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  • David
    David

    Will Competition Destroy Tesla?

      It is hard to judge a company by one month of auto sales let alone two months, but when you have 3 months or more in a market that had no competition and now does, dropping near the bottom in sales should make any CEO question what needs to be done to improve sales. Norway with 60.4% of new auto sales being EV is becoming a struggle for Tesla and Ford is the latest to show them up!

    Norway has been in the news lately and not just a little but across a wide range of news organizations. Norway has been very embracing of the move to EVs supporting just about every version that has come out from small EVs that would remind one of a Golf cart and illegal on the roads in the US to the luxury level of Tesla with the X and S auto's.

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    Norway has even been leading the world in the change over of their countries taxi fleet to EVs. One benefit to the taxi owner is the ability to write off half of the auto cost in the first year and the rest in the second year as long as the taxi travels over 100,000 kilometers per year. This allows private taxi drivers to purchase their own luxury ride to use as their work tool every day.

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    Tesla was the first to build out a very extensive network of charging infrastructure to support their auto's allowing owners to drive their EVs in any type of weather even very cold snowy winter.

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    As anyone in sales would know and to help everyone else understand, single month sales, and quarterly sales sales cannot always clearly show a trend about the success of a company. Even bi-yearly sales numbers while getting close to be considered a trend by some is not enough to state that a company has been a long term success.

    Tesla ever since they started to sell auto's in Norway back in 2009 with just 13 sold has pretty much had a captured market to themselves especially since Norway has been trying various ways to push a clean green agenda going back into the 1990's. Tesla sales spiked in 2019 at 18,798 EVs sold before plummeting as VW introduced the much more affordable ID.4 and other luxury makers such as Audi with their e-tron came on the market in 2020.

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    As per the jalopnik story, Tesla did not sell many auto's in association with other auto choices till recently making the sample size very small in auto markets around the world. Norway then becomes an even more important picture on EV sales as a country that was in many ways the first to embrace EVs, will be the first to phase out all new ICE auto sales starting January 1st 2025. Currently contrast Diesel auto's that sold in 2011 with a 75.7% market share to only 8.6% market share in 2020.  A market where there are more EV options at various price points than any other market has transformed their auto market.

    Lately, Tesla sales have not been that great and Ford Motor Company is off to a hot start with their Mustang Mach-e. Yes one can contribute this to the Ford EV being a new model but keep in mind that a year ago new auto sales had BEVs make up 43.1% of sales, this year, BEVs are averaging 60.4% of new auto sales with Ford having sold 1,384 Mach-e in May for a 10% share of Norways auto market. Toyota RAV4 hybrid is in second place and Skoda's electric Enyaq is in third. Currently in the top ten EVs sold in Norway, Tesla is coming in at 6th place.

    Let's let the monthly numbers speak for what is being sold in Norway:

    May 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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    April 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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    March 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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    We then have no numbers, but a list was produced of the top 10 auto sales and unlike March, Tesla was in 8th place for auto sales in February:

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    The clear observation is that Tesla is NOT the dominant auto company in Norway and a concern for the CEO and company one would think. Clearly now that real competition is showing up, Tesla is going to have to address concerns about fit n finish, service, warranty issues, etc.

    In 2019 Tesla dominated the market for BEVs:

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    Per Norways largest news covering the auto industry, December pretty much saved the year, but even then shows some very interesting changes from 2019.

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    This on top of the full 2020 year showing that Tesla is only #6 in auto sales in Norway.

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    At this point, Tesla needs to deliver on a low end solution of BEVs for Norway and the world if they are to remain competitive and survive it would seem. This would be the time for a Model 2 and even maybe 1 to come out of Tesla giving low end solutions for auto buyers that currently cannot afford higher priced auto's.

    Ford Is Beating Tesla In One Of The Most EV-Saturated Markets In The World (jalopnik.com)

    • Norway: Tesla car sales 2009-2020 | Statista

    Ford's electric Mustang tops Norway car sales in May | Reuters

    Ford's electric Mustang tops Norway car sales in May | Nasdaq

    Historic December saved car sales | Dn

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    19 minutes ago, David said:

    So MB DOES NOT state it follows the DIN EN 1822 standard as it is not stated anywhere on their web sites. Motoring has never had a problem quoting false data also, so while the 1822 standard is a Hepa Standard for Europe.

    EN 1822 Standard. Absolute Filters (EPA, HEPA and ULPA) | Venfilter Air filters and industrial ventilation

    Again, MB does not state it as such. The ZG 250-1 certification seems to be a made up certification by MB and Anyone can state their product filter removes a high percentage of particles, but that is an OPEN book on how they test their own product.

