2018 saw a continuation of near-record sales and large profits for automakers in the U.S., but that appears to be coming to an end. Bloomberg reports various factors are conspiring to end this trend such as increasing interest rates and the average price of a new vehicle hitting record highs. While some may point out that 2018 saw a 0.3 percent increase in vehicle deliveries (17.6 million according to AutoData), analysts point that this is due to the tax cuts brought by President Donald Trump last year and automakers selling more vehicles to fleets.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive said that the big U.S. automakers saw deliveries fall at a faster rate "in the last three months of the year than for all of 2018."
"For some automakers, the slowdown has already begun,” said Chesbrough.
Look at General Motors as an example. For the fourth quarter, GM reported a 2.7 percent drop in sales - 785,229 vs. 806,739 for 2017.
“We’ve had a gradually declining trend on retail even with the tax changes. That’s the kind of trajectory we would anticipate given continued headwinds on the economic side,” said Emily Kolinski Morris, Ford’s chief economist.
What are we expecting in terms of sales for the coming year? It seems everyone agrees that it will be at or under 17 million vehicles, but estimates vary widely with one predicting 16.5 million due to reductions in fleet purchases. Executives are quick to caution that sales won't implode this year. Scott Keogh, president and chief executive officer of Volkswagen of America said on a conference call that unemployment is low and consumer confidence is high. But the issue uncertainty with Keogh saying consumers are watching "interest rates rise and are wary of what’s been a volatile stock market of late."
“When the headlines say that the market has had the worst falloff since 2008, that will rattle consumer confidence,” he said.
Source: Bloomberg (Subscription Required)

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2018 saw a continuation of near-record sales and large profits for automakers in the U.S., but that appears to be coming to an end. Bloomberg reports various factors are conspiring to end this trend such as increasing interest rates and the average price of a new vehicle hitting record highs. While some may point out that 2018 saw a 0.3 percent increase in vehicle deliveries (17.6 million according to AutoData), analysts point that this is due to the tax cuts brought by President Donald Trump last year and automakers selling more vehicles to fleets.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive said that the big U.S. automakers saw deliveries fall at a faster rate "in the last three months of the year than for all of 2018."
"For some automakers, the slowdown has already begun,” said Chesbrough.
Look at General Motors as an example. For the fourth quarter, GM reported a 2.7 percent drop in sales - 785,229 vs. 806,739 for 2017.
“We’ve had a gradually declining trend on retail even with the tax changes. That’s the kind of trajectory we would anticipate given continued headwinds on the economic side,” said Emily Kolinski Morris, Ford’s chief economist.
What are we expecting in terms of sales for the coming year? It seems everyone agrees that it will be at or under 17 million vehicles, but estimates vary widely with one predicting 16.5 million due to reductions in fleet purchases. Executives are quick to caution that sales won't implode this year. Scott Keogh, president and chief executive officer of Volkswagen of America said on a conference call that unemployment is low and consumer confidence is high. But the issue uncertainty with Keogh saying consumers are watching "interest rates rise and are wary of what’s been a volatile stock market of late."
“When the headlines say that the market has had the worst falloff since 2008, that will rattle consumer confidence,” he said.
Source: Bloomberg (Subscription Required)

