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  • William Maley
    William Maley

    Tesla's Upcoming Model Y To Use Model 3 Platform

    There has been a change of plans for the upcoming Model Y

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a surprise announcement earlier this year with the upcoming Model Y crossover using a new platform and not the one used for the Model 3. Musk has changed his tune, however.

    “Upon the council of my executive team . . . who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity—much appreciated—the Model Y will in fact be using substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster,” said Musk during the second quarter earnings call yesterday.

    How much faster? Previously, Musk said the Model Y (if that is the final name) could arrive by 2019. But during this call, Musk did not give a date - possibly a wise idea.

    Source: Autoblog, Car and Driver


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    12 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

    480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

    So in this world of yours, sedans are selling better than CUVs? 

     

    Oh and they had 65,000 cancellations. 

    6 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

    The crossover would probably have 800k reservations in today's market.

    Exactly my point. 

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    1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

    480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

    During the earnings call Musk answered the question about reservations and cancellations.

    http://www.thedrive.com/tech/13163/63000-people-have-cancelled-their-tesla-model-3-reservations-so-far

    They had 518,000 reservations at the start of the year and have now had 63,000 cancellations so far leaving them with 455,000 reservations. If this stays steady, then expect another 63,000 cancellations leaving them with 392,000.

    Yes I am sure they might get a few more reservations but now that people see the production auto and see the limited options, I kinda doubt they will get much more and expect them to close out the year under 400K reservations.

    Clearly the difference between 480,000 and 455,000 is a big one. Where did you get this number?

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    Quote

    480,000 reservations for the Model 3 as of August 2, 2017.

    On 8/1/2017 at 1:53 PM, balthazar said:

    I doubt half have been cancelled- I would believe 15% from the initial placement... but now that hard numbers are out there WRT $, I expect it to edge up from that some. I think it's realistic to guess 25%.

    480,000 / 63000 = 13%

    Let's see where it goes from here.

    Edited by balthazar

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    23 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

    Probably will be over 500k by Labor Day..

    Doubt it, but maybe, Musk says 1800 people a day are making reservations. that is only 32 days away or 57,600 and if the number is true then you have 455,000 + 57,600 = 512,600 but then minus those cancellations which is 63,000 from Jan 1st to July 31st. So take 63,000 divided by 212 days = 297.169 cancelations per day.

    32 days times 297.169 = 9,509.4339 cancelations.

    512,600 - 9,509 = 503,091 so you may be right, but also I really doubt Musk is getting 1,800 reservations a day. I still expect the reservations to be below 400,000 by the end of the year and only about 20 to 30,000 model 3's actually delivered.

    29 minutes ago, balthazar said:

    480,000 / 63000 = 13%

    Let's see where it goes from here.

    Would it not be 63,000 / 455,000 = 13.8%

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    If they even sell 200,000 Model 3's next year that would be more than the 3-series ever sold in a year.  At 350,000 they are at Camry and Accord levels, which are the best selling sedans in the US.  If sedan sales look bad now, wait till next year when the Model 3 takes a huge chunk of them.

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    11 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

    They will not, I repeat, will not sell 200K Model 3s in one year. 

    Agreed, since the Tesla S & X sold 46,000 last year, If they can double that number to 46,000 Tesla S & X and 46,000 Tesla 3 for 2018 they will be doing good I think.

    Since they have clarified that they will be adding a Tesla Y CUV on the Tesla 3 platform, I think they really are pushing just how many auto's they can build.

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    5 hours ago, smk4565 said:

    If they even sell 200,000 Model 3's next year that would be more than the 3-series ever sold in a year.  At 350,000 they are at Camry and Accord levels, which are the best selling sedans in the US.  If sedan sales look bad now, wait till next year when the Model 3 takes a huge chunk of them.

    Thinking people are going to get tired of waiting...and their money may go to someone else....

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    14 hours ago, balthazar said:

    Anyone going to be surprised to see Model Y pre-ordering opened up in short order? Like before the end of 2017?

    Wouldn't surprise me....Next Big Thing for Tesla...

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    14 hours ago, balthazar said:

    Anyone going to be surprised to see Model Y pre-ordering opened up in short order? Like before the end of 2017?

    Yes, a way to keep money for those fleeing the extra long wait for a Tesla 3 and really wanting a CUV. With all the other OEM's bringing out CUV's over the next 12 months, I think Tesla's cake is going to be eaten!

