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William Maley

Tesla Finally Reaches The 5,000 Model 3 Production Goal A Few Hours After the Deadline

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Tesla has finally done it. Over the weekend, the company hit their milestone of producing 5,000 Model 3s in a week only a few hours after the deadline set by CEO Elon Musk - the end of the second quarter. Two Tesla factory workers told Reuters that the 5,000th Model 3 cleared final inspection around 5:00 AM PDT.

“We did it!! We either found a way or, by will and inventiveness, created entirely new solutions that were thought impossible. Intense in tents. Transporting entire production lines across the world in massive cargo planes. Whatever. It worked,” said Tesla CEO Elon Musk in an email to employees.

“I think we just became a real car company.”

Reaching this goal was quite hard for the automaker. Numerous delays and production issues caused Tesla to push back production milestones on a seemingly regular basis. The company had to build a makeshift assembly line in a tent within the past month to help bolster production.

But can Tesla keep up this output? There are concerns they might not be able to do it. According to one worker, Tesla sent employees from other departments to the Model 3 production line to keep it going. This including shutting down parts of the factory such as the Model S production line.

“Reaching it is one thing,” said  Dave Sullivan, manager of product analysis for AutoPacific Inc to Bloomberg.

“Consistently producing 5,000 per week with outstanding quality is another.”

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters


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As much as I like the piss and vinegar that comes out of Musk, I have to question if they can keep this pace up and going with quality. 

Revisit in 30, 60 and 90 days to see if they do keep it up.

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Just look at the Model S & X monthly totals, the numbers are always swinging wildly up & down. I expect the same for the no-margin 3.

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They did it to prove a point. I don't think they'll keep it up consistently. Their build quality would suffer more than it already does. 

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3 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

They did it to prove a point. I don't think they'll keep it up consistently. Their build quality would suffer more than it already does. 

That is a nice little achievement.  Now somebody needs to buy Tesla out of Elon's hands STAT.  Toyota or a Chinese/Indian automaker will suffice.

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https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/02/elon-musk-model-3-tent-tesla/

This is interesting as they have some interesting figures as provided by Tesla. 20% of the Tesla 3 cars were produced in their fancy assembly line tent. Which was 5,031 cars built in a tent.

 

So musk tweeted this, but the facts boil down to the following:

As reported by Tesla today, Monday July 2nd, 28,578 Model 3's were produced in Q2 overshadowing S & X models which produced 24,761.

Q2 Productions up 55% over Q1

Delivery breakdown of Q2 40,740 autos:

Model 3: 18,440

Model S: 10,930

Model X: 11,370

Since July 2017 at the splashy hand over to the first customer event, Tesla has delivered a total of 28,386 Model 3 vehicles. Tesla says they will continue to ramp up to 6,000 model 3's a week by the end of July. Target delivery for Model S & X auto's is still at 100,000 by Dec 31st 2018.

Based on current numbers for Q1 & Q2 of S&X models, Tesla is looking at the following numbers:

Q1 S=11,730 + Q2 S=10,930 = 22,660

Q1 x=10,070 + Q2 x=11,370  = 21,440

First half S&X sales = 44,100

As we enter a slowing economy, I have to question Tesla being able to make up that roughly 22,000 shortfall in auto sales.

Model 3 numbers are as follows Q1 = 8,180 + Q2 = 18,440 = 26,620

Conservative if they can keep 5,000 a week production, means Q3 & Q4 will add 130,000 cars for the 26 weeks left in the year. If they can boost it to 6,000 a week by the end of July, they will hit 152,000 cars built.

I suspect that hitting 100,000 cars for the Model 3 is about as good as it will get for 2018 and if they can hit 100,000 for the S&X that is 200,000 auto's for the company. big improvement but not the millions made by other OEMs.

Bigger question, will they actually turn a profit?

http://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results

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When Toyota ran that plant it they could make 500,000 cars a year easily, 10,000 per week was no sweat.  So the capacity and size is there.  

This was a nice little accomplishment for Tesla, but can they do it every week and with quality.  Toyota produced more than this and at quality with no problem, and that was 10+ years ago, with better technology today, Tesla should be able to do that.  And hopefully they do.

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1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

When Toyota ran that plant it they could make 500,000 cars a year easily, 10,000 per week was no sweat.  So the capacity and size is there.  

This was a nice little accomplishment for Tesla, but can they do it every week and with quality.  Toyota produced more than this and at quality with no problem, and that was 10+ years ago, with better technology today, Tesla should be able to do that.  And hopefully they do.

Except Arrogant Musk does not want to follow what the auto industry has learned over the last 100+ years. His I can do it better without starting with what the auto industry has already learned and improved from there is his downfall.

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23 hours ago, dfelt said:

Except Arrogant Musk does not want to follow what the auto industry has learned over the last 100+ years. His I can do it better without starting with what the auto industry has already learned and improved from there is his downfall.

Pride goeth before the fall.

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On 7/2/2018 at 12:47 PM, Drew Dowdell said:

They did it to prove a point. I don't think they'll keep it up consistently. Their build quality would suffer more than it already does. 

Knowing how they run....they would end up having a "fire" sale.....😜

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