Ram Smashes Range Anxiety with their Ram 1500 REV: Comments

[Drew Dowdell]

16 minutes ago, David said:

A hidden time bomb? A 'Big Short' investor sees financial disaster brewing in housing markets (msn.com)

Here is part one of the big financial mess we have brewing to hit us that will affect auto sales.

This is probably a whole different topic to talk about... .but yes.

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, ccap41 said:

More like >20% for everything that isn't an S Class.

EQS SUV & GLS

• EQS SUV: 104,400
• minus 20% would be: 83,520
• GLS: 81,800

EQE Sedan & E Class

• EQE Sedan: 74,900
• minus 20% would be: 59,920
• E Class: 56,750

EQB & GLB

• EQB SUV: 52,750
• minus 20% would be: 42,200
• GLB: 39,800

EQE SUV & GLE

• EQE SUV: 77,900
• minus 20% would be: 62,320
• GLE: 57,700

Every one of those is greater than 20% higher than their ICE sibling. 

Some of those EV’s have equipment that the base ICE cars don’t.  But I would say at least 10% cuts, maybe 20%.  The AMG electric cars might compete out cheaper than the ICE version, if they build in Alabama they might get tax credits too.  So if they can cut msrp 10% and then get some tax credit money they get close enough to swap the whole brand to EV without really changing their overall pricing.

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, ccap41 said:

I'll be curious how these same exact Teslas sell once they're all 10-15 years old, because there hasn't been a peep out about any all new refreshes or anything. 

Also, your numbers seem pretty insane. You know this, right? You think they'll just flip a switch this year and add 500k units of production AND demand immediately follows suit? 

Also, 1.8 +0.5 = 2.3, not 2.5. 300,000 unit's is significant here.

I'm not sure what your Mexico-plant sentence is supposed to say. 

I think we can all agree that Tesla saying they'll have an all-new 25k model is just magic dust until they ACTUALLY start production. Everything they've come out with brand new has had YEARS of delays before they're in customers' hands. So I don't think the legacy manufacturers are all that worried about a 25k Tesla until there's something tangible there, not just words. 

Where'd you get your 25,000 units number from? Just curious. 

They can expand Shanghai, Austin and Berlin, there is room for more capacity at all, Cybertruck in Austin of course.  Those 3 factories plus California seems like 2.5 million is very doable.   Mexico next and then after that might be Canada for a future plant.  They seem pretty intent on at least 10 million capacity by 2030.

 

I am just making up 25,000, maybe it is more but look at sales of Grand Wagoneer, Escalade, S-class etc.  you don’t sell a lot of $100,000 vehicles no matter what it is.  And even if these are $80,000, that is still beyond the price of current Ram 1500s.  
 

GM sold 2 Hummer EV’s last quarter, true stat.  Even if Ram has demand, how much capacity will they have.  Mach-E is in year 3 and on pace for 22,000 sales this year.

[surreal1272]

5 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

GM sold 2 Hummer EV’s last quarter, true stat

True stat without context, like the fact that production was halted to address the battery issues. If you’re going to make this case about sales and their correlation to prices, then make sure you give complete context when you do it. Think of it the same way you do when Mercedes doesn’t meet certain expectations. 

[ccap41]

30 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Some of those EV’s have equipment that the base ICE cars don’t.  But I would say at least 10% cuts, maybe 20%.  The AMG electric cars might compete out cheaper than the ICE version, if they build in Alabama they might get tax credits too.  So if they can cut msrp 10% and then get some tax credit money they get close enough to swap the whole brand to EV without really changing their overall pricing.

More equipment doesn't make them more affordable. They cost more than 20% more to buy. Period. Add in taxes on that 20% and it's even worse... 

[ccap41]

21 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

They can expand Shanghai, Austin and Berlin, there is room for more capacity at all, Cybertruck in Austin of course.  Those 3 factories plus California seems like 2.5 million is very doable.   Mexico next and then after that might be Canada for a future plant.  They seem pretty intent on at least 10 million capacity by 2030.

