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    David

    FAILURE 2.0 Toyota Scrambling to Reboot EVs

      Toyota's e-TNGA electric platform has been a bust with the buyback / recall of the bZ4X crossover, what is Toyota doing now?

    October 2022 was the startup again of production of the bZ4X as well as the announcement of the bZ3, the second EV in the bZ series. This second electric sedan was jointly developed between Toyota, BYD and FAW Toyota of China. Many would have thought that Toyota was finally on the bandwagon for moving forward with EVs as they had announced 30 new EVs to be produced and released by 2030. This in comparison to companies like Hyundai or GM where they have committed to having EVs replace full portfolios by 2025.

    So why then is a reboot in order for Toyota?

    Per an exclusive story released by REUTERS, "Exclusive: Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla"

    We need to take a few steps back first to understand a little history. The 1970's and the world's first oil issues with the Arab countries forced America to change almost overnight from gas guzzling V8's to 4 banging econoboxes for autos and Japan was new on the scene with fuel thrifty little cars and trucks.

    This actually began in the 1960's when two individuals, W. Edwards Demming (renowned statistician and management expert) and Peter F. Drucker (father of modern management thinking) offered American manufacturing a concept of better productions through lean manufacturing and a transformation of management to get greater innovation, higher productivity and quality, joy in work and better jobs overall. At America's peril U.S. companies ignored these two visionaries and they left for Japan where Toyota's management system was designed based on their ideas. To quote Shoichiro Toyoda, Honorary Chairman and director of Toyota: "There is not a day I don't think about what they meant to us. Deming's 14 Points is the core of our management."

    Lean manufacturing is the Deming and Drucker core to how Toyota has become the most efficient manufacture of autos to this day.

    So, one can understand the thought on this, here is the core of these two men's thinking.

    Topic of Intersection

    Dr. Drucker

    Dr. Deming

    Fear as a motivator

     

    Modern behavioural psychology has demonstrated that great fear coerces, while remnants of fear cause only resentment and resistance.

    Lesser fears destroy motivation.

    Drive out fear, so that everyone may work effectively for the company. Fear impairs performance and causes numbers to be padded.

    Management by drives and quotas

    Many managements fail to draw the obvious conclusion that drives [such as cost cutting, then inventory cutting, then human relations] are after all, not the way to get things done.

    Quotas are a barrier to improvement. Eliminate numerical quotas for the work force. Eliminate numerical goals for people in management.

    Innovation

    Inherent in the managerial task is entrepreneurship: making the business of tomorrow. Inherent in the task is innovation. Innovation is above all, top-management attitude and practices.

    Innovation in a business enterprise must therefore always be market-focused.

    Actually, "What is our business?" is almost always a difficult question and the right answer is usually anything but obvious.

    Innovation, the foundation of the future, cannot thrive unless the top management have declared unshakable commitment to quality and productivity.

    The moral is that it is necessary to innovate, to predict the needs of the customer.

    A good question for anyone in business to ask is: What business are we in? What product or service would help our customers more?

    Productivity

    Productivity means that balance between all factors of production that will give the greatest output for the smallest effort.

    Economic performance that is achieved by mismanaging work and workers is illusory and actually destructive of capital even in the fairly short run.

    To leave knowledge skill underutilized is impoverishment of society and individual alike.

    Production [and service] should be viewed as a system.

    The improvement of quality begets naturally and inevitably improvement of productivity...this transfers waste of man-hours into good product and better service. The result is a chain reaction—lower costs, better competitive position, happier people on the job, jobs and more jobs.

    Variation

    To design a control system, one has to think through what is routine and what is exception.

    The traditional American system is misapplication of control. It subordinates the routine to the exception.

    There are two mistakes frequently made:

    1. To react to an outcome as if came from a special cause, when actually it came from common causes of variation.
    2. To treat an outcome as if it came from common causes of variation, when actually it came from a special cause.

    Learning

     

    Worker responsibility for the job, work groups, and output cannot be expected, let alone demanded until the foundations of productive work, feedback information, and continuous learning have been established.

    The fault is in the system, not in the men.

    I should estimate that in my experience most troubles and most possibilities for improvement add up to proportions something like this:

    --94% belong to the system, (common causes) which are the responsibility of management.

    --6% special causes

    Psychology of leadership

    Management by drive [such as a theme of the month] is a sure sign of confusion. It is an admission of incompetence. It is a sign that management does not think.

    To make a living is no longer enough. Work also has to make a life.

     

    Transformation to the new philosophy of management will result in joy in work, joy in learning.