    Where is the independent testing to back this up?

    As an OPTIONAL add on, that also means the whole ventilation system is compromised so 99.65% is pretty much impossible to enforce.

    Mercedes says over 99.65% of particles, I'll take their word for it.  And that matches Tesla's 99.7%, and we know Tesla is more likely to round up numbers than Mercedes is.  

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    1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

    Mercedes says over 99.65% of particles, I'll take their word for it.  And that matches Tesla's 99.7%, and we know Tesla is more likely to round up numbers than Mercedes is.  

    If MB is so great and reliable, then why do they not post their actual testing and certification of the process?

    Why is there no details of what 99.65% of what particles?

    What size Hepa filter is this?

    So many unanswered questions with a fictional certification.

    Tesla at least posts their testing and Hepa Filter size.

    Putting the Tesla HEPA Filter and Bioweapon Defense Mode to the Test | Tesla

    image.png

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    8 minutes ago, David said:

    If MB is so great and reliable, then why do they not post their actual testing and certification of the process?

    Why is there no details of what 99.65% of what particles?

    What size Hepa filter is this?

    So many unanswered questions with a fictional certification.

    Tesla at least posts their testing and Hepa Filter size.

    Putting the Tesla HEPA Filter and Bioweapon Defense Mode to the Test | Tesla

    image.png

    23.5 inches by 16.2 inches and 1.6 inches thick, 10 liter volume

    https://insideevs.com/news/501198/mercedes-benz-eqs-world-premiere/

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    15 minutes ago, balthazar said:

    It's a HEPA filter, does anyone really care about this??
    Every time you open a door or the windows, every time you enter the car with shoes, clothing, hair; air quality is rendered moot.

    They care in China where the air quality is terrible.  And maybe Los Angeles or NYC where congestion is bad, outside of that probably not.

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    Nah...its about chemical warfare.

    And ze Germans (Mercedes) know a thing or two about that from their recent but past history... ☠️  

    8)

    Sorry @David  

    Stay safe everyone! 

    Get your HEPA filters to compliment your masks now!   😷

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    10 hours ago, smk4565 said:

    They care in China where the air quality is terrible.  And maybe Los Angeles or NYC where congestion is bad, outside of that probably not.

    Maybe you missed the point there. You still have to get out of your car in those places. 

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    15 hours ago, smk4565 said:

     No passenger car could run 2 hours around a track near redline 80% of the time without everything over heating and the engine probably dying, let alone do that in 7 races, 7 qualifying sessions and 21 practice sessions.  

    Which includes AMG's street cars... 

    But in all seriousness, I don't think ANY vehicle's engine and transmission could NOT withstand that. I'm almost certain brakes on all of those vehicles will fail before blowing an engine or transmission up. 

    A crazy air filtration system is just a gimmick to advertise something "neat". I really don't see the point of it, but I guess it's a neat thing... 

    16 hours ago, David said:

    Agree that is a big issue and goes with the bunker style of you cannot see out of the auto very well, just sucks along with the overall jelly bean look.

    I don't even really think it is bunker-style as the side windows clearly have a lot of window. 

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    16 hours ago, David said:

    Is it the distraction of solar panels, Wall Power, Space X, etc., etc., etc.,

    SpaceX is it's own private company and financially has nothing to do with Tesla. 

    The Tesla solar panels and Wall Power are part of Tesla though. 

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    24 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

    SpaceX is it's own private company and financially has nothing to do with Tesla. 

    The Tesla solar panels and Wall Power are part of Tesla though. 

    Yes Space X is it's own company run by the same CEO as Tesla, so Yes it does matter as he is distracted on how to live on Mars and send people there. His focus is NOT on Tesla only, just like the solar panels or wall power. He is a distracted CEO that is hurting IMHO not helping Tesla as much as he should be.

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    17 minutes ago, David said:

    Yes Space X is it's own company run by the same CEO as Tesla, so Yes it does matter as he is distracted on how to live on Mars and send people there. His focus is NOT on Tesla only, just like the solar panels or wall power. He is a distracted CEO that is hurting IMHO not helping Tesla as much as he should be.

    I don't think there is some crazy "distraction level" that's making Tesla non-profitable. He's not there doing day-to-day activities. He's strictly making company-wide decisions. 

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    3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

    I don't think there is some crazy "distraction level" that's making Tesla non-profitable. He's not there doing day-to-day activities. He's strictly making company-wide decisions. 