You keep missing a key factor here and that's consumer demand. They can have all the capacity in the world but they still need buyers for these. 

With Teslas stale portfolio, there's no way that demands is sustainable over an infinite amount of time. 

I doubt Americans are wanting a vehicle built from outside the US and to just spend $7500 more. 

[David]

42 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

They can expand Shanghai, Austin and Berlin, there is room for more capacity at all, Cybertruck in Austin of course.  Those 3 factories plus California seems like 2.5 million is very doable.   Mexico next and then after that might be Canada for a future plant.  They seem pretty intent on at least 10 million capacity by 2030.

 

I am just making up 25,000, maybe it is more but look at sales of Grand Wagoneer, Escalade, S-class etc.  you don’t sell a lot of $100,000 vehicles no matter what it is.  And even if these are $80,000, that is still beyond the price of current Ram 1500s.  
 

GM sold 2 Hummer EV’s last quarter, true stat.  Even if Ram has demand, how much capacity will they have.  Mach-E is in year 3 and on pace for 22,000 sales this year.

As @surreal1272 stated, if your going to post facts include context as your fact posting is not true in the context you have stated of sales. They have plenty of Hummer Sales and they stopped to address a failure in the sealing of the battery pack.

Mach-E sales you have posted is a Lie also as you have not looked at the whole picture as Ford has already stated they are projecting 60,000 Mach e sales in North America and even more globally.

Ford Expanding Sales of Mustang Mach-E to 37 Countries in 2023 - DBusiness Magazine

Ford just built their 150,000th Mach-e at the Mexico plant and has already announced that they are expanding production to 600,000 by the end of 2023.

This is where your info is wrong as Tesla just cannot speed up a production line. There is equipment to buy, expansion at said plants, etc. Since Tesla choose to Ignore the Auto Industry on how they build as an example trucks ever 37 seconds, Tesla is doing it their own way and wasting years as it take them massive change over every time they ramp up production.

Tesla has even stated that the numbers they are building now in Texas has taken months for them to figure out and move things around to improve the assembly flow of building Tesla Y and now to add the Cyber Truck by the end of the year. 

Story Quote: The automaker plans to boost annual production from a projected rate of 600,000 Mach-E’s annually by late 2023, and more than 2 million annually by 2026.

Tesla has never been able to ramp this fast unlike Ford or GM.

BACK TO THE RAM REV.

While I am excited that they have their standard 168-kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack and an optional 229-kWh large battery pack I have to wonder how heavy the truck will be with the optional 229 kWh battery pack. 

If GMC Hummer Truck is 10,000 lbs and it has a 200 kWh battery pack, I wonder if the REV will end up pushing 11,000 lbs?

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

The $33K A-Class must not have received that memo.

 

That's gone, the GLA is $38,650 with destination.  That is the cheapest vehicle and that is no options, no all wheel drive.

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Tesla is only ahead in EVs because that's all they do.

Telsa is losing the tax credit on several versions of its cars.

Tesla woke a sleeping giant in GM.

Elon is doing himself no favors with his open politics and twitter shenanigans.  He is turning people off to the brand.

 

I can agree on the Elon point, but the Tesla brand name is quite strong.  With $0 advertising spend they keep gaining in sales as fast as they can build them and by far have the best profit per car.  Tesla is in really good position on the demand side, and they are ramping up the supply side quite nicely also.

I don't know if GM is the sleeping giant, this is the company that let Honda and Toyota walk all over them in the 80s, let the Germans and Japanese luxury brands walk all over them in the 90s, went bankrupt in the 2000s, gave up on minivans, killed 5 brands in the 2000s,  sold their European operations in the 2010s (which PSA turned profitable in a heartbeat), killed off all Buick sedans in the 2010s (maybe into 2020s), killed off Spark, Sonic, Volt, Cruze, Impala, and soon Camaro in the 2020s.  

