Stop the Lie!

YES, THIS WILL EAT F150 Sales. I am betting that 1/3 on the high end, 1/4 on the low end of F150 buyers would have bought a nice Ranger if it was still around as not everyone needs a full size pickup truck. I know many coworkers who ended up buying older used Rangers or Mazda B2000 as they live in the city and only needed a mini pickup truck for running to Home Depot.

My gut tells me that if you go back and look at GM full size truck sales, they also declined when the mid size twins came out.

• Colorado was only out of production for 1 year; you're not going to see a Silverado sales drop there.

• 33% of the high end and 25% off the low end is a crapton of volume when you're talking about 8xx,xxx units/yr. You're overestimating the move to the Ranger- it's not enough to move the needle on the F-Series. I'd never touch a mid-size truck, even if I wasn't working out of one. And if "need" was the prime factor, there wouldn't be any luxury cars available anymore.

First-gen Colorado/Canyon stopped with 2012 model year.  Second-gen Colorado/Canyon came out for the 2015 model year.

OK, Wiki said "-2012, 2014-". MY2015 starts in fall of '14. Let's call it '2 years gone' then. Not really enough to chart major shifts, IMO; not like the Camaro's what- 7 year absence.
 

Interestingly, the old US Ranger went out of production the same year (2011) the current T6 generation of international Ranger started...

There are a lot of people who do not need an F-series, and will switch to a new Ranger sooner than later.  Same with any midsize vs. full size pickup trucks.  Perhaps Ford should build about 40% of all trucks they have as Rangers, just to see what happens.

49 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

There are a lot of people who do not need an F-series, and will switch to a new Ranger sooner than later.  Same with any midsize vs. full size pickup trucks.  Perhaps Ford should build about 40% of all trucks they have as Rangers, just to see what happens.

Ford is not going to see a 40 percent drop in F series trucks unless a nuclear winter takes out 40 percent of the population.

3 hours ago, dfelt said:

Stop the Lie!

YES, THIS WILL EAT F150 Sales. I am betting that 1/3 on the high end, 1/4 on the low end of F150 buyers would have bought a nice Ranger if it was still around as not everyone needs a full size pickup truck. I know many coworkers who ended up buying older used Rangers or Mazda B2000 as they live in the city and only needed a mini pickup truck for running to Home Depot.

My gut tells me that if you go back and look at GM full size truck sales, they also declined when the mid size twins came out.

People paying 60 grand for a King Ranch crew cab  are not going to be satisfied with a Mazda.

There seems to be this theory floating that a Ranger is just a smaller F-150 (and everyone should always applaud 'smaller'), but 'tis not the case. Again I say; if "need" drove vehicle sales, there'd be no luxury vehicles. Buh-buh Land Rover, et al.

In other words, regardless if people "need" an F-150, doesn't mean they don't WANT an F-150.

Plenty of people who only needed or wanted a mid size or Mini truck bought a base F150. Ford still sells tons of them and those are the ones that I bet would go to a nice ranger.

24 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Plenty of people who only needed or wanted a mid size or Mini truck bought a base F150.

How could anyone possibly quantify that?

7 hours ago, balthazar said:

How could anyone possibly quantify that?

   I suppose if you look at F150 sales numbers from 2011 and before and compare them to 2012 and forward you might see an increase in sales of base trims that *could* be previous Ranger intenders, but that would be pretty speculative and presumptive. 

I'd also assume some of those that wanted a Ranger bought a used Ranger instead.  Again, not easily quantifiable.

The Ranger sold in pretty good numbers most of it's life, those sales went *somewhere* from 2012 onward..

I think Ranger will dent F-150 sales more than vice-versa.

Bought a 2016 F-150. At the time, I wanted a smaller, more fuel efficient truck, but just didn't like the Colorado/Canyon, the earlier Ranger model and Dakota was long gone, and the Asian brands' mpg wasn't good enough for a small truck.  I love my truck, but, in many ways (e.g., parking, getting in/out), it's just too damn big for my purposes. I'm very likely to swing over to the new Ranger in a couple of years.

F-150/F-250/F-350. In the '90s, "F-Series" also included the F-450, not sure if that's the case on these numbers or if that changed.

'17 still hasn't returned to '04-05 numbers, when the Ranger was still in the picture, but the bottom line is that the volume numbers change too much to draw any conclusions.

Ford will make plenty of money on the Ranger and F150 both.

12 hours ago, balthazar said:

How could anyone possibly quantify that?