    9 hours ago, daves87rs said:

    Thinking people are going to get tired of waiting...and their money may go to someone else....

    Exactly, OEM's over the next 12 months will have various new CUV EV's. Tesla missed this boat big time as the Tesla 3 CUV should have been first not the car. Plus other options without long waits will have people going back to their favorite auto dealer.

    19 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

    Wouldn't surprise me....Next Big Thing for Tesla...

    Only way to keep the cash flow going to prop up the company.

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    When are all these electric CUVs arriving?  Audi and Mercedes are targeting 2019, they are 2 years away.   The Buick Bolt is probably a year or two away and if it is the size of a Bolt, will be a lot smaller than a Model Y.  It's not like Lexus has an electric RX for $40k coming in 6 months.  Even if the Model Y is 2019, they aren't really behind the curve and they do already sell an electric SUV.

     

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    "No one buys" mercedes plug-ins - Bolt is moving SIX TIMES all MB EVs combined monthly.
    That's likely to continue no matter how Daimler repackages it. Meanwhile MB is just conceding more & more ground to General Motors by refusing to get serious about the segment and fix the uncompetitive models they already have out.

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    48 minutes ago, balthazar said:

    "No one buys" mercedes plug-ins - Bolt is moving SIX TIMES all MB EVs combined monthly.
    That's likely to continue no matter how Daimler repackages it. Meanwhile MB is just conceding more & more ground to General Motors by refusing to get serious about the segment and fix the uncompetitive models they already have out.

    Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10.  Mercedes has also had a battery factory under construction, GM does not have a battery factory like Tesla and Mercedes do.

    I think the electric Mercedes will sell, they don't even advertise any of their plug ins, plus a plug in is not an EV.   The real EVs are coming in 2019 and we'll see what they got.  Which to my original point, who has an electric SUV now besides Tesla and people are critizicng Tesla for lack of electric suvs.

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    6 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

    Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10.  Mercedes has also had a battery factory under construction, GM does not have a battery factory like Tesla and Mercedes do.

    I think the electric Mercedes will sell, they don't even advertise any of their plug ins, plus a plug in is not an EV.   The real EVs are coming in 2019 and we'll see what they got.  Which to my original point, who has an electric SUV now besides Tesla and people are critizicng Tesla for lack of electric suvs.

    Just stop. Tesla is just like every other make out there and every other make has prioritized CUVs over sedans because that is what's selling. To pretend otherwise is just an obvious case of bias to suit your argument of the day. 

     

    "Cadillac needs seven CUVs to compete"

     

    "Tesla doesn't need a CUV to compete"

     

    That's how you're coming off right now. 

     

    Finally, no one has an electric SUV including Tesla. They have an electric CUV and so does GM. 

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    1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

    When are all these electric CUVs arriving?  Audi and Mercedes are targeting 2019, they are 2 years away.   The Buick Bolt is probably a year or two away and if it is the size of a Bolt, will be a lot smaller than a Model Y.  It's not like Lexus has an electric RX for $40k coming in 6 months.  Even if the Model Y is 2019, they aren't really behind the curve and they do already sell an electric SUV.

    Latest news that I have read is showing that the german brands and a few asian brands along with Volvo are planning to roll out production version during the 2017-2018 auto shows with production and on sale in late 2018 at 2019 models. Even MB your superior brand has updated their news that their first EV will launch at dealerships in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2018 which means we will see it announced at one of the major shows during the 2017-2018 show time frame.

    End result is that Tesla is going to find it very hard very soon as other auto companies offer EV CUV's that people want and many will pass on waiting years to get a Tesla compared to buying MB, BMW, Audi, Volvo, Jaguar, GM, Ford, etc.

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    30 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

    what's gm's electric cuv?

    mustn't be good if no one's heard of it

    The Bolt is a small CUV that is called a hatchback (which all CUVs are). Thanks for playing though. 

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    2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

    Mercedes is making 10 electric vehicles.  I hope the Bolt and its Buick sibling can take on all 10. 

    Bolt is ALREADY taking ALL 4 of MB's plug-ins on, right now.

    July '17~
    Bolt : 1,971
    Volt : 1,518
    total ~ 3,833
    ALL 4 MB plug-ins : 344

    So if 4 MB plug-ins average 86 sales each/mnth, 10 would be 860/mnth.

    I hope MB can take on all of the Bolt with their 10 vehicles.

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