Look at their market share, 50% to 16-18% since 2016, they were 17% last year.  I wouldn't bank on them beating Tesla, they haven't been able to beat much of anyone else.  If anything once Tesla hits lower price points and more segments, GM will start bleeding more market share.  I  think GM has a good plan doing EV versions of existing products like Equinox, Blazer, Silverado, etc, it keeps it familiar and you aren't inventing new segments, just flipping what you have now to EV.  But that probably just keeps existing base, and it is a slow ramp upend I don't see them attracting a ton of new business with it.

The Model 3 base loses the tax credit, but I imagine Tesla will work on that, or have the new dual motor long range available this supper that they'll get to qualify for it.  The Mach-E is losing 50% of its tax credit on April 18th, there will be many that get reduced credits, not just Tesla.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

You keep missing a key factor here and that's consumer demand. They can have all the capacity in the world but they still need buyers for these. 

With Teslas stale portfolio, there's no way that demands is sustainable over an infinite amount of time. 

I doubt Americans are wanting a vehicle built from outside the US and to just spend $7500 more. 

Model 3/Y sales are up nearly 40% in Q1 and those have been around like 5 years.  Why aren't Chevrolet or Toyota up 40%?  The demand for Tesla I would imagine is 10 times that for Chevy or Toyota.  Although I agree that the S/X really need an update, and the 3/Y could use a refresh, maybe even just adding a little screen for speedometer behind the steering wheel.  But Tesla cars don't look stale because they don't load them up with plastic body cladding, badges, 2 tone paint, door moldings, etc that all age poorly and they don't have to worry about grille openings and all the bumper plastic that tends to lead to dated styling because the whole car is just body color.

[surreal1272]

32 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

That's gone, the GLA is $38,650 with destination.  That is the cheapest vehicle and that is no options, no all wheel drive.

Drew already pointed it but it mostly a joke anyway, and one that wasn’t too far from the truth for the “best or nothing”. 
 

And it’s $37,500 for that GLA. 
 

7 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

With $0 advertising spend they keep gaining in sales as fast as they can build them and by far have the best profit per car

That’s not true either. FFS man, if you’re going to make Tesla out to be so great, make sure it’s backed up by facts. 
 

Even after a price drop, their “demand” was off. 
 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/02/investing/tesla-sales/index.html

[surreal1272]

3 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Model 3/Y sales are up nearly 40% in Q1 and those have been around like 5 years.  Why aren't Chevrolet or Toyota up 40%?

Really? That’s your latest apples to oranges comparison. 
 

That is utter horse$h! and you know it but let me spell it out for you. 
 

The Model 3 has FAAAAAR less overall competition than any ICE model from Toyota or Chevrolet. It is interesting to note that GM saw an 18% bump in the 1st quarter of this year but hey, I guess it’s easier to cherry pick just one model and compare it against unrelated models. 
 

Good grief. 

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, David said:

 

BACK TO THE RAM REV.

While I am excited that they have their standard 168-kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack and an optional 229-kWh large battery pack I have to wonder how heavy the truck will be with the optional 229 kWh battery pack. 

If GMC Hummer Truck is 10,000 lbs and it has a 200 kWh battery pack, I wonder if the REV will end up pushing 11,000 lbs?

It is going to be real heavy and real expensive.  This goes to a general problem with EV's in every buying battery on the consumer's part.  Or the car maker over selling battery.  Many gasoline cars have a 300 mile range, no one cares because there are gas stations everywhere.  If there was a larger public charge network, and you could charge at home, a 200 mile battery would be plenty for probably about 95% of people.  

The dept of energy has a 2022 estimate of $153 per kWh (at scale of at least 100,000 units per year).   So if we use that number the Ram REV battery is $35,037 at Stellantis cost, the mark up to dealer, mark up to consumer, at $40,000 in msrp for just the battery, while an average Ram without a battery is $50-60k, a top trip $75k?  (not a TRX). Now we are talking a $100-115,000 truck, if the ICE truck goes away, who can afford that?  You aren't selling 500,000 units a year.  So they need a Ram REV with a 100 kWh battery (in addition to 168 and 229) that is a $15,000 pack and you have $20,000 in cost out right there.

