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Drew Dowdell

The ending of globalization.

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Capesize ships now go for $6365 a day, $365 above the average daily cost of crew and fuel. There is so little shipping to be done that ports around the world are filling up with empty ships - and full ships that won't unload because no letters of credit are being accepted. No shipping, no trade. No trade, no globalization.

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Capesize ships now go for $6365 a day, $365 above the average daily cost of crew and fuel. There is so little shipping to be done that ports around the world are filling up with empty ships - and full ships that won't unload because no letters of credit are being accepted. No shipping, no trade. No trade, no globalization.

No globalization, no long-term sustainable economic growth, more unemployment....... IIRC it ws citibank that had an interesting report on the economic situation where the big ? was about protectionism or international trade collapse... that would throw us all in a deep Recession / Depression.

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I think what we are seeing with world shipping is merely a reflection of the massive wobbling that we are seeing in markets of every type. Money is moving around the globe so quickly, mostly in panic, that I don't think any of the so-called experts have a handle on what is happening.

Even if parts of the world are entering a recession, the huge drop in oil prices, the sheer paralysis in the world money markets and now the shipping crash tells me that panic is in the air.

What kind of drop in world wide trade would a recession bring? 2-4%? If so, how could that result in a 93% drop in the day rate of capesize ship rentals?

Something stinks from here to Denmark. Where has all the money suddenly gone? Gold hasn't gone through the roof. Nobody's investing in real estate, that's for sure.

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What kind of drop in world wide trade would a recession bring? 2-4%? If so, how could that result in a 93% drop in the day rate of capesize ship rentals?

It was a bubble in the price of shipping. Three years ago, near total capacity was reached in the global shipping fleet. Shipping prices skyrocketed. At the same time a whole bunch of new keels were laid down to increase capacity. By the time the new ships were complete, the global economy started to wobble. What started as a slight excess in capacity turned into a bubble popping as shipping prices fell just to keep the lights on.

Where has all the money suddenly gone? Gold hasn't gone through the roof. Nobody's investing in real estate, that's for sure.

It was never their to begin with. It was made up money, created by the banks at 40:1 leverage. The credit market drying up has given the appearance of the shrinking of the money supply... but the old view was a delusion illusion.

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so a global bank wouldn't be globalization? --that french and british were talking about in your other thread resurrected by me..sorta?

but i do kinda understand what this will do to "globalization"...untill the next business cycle. we never learn.

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I had to give a small seminar on globalization in one of my classes, and so I printed out this little nugget.

Needless to say, I scared the hell out of my teacher, and some students with the figures, so I think I have a big, fat, A coming my way. 8)

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Oldsmoboi:

Sooooo where does this leave us?

What IS it exactly that needs to be done?

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Oldsmoboi:

Sooooo where does this leave us?

What IS it exactly that needs to be done?

We suffer...

That's where it leaves us.

(Seriously, this sh*t isn't going to be reversed in 2 months like the 'global government' seems to think. It's going to take years)

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Oldsmoboi:

Sooooo where does this leave us?

What IS it exactly that needs to be done?

Remember how you used to live back in Europe? Might start to need to brush up on that a bit.

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We suffer...

That's where it leaves us.

(Seriously, this sh*t isn't going to be reversed in 2 months like the 'global government' seems to think. It's going to take years)

perhaps not... the big guys sure fall the most, from globalization... but it helps the little guy in america, if the little guys in china go out of business...

china had a hand in this, a little bit, they raised their minimum wage and put themselves out of work, for cheaper smaller 3rd world countries... now their factories are empty, and the asian bubble has popped. we'll see how this affects japan, as the majority of all their sales are outside their country. the US is relitively self sufficient we have every sector in our ecconomy, and much of the world depends on us for agriculture. so that market wont dry up... but japanese exporters will dry up, and leave the streets of japan without income... making the money crisis in japan even worse. i believe that the world ecconomy will continue to fall for the next 2-3 years... and at some point obama is going to be the last man standing with a plan, and everyone will look to him for the future of the world. the snow ball is just starting to get rolling... look 80 years ago, on black friday the market lost a huge percent... this september had the worst week in the Dow's history. and if u look at the great depression you'll see that the stock market continued to fall for the next few years, it didnt really hit bottom till 32-33 ish, that was 4 years after the crash in 1929. it took till 1937-1939 before wall street had fully restored to its previous highs, and the bubble continued to grow until 1950 when the market took a huge dive again.

