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  • William Maley
    William Maley

    By William Maley •

    Bob Lutz Sees A Grim Future For the Automobile

      When did Bob Lutz become Nostradamus?

    Whenever Bob Lutz speaks, many people tend to listen as he a number of years of being in the automotive industry under his belt. Recently, Lutz wrote an editorial for Automotive News' Redesigning the Industry where he predicts we are “approaching the end of the automotive era,” within the next 20 years.

    “The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn’t matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation,” Lutz wrote.

    Lutz sees governments pushing for a 'no-human-drivers' mandate when it becomes clear that self-driving vehicles are much safer than vehicles operated by humans.

    "The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents."

    This according to Lutz will have catastrophic effects for the industry. Most of the driverless pods will be owned, operated and branded as "Uber or Lyft or who-ever else is competing in the market." Many automakers will be forced out of the business as people turn to sharing and not owning a vehicle. Some will remain, but acting as a supplier. Other parts of the business such as dealers, repair shops, and enthusiast magazines will fade away.

    "The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years."

    We're not fully on board with Lutz's train of thought. The time frame is a bit too soon as we are still on the ground floor when it comes to autonomous technology and the numerous hurdles that still need to be overcome. Plus, how will this driverless pod system work in rural areas?

    That isn't to say it will not happen. Elements of Lutz's viewpoint are coming into focus. For example, Waymo will not have any way for a human to intervene in emergency situations. 

    We highly recommend reading this piece.

    Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)

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    Robert Hall
    1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

    For the record, again, I dont feel like that is a "G6". Just because Pontiac decided to go alphanumerics on us...

    For myself, and you too I guess, a G6 is NOT a G6 but a Grand Am.

    So...all this talk...is for nada. We are back to square one! :dizzy:

    The G8 would have been cool badged as a Grand Prix or Bonneville...

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    A Horse With No Name
    3 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

    I dunno... I could have easily gone with a Bonneville, but there was always an Aurora in the same showroom that would grab my attention first. 

    I loved both from that era.

    3 hours ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

    The G8 would have been cool badged as a Grand Prix or Bonneville...

    A G8 with a full line up including convertible and Ute truck...yeah!

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    oldshurst442
    8 hours ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

    The G8 would have been cool badged as a Grand Prix or Bonneville...

    I see the G8 as a Grand Prix.

    Speaking of which, I saw a G8 today.

    Just the V6. Red. It looked gooooooood.

    Not too many of themm left in my neck of the woods. :(

    Edited by oldshurst442
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    ocnblu
    9 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

    I see the G8 as a Grand Prix.

    Speaking of which, I saw a G8 today.

    Just the V6. Red. It looked gooooooood.

    Not too many of themm left in my neck of the woods. :(

    We just had a V6 G8 in our shop.  Red.  Ridden hard and put away wet.  I was mad.

    And another thing... as has already been stated in here... people are morons when it comes to car maintenance, and they are progressively being weaned off of learning anything about what it really means to own a car.  We are going to see Bolts and Leaves, etc. and of the ilk riding around with bald/flat tires, windshields scratched by rubberless wiper blades, empty washer tanks, paper thin brake rotors, etc. ... because they have the idear stuck in their heads that they don't need to stop at service stations... they've been set free from MAINTAINING their cars!

     

    Edited by ocnblu
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    David
    6 hours ago, ocnblu said:

    We just had a V6 G8 in our shop.  Red.  Ridden hard and put away wet.  I was mad.

    And another thing... as has already been stated in here... people are morons when it comes to car maintenance, and they are progressively being weaned off of learning anything about what it really means to own a car.  We are going to see Bolts and Leaves, etc. and of the ilk riding around with bald/flat tires, windshields scratched by rubberless wiper blades, empty washer tanks, paper thin brake rotors, etc. ... because they have the idear stuck in their heads that they don't need to stop at service stations... they've been set free from MAINTAINING their cars!