Quarterly:
General Motors Co. - Down 2.7% (785,229 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 2,954,037 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Monthly:
Jaguar Land Rover North America - Up 23.6% (14,079 Vehicles Sold This Month, 122,626 Vehicles Sold This Year)
FCA US LLC - Up 14% (196,520 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,235,204 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Kia Motors America - Up 10.2% (47,428 Vehicles Sold This Month, 589,673 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Nissan Group - Up 7.6% (148,720 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,493,877 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volkswagen of America - Up 5.8% (32,047 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,064 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mitsubishi Motors North America -  Up 5.7% (8,986 Vehicles Sold This Month, 118,074 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Porsche Cars North America, Inc. - Up 4.4% (4,086 Vehicles Sold This Month, 57,202 Vehicles Sold This Year)
American Honda Motor Co. - Up 3.9% (155,115 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,604,828 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Hyundai Motor America - Up 3% (65,721 Vehicles Sold This Month, 677,946 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Subaru of America, Inc. - Up 1.9% (64,541 Vehicles Sold This Month, 680,135 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Toyota Motor North America - Down 0.9% (220,910 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,426,672 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mazda North American Operations - Down 3.8% (25,870 Vehicles Sold This Month, 300,325 Vehicles Sold This Year)
BMW of North America - Down 4.4% (37,154 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,698 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz USA - Down 8% (36,254 Vehicles Sold This Month, 355,413 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ford Motor Company -  Down 8.8% (220,774 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,497,318 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volvo Cars of North America, LLC - Down 8.8% (8,826 Vehicles Sold This Month, 98,263 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Audi of America - Down 16% (22,675 Vehicles Sold This Month, 223,323 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Brands (Quarterly):
Buick - Down 13.7% (51,257 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 206,863 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Cadillac - Down 2.7% (41,462 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 154,702 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Chevrolet - Down 3.2% (531,985 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 2,036,023 Vehicles Sold This Year)
GMC - Up 3.5% (160,525 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 556,449 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Brands (Monthly):
Acura - Up 11.4% (16,774 Vehicles Sold This Month, 158,934 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Alfa Romeo - Down 2.7% (1,946 Vehicles Sold This Month, 23,820 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Audi - Down 16% (22,675 Vehicles Sold This Month, 223,323 Vehicles Sold This Year)
BMW - Up 0.3% (34,357 Vehicles Sold This Month, 311,014 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Chrysler - Down 28% (12,425 Vehicles Sold This Month, 165,964 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Dodge - Up 17% (32,528 Vehicles Sold This Month, 459,324 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Fiat - Down 44% (977 Vehicles Sold This Month, 15,521 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ford - Down 9.6% (209,248 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,393,731 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Genesis - Down 68.5% (614 Vehicles Sold This Month, 9,940 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Honda - Up 3% (138,341 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,445,894 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Hyundai - Up 5.6% (65,107 Vehicles Sold This Month, 679,127 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Infiniti - Up 10.3% (18,065 Vehicles Sold This Month, 149,280 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Jaguar - Up 1.4% (3,462 Vehicles Sold This Month, 30,483 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Jeep - Up 10% (80,449 Vehicles Sold This Month, 973,227 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Kia - Up 10.2% (47,428 Vehicles Sold This Month, 589,673 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Land Rover - Up 33% (10,617 Vehicles Sold This Month, 92,143 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Lexus - Up 0.2% (35,524 Vehicles Sold This Month, 298,310 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Lincoln - Up 8.5% (11,526 Vehicles Sold This Month, 103,587 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mazda - Down 3.8% (25,870 Vehicles Sold This Month, 300,325 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz - Down 9.1% (32,016 Vehicles Sold This Month, 315,959 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz Vans - Up 1.7% (4,116 Vehicles Sold This Month, 38,178 Vehicles Sold This Year)
MINI - Down 39.3% (2,797 Vehicles Sold This Month, 43,684 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mitsubishi - Up 5.7% (8,986 Vehicles Sold This Month, 118,074 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Nissan - Up 7.2% (130,655 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,344,597 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Porsche - Up 4.4% (4,086 Vehicles Sold This Month, 57,202 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ram Trucks - Up 10% (80,449 Vehicles Sold This Month, 597,368 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Smart - Down 26.5% (122 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,276 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Subaru - Up 1.9% (64,541 Vehicles Sold This Month, 680,135 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Toyota - Down 1.1% (185,386 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,128,362 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volkswagen - Up 5.8% (32,047 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,064 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volvo - Down 8.8% (8,826 Vehicles Sold This Month, 98,263 Vehicles Sold This Year)