You can't. And what people want is irrelevant. I want the sixties Mustang Fastback to go back into production...but that ain't going to happen.

People pick from given real world options.

4 hours ago, Guest Garnermike said:

I think Ranger will dent F-150 sales more than vice-versa.

Bought a 2016 F-150. At the time, I wanted a smaller, more fuel efficient truck, but just didn't like the Colorado/Canyon, the earlier Ranger model and Dakota was long gone, and the Asian brands' mpg wasn't good enough for a small truck.  I love my truck, but, in many ways (e.g., parking, getting in/out), it's just too damn big for my purposes. I'm very likely to swing over to the new Ranger in a couple of years.

If anything Ford F series will steal from Ram and Silverado.

18 hours ago, dfelt said:

Stop the Lie!

YES, THIS WILL EAT F150 Sales. I am betting that 1/3 on the high end, 1/4 on the low end of F150 buyers would have bought a nice Ranger if it was still around as not everyone needs a full size pickup truck. I know many coworkers who ended up buying older used Rangers or Mazda B2000 as they live in the city and only needed a mini pickup truck for running to Home Depot.

My gut tells me that if you go back and look at GM full size truck sales, they also declined when the mid size twins came out.

I am afraid i don't agree with you, the Ranger won't put a dent into the full size market not one bit, i am buying a new pick up and there is NO savings whatsoever buying a mid size truck, in purchase price or fuel economy. TBH i would rather have a midsize but the cost is the same all around and the small truck does less so no until GM and other adjust the prices on these units they will only sell a few which is what's happening now.

Ford is already running counter-Ram ads, touting F-150 FE and towing.  I would still buy a Ram 1500 over an F-150 no contest... even with the silly dial shifter.  Ford must be feeling some drift toward Ram or they wouldn't feel the need to reply.  Suddenly the beer can Ford is the oldest fullsize out there.

31 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Ford is already running counter-Ram ads, touting F-150 FE and towing.  I would still buy a Ram 1500 over an F-150 no contest... even with the silly dial shifter.  Ford must be feeling some drift toward Ram or they wouldn't feel the need to reply.  Suddenly the beer can Ford is the oldest fullsize out there.

You and I would but enormous numbers of people prefer Ford. A marketing demographic of two (you and I) is quickly founded to zero by Ford.

I think Ford’s biggest problem is going to be the price. That is pretty high for the mid size truck, and I know for a fact most of the new Rangers built (for at least a good start) are going to be the higher trim levels, which will push most closer to 40k.

Either there are going to br some good lease deals or rebates out of the gate-or Ford is banking on Ranger/Bronco fever....

1 hour ago, daves87rs said:

I think Ford’s biggest problem is going to be the price. That is pretty high for the mid size truck...

But it's the same price as the toyoyo.

14 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Ford is already running counter-Ram ads, touting F-150 FE and towing.  I would still buy a Ram 1500 over an F-150 no contest... even with the silly dial shifter.  Ford must be feeling some drift toward Ram or they wouldn't feel the need to reply.  Suddenly the beer can Ford is the oldest fullsize out there.

Don't they do that all the time though? They were doing that ever since I can remember F-150 commercials(granted, that's not that long..probably 2015's).

That's how vehicles cycle.. The newest eventually becomes the oldest. Unless it's dodge and they're just always the oldest. 😂

Okay, I guess I remember older than that. I remember the whole EcoBoost commercials coming out so I guess that's around 2010.

The Ranger isn't going to eat into F-150 sales, it's going to pull from Mid-size SUVs. 

4 hours ago, balthazar said:

But it's the same price as the toyoyo.

With much worse resale.

11 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

The Ranger isn't going to eat into F-150 sales, it's going to pull from Mid-size SUVs. 

 

Buy the man a cigar. Methinks you are right.

3 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

With much worse resale.

There's no established resale- the '19 Ranger is brand new and the last newest one is a different generation and 7 years old by now. Toyoyo may turn out to have a better resale, but you dance with the spectre of much much more frequent & serious TSBs and recalls with the 'coma.
 

6 minutes ago, balthazar said:

There's no established resale- the '19 Ranger is brand new and the last newest one is a different generation and 7 years old by now. Toyoyo may turn out to have a better resale, but you dance with the spectre of much much more frequent & serious TSBs and recalls with the 'coma.
 

Historically though resale much higher with the Toyota product. Were I to buy an actual midsize truck Colorado.

^ So you have established (no Fords).
Resale is fine & good, but there's still living with the toyota in between purchase & sale.