    We will see as 2025 is not that far off when clearly 100's of BEVs are going to be on the market and we will know then if Tesla can survive on it's own or not. I am thinking not!

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    1 hour ago, David said:

    We will see as 2025 is not that far off when clearly 100's of BEVs are going to be on the market and we will know then if Tesla can survive on it's own or not. I am thinking not!

    What happens in 2025 that "we will see"? Do you really think they'll be gone in only 3.5 years because Musk is a CEO of SpaceX as well? 

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    1 hour ago, balthazar said:

    1. Tesla will still be here in ‘25.
    2. There won’t be ‘200+’ BE’s on the market by ‘25.

    According to the current released numbers, here is what each auto maker says they will have on the global market in BEVs by 2025 to 2030:

    • Honda / Acura - Using GM Ultium batteries and powertrain - 2 in 2024, 8 by 2030
    • BMW / Mini / Rolls Royce - 12 models by 2025, full lineup electric for all brands by 2030
    • Ford / Lincoln - 8 models by 2025, all electric by 2035
    • gm - Chevrolet/GMC/Buick/Cadillac - 30 models by 2025, world wide fully electric on all brands by 2035
    • Volkswagen - 50 models by 2025, world wide fully electric by 2030
    • Audi - 5 models by 2025, pure electric by 2035
    • Bentley - 8 models by 2025, pure bev only by 2030
    • Nissan - 12 models by 2025, electric only by 2035
    • Toyota - 6 models by 2025, others as demand increases
    • Subaru - 6 models by 2025, full hybrid in all product lines by 2035, possible all electric by 2050
    • Hyundai/Kia/Genesis - 23 models by 2025
    • Volvo - 8 models by 2025, all electric by 2030
    • Mazda - 3 models by 2025, all electric by 2050
    • Daimler/Mercedes-Benz/Smart - 6 models by 2025, electric only by 2040
    • Mitsubishi - 6 models by 2025, all hybrid by 2025, pure electric by 2050
    • Stellantis - 100 models by 2025, all electric by 2030
    • Maserati - 6 models by 2025, all electric by by 2030
    • Jaguar Land Rover - 12 models by 2025, electric only by 2035
    • Tesla - 6 models by 2025 not including commercial products. Company pure EV already
    • Rivian - 3 by 2025, future products undefined at this time
    • Lordstown - 1 model by 2022, undefined for the future, latest legal problems could imply the company might close
    • Lucid - 2 models by 2022, 5 by 2025, undefined past 2025 at this time
    • Bollinger - 1 model in 2022, 3 by 2025, undefined past 2025
    • Geely - New EV division of the parent company, to use their Sea EV Platform to produce 2 models by 2022, 6 models by 2025 with global sales.
    • 100 pure electric start ups in China, what if any actually make it out of the country, but many choices across Asia.

    These Automakers Now Plan an All-Electric Future - The Detroit Bureau

    Stellantis reveals key details of electrification plans - electrive.com

    Volvo Confirms All EV Plan by 2030 with Internet Only Sales | MotorWeek

    Here Are Automakers' Plans for Adding More Electric Vehicles to Their Lineups - Consumer Reports

    Plus got the numbers from the various auto companies press releases on their web site.

    This list which I know is not complete, implies that 327 models of BEVs will be on sale globally by 2025 with more un-identified brands / startups. I think Tesla will have a challenge on their hands from the largest OEMs, not to mention smaller startups especially in China.

    47 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

    What happens in 2025 that "we will see"? Do you really think they'll be gone in only 3.5 years because Musk is a CEO of SpaceX as well? 

    Tesla will not be gone, but I question if they will be the company they are today, especially independent. 

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    3 hours ago, balthazar said:

    You. Said. "by 2025".
     
    You're doin' an 'smk'.

    LOL, No, I am not. I only added up the auto's they say would be out by 2025 and that was 327 BEVs out by 2025. The number is higher if I added in the other auto's they say they will have by 2030 or later. I also did not take the time to post the numbers for past 2025 as I focused on the BEVs that they are saying they will have out by 2025. 

    Call me info overload if you want, but wanted to clearly state what each vendor I listed was saying about by 2025 which is the focus on BEVs right now and long term plans as I believe that those later dates for going pure EV as you have stated will get pushed out for some, pulled in for others.

    It was an interesting exercise in looking at all their websites for press releases about BEV releases and searching for it on the internet.

    A very interesting listing I believe.

     

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