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Quarterly:
General Motors Co. - Down 2.7% (785,229 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 2,954,037 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Monthly:
Jaguar Land Rover North America - Up 23.6% (14,079 Vehicles Sold This Month, 122,626 Vehicles Sold This Year)
FCA US LLC - Up 14% (196,520 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,235,204 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Kia Motors America - Up 10.2% (47,428 Vehicles Sold This Month, 589,673 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Nissan Group - Up 7.6% (148,720 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,493,877 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volkswagen of America - Up 5.8% (32,047 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,064 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mitsubishi Motors North America -  Up 5.7% (8,986 Vehicles Sold This Month, 118,074 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Porsche Cars North America, Inc. - Up 4.4% (4,086 Vehicles Sold This Month, 57,202 Vehicles Sold This Year)
American Honda Motor Co. - Up 3.9% (155,115 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,604,828 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Hyundai Motor America - Up 3% (65,721 Vehicles Sold This Month, 677,946 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Subaru of America, Inc. - Up 1.9% (64,541 Vehicles Sold This Month, 680,135 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Toyota Motor North America - Down 0.9% (220,910 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,426,672 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mazda North American Operations - Down 3.8% (25,870 Vehicles Sold This Month, 300,325 Vehicles Sold This Year)
BMW of North America - Down 4.4% (37,154 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,698 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz USA - Down 8% (36,254 Vehicles Sold This Month, 355,413 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ford Motor Company -  Down 8.8% (220,774 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,497,318 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volvo Cars of North America, LLC - Down 8.8% (8,826 Vehicles Sold This Month, 98,263 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Audi of America - Down 16% (22,675 Vehicles Sold This Month, 223,323 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Brands (Quarterly):
Buick - Down 13.7% (51,257 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 206,863 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Cadillac - Down 2.7% (41,462 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 154,702 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Chevrolet - Down 3.2% (531,985 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 2,036,023 Vehicles Sold This Year)
GMC - Up 3.5% (160,525 Vehicles Sold This Quarter, 556,449 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Brands (Monthly):
Acura - Up 11.4% (16,774 Vehicles Sold This Month, 158,934 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Alfa Romeo - Down 2.7% (1,946 Vehicles Sold This Month, 23,820 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Audi - Down 16% (22,675 Vehicles Sold This Month, 223,323 Vehicles Sold This Year)
BMW - Up 0.3% (34,357 Vehicles Sold This Month, 311,014 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Chrysler - Down 28% (12,425 Vehicles Sold This Month, 165,964 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Dodge - Up 17% (32,528 Vehicles Sold This Month, 459,324 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Fiat - Down 44% (977 Vehicles Sold This Month, 15,521 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ford - Down 9.6% (209,248 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,393,731 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Genesis - Down 68.5% (614 Vehicles Sold This Month, 9,940 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Honda - Up 3% (138,341 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,445,894 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Hyundai - Up 5.6% (65,107 Vehicles Sold This Month, 679,127 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Infiniti - Up 10.3% (18,065 Vehicles Sold This Month, 149,280 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Jaguar - Up 1.4% (3,462 Vehicles Sold This Month, 30,483 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Jeep - Up 10% (80,449 Vehicles Sold This Month, 973,227 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Kia - Up 10.2% (47,428 Vehicles Sold This Month, 589,673 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Land Rover - Up 33% (10,617 Vehicles Sold This Month, 92,143 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Lexus - Up 0.2% (35,524 Vehicles Sold This Month, 298,310 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Lincoln - Up 8.5% (11,526 Vehicles Sold This Month, 103,587 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mazda - Down 3.8% (25,870 Vehicles Sold This Month, 300,325 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz - Down 9.1% (32,016 Vehicles Sold This Month, 315,959 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mercedes-Benz Vans - Up 1.7% (4,116 Vehicles Sold This Month, 38,178 Vehicles Sold This Year)
MINI - Down 39.3% (2,797 Vehicles Sold This Month, 43,684 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Mitsubishi - Up 5.7% (8,986 Vehicles Sold This Month, 118,074 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Nissan - Up 7.2% (130,655 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,344,597 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Porsche - Up 4.4% (4,086 Vehicles Sold This Month, 57,202 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Ram Trucks - Up 10% (80,449 Vehicles Sold This Month, 597,368 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Smart - Down 26.5% (122 Vehicles Sold This Month, 1,276 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Subaru - Up 1.9% (64,541 Vehicles Sold This Month, 680,135 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Toyota - Down 1.1% (185,386 Vehicles Sold This Month, 2,128,362 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volkswagen - Up 5.8% (32,047 Vehicles Sold This Month, 354,064 Vehicles Sold This Year)
Volvo - Down 8.8% (8,826 Vehicles Sold This Month, 98,263 Vehicles Sold This Year)

Ford will soon be joining General Motors in reporting sales every quarter. Automotive News is reporting that Ford will transition to a quarterly call and release of sales numbers beginning in April. The company will still be proving monthly sales numbers to various data agencies.
"We feel it's kind of transitioning to more of an industry standard. We think the intense focus on month-to-month numbers is just not how we want to run the business. We believe quarterly will provide great transparency," said Mark LaNeve, Ford's vice president of U.S. marketing, sales and service during a call with analysts and the media.
Various analysts have cautioned that moving to quarterly reporting may lead "less transparency and more speculation and errors," especially if some automakers still report monthly.
Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)

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