    The result will in time be greater innovation, expansion of market, greater material reward for everyone. Everyone will win; no losers.

    Use of rewards to motivate

    ...watch lest the compensation system reward the wrong behavior, emphasize the wrong results, and direct people away from performance for the common good.

    Rewards motivate people to work for rewards (quoting Alfie Kohn). A show of appreciation may mean far more than monetary reward.

    At this point, Toyota was moving into very efficient manufacturing processes with modern management training that would make teamwork between management and assembly line workers a success for all.

    Fast Forward 6 Decades and now you have Toyota, stuck in that past, still doing the same thing they have done over and over but with a twist. Toyota moved forward with Hybrids showing the world you could have very efficient autos, but this is also where the path to the future diverges. Toyota moved into Hydrogen as the fuel of the future where they would continue to have mass produced auto's that would have hybrid systems that ran on Hydrogen. 

    Another company based in California at the time called Tesla believed electric vehicles was the future. EVs was the way to go and with it a cleaner way to live with autos that were less complex and less toxic liquids that had to be used to run. Tesla not only won this battle of EV versus Hydrogen but was showing the way by allowing a large set of their patents to be used globally to get others to build EVs.

    Toyota then corrected their course to embrace EVs with a plan to have 30 EVs out around the globe by 2030 as launched in 2020 and with their first EV the bZ4X being released on their complex eTNGA electric platform. This was supposed to support this modern portfolio that was shown off by Toyota.

    This was supposed to be a very efficient future platform to standardize the whole company on globally for the 21st century.

    eTNGA electric platform

    This is where the big problem lay in that this is still based on traditional ICE production of many parts to build an auto and Tesla was not sitting still in how they produced EVs.

    Tesla was the first company to move to MEGA Cast parts and this is what has destroyed this second change of course for Toyota as the eTNGA platform is based on building many little parts into an auto, still very complex and time intensive at a time that Tesla has reduced costs by using Mega Casting.

    They Model Y went from a 70 piece hand assembled rear end to a single piece by way of Mega Casting.

    The physical pieces look like this:

    70 piece assembled unit

    Mega Cast Unit

    Now that you have been brought up to speed on why this is a Reboot of Toyota's EV plans are that four individuals per the REUTERS story talked on how Toyota is allowing into production those autos, bZ4X and bZ3 to move forward as they have halted all other EVs due to the fact that Tesla is more profitable and efficient compared to Toyota's eTNGA platform of old-world thinking.

    Internally at Toyota, there is a proposal under review that would make a dramatic shift for Toyota and rewrite their $38 Billion dollar EV rollout plan to better compete with Tesla and GM who has just started to use Mega Cast in their EVs.

    An internal working group at Toyota has been charged to outline plans for improvements to the existing EV platform or if needed a new architecture these four individuals have stated. Current work on the 30 EV projects announced last December 2021 has been suspended. This includes according to REUTERS the documents they were allowed to see that included the Toyota Compact Cruiser Crossover and the battery-electric Crown autos.

    Toyota has committed to be carbon neutral and to achieve this, the current programs will not allow Toyota to achieve this and as they work with their range of partners and suppliers, it will be essential to initially slow the work on EVs to allow Toyota to put in place what is needed to make EV manufacturing more efficient as industry-wide EV sales run past Toyota's earlier projections.

    Green investors and environmental groups have argued that Toyota, once a darling of environmentalists for their hybrids has been slow to embrace the EV revolution and ignored cleaner ways of doing business due to an outdated thinking from the 60's.

    Even the Deming and Drucker groups have moved on from where Toyota is today as Toyota in this internal review that was triggered by younger engineers and executives has realized that Toyota is losing the factory cost war to Tesla on EVs and other legacy OEMs that have embraced changes such as Mega Casting.

    Toyota's plan was that EVs would not take off for 2 to 3 decades and the eTNGA platform could be built alongside ICE autos and hybrids on the same assembly line. This was based on Toyota selling 3.5 million EVs by 2030 a year or 1/3rd of their global production to stay competitive according to these internal sources.

    EVs are now on pace to replace 50% of global auto production by 2030 at a pace that Toyota is not ready to deal with nor the industry-wide investments that now total $1.2 trillion dollars by 2030.

    According to these four internal sources, Shigeki Terashi, Toyota's former chief competitive officer is the person now leading this Toyota EV review team. Terashi was contacted by REUTERS for comment, and he declined to comment at this time.

    According to the internal sources, Mr. Terashi team is designated BR or Business Revolution group which has only been used twice, once in the 1960's and again in the 1990's as Toyota went through internal revolution in changing business to increase profits and growth.