And everyone needed to get cell prices under $100 per kWh to start to get these EV's more affordable.

6 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Really? That’s your latest apples to oranges comparison. 
 

That is utter horse$h! and you know it but let me spell it out for you. 
 

The Model 3 has FAAAAAR less overall competition than any ICE model from Toyota or Chevrolet. It is interesting to note that GM saw an 18% bump in the 1st quarter of this year but hey, I guess it’s easier to cherry pick just one model and compare it against unrelated models. 
 

Good grief. 

GM also had a bad Q1 in 2022.  But GM did beat Toyota in Q1, so it was a good quarter for GM.

[David]

5 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

I can agree on the Elon point, but the Tesla brand name is quite strong.  With $0 advertising spend they keep gaining in sales as fast as they can build them and by far have the best profit per car.  Tesla is in really good position on the demand side, and they are ramping up the supply side quite nicely also.

I don't know if GM is the sleeping giant, this is the company that let Honda and Toyota walk all over them in the 80s, let the Germans and Japanese luxury brands walk all over them in the 90s, went bankrupt in the 2000s, gave up on minivans, killed 5 brands in the 2000s,  sold their European operations in the 2010s (which PSA turned profitable in a heartbeat), killed off all Buick sedans in the 2010s (maybe into 2020s), killed off Spark, Sonic, Volt, Cruze, Impala, and soon Camaro in the 2020s.  

Look at their market share, 50% to 16-18% since 2016, they were 17% last year.  I wouldn't bank on them beating Tesla, they haven't been able to beat much of anyone else.  If anything once Tesla hits lower price points and more segments, GM will start bleeding more market share.  I  think GM has a good plan doing EV versions of existing products like Equinox, Blazer, Silverado, etc, it keeps it familiar and you aren't inventing new segments, just flipping what you have now to EV.  But that probably just keeps existing base, and it is a slow ramp upend I don't see them attracting a ton of new business with it.

The Model 3 base loses the tax credit, but I imagine Tesla will work on that, or have the new dual motor long range available this supper that they'll get to qualify for it.  The Mach-E is losing 50% of its tax credit on April 18th, there will be many that get reduced credits, not just Tesla.

As has been stated before, Tesla is slowing down and their dominance while still strong is falling.

Lets look at the sales and see where Tesla stands. 

How Many Teslas Have Been Sold? | Model S, 3, X, Y Sales By Year | Licarco

Best increase in sales was 2020 to 2021, an increase of 436,575

Tesla shrunk from 2021 to 2022 with an increase of only 377,629

If we take the Q1 number, 422,875 X 4 = 1,691,500 an increase of only 377,649 staying par with the year before and we are moving into a global recession where big ticket items fall off for people as more move into default on auto loans and home loans.

Every where one looks in the financial sector you find the same story, 

Why Tesla’s Market Share Is Set To Plunge In 2023 (forbes.com)

We can then look at the financial side which has been reviewed by many that says the Talk of Musk is not backed up by the actual numbers. Tesla has moved to an interesting Short view to back up a positive spin on falling business. The latest numbers are a 4% rise over Q4 of 2022, but Tesla ignores the rest of 2022 and overall year data.

Tesla sales again fall short of production | CNN Business

The raw numbers show that Tesla produced 78,000 more auto's than they could ship to customers which made up 5% of their auto's they built or shows they had a -1% not a 4% positive. Q1 2023 is 18,000 EVs less than they produced both in Q4 and Q3 of 2022.

Musk refused to answer questions about production versus demand but to quote analysts.

“If it wasn’t clear before, it now is, Tesla has a demand problem,” Gordon Johnson, an analyst who is one of the biggest Tesla critics, said in a note Monday.