     

    Already have that with idiot ICE owners. Cannot say how many lovely auto's are destroyed by morons especially it would seem catholics and mormons with their minivans full of family and yet rubber half way ripped on the wiper scratching the windows lack of any respect. 

    In this regards many people today see an auto regardless of the powertrain as a simple disposable appliance for getting from point A to point B.

    I feel it is only those of us that have a passion for the auto industry and sports car fans that seem to take care of their auto. Otherwise, less maintenance is good, as you pointed out, just changing windshield wipers seems to be a challenge let alone proper air in the tires and changing them once you hit 10% tread left.

    I see so many idiot auto's with bald tires. The Hotel I stayed at in North Carolina, Marriott at Triangle Research Park had bald tires on it and I pointed it out and the driver said not my problem or responsibility. So I told the manager when I got there that if a tire blows and I am in it, I will sue them. Interesting that it was gone later that day and the next day I saw it had new tires on it.

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    A Horse With No Name
    8 hours ago, ocnblu said:

    We just had a V6 G8 in our shop.  Red.  Ridden hard and put away wet.  I was mad.

    And another thing... as has already been stated in here... people are morons when it comes to car maintenance, and they are progressively being weaned off of learning anything about what it really means to own a car.  We are going to see Bolts and Leaves, etc. and of the ilk riding around with bald/flat tires, windshields scratched by rubberless wiper blades, empty washer tanks, paper thin brake rotors, etc. ... because they have the idear stuck in their heads that they don't need to stop at service stations... they've been set free from MAINTAINING their cars!

     

    Your argument is non unique.  People were doing that in the early 1970s when I first started to get interested in cars.

    2 hours ago, dfelt said:

    Already have that with idiot ICE owners. Cannot say how many lovely auto's are destroyed by morons especially it would seem catholics and mormons with their minivans full of family and yet rubber half way ripped on the wiper scratching the windows lack of any respect. 

    In this regards many people today see an auto regardless of the powertrain as a simple disposable appliance for getting from point A to point B.

    I feel it is only those of us that have a passion for the auto industry and sports car fans that seem to take care of their auto. Otherwise, less maintenance is good, as you pointed out, just changing windshield wipers seems to be a challenge let alone proper air in the tires and changing them once you hit 10% tread left.

    I see so many idiot auto's with bald tires. The Hotel I stayed at in North Carolina, Marriott at Triangle Research Park had bald tires on it and I pointed it out and the driver said not my problem or responsibility. So I told the manager when I got there that if a tire blows and I am in it, I will sue them. Interesting that it was gone later that day and the next day I saw it had new tires on it.

    Sadly threatening legal action is the only way to get people to change some times.

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    ocnblu
    1 hour ago, A Horse With No Name said:

    The Hotel I stayed at in North Carolina, Marriott at Triangle Research Park had bald tires on it...

     

    It's even worse than I thought if the HOTEL had bald tires on it!  :o

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    A Horse With No Name
    2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

     

    It's even worse than I thought if the HOTEL had bald tires on it!  :o

    Actually Dfelt had a van with bald tires, i had bed bugs and a gang member in a hotel threatening havoc...I am going to get intimately comfortable with my couch when i get home.

    Although my middle daughter just texted me that my cat is bleeding from the mouth so i may be going to the Veterinary ER room

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    David
    3 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

    Actually Dfelt had a van with bald tires, i had bed bugs and a gang member in a hotel threatening havoc...I am going to get intimately comfortable with my couch when i get home.

    Although my middle daughter just texted me that my cat is bleeding from the mouth so i may be going to the Veterinary ER room

    OUCH, wishing you all the best for the family cat. Dog person myself, but the animals are a family member and it sucks when they are hurt. Hope all goes well for you.

    5 hours ago, ocnblu said:

     

    It's even worse than I thought if the HOTEL had bald tires on it!  :o

    Yea, was one of those Fold extended vans with fronts slicks on, Figure they must have been racing it at the track. :P;) 

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