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Will Competition Destroy Tesla?


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Norway has been in the news lately and not just a little but across a wide range of news organizations. Norway has been very embracing of the move to EVs supporting just about every version that has come out from small EVs that would remind one of a Golf cart and illegal on the roads in the US to the luxury level of Tesla with the X and S auto's.

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Norway has even been leading the world in the change over of their countries taxi fleet to EVs. One benefit to the taxi owner is the ability to write off half of the auto cost in the first year and the rest in the second year as long as the taxi travels over 100,000 kilometers per year. This allows private taxi drivers to purchase their own luxury ride to use as their work tool every day.

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Tesla was the first to build out a very extensive network of charging infrastructure to support their auto's allowing owners to drive their EVs in any type of weather even very cold snowy winter.

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As anyone in sales would know and to help everyone else understand, single month sales, and quarterly sales sales cannot always clearly show a trend about the success of a company. Even bi-yearly sales numbers while getting close to be considered a trend by some is not enough to state that a company has been a long term success.

Tesla ever since they started to sell auto's in Norway back in 2009 with just 13 sold has pretty much had a captured market to themselves especially since Norway has been trying various ways to push a clean green agenda going back into the 1990's. Tesla sales spiked in 2019 at 18,798 EVs sold before plummeting as VW introduced the much more affordable ID.4 and other luxury makers such as Audi with their e-tron came on the market in 2020.

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As per the jalopnik story, Tesla did not sell many auto's in association with other auto choices till recently making the sample size very small in auto markets around the world. Norway then becomes an even more important picture on EV sales as a country that was in many ways the first to embrace EVs, will be the first to phase out all new ICE auto sales starting January 1st 2025. Currently contrast Diesel auto's that sold in 2011 with a 75.7% market share to only 8.6% market share in 2020.  A market where there are more EV options at various price points than any other market has transformed their auto market.

Lately, Tesla sales have not been that great and Ford Motor Company is off to a hot start with their Mustang Mach-e. Yes one can contribute this to the Ford EV being a new model but keep in mind that a year ago new auto sales had BEVs make up 43.1% of sales, this year, BEVs are averaging 60.4% of new auto sales with Ford having sold 1,384 Mach-e in May for a 10% share of Norways auto market. Toyota RAV4 hybrid is in second place and Skoda's electric Enyaq is in third. Currently in the top ten EVs sold in Norway, Tesla is coming in at 6th place.

Let's let the monthly numbers speak for what is being sold in Norway:

May 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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April 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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March 2021 top 10 best-selling auto's in Norway.

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We then have no numbers, but a list was produced of the top 10 auto sales and unlike March, Tesla was in 8th place for auto sales in February:

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The clear observation is that Tesla is NOT the dominant auto company in Norway and a concern for the CEO and company one would think. Clearly now that real competition is showing up, Tesla is going to have to address concerns about fit n finish, service, warranty issues, etc.

In 2019 Tesla dominated the market for BEVs:

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Per Norways largest news covering the auto industry, December pretty much saved the year, but even then shows some very interesting changes from 2019.

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This on top of the full 2020 year showing that Tesla is only #6 in auto sales in Norway.

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At this point, Tesla needs to deliver on a low end solution of BEVs for Norway and the world if they are to remain competitive and survive it would seem. This would be the time for a Model 2 and even maybe 1 to come out of Tesla giving low end solutions for auto buyers that currently cannot afford higher priced auto's.

Ford Is Beating Tesla In One Of The Most EV-Saturated Markets In The World (jalopnik.com)

• Norway: Tesla car sales 2009-2020 | Statista

Ford's electric Mustang tops Norway car sales in May | Reuters

Ford's electric Mustang tops Norway car sales in May | Nasdaq

Historic December saved car sales | Dn


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Interesting observation is that Mercedes-Benzes went on sale with their EQC and after two months of sales in the top 10 list, they dropped off for May. Makes one wonder about their tag line of Best or nothing at all! 🤔

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I think Tesla is working on a car smaller and cheaper than the Model 3 that will likely appeal to Europe and China as well.  But they have to get Cybertruck and the Semi and Roadster all out.   I don't think their R&D staff or manufacturing capacity can take on another volume car right now.

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5 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I think Tesla is working on a car smaller and cheaper than the Model 3 that will likely appeal to Europe and China as well.  But they have to get Cybertruck and the Semi and Roadster all out.   I don't think their R&D staff or manufacturing capacity can take on another volume car right now.