    This BR team is looking at how to fix the eTNGA platform in the short term to be profitably competitive with Tesla but retire it for an all-new EV dedicated platform that takes into account efficient processes like Mega Casting. This new EV platform would not be ready for 3 to 5 years as why a fix to eTNGA is needed.

    Areas of improvement to be made is a massive change in how thermal management is done. Tesla has already moved to heat pumps and a very efficient way to manage the temp of the battery pack and the internal cabin area. On top of this is the need to simplify and reduce the size and weight of an EV battery pack which are currently being made by Denso and Aisin for Toyota. 

    A decade ago, when Toyota took a financial stake in Tesla and the two collaborated on battery-electric technology which was used in the RAV4 Hybrid, many of Toyota's engineers believed that Tesla technology was no threat to Toyota with the attitude of "There was not much to learn" Toyota concluded in 2014 and Toyota sold their stake in Tesla in 2017.

    Today, 2022, Toyota now recognizes that as the Worlds Biggest Automaker, they have been surpassed in factory efficiency as Tesla is the new benchmark for EV manufacturing costs and this marks a major reversal from 2014.

    Toyota much like many other Asian, European and American auto companies now find themselves playing catch up to Tesla and having to reboot their EV plans to take new age thinking again into account on how to build EVs far more efficiently and cheaper.

    Tesla has today already informed the world that their goal is a 3-piece base frame that allows for various battery pack sizes in the middle, add on the front and rear piece and then the body panels allowing a very efficient build of an EV.

    With Texas having taken delivery of a 130 ton Mega Cast, they have not only been producing the rear sections but have also started to produce front sections having Tesla on track to build a 3 piece platform for their auto's in 2023.

    Model Y front end cast.

    Toyota brought out the Prius Hybrids and believed that Hydrogen was the future. Hydrogen lost out for many reasons and Toyota had to reboot to get EVs going using processes they have honed to perfection some would say from the 1960's to today with the eTNGA platform. Now realizing they are losing out big time in profitability and simplicity of auto building to Tesla, reboot 2 is under way for making a short-term fix to eTNGA and for a long-term platform that will be competitive against Tesla and GM who have moved to Mega Casting as just one process of building better EVs.

    Toyota today is now rebooting again on EVs and it will be interesting to see if they can catch up to keep their crown as the largest global auto builder or if it is lost to someone else who never had it or might have lost it but could take it back.

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    Short answer: Toyota a few years back is GM in the early 1970s, at least in terms of complacency.  Unlike GM back then, Toyota did not stay complacent. 

    I have never understood why Toyota went with hydrogen when EVs are the future in the first place.  Yes, Toyota is playing catch up.  Will they succeed in the EV race against Tesla and the other legacy automakers competing in the EV space? Who knows?  Failure is still the greatest teacher, and it sounds like Toyota is listening (maybe).

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    Personally, I think the VERY long term solution will be hydrogen but I don't think we are anywhere close to that yet. It is, by far, the most sustainable energy source. They just need to figure out all of the...well...everything still. 

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    4 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

    Personally, I think the VERY long term solution will be hydrogen but I don't think we are anywhere close to that yet. It is, by far, the most sustainable energy source. They just need to figure out all of the...well...everything still. 

    I will agree in a limited scope on Hydrogen and this is why,

    Energy, still takes 10 times more energy to produce a gallon of Hydrogen making it an unsustainable energy source especially for small form factor like autos.

    The next issue is as follows, molecular size of H2. It is the smallest possible stable molecule, hence the ability for it to escape through even the smallest of tiniest gaps in storage devices and this does not take into account the natural leakage that over time leak out through all the various materials used to store it and transport it to be burnt in an engine. The higher the pressure, the more that leaks out.

    The next problem is the cost of the one metal that is able to keep most of the hydrogen where it needs to be and efficiently use hydrogen as a fuel source. Platinum, this is why the Toyota, Honda and GM Hydrogen autos were all lease as the amount of platinum in those auto's made them more expensive than what they had to be sold at.

    Another issue is due to the explosive nature on top of leakage, transporting Hydrogen in bulk is not feasible, as to why the few Hydrogen fueling stations had big expensive equipment on site to make the hydrogen as it was needed to fuel.

    Now that we have covered why Hydrogen autos will not happen, let's take a look at where it MIGHT work.

    • Trains
    • Semi class 8 trucks
    • Planes

    Why these three items one might ask, easy they are the least fuel-efficient engines, but they move massive amount of people and especially products and usually it is from consistent ports to warehouses, major distribution points. As such, you could have trains and long-distance Class 8 trucks that could be electric propelled, but Hydrogen generator electricity supplied.