“For four straight quarters, Tesla has produced more cars than they have sold, despite the fact that two of its plants are operating at 20% to 40% utilization, and it shut-down its largest plant, unexpectedly, three times in the first quarter,” said Johnson said, who said he believes Musk has a “pathological problem with the truth.”

“In short, no matter what Elon Musk says, Tesla has a serious/major demand problem,” said Johnson.

 

First quarter production was up only 0.2% from the final three months of 2022, despite it efforts to ramp up production in Germany and Texas.

Production and sales were up much more when compared to the first quarter of 2022, with production up 44% and deliveries up 36%. But even that suggests that Tesla is below the 50% annual growth target it has set for the company long term.

This shows that even if Tesla can hit 1.6 million EVs produced globally this year, they are in stagnation.

[David]

10 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

GM also had a bad Q1 in 2022.  But GM did beat Toyota in Q1, so it was a good quarter for GM.

So you talk about a year ago rather than current performance?

2023 U.S. Auto Manufacturer Sales Figures | GCBC (goodcarbadcar.net)

Tesla is not on here as to the way they release their data, but we now know that Tesla Q1 2023 is 422,875 puts them right under GM, but oh wait that number is globally, not just US only. Where GM's number above is U.S. only.

I have no time to dig through it all but others have already.

Tesla To Top VW Group, BMW, And Mercedes In US Sales In Q1 2023: Cox (insideevs.com)

Tesla sold 180,000 EVs in the U.S. according to inside EVs which puts Tesla behind Nissan Motors for auto sales in 8th place as a U.S. auto company.

 

[surreal1272]

17 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

GM also had a bad Q1 in 2022.  But GM did beat Toyota in Q1, so it was a good quarter for GM.

And? Most everyone had a struggle with 2022. Just set the bar back down. You don’t get to move it with your endless excuses. Fact if that if it was a loss instead of the gain that it is, you’d be tagging them for it. Meanwhile, proof of Tesla demand drops are given and you are eerily silent. 

[smk4565]

Tesla can still cut prices by $5,000 per car, and have better margins per can than anyone but Mercedes and that would stoke more demand.  Also Tesla only has 4 models, vs most of the companies ahead of them in sales have 20-30 models.  The future growth comes from new models. 

 

[surreal1272]

50 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla can still cut prices by $5,000 per car

Well that's a neat trick seeing as how they just did a few months ago and it led to what's in the article above, regarding their production versus sales. In other words, it didn't lead to more sales.

52 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Also Tesla only has 4 models, vs most of the companies ahead of them in sales have 20-30 models.

Again with the apples and oranges.

[David]

59 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla can still cut prices by $5,000 per car, and have better margins per can than anyone but Mercedes and that would stoke more demand.  Also Tesla only has 4 models, vs most of the companies ahead of them in sales have 20-30 models.  The future growth comes from new models. 

 

Are you sure on that cause you have used this better margin statement many times saying Porsche has the best margins and now your saying Mercedes has the best margins. So who is it? Mercedes, Porsche, Tesla, which is it?

[smk4565]

22 minutes ago, David said:

Are you sure on that cause you have used this better margin statement many times saying Porsche has the best margins and now your saying Mercedes has the best margins. So who is it? Mercedes, Porsche, Tesla, which is it?

By manufacturer, Tesla is #1 at $9,000 per car, Mercedes-Benz is 2nd at $5,000, BMW just behind that.  Toyota, GM, Ford, Honda, Hyundai/Kia, VW are all under $2k per car.  That is counting Porsche as part of Volkswagen.   On an individual brand basis, Ferrari would be #1 they make like $95,000 profit per car, then Rolls, Bentley, Porsche are all way up there based on brand.  But by corporation, Tesla is 5 times higher than the other volume corporations and double Mercedes-Benz who is more similar size in volume to them.