It seems they also need to get Texas to let them sell the auto without having to ship it out of state and back in via a very convoluted sales process that just adds to the money losing process.

With China online, California online, Nevada online and Germany supposedly close to coming online as well as Texas, one would think they could get all those going now, but it would seem money might be an issue for financing those auto options.

Let us also not forget that Tesla let go all of their PR department and it seems cut back to just about zero any marketing. Then you have service problems globally. Tesla might have stretched themselves way too thin. Eventually customers are gonna say screw Tesla, just go and buy from the Ford Dealer a Mach-e. I can get full service, warranty, etc. at my local dealership.

Makes ya go Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm 🤔

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13 hours ago, smk4565 said:

But they have to get Cybertruck and the Semi and Roadster all out.

Two out of the three are niche sales at best and the other will get waxed by REAL pick ups. Not sure how that helps them long term at all.

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2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Two out of the three are niche sales at best and the other will get waxed by REAL pick ups. Not sure how that helps them long term at all.

RIGHT! The Semi will change, but that is very long term, to quote @balthazar changing the trucking industry to pure electric will probably take till 2275 while new sales might end by 2050 based on countries that want auto's phased out by 2035/40 and commercial trucks by 2050 if it stands.

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There’s no way to legislate a ban that’s going to be massively counter to the market’s actual demographic. A 2035 IC ban in passenger vehicles will not stand.

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19 hours ago, David said:

It seems they also need to get Texas to let them sell the auto without having to ship it out of state and back in via a very convoluted sales process that just adds to the money losing process.

With China online, California online, Nevada online and Germany supposedly close to coming online as well as Texas, one would think they could get all those going now, but it would seem money might be an issue for financing those auto options.

Let us also not forget that Tesla let go all of their PR department and it seems cut back to just about zero any marketing. Then you have service problems globally. Tesla might have stretched themselves way too thin. Eventually customers are gonna say screw Tesla, just go and buy from the Ford Dealer a Mach-e. I can get full service, warranty, etc. at my local dealership.

Makes ya go Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm 🤔

Well the Cybertruck is designed to do 750,000 miles with no maintenance except tires, so you don't really need a dealership.   

Tesla has some issues and needs to get more models out and keep the existing ones updated.  However they aren't really at risk of losing customers, their owners are super loyal and they are gaining market share, not losing.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Well the Cybertruck is designed to do 750,000 miles with no maintenance except tires

Who told you that lie? Elon? Guess he left that little tidbit off of their other models, given their reliability record since day one, skipping the sheer bull$h! of thinking this thing is going to last that long without any maintenance outside of tires. That is literally the most absurd sales pitch I have ever heard. If I walked into a Tesla store and they told me that, I'd literally laugh myself right on out of there. 

 

And owners are not THAT loyal when said company still hasn't improved upon said reliability since day one.

Edited by surreal1272
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2 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Who told you that lie? Elon? Guess he left that little tidbit off of their other models, given their reliability record since day one. 

 

And owners are not THAT loyal when said company still hasn't improved upon said reliability since day one.

That is what it says online.  May or may not be true, we will see.  

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It was also 'designed to have bullet-proof glass', and we saw how that worked out.

cybertruck brings no paint options, the world's largest blind spots and the world's most inaccessible bed to the table.
Not sure very many people are actually 'going to see' by paying any money for one.

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

they are gaining market share, not losing.

Incorrect- they are gaining VOLUME, they are losing MARKET SHARE.

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1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

That is what it says online.  May or may not be true, we will see.  

Wow! The site says it huh? That’s about as convincing as the shatter proof glass that shattered upon first demo of it. 
 

Sorry if I am not convinced by something that is an obvious lie. There is no “we will see” here. It’s a certain lie. 

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

they are gaining market share, not losing.

Also a lie. 
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/tesla-heads-for-biggest-drop-in-3-weeks-on-market-share-loss

 

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2 hours ago, balthazar said:

It was also 'designed to have bullet-proof glass', and we saw how that worked out.

cybertruck brings no paint options, the world's largest blind spots and the world's most inaccessible bed to the table.
Not sure very many people are actually 'going to see' by paying any money for one.

Incorrect- they are gaining VOLUME, they are losing MARKET SHARE.

Tesla is gaining total market share.  Losing EV market share because there are more EV's but using EV market share only is a horrible metric, total market is what matters.  Ford could cancel all models but the F150, go from selling 2.5 million cars a year to 750,000 and gain 5% market share in pick ups and claim they gained pick up segment market share, but who cares if they just lost 1.75 million sales.  Have to look at whole market.