    Planes is another place due to how Hydrogen helps with lifting the heavy plane and freight and having an engine that would burn Hydrogen producing water and oxygen out the exhaust up high would actually help the climate and seed clouds with water vapor.

    Boeing, Lockheed, Airbus, BAE are all working on planes with Hydrogen engines.

    This is actually a well-done page on Hydrogen powered planes. Hydrogen-powered aircraft - Wikipedia

    Trains are in the news too. Coradia iLint: The world's first hydrogen passenger trains | CNN Travel

    Since 2017, we have had much research done into Hydrogen powered Class 8 trucks. Still, none are in mass production as they are still testing in limited use cases.

    Kenworth To Build Class 8 Hydrogen Fuel Cell and CNG-Electric Hybrid Drayage Trucks - Trucks.com

    Cummins, Navistar to develop hydrogen fuel cell-powered Class 8 truck (fleetequipmentmag.com)

    Toyota's fuel cell-powered Class 8 truck is going into service in LA - CNET

    Hyzon Class 8 Freightliner | Zero Emission, Hydrogen-Powered Vehicle - Hyzon Motors |

    SAE actually has defined specs now on Hydrogen Class 8 Trucks.

    Hydrogen technology commercial trucks (sae.org)

     

    Hope you can understand my point on why hydrogen autos for personal use will never happen, but in commercial space it has a place.

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    All of those reasons are why I said it is a VERY long-term solution and there are so many things that need to be sorted out before it can efficiently be used. 

    I never said it would be feasible in the next 5, 10, or 20 years. But, I still believe it will be the very long-term solution. 

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    @ccap41 interesting thinking on this about Toyota, this fits Mercedes very well as their electric platform they are using is a 400V, not the 800 V platform that others are using and no Mega Casting as it was designed to be built on the same assembly lines as the ICE autos.

    I think Mercedes will have a hard time once they sell to the badge snobs in getting conquest sales when they are more expensive for nothing more special than their badge. 

    I do think Toyota is listening and watching and realizes that they have to do a major revolution change, not an evolution change.

    Mercedes, I am not so sure is paying attention like Toyota and while they talk about their next generation EV platform out in 2025, I wonder if it will take into account Mega Casting and efficiency or lean manufacturing. The unions have hit hard about not losing jobs. Yet Tesla makes their EVs with far less hands than just about anyone right now.

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    20 minutes ago, David said:

    Mercedes, I am not so sure is paying attention like Toyota and while they talk about their next generation EV platform out in 2025, I wonder if it will take into account Mega Casting and efficiency or lean manufacturing. The unions have hit hard about not losing jobs. Yet Tesla makes their EVs with far less hands than just about anyone right now.

    "Rakoto, Senior Engagement Manager – Global Automotive Practice Leader, and Ling, Senior Analyst – Automotive Knowledge Manager, note that Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Volkswagen are among the OEMs following Tesla’s lead in the use of mega-castings, in spite of the industry’s limited experience with the technology."

    https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

    After reading a bit about mega castings, the worry is if there is even the slightest damage, the vehicle is a total loss. It sounds like companies are going to get exactly what they want and that's disposable vehicles. 

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    4 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

    "Rakoto, Senior Engagement Manager – Global Automotive Practice Leader, and Ling, Senior Analyst – Automotive Knowledge Manager, note that Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Volkswagen are among the OEMs following Tesla’s lead in the use of mega-castings, in spite of the industry’s limited experience with the technology."

    https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

    After reading a bit about mega castings, the worry is if there is even the slightest damage, the vehicle is a total loss. It sounds like companies are going to get exactly what they want and that's disposable vehicles. 

    Two ways to look at this, 

    First is higher insurance as your right, more common than not, an auto will be scrapped if in an accident beyond minor visual damage.

    Flip side is that if they are built like Tesla, 3 Mega Castings, if the damage is just to the front or back, it might make a bigger salvage business as people who like projects I can see buying up, replacing the core Mega Cast section and rebuild the auto to get it back to functional.

    Interesting times for sure and I am glad to hear that the Germans are paying attention to Tesla, but to what extent as I would have expected Mercedes to then have mega casting by default at 800 V when they started their EQ portfolio rather than now having to upgrade.

    Interesting times for sure.

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    Mega Casting is a great idea because fewer parts make it easier and cheaper to manufacture.  Repairs may well be an issue though.

    Assuming Tesla stays #1 in EVs (Elon Musk aside), who will be #2 or #3 in 2030 in the EV game?  Who will sell more, and who will get higher ATPs on their EVs?