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Remember how you used to live back in Europe? Might start to need to brush up on that a bit.

Yeah... well my parents were planning that

all along, they want to retire there and might

have already had it not been for me giving

them two grandchildren they'd miss dearly.

As far as myself... I LOVE the USA, to just

walk out on this country seems wrong. The

USA is, IMHO the best country in the history

of the world. No place has ever offered so

much and asked so little in return.

I hope dearly that the USA makes it through

these upcoming tough times intact... esp.

the constitution... civil liberties etc.

Short term: I'm not going anywhere outside

the USA, and I'd love to help our country

get back on track, long term: at some point

people realised that the Titanic WAS sinking

and there were NOT enough lifeboats...

Survival is a critical component of the human

psyche... it might be ugly and sad but push

come to shove I'll go back to the motherland.

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Yeah... well my parents were planning that

all along, they want to retire there and might

have already had it not been for me giving

them two grandchildren they'd miss dearly.

As far as myself... I LOVE the USA, to just

walk out on this country seems wrong. The

USA is, IMHO the best country in the history

of the world. No place has ever offered so

much and asked so little in return.

I hope dearly that the USA makes it through

these upcoming tough times intact... esp.

the constitution... civil liberties etc.

Short term: I'm not going anywhere outside

the USA, and I'd love to help our country

get back on track, long term: at some point

people realised that the Titanic WAS sinking

and there were NOT enough lifeboats...

Survival is a critical component of the human

psyche... it might be ugly and sad but push

come to shove I'll go back to the motherland.

I'm not saying that you'll move back. I'm saying that old eastern europe will come to America.

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This... coming from someone who tried to

convince us all on this forum that Obama

was NOT a socialist? I'm confused!? :blink:

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This... coming from someone who tried to

convince us all on this forum that Obama

was NOT a socialist? I'm confused!? :blink:

Who said that Obama would be responsible for this? This is already underway, nothing Obama has done would be the cause.

But regardless, this has nothing to do with Obama nor with Socialism. This is the reality of the state of the global market place.

This is a massive failure and contraction of global capitalism.

This is why it is no longer economically feasible to sell bananas in Boston in the winter.

1. People don't have money.

2. Fuel costs are too high.

3. Stores cannot get credit to buy inventory.

4. shipping companies can't make payroll

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And who's to blame.... let me guess? Those damn evil Republicans, right?

WRONG!

It is a failure of epic proportions and both Republicans and Democrats &

the Japanese & Chinese & French & who-ever-the-heck else you want to

pull out of a hat.... they all played a part.

BUT, I find it interesting you you're always offering blame without real

advice. Brace yourself, we're fu*ked! is hardly good advice.

And for the record I think massive blame belongs with "Dubya"

More than any other president, W. J. Clinton sold us down the

river to the Chinese... he enabled Ross Perot's prophecy and THAT was

& is the biggest part of the puzzle that morphed into "Depression 2008."

Free Trade.

I find it very frustrating that thread after thread is closed after the

conversation is monopolized by one of two sides.

How about being pro-active, why the heck can't we as a country come

together and agree to kick ass and take names?

You're moving to Germany... well that's great. Thanks & Goodbye.

I love Germany, I love Slovakia & the EU, but I love the USA 1st

and foremost and I think its time we got MAD and then DEMANDED

some real Change... Obama will have his chance but after the feel

good speeches wear off I'm afraid it will be business as usual with

a liberal amount of liberalism thrown in.

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WTF man?!

1. I haven't (yet) blamed anyone.

2. It's not a political issue.

I'm trying to point out the unsustainability of our current economic structure. Globalization is NOT sustainable without some sort of renewable fuel and won't be restarted to previous levels until this financial mess is solved.

It simply is not profitable to sell bananas in Boston for 69 cents a pound yet market demand forces are dictating the price.

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Actually, I find a sustainable world with local production to be a much more jsut world and a much "better" world to live in.

Chris

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