And the Cybertruck bed lowers in the rear, closer to the ground than any other pick up, so it is plenty accessible, actually the easiest to load on market because it comes with a ramp too.  

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

Wow! The site says it huh? That’s about as convincing as the shatter proof glass that shattered upon first demo of it. 
 

Sorry if I am not convinced by something that is an obvious lie. There is no “we will see” here. It’s a certain lie. 

Also a lie. 
F5E0015B-7130-4011-8927-B23477EC36A5.thumb.jpeg.c34aa415ea29a894fba16c1529f8606d.jpeg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/tesla-heads-for-biggest-drop-in-3-weeks-on-market-share-loss

 

EV market share doesn't matter.  Only total market share.  When Tesla sales are declining, while everyone else is growing, then they can worry.  

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4 hours ago, smk4565 said:

using EV market share only is a horrible metric, total market is what matters.

I don't disagree with this, but much of the industry reporting looks at it the other way (as BEV sales).

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12 hours ago, smk4565 said:

That is what it says online.  May or may not be true, we will see.  

🤔 Looking around and Tesla is NOT SAYING 750,000 miles of maintenance free driving.

Cybertruck | Tesla

Finally found the only places that mention that crazy figure and NO They do not quote Tesla, more of a Tesla Fanatic thinking Tesla can outlast everyone, but we have seen past and current quality and that is not happening with Tesla auto's.

The Tesla Cybertruck Isn’t A Pickup — It's Much, Much More | CleanTechnica

This is probably one of the best REALISTIC posts about Cybertruck. The person clearly states that the Heat Pump and Air Bladder system on the air suspension even if commercial grade will have to be replaced at 100,000 miles or at least rebuilt / serviced. Also an overall decent list of the service / replacement parts that would be needed on the Cybertruck.

CyberTruck longevity | Tesla Motors Club

Best part of this is that someone on the channel was stupid enough to say that Tesla's outlast all ICE. Another person posted a nice long list of competition trucks all between 461,000 and 872,000 miles on the odometer, verified via carfax listed for sale on autotrader at dealerships.

Hard to have a GM or Ford that clearly has outlasted any current Tesla and for sale.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, smk4565 said:

That is what it says online.  May or may not be true, we will see.  

We don’t have to see anything. 750K with zero maintenance is pure fantasy and pure marketing BS, like that bullet proof glass that shattered. It’s not even a debate as to its legitimacy except to someone like yourself. 

2 hours ago, David said:

Looking around and Tesla is NOT SAYING 750,000 miles of maintenance free driving.

Exactly. It doesn’t even mention that on Tesla’s OWN PAGE so unless SMK saw that there (while providing no proof of), it is pure bunk. Even if it is mentioned, it is pure bunk lol. 

11 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Only total market share

Then why did you emphasize that they had gained market share when they haven’t?

 

And what is “total market share” anyway? Just sounds like a convenient way to backpedal out of a lie to me. 

Edited by surreal1272
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12 hours ago, smk4565 said:

EV market share doesn't matter

Help us understand why it doesn’t matter? There is market share to be had with each type of vehicle (Pick Up, full size cars, compact CUVs, etc) and the fact is that Tesla is losing market share AND stock value because the competition is creeping up on them. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/tesla-stock-market-share-51622722044

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2 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Help us understand why it doesn’t matter? There is market share to be had with each type of vehicle (Pick Up, full size cars, compact CUVs, etc) and the fact is that Tesla is losing market share AND stock value because the competition is creeping up on them. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/tesla-stock-market-share-51622722044

The hey days of Tesla are behind them as more auto makers join the BEV market. Way superior options over Tesla.

That is not to say that I am not grateful for Tesla pushing the EV market and they do have pretty solid powertrains, but that is where it ends. You can buy Tesla Power Trains and battery packs from various EV parts sellers like EVwest and use them in your own conversions, but the rest of Tesla Auto's seem to have found no market beyond his fanatic fans.

Amazing the amount of parts from Tesla new, for sale. EV West - Electric Vehicle Parts, Components, EVSE Charging Stations, Electric Car Conversion Kits

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3 hours ago, David said:

The hey days of Tesla are behind them as more auto makers join the BEV market.

It's interesting. Tesla came in to a relative barren & new segment, sold more & more vehicles with no advertising, but spent years and years losing billions doing it. Now, competition is ramping up from all quarters, with Tesla never getting past being a relative boutique automaker and relying on ZE credits for profit.