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    4 hours ago, David said:

    Two ways to look at this, 

    First is higher insurance as your right, more common than not, an auto will be scrapped if in an accident beyond minor visual damage.

    Flip side is that if they are built like Tesla, 3 Mega Castings, if the damage is just to the front or back, it might make a bigger salvage business as people who like projects I can see buying up, replacing the core Mega Cast section and rebuild the auto to get it back to functional.

    Interesting times for sure and I am glad to hear that the Germans are paying attention to Tesla, but to what extent as I would have expected Mercedes to then have mega casting by default at 800 V when they started their EQ portfolio rather than now having to upgrade.

    Interesting times for sure.

    I work as an estimator for a car insurance company and I think for sure any of these mega cast cars will be totaled if wrecked and the cast is damaged.  Although that isn’t too different from if frame rails, subframe or inner quarter panels are damaged now most of the time the car is totaled because any of those jobs gets into 50+ hour repairs plus the cost of the parts and materials and headlights are really expensive now.  
     

    On the salvage side, Mercedes get the best salvage return, the newer stuff easily over 50% their value and even at 10+ years old over 40%.  Toyotas usually get over 40% unless they are old and EV’s are usually in the 40% range while an average car is like 20%.

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    The Toyota Corolla is the #1 selling vehicle in the world and the Toyota RAV4 is #2.  Each do over 1 million sales per year.   All Toyota has to do is build cars that look the same with the same interior as the Corolla and RAV4 on an EV platform.  That shouldn’t be too hard, they already know what buyers want.  You don’t need to experiment with funky designs and gloss black body cladding.

    And Toyota knows manufacturing probably better than anyone, they can figure out EVs and ICE running on the same line, others do it.

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    16 hours ago, smk4565 said:

    The Toyota Corolla is the #1 selling vehicle in the world and the Toyota RAV4 is #2.  Each do over 1 million sales per year.   All Toyota has to do is build cars that look the same with the same interior as the Corolla and RAV4 on an EV platform.  That shouldn’t be too hard, they already know what buyers want.  You don’t need to experiment with funky designs and gloss black body cladding.

    And Toyota knows manufacturing probably better than anyone, they can figure out EVs and ICE running on the same line, others do it.

    Normally I would have to agree with you if EVs was not in the equation as Toyota has perfected the Lean Manufacturing process that America was late to embrace as well as Europe.

    Yet as the whole reason for this post was that Toyota is having to reboot. The whole honor do not lose face is what has led Toyota to this mess right now as they embraced Hydrogen which will never happen, I believe in the personal auto space.

    The rubber stamp upper management failed the Executives in not pointing out what Tesla was doing now rather than basing it on a decade old interaction with Tesla. This misstep is not a kiss of death, but this can very well lead a company to fall from the top #1 space as they play catch up and the executives are now battling between the oldest ones that feel what they have is still the way to go and the younger ones that have setup this group that is looking at changing the way things are done.

    If Toyota takes 3 to 5 years to get a Mega Cast pure EV platform in place, GM, Kia, Hyundia, Ford and VW will kill them as they all have Mega Cast platforms up and running now as they move to get multiple products out by 2025. We are at the end of 2022 and they are supposed to release a report at the start of 2023, approvals and politics inside Toyota will take place and at the earliest, I can see them start on the new Mega Cast platform starting late 2023 or early 2024, so if just 3 years, that puts Toyota on track for a profitable Mega cast platform in production in 2027, 2 years behind many others that will have multiple products out.

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    8 hours ago, David said:

    Normally I would have to agree with you if EVs was not in the equation as Toyota has perfected the Lean Manufacturing process that America was late to embrace as well as Europe.

    Yet as the whole reason for this post was that Toyota is having to reboot. The whole honor do not lose face is what has led Toyota to this mess right now as they embraced Hydrogen which will never happen, I believe in the personal auto space.

    The rubber stamp upper management failed the Executives in not pointing out what Tesla was doing now rather than basing it on a decade old interaction with Tesla. This misstep is not a kiss of death, but this can very well lead a company to fall from the top #1 space as they play catch up and the executives are now battling between the oldest ones that feel what they have is still the way to go and the younger ones that have setup this group that is looking at changing the way things are done.

    If Toyota takes 3 to 5 years to get a Mega Cast pure EV platform in place, GM, Kia, Hyundia, Ford and VW will kill them as they all have Mega Cast platforms up and running now as they move to get multiple products out by 2025. We are at the end of 2022 and they are supposed to release a report at the start of 2023, approvals and politics inside Toyota will take place and at the earliest, I can see them start on the new Mega Cast platform starting late 2023 or early 2024, so if just 3 years, that puts Toyota on track for a profitable Mega cast platform in production in 2027, 2 years behind many others that will have multiple products out.

