggest auto companies in the nuts to finally move off petro.

     

    BOLT, Tesla 3 I say YES! :metal:

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