Did Tesla actually have 'hey days'? 😉

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All the other car companies are still heavily ICE dependent.  Tesla is still ahead of the game since they are all EV, and all their money is going into EVs, they don't need to split R&D between ICE and EV.  And Tesla still makes the fastest cars, their infotainment and self driving tech is still better than most.  Tesla still outsells Lincoln, Cadillac, Acura and Infiniti in the same price segment, and Tesla does it with a smaller line up.  

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

All the other car companies are still heavily ICE dependent.  Tesla is still ahead of the game since they are all EV, and all their money is going into EVs, they don't need to split R&D between ICE and EV.  And Tesla still makes the fastest cars, their infotainment and self driving tech is still better than most.  Tesla still outsells Lincoln, Cadillac, Acura and Infiniti in the same price segment, and Tesla does it with a smaller line up.  

That is literally sidestepping ALL the other evidence showing their market share decreasing and their reliability still being a joke. Their infotainment system is a joke too and not reliable either unless your like having to replace that oversized tablet every five years or so. Hope they don’t put that into the “maintenance free” Cybertruck lol!

https://electrek.co/2020/07/04/tesla-updates-warranty-problematic-media-unit-touchscreen/

 

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows-why-automotive-grade-matters

 

And Tesla has outsold those you mentioned due to there being no competition from those companies in the EV realm. As it has been pointed out to you at least dozen times here, that is obviously changing.

Edited by surreal1272
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10 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

All the other car companies are still heavily ICE dependent.  Tesla is still ahead of the game since they are all EV, and all their money is going into EVs, they don't need to split R&D between ICE and EV.  And Tesla still makes the fastest cars, their infotainment and self driving tech is still better than most.  Tesla still outsells Lincoln, Cadillac, Acura and Infiniti in the same price segment, and Tesla does it with a smaller line up.  

Based on solid financial reviews, seems Tesla and the rest of the EV only companies are hurting. During the change over period, ICE will help finance BEV development and future growth.

Ford and GM is both a recommended investment of $1,000 by Motley Fool for future growth that will be better than any of the EV startups.

Tesla lost their biggest customer FCA that was buying Half a Billion a quarter in CO2 credits to offset the Ram, Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler lines. With the recent merge, they are now balanced by all the rest of the world tiny fuel efficient products.

Hard for any company to replace $500,000,000 million a quarter loss like that and it was the bulk that gave Tesla a Profit. Next Quarter could be a red blood bath at Tesla as Sales are NOT going up as you have stated. Seems lots of people are interested in buying EV's but would rather have an established company with dealerships, service centers and a known history compared to Tesla.

I do not see Tesla dying now, but as both Ford and GM roll out so many EV options over the next couple of years, this is going to hurt Tesla and we have all the other established auto makers also rolling out EVs.

End result is Tesla is going to have to really step up and compete otherwise alternative things happen.

GM and Ford Are Leaving Electric Vehicle Stocks in the Dust | The Motley Fool

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Seems the Hits keep coming to Tesla, per Musk, people who buy Tesla 3 & Y are not using their lumbar supports so bye bye they go but no price cut for the lost feature. Tesla has also removed all the radars in their auto's saying they can do full self driving with cameras only. So another safety feature Tesla talked about having Radar and Cameras in the past are gone and no you do not pay less.

Seems for a luxury auto company, they are discontenting their auto's fast and rising prices with the blame on suppliers.

Tesla Model 3 and Y Lose Adjustable Lumbar Due to "Almost no Usage" (motortrend.com)

Interesting how as pointed out by the writer, Lumbar is one of those things you usually set and forget as it is not going to be tweaked daily so of course not much reporting in the logs.

Tesla is starting to equal cheapness! 🤔

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WOW, Seems Tesla is going cheaper after downgrading chips and parts in China made auto's but not lower costs in relation to the cheaper parts per China Government. 

Tesla's Terrible Year In China Is Not Getting Any Better (jalopnik.com)

Tesla Is in Trouble With the Chinese Government After It Surreptitiously Downgraded the Chips in Some of Its Model 3s (businessinsider.com)

Now sales have tanked for China almost 50% drop in orders.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla's China Orders Fall Almost 50% in May | Benzinga

Stock taking the hit.

Tesla Stock Price Dip After Chinese Sales Decline | HYPEBEAST

Sales of alternative auto EVs are exploding, seems Tesla has a Problem.

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