    I think it depends on what Toyota’s production capacity is in 5 years.  I think we need another upgrade in battery life and cost for EV to really take over. It might not be until 2030 that EV market share hits 50%.  So Toyota has time if they scale huge and have everything in place then.

    We can say GM has products coming but it’s all low volume.  5,000 Sierra electric trucks at $105,000 isn’t a business model for them.  GM needs to be making 500,000 electric pick ups, 500,000 electric Equinox globally, maybe more.  
     

    Only Tesla has the scale in place,  they will sell over a million Model Y next year, Ford will be lucky to hit 50,000 Mach-E’s.  If Toyota shows up in 3-5 years with 3-5 million EV per year capacity they could stop Ford and GM just as they have the past 30 years.

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    30 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

    I think it depends on what Toyota’s production capacity is in 5 years.  I think we need another upgrade in battery life and cost for EV to really take over. It might not be until 2030 that EV market share hits 50%.  So Toyota has time if they scale huge and have everything in place then.

    We can say GM has products coming but it’s all low volume.  5,000 Sierra electric trucks at $105,000 isn’t a business model for them.  GM needs to be making 500,000 electric pick ups, 500,000 electric Equinox globally, maybe more.  
     

    Only Tesla has the scale in place,  they will sell over a million Model Y next year, Ford will be lucky to hit 50,000 Mach-E’s.  If Toyota shows up in 3-5 years with 3-5 million EV per year capacity they could stop Ford and GM just as they have the past 30 years.

    Agree to disagree then as Europe has set a line in the sand for EV sales as has China. Due to the parts shortages and inflation due to idiot decisions in DC in the past decade, we have people who struggle and people who do not. 

    Humanity is nothing but predictable in certain ways and autos have become an appliance for most who do not want to deal with oil, gas, maintenance, etc. As such, there is a reason EVs have taken off in bigger numbers where a larger assortment of options is available. I believe this will happen here too once the planned models come out in the next couple of years.

    Batteries will always get upgraded, same with software and electric motors. The ability to have a proper platform in place to grow off of is what will hold Toyota back compared to GM. GM is now with Mega Casting and a pure 800V platform. Toyota does not have this and is looking at 3 to 5 years to get there. That is a big deficit to overcome. 

    Tesla MIGHT still be a leader in a couple years, but I would not bet on it as long as they have idiot Musk doing the stupid things he is doing. CEO Leadership is missing at Tesla IMHO compared to GM. Toyota has money now but could end up hurting like other auto companies due to stupid decisions and the whole lose face thing.

    You know GM is not looking at selling 5,000 trucks only nor is Ford. They are both looking at selling millions and are aiming to make a full business of EVs for all product size in Trucks, SUVs and Cars. Market will dictate for sure.

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    18 hours ago, David said:

    Agree to disagree then as Europe has set a line in the sand for EV sales as has China. Due to the parts shortages and inflation due to idiot decisions in DC in the past decade, we have people who struggle and people who do not. 

    Humanity is nothing but predictable in certain ways and autos have become an appliance for most who do not want to deal with oil, gas, maintenance, etc. As such, there is a reason EVs have taken off in bigger numbers where a larger assortment of options is available. I believe this will happen here too once the planned models come out in the next couple of years.

    Batteries will always get upgraded, same with software and electric motors. The ability to have a proper platform in place to grow off of is what will hold Toyota back compared to GM. GM is now with Mega Casting and a pure 800V platform. Toyota does not have this and is looking at 3 to 5 years to get there. That is a big deficit to overcome. 

    Tesla MIGHT still be a leader in a couple years, but I would not bet on it as long as they have idiot Musk doing the stupid things he is doing. CEO Leadership is missing at Tesla IMHO compared to GM. Toyota has money now but could end up hurting like other auto companies due to stupid decisions and the whole lose face thing.

    You know GM is not looking at selling 5,000 trucks only nor is Ford. They are both looking at selling millions and are aiming to make a full business of EVs for all product size in Trucks, SUVs and Cars. Market will dictate for sure.

    Toyota has more cash on hand than the value of GM as a company, they have the money to get supply chains, battery production, factory upgrades, etc all in place and launch a massive EV production within 5 years.  It might take Ford and GM 5 more years to get to that volume anyway.  We are still almost 1 year away from Blaze and Equinox EV going on sale, 9 months or so for Silverado EV and all those GM might only build 5-10,000 each next year.  So not until 2024 will they really be up and running and who knows what that pace is.  If GM or Ford sell over a million EV's in the calendar year 2024 in the USA I'd be surprised.  

