No, The Model 3 Isn't An Upgrade To the Model S

Hope they survive....not optimistic.

I think many of the beta, bleeding edge buyers are done and now mainstream customers want the Tesla EV as a Tesla 3 price but at a feature function of Tesla S.

Next 2-3 years are going to be very interesting.

@balthazar

This article proves your point even further!!!

I concede ENTIRELY my position I held and Im more in line with yours!

What is troubling me more is this:

Quote

 

"We have seen some impact of Model S orders as a function of people being confused" that Model 3 is the upgrade to Model S, Musk said on a conference call.

Yes, it seems some of Tesla's prospective buyers believe the new Model 3 - the upcoming entry-level model - is the replacement for the Model S.

 

(Not the fact that the misconception exists)

But:

In today's so-called "information age" where information is literally at a touch of a button...people are MISINIMFORMED about ANYTHING MORE THAN EVER IN HISTORY OF MAN-KIND!!! (an exaggeration yes...its my dramatic Greek heritage!)

How the HELL could people be so misinformed is beyond my comprehension...

3 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

@balthazar

This article proves your point even further!!!

I concede ENTIRELY my position I held and Im more in line with yours!

 

What is troubling me more is this:

(Not the fact that the misconception exists)

But:

In today's so-called "information age" where information is literally at a touch of a button...people are MISINIMFORMED about ANYTHING MORE THAN EVER IN HISTORY OF MAN-KIND!!! (an exaggeration yes...its my dramatic Greek heritage!)

How the HELL could people be so misinformed is beyond my comprehension...

 

#FakeNews

Someone somewhere said this is the replacement and boom, Lemmings followed off the cliff of stupidity that a cheaper version of the Tesla S was coming with all the Feature / Functions of the S.

  Idiots! 

I just read a survey that 30 million people say their next car will be electric.  Might take years for those 30 million to buy cars but they are coming.

It is actually very possible that Tesla overtakes Lincoln and Cadillac in 2022 to become the top selling American luxury brand.

We live in a world where educated people refuse to vaccinate their kids because Jenny McCarthy says she read somewhere that it might be bad for them. 

I am suspicious the real reason is 'buyer confusion', as Musk claims. I tend to think Tesla buyers are solidly on the high side of average consumer knowledge- anything markedly different (as Tesla is WRT being an EV) fairly begs a high level of involvement.

What I do believe is more likely is that the Model 3 is cannibalizing the S already, because it's on the threshold of passing from vaporware to reality. ESPECIALLY if a vast swath of buyers are indicating they'll spend $45-55K for a "$35K" car... no doubt some potential S buyers are deciding they can live just fine with a 12-in shorter 'Model S Mini'.

My prediction is that the S is going to fall farther once the 3 is on the dealership floor... to the point that the assumed sales addition of the 3 is going to be a net lower. Couple that with the inevitable production delays of the 3 and Tesla will be way off their claim of 500K units in 2018.

- - - - -

However, if Tesla can get the bulk of 3 buyers in at $50K, perhaps the volume will provide economies of scale and a profit.
Next; probably should fast-track the next gen Model S, then worry about the Model Y after that.

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

We live in a world where educated people refuse to vaccinate their kids because Jenny McCarthy says she read somewhere that it might be bad for them. 

Jenny McCarthy is everything that is wrong with the country in a nutshell

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

I just read a survey that 30 million people say their next car will be electric.  Might take years for those 30 million to buy cars but they are coming.

It is actually very possible that Tesla overtakes Lincoln and Cadillac in 2022 to become the top selling American luxury brand.

Self levitating pigs are also a real possibility.  It might actually save our bacon in terms of luxury cars

17 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I am suspicious the real reason is 'buyer confusion', as Musk claims. I tend to think Tesla buyers are solidly on the high side of average consumer knowledge- anything markedly different (as Tesla is WRT being an EV) fairly begs a high level of involvement.

What I do believe is more likely is that the Model 3 is cannibalizing the S already, because it's on the threshold of passing from vaporware to reality. ESPECIALLY if a vast swath of buyers are indicating they'll spend $45-55K for a "$35K" car... no doubt some potential S buyers are deciding they can live just fine with a 12-in shorter 'Model S Mini'.

My prediction is that the S is going to fall farther once the 3 is on the dealership floor... to the point that the assumed sales addition of the 3 is going to be a net lower. Couple that with the inevitable production delays of the 3 and Tesla will be way off their claim of 500K units in 2018.

- - - - -

However, if Tesla can get the bulk of 3 buyers in at $50K, perhaps the volume will provide economies of scale and a profit.
Next; probably should fast-track the next gen Model S, then worry about the Model Y after that.

No, they will still be making the claim of 500k cars, it's just that it is going to be the self levitating pigs that are driving them.

Even if Tesla sells 200k cars and not 500k they are the top American luxury brand.

no one ordering the model 3 is confused...

buyers are just making the sensible connections that a) a decked out 3 is probably more satisfactory than a 'base' S, b) it's new and cool, and c) tesla's going to put everything they've learned from the S and X into the 3...

12 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Even if Tesla sells 200k cars and not 500k they are the top American luxury brand.

That fancy pill you swallowed is a hallucinogenic, apparently.