 

 

[David]

7 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

By manufacturer, Tesla is #1 at $9,000 per car, Mercedes-Benz is 2nd at $5,000, BMW just behind that.  Toyota, GM, Ford, Honda, Hyundai/Kia, VW are all under $2k per car.  That is counting Porsche as part of Volkswagen.   On an individual brand basis, Ferrari would be #1 they make like $95,000 profit per car, then Rolls, Bentley, Porsche are all way up there based on brand.  But by corporation, Tesla is 5 times higher than the other volume corporations and double Mercedes-Benz who is more similar size in volume to them.

Post your source on this please. You have posted so much FUD that none of this is believable without a source posted. 

Example the only thing I can currently find on profit margins for EVs is as follows and Mercedes DOES NOT have a listing.

Charted: Tesla's Unrivaled Profit Margins (visualcapitalist.com)

[surreal1272]

41 minutes ago, David said:

Post your source on this please. You have posted so much FUD that none of this is believable without a source posted. 

Example the only thing I can currently find on profit margins for EVs is as follows and Mercedes DOES NOT have a listing.

Charted: Tesla's Unrivaled Profit Margins (visualcapitalist.com)

 

 

Because he, again, skips context. Per a 2021 article:

"Mercedes-Benz was the most profitable car company last year, putting nearly $26 billion on the bottom line. But last year Mercedes spun off its heavy-truck business and booked that as a $12.3 billion profit. That’s a one-time windfall event that’s not going to happen again. So, if you strip that out Mercedes would move down to sixth place.

Ranking second is Toyota, with tidy net profit of more than $19 billion, and Ford is right behind it with $17.9 billion. But last year Ford boosted its profits with a one-time windfall of Rivian stock worth more than $8 billion. Take that out and Ford would move from third to seventh place."

 

Source:https://www.wardsauto.com/industry-news/numbers-tell-story-who-s-best-car-company-world

 

That covers ALL companies and ALL cars (ICE and EV), while yours deals with just EV related margins. Either one puts Daimler farther down than claimed. Case closed.

 

Moving on back to the RAM...

Edited April 7 by surreal1272

[smk4565]

35 minutes ago, David said:

Post your source on this please. You have posted so much FUD that none of this is believable without a source posted. 

Example the only thing I can currently find on profit margins for EVs is as follows and Mercedes DOES NOT have a listing.

Charted: Tesla's Unrivaled Profit Margins (visualcapitalist.com)

Actually Mercedes-Benz hit 6,000 Euro per unit in 2022:

14,809,000000 Euros in net profit

Sold 2,456,063 units

6,029 Euros per unit.

[David]

59 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Actually Mercedes-Benz hit 6,000 Euro per unit in 2022:

14,809,000000 Euros in net profit

Sold 2,456,063 units

6,029 Euros per unit.

NO THIS IS FUD AGAIN, you are taking the Profit for the whole company that includes cars, services, loans, etc. and saying that makes it $$$$$ per car of profit and that is NOT how accounting works.

EBIT is an acronym for earnings before interest and taxes, and it is used to measure a company's management of profitability. Just as its name implies, it is the amount of profit before interest expenses and tax payments are deducted. This is the whole company of all divisions.

You have to actually look at the car sales without the financing department of auto loans or service sector that includes parts, repairs, etc. or all the other little bits. 

We could do this with GM and give them a HUGE per Auto profit. 

Or better yet, I could go the other way in pointing out that the profit Tesla is making on their EVs is propped up by HUGE Regulatory Credits that were sold to other auto companies like the Dodge Division for the polluting Charger/Challenger.

In 2022, 1.8 billion of pure profit was booked by selling Regulatory Credits to Stellantis.

Tesla Regulatory Credits Revenue Boosts Profits And Margins | Fundamental Data And Statistics For Stocks (stockdividendscreener.com)

Accounting can manipulate any numbers to look good, that does not mean a company is growing or healthy. Tesla as I already posted produced many unsold EVs to play this 4% growth game when in reality they are looking at a -1% for Q1 2023.

[smk4565]

Tesla just cut prices again, $1,000 to $5,000 depending on model.  The other guys are raising prices, pretty predictable how this will turn out.