    There is still a price problem when the typical small crossover starts at $27k and $33k is the average sale price for that segment.  But a Mach-E, Ariya, id4, bz4x, etc are low $40s starting and like $50k average.  Tax credit (if you qualify) fuel and maintenance savings, yes I get all that.  But the majority of the car buying market can't afford an EV, or if you can, you are comparing a Genesis GV70 or maybe even a GV80 to a Hyundai Ioniq 5 for similar money.  You can buy a Lexus RX for the same price as a smaller, bz4x.   A Kia EV6 awd starts at $51,400, a Cadillac XT5 with awd is larger and about $5k cheaper, and it's a Cadillac not a Kia.  Prices have to get in line for the consumer demand to be there.

    Tesla has the best CEO in the auto industry.   Most legacy OEM's are flat in revenue over the past 10 years, GM actually had less revenue in 2021 than they did 10 years ago.  If you factor in inflation a lot of these companies aren't growing, Tesla is growing every year.

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    1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

    Toyota has more cash on hand than the value of GM as a company, they have the money to get supply chains, battery production, factory upgrades, etc all in place and launch a massive EV production within 5 years.  It might take Ford and GM 5 more years to get to that volume anyway.  We are still almost 1 year away from Blaze and Equinox EV going on sale, 9 months or so for Silverado EV and all those GM might only build 5-10,000 each next year.  So not until 2024 will they really be up and running and who knows what that pace is.  If GM or Ford sell over a million EV's in the calendar year 2024 in the USA I'd be surprised.  

    There is still a price problem when the typical small crossover starts at $27k and $33k is the average sale price for that segment.  But a Mach-E, Ariya, id4, bz4x, etc are low $40s starting and like $50k average.  Tax credit (if you qualify) fuel and maintenance savings, yes I get all that.  But the majority of the car buying market can't afford an EV, or if you can, you are comparing a Genesis GV70 or maybe even a GV80 to a Hyundai Ioniq 5 for similar money.  You can buy a Lexus RX for the same price as a smaller, bz4x.   A Kia EV6 awd starts at $51,400, a Cadillac XT5 with awd is larger and about $5k cheaper, and it's a Cadillac not a Kia.  Prices have to get in line for the consumer demand to be there.

    Tesla has the best CEO in the auto industry.   Most legacy OEM's are flat in revenue over the past 10 years, GM actually had less revenue in 2021 than they did 10 years ago.  If you factor in inflation a lot of these companies aren't growing, Tesla is growing every year.

    Yes Toyota has more cash, but they also burned through 12%+ in one year showing money does not mean forever. At that burn rate, they will reduce cash on hand by half in 3 years and be on par with GM in 5 years when they are finally on an 800V mega Cast platform and by 2025 GM has planned to be producing 1 million plus EVs a year here in the US and the same in China. 

    image.png

    Compared to GM

    image.png

    Every interview shows that GM is very serious about becoming #1 in Luxury and EV Sales.

    GM bets on electric Equinox to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs (cnbc.com)

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    Ford is worth $53 billion, GM is worth $54 billion, Toyota is worth $225 billion, Tesla is worth $716 billion.   I'd say Elon is the best CEO if the CEO's job is to build shareholder value.  Toyota historically has kept about $50-60 billion in cash, google says it is over $70 billion this year.  But my point is Toyota has plenty of cash and manufacturing know how that they can scale up an operation.  I wouldn't count them out because they are still in a position of strength, still the largest car company in the world, they operate in every market. 

    I think the bz4x is a flop, but eventually they'll do electric Tundra, Tacoma, Hilux, Rav4, Prius EV, etc, and they'll be fine.  Unless they don't do any of that, but they aren't that stupid.

     

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    You guys and your pissing matches over something that is 100% irrelevant to you or whatever argument you're trying to make. 

    "X company is great because they have CASH!"

    "Look at my company and their cash!!"

    Schitts Creek Ok GIF by CBC

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    3 minutes ago, David said:

    Yes Toyota has more cash, but they also burned through 12%+ in one year showing money does not mean forever. At that burn rate, they will reduce cash on hand by half in 3 years and be on par with GM in 5 years when they are finally on an 800V mega Cast platform and by 2025 GM has planned to be producing 1 million plus EVs a year here in the US and the same in China. 

    image.png

    Compared to GM

    image.png

    Every interview shows that GM is very serious about becoming #1 in Luxury and EV Sales.