9 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

no one ordering the model 3 is confused...

buyers are just making the sensible connections that a) a decked out 3 is probably more satisfactory than a 'base' S, b) it's new and cool, and c) tesla's going to put everything they've learned from the S and X into the 3...

Maybe...we have yet to see this thing in production...

This substantiates my view on the matter:  Tesla lovers are extremely dim upstairs.

23 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Even if Tesla sells 200k cars and not 500k they are the top American luxury brand.

That fancy pill you swallowed is apparently a hallucinogenic.

6 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

This substantiates my view on the matter:  Tesla lovers are extremely dim upstairs.

People banking on an indefinite supply of fossil fuels even more so.

3 minutes ago, FAPTurbo said:

Given the general quality of dialogue here, one might rather ask why lead paint chips taste sweet and why certain posters mistook them for potato chips.

55 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Even if Tesla sells 200k cars and not 500k they are the top American luxury brand.

I have to disagree with you on the Top American Luxury Brand. Maybe a mid luxury brand, but not top. Having been in the Tesla and driven with a number of coworkers who have them, Cadillac, MB and BMW builds a far nicer auto.

30 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

People banking on an indefinite supply of fossil fuels even more so.

Given the general quality of dialogue here, one might rather ask why lead paint chips taste sweet and why certain posters mistook them for potato chips.

You could also say that it is wrong to think that Aluminum makes a good auto material.

I want to know why I haven't heard complaints about the Model S's door handles- the metal face of them is usually quite wavy and being chrome; quite noticeable.

6 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I want to know why I haven't heard complaints about the Model S's door handles- the metal face of them is usually quite wavy and being chrome; quite noticeable.

I will take a look at my partner's Model S to see if this phenomenon is present on his car. I will report on Saturday or Sunday.

I never noticed anything and he never told me about it.

8 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I want to know why I haven't heard complaints about the Model S's door handles- the metal face of them is usually quite wavy and being chrome; quite noticeable.

I have been having a pre WW2 classic fetish...those were Luxury cars, the Tesla is but a faint shadow of them in so many more ways than door handles.

1 hour ago, FAPTurbo said:

no one ordering the model 3 is confused...

buyers are just making the sensible connections that a) a decked out 3 is probably more satisfactory than a 'base' S, b) it's new and cool, and c) tesla's going to put everything they've learned from the S and X into the 3...

Logical.

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

I am suspicious the real reason is 'buyer confusion', as Musk claims. I tend to think Tesla buyers are solidly on the high side of average consumer knowledge- anything markedly different (as Tesla is WRT being an EV) fairly begs a high level of involvement.

What I do believe is more likely is that the Model 3 is cannibalizing the S already, because it's on the threshold of passing from vaporware to reality. ESPECIALLY if a vast swath of buyers are indicating they'll spend $45-55K for a "$35K" car... no doubt some potential S buyers are deciding they can live just fine with a 12-in shorter 'Model S Mini'.

My prediction is that the S is going to fall farther once the 3 is on the dealership floor... to the point that the assumed sales addition of the 3 is going to be a net lower. Couple that with the inevitable production delays of the 3 and Tesla will be way off their claim of 500K units in 2018.

- - - - -

However, if Tesla can get the bulk of 3 buyers in at $50K, perhaps the volume will provide economies of scale and a profit.
Next; probably should fast-track the next gen Model S, then worry about the Model Y after that.

Logical once more.

21 minutes ago, dfelt said:

I have to disagree with you on the Top American Luxury Brand. Maybe a mid luxury brand, but not top. Having been in the Tesla and driven with a number of coworkers who have them, Cadillac, MB and BMW builds a far nicer auto.

The tech is impressive but Tesla is Lincoln or Acura level at the very most.

17 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

The tech is impressive but Tesla is Lincoln or Acura level at the very most.

Exactly, they have pushed the envelope and surpassed everyone with their Tech, but the refinement still leaves much to be desired.

42 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

The tech is impressive but Tesla is Lincoln or Acura level at the very most.

Telsa sells $100k sedans, something Lincoln or Cadillac are not capable of.  Tesla also makes a car much faster than any Lincoln or Cadillac.  Based on performance and price point, and brand image, they mop the floor with Lincoln or Cadillac.  I don't think Tesla interiors are the end all be all, but they are on par or better than any Lincoln for sure, and I'd say better than most at Cadillac.   

3 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Telsa sells $100k sedans, something Lincoln or Cadillac are not capable of.  Tesla also makes a car much faster than any Lincoln or Cadillac.  Based on performance and price point, and brand image, they mop the floor with Lincoln or Cadillac.  I don't think Tesla interiors are the end all be all, but they are on par or better than any Lincoln for sure, and I'd say better than most at Cadillac.   

 

That last sentence is where you went off the rails. Tesla interiors still feel very kit-car and much of the switchgear is Chrysler based. The $100k Model S 100 has the same switchgear as a Chrysler 200

And... Cadillac does sell $100K vehicles, this has been pointed out repeatedly.

I just googled pics of the Model S interior. A few were prototype pics, but other were labeled '2013' and '2015'. Some issues visible of fitment and ergonomics, but would have to sit in one personally to make a judgement. I can tell you that I have a hard time getting past that tombstone screen plunked in the middle of the dash like it is. Overall, a nice-enough $60K interior, but it's not where a $100K interior should be (again: via pics).