    GM bets on electric Equinox to kick-start 'massive adoption' of EVs (cnbc.com)

    I'd rather have $50-75 billion than $28-29 billion.  

    And I get what GM is saying, I think their strategy is spot on, take existing models and make them EV, make them look conventional, and at a price that makes sense.  But the Silverado, Sierra, Equinox, Blazer are all almost a year away from production still, and won't really see full production until 2024.  They could easily pull a bait and switch like the F150 Lightning that "starts under $40,000" but they only made top trims in 2022, then the 2023 base price is $51,974.   Just like the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 that never happened.  I agree with the strategy, I am waiting to see if they can deliver on the prices they are promising and the scale they say.    Like will they have a dozen Equinox EV's on dealer lots in the end of 2023 so you can go in and buy one, or will it be the place an order and get it in 5 months BS.  

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    53 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

    You guys and your pissing matches over something that is 100% irrelevant to you or whatever argument you're trying to make. 

    "X company is great because they have CASH!"

    "Look at my company and their cash!!"

    Schitts Creek Ok GIF by CBC

    Looks at another thread and two pages of pissing matches over the use of a pick up (and subsequent irrelevancy) and thinks to himself...

    Alanis Morissette Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

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    So now GM says they will produce 400,000 EV, across 2022, 2023 and first half of 2024.  With 70,000 Bolts next year being the volume leader.  
     

    That’s not enough volume, and that’s why this is still all up for grabs.  If people want EV’s and you can’t meet demand customers will go elsewhere.  This is more of a race  to build capacity rather than build the best car.

    And this is no different than the 1910’s when most cars were hand built low volume and then Ford found a way to make a million Model T’s a year.  They won because they had the most capacity, not because the Model T was a great car.

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    2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

    That’s not enough volume, and that’s why this is still all up for grabs.  If people want EV’s and you can’t meet demand customers will go elsewhere.  This is more of a race  to build capacity rather than build the best car.

    The last part shows why you are wrong. Somehow it never occurred to you that building the best quality EV was a better way to do business than selling in bulk right off the bat. Last I checked, it took Tesla almost a decade to manufacture at levels you see today and they STILL haven't gotten the quality down. Stop asking everyone else to do something else just because "that's enough volume" barely two years into the EV realm.

    Edited by surreal1272
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    2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

    The last part shows why you are wrong. Somehow it never occurred to you that building the best quality EV was a better way to do business than selling in bulk right off the bat. Last I checked, it took Tesla almost a decade to manufacture at levels you see today and they STILL haven't gotten the quality down. Stop asking everyone else to do something else just because "that's enough volume" barely two years into the EV realm.

    But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate.  The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year.

    I don’t think the Model Y by any means is the best car or best value, but it’s the Model T of the EV car market.

    The Equinox could be the best EV ever and it won’t matter if they can only make 40,000 per year.

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    5 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

    But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate.  The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year.

    Congrats on 100% missing the point there. 

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    Hydrogen aint never happenin'

    Not now.

    Not in the future.

    The video I just listened to that explains the waht is what on hydrogen spells a very grim look about hydrogen storage, hydrogen efficiency and the elephant in the room....the possible boom. A possible boom and aftermath wasnt even addressed in the video but it was hinted at when talking about storing it very reinforced containers and in liquid form in the Bimmer 7 Series releasing hydrogen after the car maybe left in place for 17 hours. 

    Only good thing about any of that is that what everybody LOVES to talk about hydrogen. The by-product of using hydrogen as a fuel source is H2O.  

     

    Oh...BTW, @ccap41.

    The dude says that the average Joe Blow likes to have his vehicle travel 300 miles before refueling...

    I aint trying to convince you to change your mind...

    I just like to pinpoint how shyte your opinion you hold is when you say that renting EVs today from Hertz is actually a hassle as compared to an ICE car today...

    Its not.  

    300 miles is what ICE cars do today.  Its a standard that when engineers do their cars, they calculate the MPGs with the engine and power and weight of the vehicle and engineer the appropriate gasoline tank to achieve 300 miles.

    300 mile range is the holy grail and EVs TODAY pretty much achieve that...

    If you are staying at a hotel...  working or on vacation...

     

    https://electriccitycorp.com/hotels-with-ev-charging/

     

    But that aint your thang...discussing with inteliigence...

    SEMANTIC driven bullshyte is your thang. Trolling...

    Not changin' your mind.  Just proving you gots no argument.  You could continue on your path of trolling, I will continue on my path of dead ending your trolling. 

    Edited by oldshurst442
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